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(WASHINGTON) — Fresh inflation data set for release on Wednesday will provide an update on prices ahead of the holidays and help determine the outcome of an interest rate decision at the Federal Reserve slated for next week.

A monthslong slowdown of inflation came to an end when price increases accelerated in October, the most recent month for which data is available. The hot reading reversed some previous progress in lowering inflation and left price increases above the Fed’s target rate.

Economists expect consumer prices to have climbed 2.7% in November, which would amount to a slight uptick in price increases and mark two consecutive months of rising inflation.

The inflation gauge makes up the last piece of significant economic data before the Fed announces its next interest rate decision on Dec. 18. A finding of accelerated price hikes may give the Fed pause as it weighs interest rate cuts.

Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of more than 9% in June 2022, but price increases remain slightly above the target rate of 2%.

In recent months, the Fed has cut its benchmark rate three quarters of a percentage point, dialing back its yearslong fight against inflation and delivering relief for borrowers saddled with high costs.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point at its meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.

Over time, rate cuts ease the burden on borrowers for everything from home mortgages to credit cards to cars, making it cheaper to get a loan or refinance one. The cuts also boost company valuations, potentially helping fuel returns for stockholders.

In theory, the policy eases access to funds, stimulates economic activity and boosts demand. But the promise of bolstered consumer strength risks increased prices.

Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell voiced optimism about the prospects for achieving a “soft landing,” in which the U.S. averts a recession while inflation returns to normal.

“We continue to be confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and labor market can be maintained with inflation moving sustainably down to 2%,” Powell said.

The trajectory of inflation could shift in the coming months. Some economists expect President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals of heightened tariffs and the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants to raise consumer prices.

When asked about the Fed’s potential response to Trump’s policies, Powell said the central bank would make its rate decisions based on how any policy changes impact the economy.

“In the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions,” Powell said. “We don’t know what the timing and substance of any policy changes will be. We therefore don’t know what the effects on the economy will be.”

“We don’t guess, we don’t speculate and we don’t assume,” Powell added.

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(SEATTLE) — Boeing machinists overwhelmingly rejected a contract proposal this week, opting to extend a weekslong strike and send negotiators back to the bargaining table.

Sixty-four percent of workers voted against the new contract, according to the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), the union representing 33,000 Boeing workers in Washington, Oregon and California.

The outcome follows the resounding defeat of a previous proposal last month, which drew rebuke from more than 90% of union members.

The consecutive “no” votes set the stage for a standoff between Boeing and its workers that will strain the finances of both sides over the coming days and weeks, experts told ABC News. That financial pressure will push the dispute toward resolution but workers appear unlikely to budge without major concessions, they added.

“The union has sent a very clear message to Boeing that it will take significantly more to get a settlement,” Harley Shaiken, a professor emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley, who focuses on labor history, told ABC News.

The proposed contract would have delivered a 35% raise over the four-year duration of the contract, upping the 25% cumulative raise provided in a previous offer overwhelmingly rejected by workers in a vote last month. Workers had initially sought a 40% cumulative pay increase.

The proposal also called for hiking Boeing’s contribution to a 401(k) plan, but it declined to fulfill workers’ call for a reinstatement of the company’s defined pension. The contract would have included a $7,000 ratification bonus for each worker, as well as a performance bonus that Boeing had sought to jettison.

But union leaders said the concessions offered in the proposal were not enough to meet the demands of rank-and-file union members.

“This contract struggle began over ten years ago when the company overreached and created a wound that may never heal for many members,” said Jon Holden, president of IAM District 751 in Seattle, in a statement after the vote. “I don’t have to tell you all how challenging it has been for our membership through the pandemic, the crashes, massive inflation, and the need to address the losses stemming from the 2014 contract.”

Boeing did not immediately respond to ABC News’ request for comment.

Experts who spoke to ABC News forecasted a willingness on the part of Boeing to reenter talks and even revisit key parts of the offer.

Hours before workers cast ballots on Wednesday, Boeing released an earnings report showing the company had lost a staggering $6.1 billion over the most recent quarter, even though most of that period took place before the strike began.

The strike is expected to deepen that financial hole. A 50-day work stoppage would cost Boeing $5.5 billion, investment bank TD Cowen said in a report reviewed by ABC News at the outset of the dispute. So far, the strike has lasted 41 days.

“This rejection adds further uncertainty, costs, and recovery delays,” Bank of America Global Research said in a note to clients on Thursday. “We anticipate further concessions of wages will be required for a deal to pass.”

Financial stress will mount for workers as well, experts said.

Union members have received $250 per week from a strike fund, beginning in the third week of the work stoppage. That compensation marks a major pay cut for many of the employees.

“When strikes go longer than five or six weeks, the financial pressures really start to work on the union rank and file,” Robert Forrant, a professor of U.S. history and labor studies at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell, told ABC News.

While union members remain widely opposed to the latest contract offer, it drew greater support than the first one. That incremental progress may prompt Boeing to continue the strategy of upping worker pay while standing firm in its refusal to reinstate a defined pension, Ryan Stygar, a labor lawyer at San Diego, California-based Centurion Trial Attorneys, told ABC News.

Workers lost a traditional pension plan in a contract ratified by the union in 2014. The union’s demand for reinstatement of the pension may appeal more to longtime employees who feel they’ve lost retirement benefits than younger ones who’ve joined the company since its shift to a 401(k), Stygar said.

“Boeing’s strategy will be to try to exploit that generational divide,” Stygar said, noting that increased pay and a larger ratification bonus may entice younger workers to support a future proposal even if it omits pension reinstatement.

“As the strike goes on and Boeing’s losses accumulate, I think we will see more aggressive negotiation,” Stygar added, saying the standoff could stretch on for another two to four weeks.

“But I don’t have a crystal ball,” Stygar said.

ABC News’ Jack Moore and Ayesha Ali contributed to this report.

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(NEW YORK) — A surging stock market, low unemployment and robust growth — by just about every measure, the economy stood poised to deliver victory for Vice President Kamala Harris.

The exception, of course, was inflation, and it appears to have overshadowed other indicators. More than two-thirds of voters say the economy is in bad shape, according to the preliminary results of an ABC News exit poll.

Inflation likely shaped negative voter perceptions of the economy and helped fuel anger toward the party in power, just as it has done across the globe since the pandemic unleashed a wave of rapid price increases, experts told ABC News.

The political potency of inflation stems from the visceral, recurring sense of unease caused by high prices, experts added. That feeling leaves voters insecure about their future and desperate for a leader who can change the nation’s course.

“Inflation has a specific and special power in elections,” Chris Jackson, senior vice president of public affairs for Ipsos in the U.S., told ABC News. “It’s something people see in their face every day — every time they go to the grocery store or fill up their car.”

He added, “Inflation is present in people’s lives. It’s something they’re unhappy with and it’s something they rightly or wrongly blame on whoever is in charge.”

The pandemic set off an acute bout of inflation that impacted nearly every country across the world, when global supply chain blockages caused an imbalance between the availability of goods and the demand for them. In other words, too much money chased too few products.

Prices began to rise rapidly in the U.S. in 2021, catapulting the inflation rate to a peak of about 9% the following year. Inflation soared even higher in many other countries, including the likes of Brazil and England, where leaders faced an angry electorate.

In Brazil, where President Jair Bolsonaro cut taxes on fuel and electricity in an effort to slash prices over the months preceding an election that concluded in October 2022, the nation nevertheless replaced him with a leftwing challenger.

Earlier that year, in England, Prime Minister Liz Truss responded to the highest inflation in four decades with an economic policy centered on tax cuts and energy price controls. Her tenure in office lasted just 44 days before market reaction and political disarray led to her stepping down.

The post-pandemic pattern has exemplified a high rate of leadership change amid inflation crises around the world over the last half century, according to a study by Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy firm. Examining 57 inflation shocks since 1970, the firm found government turnover in 58% of cases.

Further, when there was an election during or within two years of an inflation shock, it led to a change in government in roughly three out of every four instances, according to Eurasia Group.

“We’re seeing this trend on jet fuel after the pandemic,” said Robert Kahn, the managing director of global macro-geoeconomics at the New York-based Eurasia Group. “The pandemic inflation shock contributes to a sense of instability and a loss of confidence among people in their governments.”

Carola Binder, an economics professor at the University of Texas at Austin who studies the history of inflation in the U.S., characterized recent anti-incumbent sentiment in a slightly different way: “When people are experiencing inflation and suffering from it, they want to have someone or something to blame.”

Inflation has cooled dramatically over the past two years, now hovering near the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. Even so, that progress hasn’t reversed a leap in prices that dates back to the pandemic. Since President Joe Biden took office in 2021, consumer prices have skyrocketed more than 20%.

The potential role of inflation in the U.S. election owes to a typical lag between when inflation comes down and when consumers acclimate to new price levels, since a lower inflation rate does not mean prices have come down but rather that they have begun to increase at a slower pace, experts told ABC News.

“When inflation comes back down, the prices of many critical items remain high, especially for people who are stretched and living paycheck to paycheck,” Kahn said.

Consumers will likely acclimate to current price levels over the coming months, but voters will remain sensitive to inflation, experts said.

President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals of heightened tariffs and the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants risk rekindling rapid price increases, some experts said.

When asked about whether inflation could reemerge as an important issue ahead of the next midterm elections in 2026, Jackson said: “If Republicans shoot themselves in the foot, absolutely.”

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