Stocks tick lower after Trump vows to hit Iran ‘extremely hard’ in coming weeks
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, March 31, 2026 in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Stocks ticked lower in volatile trading on Thursday after President Donald Trump delivered a televised address vowing to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the coming weeks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 75 points, or 0.1%, after opening down by 600 points, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.06%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.1%.
Each of the major indexes tumbled more than 1% in early trading, but they quickly recovered most of those losses.
The rollercoaster trading followed losses across Asian and European markets. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index slipped 2.3% and the pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.6%.
Oil prices, meanwhile, surged as traders feared a persistent supply shortage amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. U.S. oil prices climbed more than 10% on Thursday, registering about $111 a barrel.
Gasoline prices in the U.S. ticked up to $4.08 on average per gallon, marking a leap of $1.09 over the past month, AAA data showed.
Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Trump voiced mixed messages about his plans for the Middle East conflict. He said Iran is no longer a threat to the U.S. and the war in Iran is “nearing completion.” However, he added, the U.S. plans to continue striking Iran over the next two or three weeks.
“We’re going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong,” Trump said.
The trading volatility on Thursday interrupted an upswing for markets earlier in the week. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared more than 1,100 points, adding another 220 points on Wednesday as traders anticipated Trump may signal an off-ramp from the war in his evening remarks.
Since the war with Iran began on Feb. 28, Trump has issued conflicting signals about the expected duration of the war. On several occasions, stocks have climbed or fallen as markets weighed the implications of Trump’s comments.
The war prompted Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global oil supply.
The vast majority of fuel delivered through the strait is bound for Asia, placing the heaviest pressure on energy supply in that continent. Since oil and gas are sold on a global market, however, the shortage has sent prices rising for just about everyone.
On Wednesday night, Trump urged other countries to take responsibility for reopening the strait.
“The countries of the world that do receive oil through the Hormuz Straight must take care of that passage,” Trump said. “We will be helpful, but they should take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on.”
A potential U.S. exit from the war without ensuring that the strait is open could cast uncertainty over the path to a resumption of normal tanker traffic and a remedy for the current global oil shortage.
Ships are anchored along the shoreline of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, April 22, 2026 in Bandar Abbas, Iran. (Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Thousands of canceled flights in Europe over a spike in jet fuel prices. An energy emergency declaration in the Philippines. A two-week school holiday in Pakistan to conserve fuel used by commuters.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran triggered dramatic steps in a slew of countries bent on weathering one of the worst oil shocks in history, stoking concern by some about a possible global recession.
Economists disagree about whether the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz will ultimately drive the world’s economy into a downturn, in part because the duration of the waterway’s effective closure remains murky. The outcome holds implications for the livelihoods of billions of people and the performance of companies big and small across the globe.
Some analysts said they fear the oil shortage will soon become so dire that crude prices could rise sharply driving up costs for an array of goods and hammering shoppers. The fallout could squeeze businesses and shrink growth, they said.
Others proved more optimistic, pointing to a smaller rise in oil prices than some feared and a recent track record of economic resilience in the face of trade wars and other turmoil. A worldwide downturn, they said, would require a much more prolonged closure of the strait.
“The longer this drags on, the costlier it becomes,” Ryan Sweet, chief global economist at Oxford Economics, told ABC News.
Still, Sweet added: “Whether or not this will cause a global recession, it’s premature to say.”
The conflict, which began on Feb. 28, prompted Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global supply of oil and natural gas.
The vast majority of oil that passes through the strait is bound for Asian markets. But since oil prices are set on a global market, prices have climbed for just about everyone as buyers chase fewer barrels of crude.
On Tuesday, Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran, averting a resumption of wide hostilities, although the move left the strait under Iran’s effective control. The U.S., meanwhile, has mounted a blockade of Iranian ports in the strait, squeezing a key source of government funds derived from oil exports, while exacerbating the global petroleum shortage.
The Brent futures price, the benchmark index for global oil trading, registered at about $106 a barrel on Friday. That price stood about 50% higher than its pre-war level.
Higher oil and gasoline prices risk a pinch at the pump, as well as additional costs for just about every product delivered across the globe on trucks or ships that run on diesel fuel.
“Oil feeds into inflation, which reduces raw purchasing power — how much bang for their buck people have,” Sweet said. “That slows the economy.”
Still, oil prices remain below the highs reached after some previous economic shocks. In 2022, the price of Brent crude surged above $139 per barrel in March, just weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. During the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. gasoline prices shot up as high as $147 a barrel.
Some economic forecasts issued in recent weeks projected that global economic growth could escape the crisis relatively unscathed, as long as the war reaches a resolution in short order and oil prices avoid a steeper climb.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) last month predicted that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth would “remain broadly stable” at 2.9% in 2026. That forecast matched projections issued by the OECD in December, before the war.
The OECD touted strong tech investment and lower-than-expected tariffs, citing “carry-over from robust outcomes in 2025.”
Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that GDP growth would register at a solid pace of 3.1% in 2026, noting that the global economy had withstood “higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty last year.”
The forecasts from the OECD and IMF worked under the assumption of a resolution to the conflict by the middle of this year, acknowledging the impact could worsen if it stretches on for longer.
Some economists, by contrast, consider the economic threat a more urgent risk.
Paul Krugman, an economics professor at the City University of New York Graduate Center and a former columnist at the New York Times, criticized the IMF projection on Substack on Monday, faulting the group for “seriously underestimating how badly the global economy could be hit.”
“In my view, a full-on global recession is more likely than not if the Strait remains closed for, say, another three months, which seems all too possible,” he said.
Rosier forecasts fail to adequately factor in the risk of a significant rise in oil prices over the near term, Krugman said, warning of widespread “demand destruction” as oil becomes increasingly scarce. Under such a scenario, a surge in oil prices would make it unaffordable for many buyers, forcing them to find alternatives or forgo energy use altogether.
Technical definitions vary about what constitutes a global recession, but the gist is a period of sluggish or negative economic growth. For the World Bank, a global recession amounts to a contraction in global per capita GDP; while the IMF considers GDP growth below 2% sufficient to warrant the label of a recession.
A six-month impasse in the strait could push global oil prices as high as $190 in August, Oxford Economics said in a blog post last month. That price shock would send global inflation to 7.7%, near its peak in 2022, the independent economic advisory firm said.
“But unlike 2022, when the global economy kept growing through the price shock, the severity of this disruption tips the world into outright contraction,” Oxford Economics added.
In addition to its optimistic baseline projection, the IMF issued a downbeat prediction in the event of a more severe disruption of oil markets that stretches into next year. Under those circumstances, the global economy “would come close to experiencing a recession,” the IMF said, noting that it defines a global recession as annual GDP growth below 2%.
Growth below 2% has happened four times since 1980, the group said.
Across the board, economists acknowledged a high degree of uncertainty as the Iran war unfolds. Plus, some said, the negative effects will be unevenly distributed, hitting harder in low-income countries as well as those who depend on oil that passes through the strait.
While the full extent of economic wreckage remains unknown, the prospect of an extended global impact is all but certain, Sweet said.
“This will take a long time to get back up to resembling anything close to normal,” he added.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, March 31, 2026 in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Stocks tumbled worldwide on Thursday after President Donald Trump delivered a televised address vowing to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the coming weeks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 600 points, or 1.3%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 1.6%.
The selloff followed losses across Asian and European markets. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index slipped 2.3% and the pan-European STOXX 600 fell 1.3%.
Oil prices, meanwhile, surged as traders feared a persistent supply shortage amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. U.S. oil prices climbed more than 10% on Thursday, registering at $112 a barrel.
Gasoline prices in the U.S. ticked up to $4.08 on average per gallon, marking a leap of $1.09 over the past month, AAA data showed.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
