Black Friday online shopping expected to hit record high, data shows
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(NEW YORK) — Online shoppers set a record high on Thanksgiving, paving the way for gangbusters performance on Black Friday, Adobe data showed.
Digital spending on Thanksgiving jumped 5% from a year earlier, totaling $6.4 billion and exceeding Adobe’s expectations, the firm said.
The company also expects Black Friday shoppers to set a new record, outpacing last year’s total by more than 8%.
Adobe attributed the strong performance on Thanksgiving to better-than-anticipated discounts, especially for electronics. Discounts also touched an array of products from furniture to appliances to toys.
“Given the strength of Thanksgiving deals, Adobe is adjusting its discount forecast for the big shopping days coming up,” Adobe said in a statement to ABC News. “Deals are now expected to be on par with the elevated levels seen in the last holiday shopping season.”
A surge in the popularity of AI retail assistants also contributed to the nationwide shopping spree, Adobe said. AI-driven traffic to online sellers soared 725% compared to last year, the firm said, stemming primarily from chatbots designed to aid consumers.
Shoppers who arrived at a retail website from an AI service were 54% more likely to make a purchase than those who did not, Adobe said.
“The magnitude of discounts was the big story on Thanksgiving yesterday, as retailers leaned into delivering great deals to drive consumer demand online,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, told ABC News in a statement.
“This was further propped up by impulse-led mobile shopping and the use of generative AI which assisted shoppers in locating the best deals, two trends that helped deliver higher-than-expected overall spend on Thanksgiving,” Pandya added.
The early returns for the holiday shopping season arrive at a wobbly moment for the U.S. economy.
Inflation has picked up in recent months, putting price increases a full percentage point above the Fed’s target of 2%. Meanwhile, hiring has slowed, posing a risk of an economic double-whammy known as “stagflation.”
Alongside those headwinds, consumer spending among middle- and low-income Americans has slowed, triggering warnings from restaurant giants such as McDonald’s and Chipotle. A report this month showed consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest point since a peak of pandemic-era inflation in 2022, University of Michigan data showed.
Retailers hope shoppers defy these trends over the holiday season, when spending typically surges. The outcome could hold significant stakes for the wider economy, since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
(NEW YORK) — Car buyers may face elevated prices and a shortage of some vehicles due to a supply chain snarled by tariffs and challenges accessing crucial materials, some industry experts told ABC News.
A shortage of aluminum halted production at plants operated by Jeep and Ford earlier this month, pausing the output of some Jeep SUVs and Ford trucks, the Wall Street Journal reported. Meanwhile, a trade spat between the U.S. and China has raised questions about the availability of semiconductors, a critical part at the center of a pandemic-era supply shock.
Those disruptions follow far-reaching U.S. tariffs that have hit foreign automakers and added complications for domestic companies long-intertwined with manufacturers in Canada and Mexico.
The headwinds swirling in the auto industry could make it more difficult for consumers to find their desired vehicle at an affordable price, but carmakers may opt to absorb potential added costs and ease pain for buyers, some experts said. For now, they noted, uncertainty about the level of supply disruption leaves the outcome unclear.
“You start to roll all of this together and it does get significant,” Peter Morici, a professor emeritus at the University of Maryland’s School of Business, told ABC News. “My feeling is that there just have been too many disruptions for this not to affect the availability of automobiles if this goes on long enough. This question is whether it will.”
Stellantis, the parent company of Jeep, declined ABC News’ request for comment. Ford did not respond to the request.
Steep tariffs of 25% on vehicles imported into the U.S. went into effect in April, hiking costs for foreign-made cars, SUVs, minivans, cargo vans and light trucks. Within hours of the policy rollout, Ferrari said it would raise prices by as much as 10% for some models to compensate for the tariffs.
Widespread tariff-driven price increases have never materialized, however.
The policy largely exempted vehicles covered by a free trade agreement between the U.S. and Canada known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. For such cars, the tariffs only apply to the value of their non-U.S. content, a fraction of the overall cost, the White House said.
Some trade agreements with other nations resulted in lower auto tariffs, including deals with top car exporters Japan and the European Union. Last week, Trump extended a rebate for U.S. automakers meant to cushion the blow of tariff-related costs.
Still, top automakers tallied hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff-related expenses. Those costs risk colliding with concerns over the availability of aluminum and semiconductors, some experts said.
“The fact that it’s all coming at them is a challenge for automakers,” Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds, told ABC News, noting the companies had yet to pass along the costs to consumers in the form of higher prices.
“We haven’t seen a lot of impact of tariffs; we haven’t seen a lot of impact of the supply chain. That doesn’t mean we won’t eventually,” Caldwell added.
Earlier this month, China significantly tightened its restrictions on rare earth elements, which make up a key input in semiconductors found in an array of products from cars to home appliances.
The move prompted President Donald Trump to threaten 100% tariffs on all China-made goods next month. Beijing has publicly stood firm on the policy, leaving the two sides at an impasse with massive implications for U.S. automakers.
“The semiconductor is worrisome because it’s in so many things in the car. It’s not just in a body panel but it could be in the seats, the entertainment system — anything basically,” Caldwell said.
To be sure, the ultimate consumer impact of supply chain disruption remains uncertain, experts said. Carmakers may continue to absorb tariff-related costs in an effort to maintain price levels and protect their share of the market, they added.
“I see manufacturers absorbing more of the pain in the short term so they don’t lose customers,” Joseph McCabe, president and CEO of advisory firm AutoForecast Solutions, told ABC News.
Even so, the cloudy forecast should nudge some buyers to move forward with a planned purchase instead of holding out for better conditions, Caldwell said.
“It’s probably a good idea to keep your eyes open for deals,” she added. “I wouldn’t hesitate to buy earlier rather than thinking, ‘Maybe in the future it will be a better time to buy.’ I’m not sure it will be.”
Morici, of the University of Maryland, agreed. “If you want to buy a car in the next month, you should do it — if you can get a good deal,” Morici said.
(NEW YORK) — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday is set to unveil its latest decision on the level of interest rates, hoping to guide the economy through a topsy-turvy stretch of slow hiring and rising inflation.
The high-stakes announcement marks a flashpoint in the monthslong pressure campaign directed at the Fed by President Donald Trump.
In recent weeks, Trump has moved to fire one member of the Fed’s board of governors and secure Senate confirmation for another. Both officials are on track to be among the 12 policymakers who will cast votes on the interest-rate decision, though their status remained uncertain days before the Fed meeting.
The race to reshape the Fed comes after Trump railed for months against the central bank and its Chair Jerome Powell for declining to heed his call for lower interest rates. In July, Powell stressed the importance of political independence, saying it allows central bankers to make “very challenging decisions” based on “data.”
Still, the central bank is widely expected to deliver the policy shift long-sought by Trump, though the size of the rate cut will all but certainly fall short of Trump’s desired outcome.
Powell recently hinted at the possibility of a rate cut, appearing to indicate greater concern for flagging employment growth than for elevated prices. Investors peg the chances of a quarter-point rate cut at about 96% and a half-point cut at nearly 4%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
In a social media post on Monday, Trump reiterated his criticism of Powell, saying the Fed chair “MUST CUT INTEREST RATES, NOW, AND BIGGER THAN HE HAD IN MIND.”
Five meetings and nine months have elapsed since the Fed last adjusted interest rates. The federal funds rate stands between 4.25% and 4.5%, preserving much of a sharp increase imposed in response to a pandemic-era bout of inflation.
In recent months, the economy has suffered a sharp hiring slowdown alongside an uptick of inflation, setting the conditions for what economists call “stagflation.”
The economic conditions have put Fed policymakers in a bind. If the Fed raises interest rates as a means of protecting against tariff-induced inflation, it risks tipping the economy into a downturn. On the other hand, if the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy in the face of a hiring slowdown, it threatens to boost spending and worsen inflation.
Last month, Powell said the central bank faces a “challenging situation,” putting pressure on both sides of the Fed’s dual mission to maximize employment and control inflation.
Still, Powell said, the “balance of risks appears to be shifting” in light of a hiring slowdown made clear in a weak jobs report earlier this year that included sharp downward revisions of job gains over recent months.
Trump recently moved to fire board member Lisa Cook, who sued Trump over her attempted ouster, saying the decision violated her legal protections as an employee at the independent federal agency. Trump said he removed Cook over mortgage fraud allegations against her.
Federal law allows the president to remove a member of the Fed board “for cause,” though no president has attempted such a removal in the 112-year history of the central bank.
Last week, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction requiring the Fed to let Cook continue serving in her role as a governor of the Federal Reserve System as her lawsuit moves through the courts.
Days later, the Trump administration filed a request with an appeals court asking to remove Cook by Monday, before the scheduled vote on interest rates. That day, an appeals court rejected Trump’s bid, clearing the path for Cook to vote at the Fed meeting. Trump may appeal the ruling to the Supreme Court.
Last month, Trump called on Cook to resign on the same day that Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, posted on X part of an Aug. 15 letter sent to U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi accusing Cook of falsifying bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, “potentially committing mortgage fraud,” the letter stated.
In a statement provided to ABC News at the time, Cook said she learned from the media about Pulte’s letter seeking a criminal referral over the mortgage application, which predated her time with the Federal Reserve.
“I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet,” Cook said in the statement last week. “I do intend to take any questions about my financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve and so I am gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts.”
The Senate voted 48-47 on Monday to confirm White House economic adviser Stephen Miran’s nomination to serve as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, paving the way for Miran to cast a vote on interest rates.
Miran has vowed to safeguard central bank independence but said earlier this month that he does not plan to resign from his position within the Trump administration. Miran is filling a vacancy created by the early retirement of Fed board member Adrianna Kugler, whose term was set to end in January.
Miran said he plans to take an unpaid leave of absence from his current role. Miran reached the decision after “advice from counsel,” since his term on the Fed board would last four months, Miran said at a Senate hearing this month.
(NEW YORK) — U.S. employers added far fewer jobs in 2024 and early 2025 than previously thought, indicating the labor market may have been significantly weaker than initial estimates had suggested.
The U.S. economy added 911,000 fewer jobs over the 12 months ending in March than previously estimated, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Tuesday. The figure, which exceeded economists’ expectations, marks the largest revision ever recorded.
The revision, a routine step in the compilation of government labor statistics, assesses monthly survey estimates alongside state unemployment data. The fresh data comes weeks after President Donald Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer in response to a weak monthly jobs report.
The scale of the revision announced on Tuesday exceeds a downward reduction in hiring estimates last year that has drawn criticism from Trump in recent weeks.
In that case, the BLS said in August 2024 that U.S. employers had hired 818,000 fewer workers over a previous year-long period. When Trump fired McEntarfer last month hours after the release of monthly jobs data, he mentioned frustration with the annual revision issued in 2024.
“I believe the numbers were phony just like they were before the election, and there were other times,” Trump said, pointing to the revision in the jobs numbers last year that he claimed, without evidence, was an attempt to benefit Democrats heading into the election.
The BLS, a government agency within the Department of Labor, tracks a host of key economic indicators, including widely anticipated hiring and inflation reports released each month.
The BLS releases an initial estimate of its jobs report based on an initial tranche of data, but the agency often revises the figure in subsequent months as households and businesses return additional data. After a slow-moving process of compiling state unemployment data, the agency releases an additional revision teasing out accurate findings.
McEntarfer, a Biden appointee who was confirmed by the Senate in 2024, had served in the federal government for two decades.
“It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy,” McEntarfer said in a social media post after her dismissal. “It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.”
William Beach, a former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who was appointed by Trump, condemned McEntarfer’s dismissal.
“The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau,” Beach posted on X.
McEntarfer did not respond to an earlier ABC News request for comment.
