Federal Reserve set to make interest rate decision days after election of Trump

(NEW YORK) — Borrowers have waited years for a sign of relief from high interest rates for everything from credit card loans to mortgages. The wait may come to an end this week.

Investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a meeting on Wednesday. The move would dial back the central bank’s benchmark rate from a 23-year high, reversing some of the rate hikes initiated three years ago in an effort to fight inflation.

Questions, however, remain about the size of the rate cut, what it means for borrowers and how it may impact the 2024 presidential race.

Experts spoke to ABC News about what to know ahead of the potential interest rate cut.

Why is the Fed expected to cut interest rates?

In 2021, the Fed began aggressively raising interest rates in an effort to bring inflation under control. The policy has largely succeeded. Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, though it remains slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.

Meanwhile, the job market has slowed. A weaker-than-expected jobs report in each of the last two months has stoked concern among some economists. The unemployment rate has ticked up this year from 3.7% to 4.2%.

Those trends have shifted the Fed’s focus away from controlling inflation and toward ensuring a healthy job market.

In theory, lower interest rates help stimulate economic activity and boost employment; higher interest rates slow economic performance and ease inflation.

“The Fed has been very much guided by data,” Anastassia Fedyk, a professor of finance at Haas Business School at the University of California Berkeley, told ABC News. “ Inflation numbers in the last few months have started looking good, and things are not looking so hot in terms of the jobs reports.”

What will the size of the rate cut be?

The chances of an interest rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week are all but certain, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.

Market observers are divided nearly down the middle over whether the Fed will impose its typical cut of a quarter of a percentage point, or opt for a larger half-point cut. The tool estimates the probability of a quarter-point cut at 51% and the odds of a half-point cut at 49%.

“There is that much uncertainty because it seems not all Fed officials are of the same opinion,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at accounting firm EY, told ABC News.

Some Fed policymakers appear to prefer a gradual approach to rate cuts in light of easing inflation and a resilient, albeit weakened, labor market, Daco said. By contrast, others seem to favor a large initial cut that would help avert a more severe job market slowdown.

What would a rate cut mean for credit card fees, mortgage rates?

An interest rate cut would mark a major milestone as the Fed shifts toward a lowering of rates and an easing of costs for borrowers, experts said. Still, they added, the initial rate cut would not substantially lessen loan payments.

“In the grand scheme of things, it’s peanuts,” Daco said.

Nevertheless, some loan relief has already emerged in anticipation of a gradual lowering of interest rates over the coming months.

Mortgage rates fell last week to their lowest level since April 2023, Freddie Mac data showed. The 10-year treasury yield, which helps set the level of many consumer loans, has plummeted nearly a percentage point since July.

“This is a sign of a trend that’s going to start, but it’s going to take a lot longer and be milder than an immediate transition,” Fedyk said.

What would a rate cut mean for the November election?

Typically, lower interest rates make borrowing less expensive for businesses and consumers, propelling companies to invest in new projects and everyday people to stretch for bigger purchases. That all should help propel economic growth and buoy consumer optimism.

In turn, an economic surge could benefit the incumbent party, dispelling concern about a recession and improving the livelihoods of everyday people, some analysts previously told ABC News.

However, the benefits of a forthcoming rate cut could prove more limited, since rate moves take hold after a period of delay that can last months, analysts said.

The most recent Democratic presidential candidate who failed to win reelection, Jimmy Carter, lost his bid amid a historic series of rate hikes at the Fed.

A rate cut would deviate from the policy approach taken by the Fed prior to many recent presidential elections, a Reuters analysis found. Policy rates were left unchanged for six to 12 months before the 2020, 2016, 2012 and 2000 U.S. presidential elections, according to Reuters.

To be sure, the Fed says it bases its decisions on economic conditions and operates as an independent government body.

When asked about the 2024 election at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “We don’t think about politics.”

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(NEW YORK) — After once deriding cryptocurrency as a “scam,” former President Donald Trump on Monday formally threw his support behind World Liberty Financial, a crypto venture whose business model remains largely unclear but has already drawn scrutiny as a potential ethics headache for his administration if he returns to the White House in January.

Joined Monday by his two adult sons and others involved in the fledgling business, including billionaire donor Steve Witkoff, Trump declared in a livestream on X that “crypto is one of those things we have to do,” and suggested that he would work to limit regulation of the industry if elected.

“Right now, you have a very hostile [Security and Exchange Commission] … they’ve been very hostile toward crypto,” Trump said. “My attitude is different.”

Details about the venture, including Trump’s role and potential compensation, remain unclear. The company’s website, which bears an image of a backlit Trump speaking at a podium, suggests the platform will have its own crypto token, called $WL, and aspires to “empower our users to operate their finances … with no direct oversight of any government agencies or officials.”

Industry experts said the website provides few details about the company — including what it will offer, who will have access to its profits, and how the Trump family stands to make money from it. James Butterfill, the head of research at CoinShares, a digital asset management firm, told ABC News that the website contains little more than “buzzwords.”

Government ethics watchdogs consulted by ABC News were quick to point out potential conflicts of interest posed by a candidate for president launching or becoming otherwise involved with a new business within weeks of Election Day — particularly in an industry as polarizing and unregulated as crypto, in which users directly exchange digital currencies without the oversight of banks or the government.

Jordan Libowitz, a spokesperson for Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, or CREW, said a future Trump administration would have wide latitude to impact crypto policy — and Trump’s own personal stake in the industry could potentially rub up against the best interests of the country.

“We’re still in the Wild West with crypto. It’s clear there is going to be some kind of regulation, but to what extent and how friendly they are to the industry, we don’t yet know,” Libowitz said. “The president obviously appoints the people in charge of that.”

Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, rejected any suggestion that Trump’s role in World Liberty Financial could pose an ethical dilemma if he’s reelected, calling Trump “the most ethical president in American history.”

“When President Trump first ran for office, he stepped away from his very successful and lucrative businesses because the job of saving America was the most important job he’d ever have,” Cheung said in a statement to ABC News. “Before he entered the White House, he ensured everything was done within the ethics guidelines set forth.”

In addition to Trump’s adult sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, who have for months been promoting World Liberty Financial on social media, a so-called “white paper” first reported by CoinBase indicated that Trump’s youngest son, Barron, 18, would also play a role in the firm.

Witkoff, who appeared Monday on the X livestream, said he introduced the Trumps to two other partners in the venture, Zak Folkman and Chase Herro, both of whom have a colorful business history.

Herro, who previously called himself a “dirtbag of the internet” at a crypto conference in 2018, has said he has made millions from an ecommerce business after spending three years in jail for selling drugs when he was in high school. Folkman, who first joined forces with Herro in the ecommerce business more than a decade ago, has reportedly previously taught classes on “how to date hotter girls.”

On ABC’s Good Morning America on Tuesday, Witkoff — a longtime friend to Trump and one of his campaign’s biggest financial supporters — downplayed any potential conflict posed by Trump’s foray into crypto.

“If the president is elected, which I expect him to be, then everything that he — all of his of his ownership, his businesses, will be put in some sort of a trust.” Witkoff said. “His children, I would assume, will be involved in running it. And I doubt that, therefore, that there is any conflict.”

But Danielle Brian, the executive director of the Project On Government Oversight, said that would be nothing more than “window dressing.”

“A trust managed by family members will not eliminate the conflict of interest created by a sitting president owning any business,” Brian said.

Trump’s announcement on Monday marked his transition from a vocal skeptic of digital currencies to one of the industry’s most enthusiastic proponents. As president, he complained on Twitter that crypto markets were “highly volatile and based on thin air.” In 2021, shortly after leaving the White House, Trump called cryptocurrencies a “scam.”

But during his 2024 bid for the White House, Trump has cozied up to crypto interests.

In May, his campaign said it would begin accepting contributions in cryptocurrency. Trump has regularly hosted industry enthusiasts at his properties and, in July, at the annual Bitcoin Conference, he pledged to make the U.S. the “crypto super-power” of the world.

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(NEW YORK) — Throughout the country, once bustling business districts have turned into ghost towns. The pandemic has shown that many jobs can be done remotely. Now some major U.S. cities are breathing new life into empty office buildings by converting them into housing. Notable cities that are part of this trend include New York, Austin, Cleveland, San Francisco, and Boston.

The office vacancy rate is 20.1% in the U.S., according to Moody’s. That’s a 30-year high, with more than 900 million square feet of office space empty — enough to fill New York City’s One World Trade Center 300 times.

Amazon, Citigroup, Walmart, and UPS are among the major companies now requiring employees to spend more time in the office. Some companies are pulling out all the stops to entice workers back. Amenities may include massage rooms, health care services, and on-site personal gyms.

However, most experts agree that hybrid and remote work is here to stay. “Companies don’t need office space in the way that they needed office space 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 50 years ago,” Evan Horowitz, executive director of The Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University, said. “Remote work has just transformed that landscape.”

Major cities across the country, including Boston, Austin, and Chicago, are seeing office vacancies at or near record highs. In San Francisco, more than 22% of offices are currently empty, a significant increase from about 9% in 2019.

Some cities are now at risk of falling into what is known as the “economic doom loop.” High vacancy rates can cause property values to plummet, decreasing tax revenue. This decrease in revenue affects funding for essential services such as schools, police and sanitation, ultimately making these cities less desirable places to live.

Horowitz says Boston is more vulnerable to falling into an “economic doom loop” than other major cities because of its unique s tax structure.

“Boston is closer to crisis mode than other cities because it is so dependent on taxes from commercial real estate, twice as dependent as virtually any other city in the country,” Horowitz said. The loss of commercial tenants is having a ripple effect on area businesses.

When Dave Savoie bought his favorite bar and grill, Silvertone, in 2016 he said it was like a dream come true.

The downtown Boston establishment was popular with the business crowd. Office workers made up 50% of Savoie’s customers, but all that changed with the COVID-19 pandemic.

“I used to call them suits,” Savoie said. “You know, the office guys, the finance guys. And this was their place. [Now] they work from home. If people come to the city now, they work a maximum three days a week.”

It proved too much for Silvertone and, after 27 years, eight of them under Savoie’s ownership, the bar announced “last call” in May.

Boston’s Mayor Michelle Wu, who is up for reelection next year, is taking steps to address the situation. She is implementing tax breaks and zoning changes to transform unwanted office space into much-needed housing.

“We have about 500 housing units that are now in the pipeline to be converted out of formerly vacant office buildings,” Wu told ABC News. “We’re taking city buildings like libraries that need renovations and adding housing on top of that and making it faster than ever before through zoning and other city regulatory processes to get your building built and to get those shovels in the ground. The more that downtown is a residential, thriving, busy neighborhood, just like every other one of our neighborhoods, the more everyone benefits.”

The idea is that business districts will be reimagined as vibrant 24/7 neighborhoods that seamlessly blend work, living, dining and entertainment. This holistic approach aims to create a dynamic community where daily life and work coexist, fostering a rich, interconnected lifestyle.

“There are lots of ways to build a vibrant downtown that doesn’t involve the central role of office buildings,” Horowitz said. “It could be apartments, it could be lab space. There are lots of other things you can do with land that makes people want to go downtown and enjoy themselves.”

Many cities are already converting office space into housing, with Cleveland leading the way — 11% of its office inventory is currently undergoing this transformation. Similar projects are also taking place in Cincinnati, Houston, and New York, where the iconic Flatiron office building is set to be transformed into luxury condominiums. “This is a challenge that’s affecting every city in America,” Wu said. “And in Boston, we’re showing that it’s also an opportunity.”

That “opportunity” is something David Greaney is seizing on. At a time when many real estate investors are looking to sell their office buildings, Greaney and his firm Synergy are buying them up, at a deep discount. Synergy currently owns 35 properties in the Greater Boston area – four of them were bought in just the past 12 months.

Greaney says the worst is over in terms of office vacancies, and he is positive about the future of cities. “The great thing about cities is that cities evolve, and I certainly think that our cities will evolve,” Greaney said. “You may see more residential uses, more hospitality or institutional uses, but the office component of downtowns, I believe, will continue to be a very big factor.”

Working out of one of the same buildings Greaney recently bought, small business owners and brothers Michael and Emilio Ruggeri are betting on a comeback for Boston’s downtown.

For three decades they have been serving breakfast and lunch to the office crowd at their Archie’s NY Deli. Office workers accounted for nearly 80% of their business pre-pandemic, but that number has since dwindled to about 50%.

“We’ve been doing more deliveries,” said Emilio Ruggeri. “The construction guys have actually kept us going.”

They’ve also reduced their staff, trimmed their menu and shortened their hours to make ends meet, confident that things will turn around.

“I’m an eternal optimist,” said Michael Ruggeri. “The buildings are way too expensive to just stay empty. Someone’s going to take over the space, so we’re hopeful.”

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