Inflation data to show whether prices continued cooldown
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(NEW YORK) — A fresh inflation report on Wednesday will show whether price increases have continued a monthslong cooldown as they fall toward normal levels.
Economists expect prices to have increased 2.6% over the year ending in August. That figure would mark a notable slowdown from the year-over-year rate of 2.9% recorded in the previous month.
After six consecutive months of slowing price increases, inflation stands at its lowest level since March 2021. However, inflation remains nearly a percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
The new price data on Wednesday holds major implications for the course of widely expected interest rate cuts.
The chances of an interest rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week are all but certain, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment. Market observers are divided over whether the Fed will impose its typical cut of a quarter of a percentage point, or opt for a larger half-point cut.
So far this year, the job market has slowed alongside cooling inflation. That trend was underscored last week by a weaker-than-expected jobs report, though employers added a solid 142,000 jobs. The unemployment rate has ticked up this year from 3.7% to 4.2%.
The Fed is guided by a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. In theory, low interest rates help stimulate economic activity and boost employment, while high interest rates slow economic performance and ease inflation.
Recent trends have shifted the Fed’s focus away from controlling inflation and toward ensuring a healthy job market.
Speaking at an annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the “time has come” for the Fed to adjust its interest rate policy.
At previous meetings, Powell said the Fed needed to be confident that inflation had begun moving sustainably downward to its target rate of 2% before instituting rate cuts. Last month, Powell appeared to indicate that the Fed had achieved that objective.
“My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path down to 2%,” Powell said.
Since last year, the Federal Reserve has held interest rates at their highest level in more than two decades. High borrowing costs for everything from mortgages to credit card loans have helped slow the economy and lower inflation, but the policy risks tipping the U.S. into a recession.
Last month, Goldman Sachs economists raised the probability of a U.S. recession in the next year from 15% to 25%. However, economists disagree about whether current economic conditions warrant serious concern.
Vice President Kamala Harris delivers an address on Artificial Intelligence policy at the U.S. embassy, Nov. 1, 2023, in London. (Carl Court/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — After several of its brightest stars declared support for former President Donald Trump last month, Silicon Valley has now come out in force for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Though Silicon Valley remains a stronghold of support for Democrats, the Biden’s administration’s hawkish approach to tech has alienated many in the industry, and in recent months a number of high-profile entrepreneurs and investors including Elon Musk have backed Trump. But Harris, a Bay Area native with ties to the industry, could forge a stronger relationship with the Valley and has already received pledges of support from a new group called VCs for Harris — representing hundreds of prominent venture capitalists.
Leslie Feinzaig, the venture capitalist who started VCs for Harris, said she recently wrote a pledge and bought a URL to host its site without expecting much.
Within days, billionaire entrepreneur and television personality Mark Cuban and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman joined the group.
“I basically haven’t slept since,” Feinzaig said.
Feinzaig’s efforts have resulted in more than 700 pledges of support for Harris, and could signal a friendlier relationship between the vice president and the Valley than Biden has had.
“Silicon Valley had no friends in Washington during the Biden administration,” said Georgetown Law Center professor and technology regulation expert Anupam Chander. “You have the Department of Justice, which has filed those antitrust lawsuits. You have the White House and the U.S. Trade Representative, who have been retreating from efforts to ensure free flow of data across the world.”
And, of course, Chander said, you have Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan, who has gained an army of fans — and detractors — for leading an ambitious effort to regulate giants such as Amazon and Meta.
The Biden administration did, however, work to pass the CHIPS Act, which allocated billions to onshore the production of semiconductors used in many electronics — an achievement celebrated by the leading tech industry advocacy group as “a major victory.”
Still, leading venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, the co-founders of investment fund Andreessen Horowitz, cited concerns about Biden’s policies in a podcast episode announcing their support for Trump.
“The future of our business, the future of technology, new technology and the future of America is literally at stake,” Horowitz said.
Despite continuing frustrations with the Biden administration, according to industry insiders, Democrats appear to retain the support of most in Silicon Valley.
“Many of us are frustrated with Biden administration’s sort of anti-technology, anti-business stance,” said Silicon Valley investor and entrepreneur Merci Grace.
Grace said voting against Trump would be “pretty easy” for her and most of her peers, 70 or 80 percent of whom she estimates will ultimately support Harris.
Feinzaig said some of the high-profile figures in the industry who have come out in support of Trump “weren’t speaking for the full industry.”
Still, Trump has made inroads in certain corners of Silicon Valley. In June, a fundraiser hosted by tech billionaire David Sacks in coordination with Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance — a former venture capitalist with ties to another prominent conservative tech mogul, Peter Thiel — raised $12 million for the former president’s campaign.
Trump has also received endorsements from a number of prominent entrepreneurs in the cryptocurrency sector, promising in his 2024 platform to “end Democrats’ unlawful and unAmerican Crypto crackdown.” Also, he spoke at the annual Bitcoin Conference in late July.
The former president has taken a stern stance on big tech companies, calling them “too big” and “too powerful” in a July interview with Bloomberg, but saying “I don’t want to destroy them.”
Some expect Harris, meanwhile, to assuage concerns in the Valley by taking a more dovish approach than the Biden administration, though they say her policy views on tech remain an open question.
“I would expect to return to a more technocratic stance,” said Rob Merges, a law professor at U.C. Berkeley who spent several decades working in the tech industry. “A traditional Clinton, Obama — you know, friendly to the benefits of technology, reasonable in regulation, and cautious to not go too far in any one direction.”
Chander said he thinks Harris is “someone who recognizes the importance of innovation, but also worries about some of the harms that might follow.”
But, he noted, “because Harris didn’t go through a regular primary, we haven’t seen her stake out positions on some issues.”
Since Biden announced he would not seek reelection on July 21, Harris has not mentioned the tech industry in public campaign remarks and her campaign declined to comment on whether she would keep Khan at the head of the FTC (high-profile donors including Hoffman have recently urged her to do the reverse).
But the Valley needs no introduction to the vice president.
Harris dealt with the tech industry as California’s attorney general and has headed some of the Biden administration’s efforts surrounding artificial intelligence, working with top AI companies to agree on voluntary guidelines for the responsible use of generative AI. The vice president’s brother-in-law, Tony West, also serves as chief legal officer for Uber, headquartered in San Francisco. In remarks about AI in November, she said she and Biden “reject the false choice that suggests we can either protect the public or advance innovation.”
Grace said she gets the sense that Harris is “a reasonable person who is very intelligent, and we can have a discussion with her.” She added that Trump “is just someone who you can’t trust.”
“It’s not worth the temporary alignment to make a little bit more money on top of the billions that you already have — to get in bed with someone who you can’t trust,” Grace said.
Feinzaig also shared her trust in Harris.
“I feel like we have a candidate that is listening,” Feinzaig said.
(NEW YORK) — Stock market turmoil earlier this month prompted some investors to ditch stocks in favor of an alternative typically viewed as safer but less exciting: bonds.
The renewed popularity of bonds follows months of heightened interest, since investors have sought to lock in high yields in anticipation of interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve, experts told ABC News.
Lower interest rates would push bond yields downward and raise the value of pre-existing bonds obtained at a higher rate of return.
A surge in bonds has also coincided with a perception among some investors that equities have become overpriced, experts said.
“Investors have been interested in locking in higher yields before interest rates go down,” Reena Aggarwal, A professor of finance and director of the Georgetown Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy, told ABC News.
Bonds are essentially loans made by investors to corporations or governments. The price of a bond moves in the opposite direction as its yield, or the amount of interest accrued by a bondholder. In other words, when bond yields go down, bond prices go up.
Yields are heavily influenced by interest rates set by central banks, since the cost of borrowing determines how much interest an investor can charge a government entity or corporation in exchange for his or her loan.
Starting in 2022, a series of interest rate hikes at the Fed sent bond yields surging. That meant investors could obtain relatively high rates of return at low prices, Adam Lampe, CEO of Mint Wealth Management, told ABC News.
“For the first nearly 20 years of my career, bonds were boring,” Lampe said. “In the last couple years we were able to buy a lot of bonds at discount.”
At the outset of this year, however, the Fed forecasted three interest rate cuts, citing progress in its fight to bring down inflation. But price increases accelerated over the early months of 2024, prompting the Fed to all but abandon those cuts.
In recent months, good news in the inflation fight has brought the Fed back to the brink of an interest rate cut. The expectation of a coming interest rate has added urgency to the bond market, Lampe said.
“The window is closing very quickly,” Lampe added. “We’re at the peak, so bond values have the potential to go down.”
The chances of an interest rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in September are all but certain, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment. Market observers are split roughly down the middle about whether the Fed will impose its typical cut of a quarter of a percentage point or opt for a larger half-point cut.
“The more that rates are cut, bond prices will go up higher but bond yields will go down lower,” said Aggarwal.
Bonds also offer investors a relatively safe option in the event of a possible recession, some experts said.
A disappointing jobs report earlier this month raised concern that the economy may be slowing down faster than previously known.
The unemployment rate has soared this year from 3.7% to 4.3%. That trend has triggered a recession indicator known as the “Sahm Rule,” which says that a rise of 0.5 percentage points in the unemployment rate within a 12-month period typically precedes a recession.
Bonds provide investors with fixed, predictable returns, sheltering them from a potential downturn in the stock market if economic performance cratered, Yiming Ma, a finance professor at Columbia University Business School, told ABC News.
“The economy is slowing down and the risk of a downturn is going up,” Ma said. “That is usually when investors want to seek something safer.”
The Rimac Nevera electric hypercar holds more than 20 performance records. — Rimac Group
(NEW YORK) — Mate Rimac has a tall order: trying to convince drivers that electric supercars are superior to combustion vehicles.
Rimac, the 36-year-old engineering savant from Croatia who started his namesake company 15 years ago, recently pulled the sheet of his latest creation: the Nevera R, an aerodynamically perfected supercar designed to hug every tight corner and give maximum driving pleasure. The performance numbers are nearly impossible to comprehend: 2,107 horsepower and a 0-60 mph time of 1.74 seconds.
This insanely powerful supercar is breaking industry records. There are, however, snags in Rimac’s master plan. He has acknowledged that turning enthusiasts to electric proselytes could take months, if not years.
Rimac spoke to ABC News earlier this month about the challenges of selling his seven-figure sports cars, taking over French marque Bugatti as CEO and why government officials are making a mistake by pushing electric-vehicle mandates. He’s also a big supporter of autonomous driving.
The interview below has been edited.
ABC News: You introduced the Nevera R electric hypercar to the world at Monterey Car Week. The horsepower that car produces — 2,107! — is mind-blowing. How did you accomplish this?
Mate: I started the company 15 years ago when I was like 20 years old in order to push the limits and show what technology can bring to the table … that the future of automotive is not going to be boring. And the whole goal, my whole focus of the company and of me the last few years, has been to achieve that. It’s not just the car. It’s building the capabilities, the company around it, to actually do it in Croatia, a country that has never built cars before.
The last 15 years of this journey has been leading up to developing this technology, the team, the resources, the factory, the equipment and actually a whole industry.
ABC News: Is horsepower the one metric that matters most to your customers?
Mate: No, absolutely not. It’s the whole package. So performance is being commoditized right now. More and more cars come to the market at a relatively affordable cost that offer quite good performance, incredible performance actually when you compare it to a few years ago when it was only reserved for extreme hypercars. It’s all about emotions and that’s always a challenge with electric cars: How do you convey emotion without the sound of a combustion engine? But everyone who tries a Nevera is like, “Yes, we can see that this car was developed by people who love cars, like proper car guys.” Despite being electric, the Nevera offers a lot of emotion. That’s the most important thing.
ABC News: And how exactly are you delivering that emotion?
Mate: Well, there’s different things. The Nevera has four electric motors that can do crazy drift modes and on a flip of a switch it’s like a track monster. Everything changes — the suspension, the power distribution, it goes from rear-wheel drive to all-wheel drive, it can adjust it exactly as you want. Like it gives a totally different experience.
Emotion for me is the ability to go sideways, to control the car, stuff like that. And we can do all of that with this car.
ABC News: Why are you limiting production of the Nevera R to 40 units? When does production begin?
Mate: The Nevera was 150 units, and the Nevera R is 40 additional. We want to keep exclusivity. The Bugatti Tourbillon is limited to 250 and we could have sold a lot more, but for us it’s important to have exclusivity and it’s also important for the value of the cars later.
We start production early next year and the cost of a Nevera R is 2.3 million euros.
ABC News: Here we are, talking about the electric Nevera R, an engineering triumph, but you made a comment this past spring that high-end buyers don’t want electric supercars. Is that still true? Are you having trouble selling the Nevera to enthusiasts?
Mate: I think electric cars, in any category, need to bring something special. Just making an car electric is not going to cut it. People are thinking, “Let’s just make an electric car and it will sell … or the regulation will force people to go electric.” And I am not totally against that — I am totally against forcing this on people who don’t want an electric car. I am all for bringing something unique, something cool, something different that’s better and maybe more affordable — maybe not in this market segment but in general.
An electric car should be better in every aspect, including price, compared to its competition and then people will buy it.
ABC News: There’s another trend in the industry where automakers are taking electric sports cars but giving them gearboxes and fake engine sounds. Is this something you’ve thought about?
Mate: No, we don’t do this. We have decided from the beginning we only do authentic things. There are no fake sounds, there are no artificial gear shift changes. The Hyundai Ioniq 5 Ns have that, it’s a gimmick. But we don’t think that’s appropriate for this category of cars.
ABC News: When do you think electric sports and supercars cars will be widely accepted?
Mate: Oh, I think that will be a while. People in this segment still prefer combustion cars. But I think we are the player when it comes to electric performance in this segment.
ABC News: So will the next Rimac sports car or Nevera successor have an internal combustion engine?
Mate: It could be anything. From the beginning, I never said that we are exclusively electric. We were whatever is most exciting. The Nevera R has four electric motors — that is not something you can achieve with a combustion engine. But when it comes to power source, it can be anything. It could be a combustion engine with an interesting fuel, it could be fuel cell that does not run on hydrogen. We are really looking at lots of stuff. The next car doesn’t necessarily have to be purely electric — whatever is most exciting and most technically interesting. I have been doing electric cars now for 15 years … I am very excited to look at other stuff as well.
ABC News: Where are you seeing the most demand for your cars?
Mate: The U.S. is the biggest customer base, closely after that is Europe. So like 40% [of sales] are in the U.S., 30% is Europe and then the rest of the world.
ABC News: What are the challenges of running two high performance and ultra luxe brands like Bugatti and Rimac? They compete for the same customers and that’s a very limited pool.
Mate: These customers have multiple cars, it’s not just like they buy just one car. They want to be a part of something. It’s about the people behind it, it’s about the events, meeting each other. [Customers] are becoming part of a story. They’re also becoming a part of history. We are creating history together.
Many of the customers decided to join Rimac because they’re also part of Bugatti or vice versa and they deal with the same people, they go to Croatia, they have the Croatia experience, so it actually works well. With Bugatti you have to be careful, it’s an old brand with a lot of heritage. You have to be very respectful to the brand. You cannot do something that’s crazy. A lot of our Nevera customers are also Bugatti customers.
ABC News: What is the biggest obstacle for all automakers and the industry right now?
Mate: There are three big topics. One is electrification. A lot of people invested a lot into electrification and maybe it was a bit too fast. The other area is China. The third one is autonomous driving and finding new ways of moving around where ownership isn’t really necessary anymore. The lower-end brands are really in the trenches, they have issues. It’s for sure an interesting time and in the next year we’ll see lots of changes in the industry.
ABC News: There are concerns about a recession in the U.S. Has the company been impacted at all?
Mate: This talk has been going on for years, basically since COVID started. We have never been more successful. We sold out of the Tourbillon — all 250 cars. We just presented it two months ago. It’s completely sold out. We are basically sold out until the end of this decade with Bugatti for a car that’s $4.6 million. The market is still strong in this segment.
ABC News: You’re also developing a driverless robotaxi that could be in service as soon as 2026. These types of vehicles have received a lot of bad press lately and have been involved in serious safety accidents. Why robotaxis? You design cars for real-life drivers.
Mate: Yeah, but do you really like to drive in every situation? Like how many times would you rather spend your time doing something else — watching a movie, or typing on your phone or typing some emails but you can’t because you’re driving or even worse you’re doing it while you’re driving. Not every drive is necessarily exciting and let’s be honest — how many people really care about it? I am not saying car ownership should go away or people shouldn’t drive cars anymore. God forbid.
We just think it makes sense. When an autonomous car in this stage has an accident, even if it’s a minor one, of course it will be blown out of proportion. But eventually autonomous cars will be a lot safer, a lot safer than human drivers and they will save millions of lives.
ABC News: So you have taken over Bugatti, you’re building electric hypercars and you also want to build robotaxis.
What is next on your list to accomplish?
Mate: [laughs]. Oh Jesus Christ, nothing. I made a vow to myself to finish all these things and then I don’t know. I might take a long vacation.
