(WASHINGTON) — The U.S. government is set to release new inflation data on Wednesday, offering a fresh look at price increases little more than a week after the issue appeared to help former President Donald Trump win re-election.
Inflation has cooled dramatically since a peak of 9% attained in 2022, now hovering near the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
The slowdown of price increases has coincided with robust economic growth, establishing the twin conditions necessary for the U.S. to achieve a “soft landing.”
Economists expect prices to have risen 2.6% over the year ending in October. That figure would mark a slight uptick from the annual rate of 2.4% recorded during the previous month.
Still, policymakers at the Fed forecast that inflation will inch downward toward normal levels next year, and reach the central bank’s target rate in 2026, according to projections released in September.
The Fed cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point last week. The move came two months after the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate a half of a percentage point, dialing back its fight against inflation since it began in 2021.
The Fed is guided by a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. In theory, lower interest rates help stimulate economic activity and boost employment.
While the central bank’s concern about inflation has receded in recent months, a renewed focus on the labor market has risen to the fore. Employment has continued to grow but expansion has slowed in recent months. The unemployment rate has ticked up from 3.7% to 4.1% this year.
“We continue to be confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and labor market can be maintained with inflation moving sustainably down to 2%,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference in Washington, D.C., last week.
Even as inflation has slowed, that progress hasn’t reversed a leap in prices that dates back to the pandemic. Since President Joe Biden took office in 2021, consumer prices have skyrocketed more than 20%.
The price hikes appeared to fuel support for Trump in last week’s election. More than two-thirds of voters say the economy is in bad shape, according to the preliminary results of an ABC News exit poll.
However, Trump’s proposals of heightened tariffs and the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants could rekindle rapid price increases, some experts previously told ABC News.
When asked last week about the Fed’s potential response to Trump’s policies, Powell said the central bank would make its decisions based on how any policy changes could impact the economy.
“In the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions,” Powell said on Thursday. “We don’t know what the timing and substance of any policy changes will be. We therefore don’t know what the effects on the economy will be.”
“We don’t guess, we don’t speculate and we don’t assume,” Powell added.
(NEW YORK) — After once deriding cryptocurrency as a “scam,” former President Donald Trump on Monday formally threw his support behind World Liberty Financial, a crypto venture whose business model remains largely unclear but has already drawn scrutiny as a potential ethics headache for his administration if he returns to the White House in January.
Joined Monday by his two adult sons and others involved in the fledgling business, including billionaire donor Steve Witkoff, Trump declared in a livestream on X that “crypto is one of those things we have to do,” and suggested that he would work to limit regulation of the industry if elected.
“Right now, you have a very hostile [Security and Exchange Commission] … they’ve been very hostile toward crypto,” Trump said. “My attitude is different.”
Details about the venture, including Trump’s role and potential compensation, remain unclear. The company’s website, which bears an image of a backlit Trump speaking at a podium, suggests the platform will have its own crypto token, called $WL, and aspires to “empower our users to operate their finances … with no direct oversight of any government agencies or officials.”
Industry experts said the website provides few details about the company — including what it will offer, who will have access to its profits, and how the Trump family stands to make money from it. James Butterfill, the head of research at CoinShares, a digital asset management firm, told ABC News that the website contains little more than “buzzwords.”
Government ethics watchdogs consulted by ABC News were quick to point out potential conflicts of interest posed by a candidate for president launching or becoming otherwise involved with a new business within weeks of Election Day — particularly in an industry as polarizing and unregulated as crypto, in which users directly exchange digital currencies without the oversight of banks or the government.
Jordan Libowitz, a spokesperson for Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, or CREW, said a future Trump administration would have wide latitude to impact crypto policy — and Trump’s own personal stake in the industry could potentially rub up against the best interests of the country.
“We’re still in the Wild West with crypto. It’s clear there is going to be some kind of regulation, but to what extent and how friendly they are to the industry, we don’t yet know,” Libowitz said. “The president obviously appoints the people in charge of that.”
Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, rejected any suggestion that Trump’s role in World Liberty Financial could pose an ethical dilemma if he’s reelected, calling Trump “the most ethical president in American history.”
“When President Trump first ran for office, he stepped away from his very successful and lucrative businesses because the job of saving America was the most important job he’d ever have,” Cheung said in a statement to ABC News. “Before he entered the White House, he ensured everything was done within the ethics guidelines set forth.”
In addition to Trump’s adult sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, who have for months been promoting World Liberty Financial on social media, a so-called “white paper” first reported by CoinBase indicated that Trump’s youngest son, Barron, 18, would also play a role in the firm.
Witkoff, who appeared Monday on the X livestream, said he introduced the Trumps to two other partners in the venture, Zak Folkman and Chase Herro, both of whom have a colorful business history.
Herro, who previously called himself a “dirtbag of the internet” at a crypto conference in 2018, has said he has made millions from an ecommerce business after spending three years in jail for selling drugs when he was in high school. Folkman, who first joined forces with Herro in the ecommerce business more than a decade ago, has reportedly previously taught classes on “how to date hotter girls.”
On ABC’s Good Morning America on Tuesday, Witkoff — a longtime friend to Trump and one of his campaign’s biggest financial supporters — downplayed any potential conflict posed by Trump’s foray into crypto.
“If the president is elected, which I expect him to be, then everything that he — all of his of his ownership, his businesses, will be put in some sort of a trust.” Witkoff said. “His children, I would assume, will be involved in running it. And I doubt that, therefore, that there is any conflict.”
But Danielle Brian, the executive director of the Project On Government Oversight, said that would be nothing more than “window dressing.”
“A trust managed by family members will not eliminate the conflict of interest created by a sitting president owning any business,” Brian said.
Trump’s announcement on Monday marked his transition from a vocal skeptic of digital currencies to one of the industry’s most enthusiastic proponents. As president, he complained on Twitter that crypto markets were “highly volatile and based on thin air.” In 2021, shortly after leaving the White House, Trump called cryptocurrencies a “scam.”
But during his 2024 bid for the White House, Trump has cozied up to crypto interests.
In May, his campaign said it would begin accepting contributions in cryptocurrency. Trump has regularly hosted industry enthusiasts at his properties and, in July, at the annual Bitcoin Conference, he pledged to make the U.S. the “crypto super-power” of the world.
(NEW YORK) — 7-Eleven will close more than 400 of its “underperforming stores” across the U.S. and Canada in an effort to reduce costs and bolster earnings before the end of the year.
Seven & I Holdings, the Tokyo-based parent company of the convenience store chain, announced the news during an earnings call last week, saying 444 stores will be shuttered due to the cumulative factors of inflation, slower customer traffic, and declining cigarette sales.
“All of these have impacted our sales and merchandise gross profit,” the CEO and President Joe DePinto said on the call.
As a result of the “macroeconomic conditions and evolving industry trends,” DePinto added that the company has revised its earning guidance.
The company reported a 7.3% decline in store traffic back in August and and said during its latest earnings reporting that the pattern corresponds with the “pullback of the middle- and low-income consumer.”
The total number of closures accounts for just over 3% of the more than 13,000 7-Eleven stores in North America.
(NEW YORK) — President-elect Donald Trump sharply criticized the rising price of groceries throughout his campaign, even delivering an address outside his New Jersey home in August alongside a table covered with cereal boxes, coffee grounds and ketchup.
A wave of consumer discontent appears to have helped lift him back into the Oval Office, but Trump now faces the task of how to ease voters’ frustration.
Food inflation soared to a peak of more than 10% in 2022, but price increases have slowed to about 2%, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.
Still, the yearslong bout of rapid inflation has sent food prices soaring more than 25% since President Joe Biden took office.
Typically, prices do not fall across the board unless the economy slows or even tips into recession, which would reduce consumer demand but also impose economic hardship, some economists told ABC News.
Still, Trump could enact policies that may slow the rise of grocery prices, or even lower the cost of some household staples, economists added.
“Prices on different items absolutely could come down,” Michael Faulkender, a professor of finance at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, told ABC News.
In response to ABC News’ request for comment, the Trump transition team said in a statement that Trump intends to fulfill the commitments he made during the campaign. But the transition team did not specifically address the issue of grocery prices.
“The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver.” Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the transition team, told ABC News.
Increase oil production
On the campaign trail, Trump often responded to concern about prices with a three-word mantra: “Drill, baby, drill.”
Trump, who has downplayed human-caused climate change, vowed to bolster the oil and gas industry by easing regulation and expanding output.
In theory, increased oil production could lower food prices since gas makes up a key source of costs throughout the supply chain, whether a firm is growing crops or transporting them to a seller, economists said.
“Energy is a big input cost for food,” David Andolfatto, an economist at the University of Miami, told ABC News. “That should put downward pressure on food prices.”
While such a move could prove beneficial, increased oil output under President Joe Biden coincided with the surge of inflation in recent years. Since oil is sold on a global market, a surge in domestic production may not lower prices for U.S. consumers as much as some may expect.
The U.S. set a record for crude oil production in 2023, averaging 12.9 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a federal agency.
A further uptick in oil production risks accelerating the nation’s carbon emissions and worsening the impact of climate change, which would carry costs down the road, Luis Cabral, a professor of economics at New York University, told ABC News.
“We can’t simply look at the benefits,” Cabral said, acknowledging the potential for lower food prices. “There are also important costs in terms of emissions and climate change.”
Bolster antitrust enforcement
To address high food prices, the Trump administration could crack down on market concentration, a term economists use to describe the dominance of a given industry by a handful of firms, some experts said.
They pointed to the market power of large corporations as a cause of rapid price increases, saying companies use their outsized role in the market to raise prices without fear of a competitor offering a comparable product at a more affordable price.
“Whenever there are fewer players in an industry, prices tend to be higher,” Cabral said. “Supermarkets aren’t an exception.”
Grocery store profit margins surged in 2021 and rose even higher two years later, even after price increases had begun to cool, a Federal Trade Commission study in March showed.
In February, the Federal Trade Commission sued to block the merger of supermarket chains Kroger and Albertsons, which would amount to the largest supermarket merger in U.S. history. The proceedings are ongoing, and will likely stretch into the Trump administration.
Some economists cast doubt over the potential benefits of antitrust, saying the recent bout of inflation coincided with an uptick in production costs during the pandemic. “It’s hard to argue that it’s therefore some kind of profiteering,” Faulkender said.
Price-gouging ban
During the campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris proposed a federal ban on price gouging for food and groceries.
The plan could resemble price-gouging bans in place in 37 states, which prohibit a sudden spike in prices for scarce goods, the Harris campaign said. Those bans prohibit companies from exploiting a sudden imbalance between supply and demand by significantly hiking prices.
While Trump may be reluctant to adopt a policy put forward by his proponent, he could advance a price-gouging ban as a means of preventing acute price increases for specific goods.
For instance, egg prices have skyrocketed 30% over the year ending in October, U.S. Bureau of Statistics data on Wednesday showed. The spike owed primarily to an avian flu outbreak that has decimated supply. Last year, egg prices climbed more than 60% in response to a similar avian flu outbreak.
Economists who spoke to ABC News differed on the effectiveness of a potential price-gouging ban.
Some economists dismissed the policy as a flawed solution, since state-level bans usually get triggered only in the case of emergencies and, even then, often lack clarity about the type of company behavior that constitutes price-gouging.
“I don’t think a federal price-gouging ban would help at all,” Cabral said.
Andolfatto, of the University of Miami, said a price-gouging ban could lower food prices if it barred rapid price increases under some circumstances. However, those benefits may be outweighed by the downside, since such a ban could override the market signal delivered by prices, which help direct the distribution of goods to places where they are in short supply.
“These types of interventions have unintended consequences,” Andolfatto said.
