Inflation hits highest level since 2023, as the Iran war pushes up prices
A customer shops for produce at an H-E-B grocery store on May 11, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Inflation jumped for a third consecutive month as the Iran war continued to drive up prices in May, surpassing 4% for the first time in three years. The reading matched economists’ expectations.
Prices rose 4.2% in May compared to a year earlier, marking an increase from a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.8% in the prior month, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed.
As recently as February, inflation clocked in just a few ticks above the Federal Reserve’s target level of 2%.
The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded.
Energy prices — a broad index that includes gasoline — soared 23% in May compared to a year earlier, data showed.
As a result, gasoline prices surged. The price of an average gallon of gas stood at $4.15 as of Wednesday, AAA data showed — an increase of $1.17 per gallon since the war began on Feb. 28. That amounts to a nearly 40% price jump in about three-and-a-half months.
The oil shortage also drove up diesel prices, putting upward pressure on grocery prices. Diesel is the lifeblood of the food supply chain, fueling trucks and ships. Higher fuel costs for suppliers mean price hikes in grocery aisles as the increased costs are passed down the supply chain.
Prices for tomatoes soared 32% in May compared to a year earlier, government data showed. Seafood prices jumped 6% over that period, while beef prices climbed nearly 13%.
A persistent increase in consumer prices may put pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates as a means of dialing back inflation.
For now, futures markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady when policy makers meet next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of investor sentiment.
The meeting will be the first since Kevin Warsh began a four-year term atop the central bank.
During his term as a Fed governor in the late 2000s and early 2010s, Warsh gained a reputation as an interest-rate “hawk,” meaning he generally preferred higher interest rates as a means of ensuring low and stable inflation.
Last year, however, Warsh voiced support for lower interest rates, rebuking the Fed’s concern about inflation risk posed by a flurry of new tariffs.
At his Senate confirmation hearing in April, Warsh emphasized the threat posed by elevated inflation.
“When inflation surges — as it has done in recent years — grievous harm is done to our citizens, especially to the least well-off,” Warsh said.
In this Nov. 16, 2023, file photo, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman looks on during the APEC CEO Summit at Moscone West in San Francisco. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images, FILE)
(NEW YORK) — OpenAI, the artificial-intelligence company behind ChatGPT, announced Monday night it had filed confidentially for an initial public offering (IPO), setting up the firm to raise fresh funds as it competes with deep-pocketed tech giants in the fast-growing AI industry.
In a post on X, OpenAI said it had not determined when the company would begin listing on public markets.
“We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. But it’s a complicated set of tradeoffs and this gives us the option to go public sooner if that ends up being best,” the company said.
The move would subject the privately held company to new scrutiny from public investors and regulators, as well as ongoing financial reporting requirements. OpenAI valued itself at $852 billion after a round of funding in March.
In this June 27, 2016 file photo Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve and president and founder of Greenspan Associates, speaks during a Bloomberg Television interview in Washington, D.C. (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images, FILE)
(NEW YORK) — Alan Greenspan, the longtime chairman of the Federal Reserve, has died, his wife confirmed. He was 100 years old.
“Alan passed away at our home this morning at the age of 100 from complications of Parkinson’s Disease,” Andrea Mitchell, his wife and a chief correspondent at NBC News, said in a statement published by the network on Monday.
The economist is remembered for leading the American central bank amid periods of historic U.S. economic expansion, while critics have also said his policies contributed to and exacerbated the mortgage crisis and financial crash of 2008.
Greenspan, a libertarian Republican, became the 13th chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System two months before the stock market crash on Oct. 19,1987, known as Black Monday. He was credited with moving quickly to alleviate investors’ fears after the crash and was instrumental in ensuring the Federal Reserve made plenty of money available to alleviate the impact on financial markets. Stocks quickly rebounded.
He was appointed Fed chair by four different presidents during his career, first by Ronald Reagan in 1987. Greenspan continued to serve as Fed chairman under presidents George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. He steered the U.S. economy through the economic boom in the 1990s, the dotcom bubble, and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. His final term as chair ended on Jan. 31, 2006.
Under his leadership, the Fed fostered a distaste for regulation and promoted very low interest rates in the early 2000s — two phenomena critics say encouraged a bubble in housing prices that eventually burst with disastrous effects on the global economy.
During his tenure, and before the financial crisis began, the nation experienced one of the longest periods of economic growth in its history.
A decorated economist, first inspired by music
Greenspan was born on March 6, 1926, in New York City, the only child of Herbert Greenspan, a stockbroker, and Rose Goldsmith Greenspan, a retail worker. His parents divorced when he was 4 years old, and he was raised mainly by his mother and his grandparents.
An aspiring musician, Greenspan attended Juilliard for a year and played saxophone and clarinet before dropping out and enrolling at New York University. He went on to gain his bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral degrees in economics from New York University. He also engaged in some advanced graduate work at Columbia University in New York, where he studied under the influential economist Arthur Burns.
Though short-lived, his music career was an influential portion of Greenspan’s life, and he considered the move into economics a logical progression. He saw the organization of economic data into sound fiscal modeling as analogous to the organization of musical notes into tunes, according to Greenspan biographer Justin Martin in his book, “Greenspan: The Man Behind Money.”
“I get the same kind of joy from solving a hard mathematical problem as I do from hearing a Haydn quartet,” Greenspan once told The New York Times Magazine.
Greenspan taught economics at NYU between 1953 and 1955 and then founded the economic consulting firm Townsend & Greenspan, where he served as chairman and president from 1954 to 1974. He returned to the firm in 1977 and stayed until 1987.
President Richard Nixon nominated Greenspan to chair the President’s Council of Economic Advisers in 1974, the first of many government economic positions he would hold. Nixon resigned as president hours after Greenspan was nominated, but he continued to serve under President Gerald Ford. Greenspan also served as a member of President Ronald Reagan’s Economic Policy Advisory Board and was a consultant to the Congressional Budget Office.
In the private sector, Greenspan served as corporate director for many companies, including Alcoa, General Foods and J.P. Morgan & Co. He also served as a member of Time magazine’s Board of Economists and a senior adviser to the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity.
In 2002, Greenspan received an honorary knighthood from Queen Elizabeth II in recognition of his contribution to global economic stability. In 2005, President George W. Bush presented Greenspan with the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
He held the position of Fed chairman from the time Reagan appointed him in 1987 until 2006, serving an unprecedented five terms under four presidents before being succeeded by Ben Bernanke.
Greenspan is credited by many with facilitating the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. One day after the Black Monday stock crash, Greenspan affirmed the Fed’s “readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system” and the central bank moved to encourage banks to lend on their normal terms. Unlike prior financial crises, the events of Black Monday notably were not followed by an economic recession or a banking crisis and less than two years later, the U.S. stock market surpassed its pre-crash highs.
During his tenure, Greenspan developed a reputation for being a consensus-builder and for his strong anti-inflation stance, focusing more on controlling prices than on promoting full employment. He led the Federal Reserve through several events with major economic consequences, including two U.S. recessions, the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
‘How could we have possibly got it so wrong?’
Starting in June 2003, the Federal Reserve set the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks typically borrow from each other, to one percent for a year. Though its intention was to lower the cost of borrowing and stimulate the economy, critics said the rate was too low and encouraged investments in risky subprime mortgage-backed securities, which they say contributed to the financial crisis in 2008.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, a research organization seen as an authority on measuring economic performance, later said that the recession officially began in December 2007.
In September 2007, Greenspan published a book that was both a memoir and economic commentary, “The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World,” in which he criticized the George W. Bush administration for overspending and admitted that he supported the administration’s tax cuts without stressing the need for spending cuts.
In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in August 2012, Greenspan said, “one day before Lehman Brothers crashes, conventional wisdom was not even certain that we would fall into a recession.”
“In fact, we learned many months later that the downward trend had actually started,” Greenspan said. “How could we have possibly got it so wrong? I mean, I actually was saying, ‘Yes, recession is coming, not that we’re here yet.’ We didn’t know that it had already hit.”
In October 2008, Greenspan acknowledged to a congressional committee discussing financial regulation that, “I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms.”
After Greenspan finished his term as chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006, he established Greenspan Associates, an economic consulting firm in Washington, D.C.
With Greenspan as president, the firm had four employees as of October 2012. His client list has included giant finance clients like German firm Deutsche Bank and hedge fund Paulson & Co.
Personal life
Greenspan married artist Joan Mitchell in 1952. The couple divorced in 1953 after less than a year of marriage, and the marriage was later annulled. The two remained friends.
His first wife is remembered for introducing him to novelist and philosopher Ayn Rand, with whom Greenspan shared a friendship, a belief in free-market economic ideals and a philosophy of objectivism. In his 30s and early 40s, Greenspan spent many hours sitting with Rand’s band of followers, known as the “Collective,” discussing topics including politics philosophy, current events and economics.
In addition to Burns at Columbia, Rand and her group were instrumental in helping hone Greenspan’s capitalist, free-market economic philosophy, according to Martin, Greenspan’s biographer.
The group’s open style of debate and discussion served Greenspan well in his various governmental roles. During his career in public service, he became known for a well-developed ability to communicate with Congress without offending those with opposing viewpoints or politicizing his messages.
Though he was said to back revamping the Social Security system and raising the retirement age, Greenspan was wary of how his public statements as Fed chairman might move markets. He rarely granted interviews. He was known for making openly ambiguous public statements about the state of the U.S. economy, once telling Congress, “If I’ve made myself too clear, you must have misunderstood me.”
Greenspan married NBC News correspondent Mitchell in 1997. Their marriage was officiated by the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
“We’ve had the most wonderful marriage,” he told Bloomberg Businessweek in August 2012. “It gets better every year. We’re still very much together in love.”
Crude oil tankers, bulk carriers and vessels sit anchored around Qaboos Port June 22, 2026, in Muscat, Oman. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for the region’s oil and gas. (Elke Scholiers/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level since May as negotiations between the United States and Iran ease financial markets.
The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.43%, down from last week’s rate of 6.49%, Freddie Mac data on Thursday showed.
Still, mortgage rates register above their level before the war with Iran. Prior to the Middle East conflict in late February, a 30-year fixed mortgage clocked in at an average just below 6%.
“Rates did drop, which does provide some relief. But they’re still high,” Julia Fonseca, a professor at the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, told ABC News.
A decline in mortgage rates over recent weeks has come in response to a drop in oil prices and Treasury yields, some analysts told ABC News. The shift has partially reversed a trend that took hold after the Iran war broke out.
At that time, mortgage rates surged in response to a jump in U.S. Treasury yields, or the amount paid annually to a holder of government debt. The rise in bond yields is owed to fear of a renewed bout of inflation as oil prices climbed.
Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks higher consumer prices that would eat away at those annual payouts. In turn, bonds often become less attractive in response to economic turmoil. When demand falls, bond yields rise.
High bond yields make borrowing more expensive for average Americans, since 10-year Treasury rates influence the rates offered for a variety of loans, including mortgages.
Bond yields eased in recent weeks as negotiations unfolded between the U.S. and Iran, pushing down oil prices and softening inflation expectations, Ken Johnson, a real estate economist at the University of Mississippi, told ABC News. In turn, Johnson said, mortgage rates have fallen.
“The big driver has been the cooling of tensions in the Gulf,” Johnson told ABC News.
Despite the recent drop, mortgage rates remain higher than their pre-war level. Even more, mortgage rates stand well above their level as recently as 2022, when the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage came in below 5%.
Elevated mortgage rates have contributed to a phenomenon known as the “lock-in” effect.
Mortgage rates remain well above the rates enjoyed by most current homeowners, who may be reluctant to put their homes on the market and risk a much higher rate on their next mortgage.
“Rates are still pretty high relative to what they were a few years ago, but every drop in mortgage rates helps. This is not going to go all the way toward unlocking people. We might see this gradual unlocking as time goes by and as rates tick down,” Fonseca said.
