North Korea tests ballistic missile as Blinken visits South Korea
South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul (R) and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken shake hands during a joint press conference following their meeting at the Foreign Ministry in Seoul on January 6, 2025. (Photo by Lee Jin-man / POOL / AFP)
(SEOUL, TOKYO and LONDON) — The South Korean military detected a projectile fired from North Korea that was suspected to be a medium-range ballistic missile, a test-launch that arrived as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited South Korea.
The missile was fired from the area surrounding Pyongyang, the capital, toward the East Sea at about noon on Monday, according to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The joint chiefs said the South Korean military has heightened surveillance for additional launches and is maintaining a readiness posture for sharing ballistic-missile-related data with the U.S. and Japan.
Blinken condemned the test, which he called “yet another violation of multiple Security Council resolutions.” He added that President Joe Biden’s administration has “sought to engage the DPRK and multiple efforts to sit down to talk without any preconditions.”
“We communicated that on many occasions. We’ve done it privately, we’ve done it publicly,” Blinken said during a press conference in Seoul. “And the only response, effectively we’ve gotten has been more and more provocative actions, including missile launches.”
The last time North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile was Nov. 5, just before the U.S. presidential election.
The U.S., South Korea and Japan have during Biden’s term bolstered their real-time information sharing capabilities, a move that Blinken on Monday had “strengthened our common defense and common deterrence.”
He said the launch on Monday amounted to “just a reminder” of the importance of that trilateral collaboration, which has also included military drills.
“All of that and more is a strong and effective response to the provocations from North Korea,” Blinken said. “So I have confidence that, because it’s so in the interest of all of us, it will continue and future administrations, whether it’s here, whether it’s in the United States, whether it’s Japan, we’ll continue to build on the work.”
Tokyo reacted swiftly to the launch, saying it was reinforcing its regional alliances through coordinated action with the United States and South Korea. Officials condemned Pyongyang while emphasizing the importance of a unified approach.
Defense Minister Gen Nakatani, speaking from Indonesia, issued a strong condemnation, describing the repeated launches as a grave threat to Japan’s national security and regional peace.
“We strongly protest and denounce North Korea’s actions, which endanger not only our country but also the international community,” he said, reaffirming Japan’s commitment to work closely with the U.S. and South Korea to bolster deterrence and conduct thorough surveillance.
Many office workers in Tokyo were returning to their jobs after the New Year’s holidays when news of the launch broke. The projectile reached an altitude of about 62 miles and traveled about 684 miles before falling into the Sea of Japan, another name for the East Sea, and outside Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone, according to Japan’s Ministry of Defense. The Japan Coast Guard confirmed that no damage to vessels in the affected area had been reported.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed serious concern about North Korea’s advancements in missile technology.
“The frequency of these launches and the evident improvement in technology demand that we redouble our efforts to strengthen deterrence,” he said during a press conference. “Japan’s peace and independence must be safeguarded by our own resolve.”
ABC News’ Will Gretsky contributed to this report.
(LONDON) — The ceasefire in Lebanon is holding despite ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets, which Israeli officials say are responses to ceasefire violations by the Iranian-backed militant group.
The Israel Defense Forces continues its intense airstrike and ground campaigns in Gaza, particularly in the north of the devastated Palestinian territory.
Tensions also remain high between Israel and Iran after tit-for-tat long-range strikes in recent months and threats of further military action from both sides.
Amnesty accuses Israel of ‘genocide’ in Gaza
Amnesty International released a new report Thursday accusing Israel of committing genocide in the Gaza Strip amid its ongoing war with Hamas.
Israel, Amnesty alleged, has sought to intentionally destroy Palestinians via direct attacks, the destruction of vital infrastructure and the prevention of food, medicine and other aid deliveries.
Israeli conduct, the report suggested, cannot be justified by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack into Israel, or the presence of Palestinian militants among civilians in Gaza.
“Our damning findings must serve as a wake-up call to the international community: this is genocide. It must stop now,” Agnes Callamard, the secretary general of Amnesty International, said.
Israel’s Foreign Ministry rejected the report as “fabricated,” “entirely false and based on lies.” In a statement to X, the ministry said Amnesty was a “deplorable and fanatical organization.”
“The genocidal massacre on Oct. 7, 2023, was carried out by the Hamas terrorist organization against Israeli citizens,” the ministry wrote. “Since then, Israeli citizens have been subjected to daily attacks from seven different fronts.”
“Israel is defending itself against these attacks acting fully in accordance with international law,” it added.
The ministry also shared an image of a bloodied room which it said was a photo of a child’s bedroom immediately after Oct. 7. The image, the ministry said, “tells you everything you need to know about Amnesty’s report.”
-ABC News’ Ellie Kaufman and Zoe Magee
Body of Israeli hostage recovered in Gaza
Israeli forces have recovered the body of Israeli hostage Itay Svirsky from Gaza, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office.
Svirsky was declared dead in January. His parents were also killed on Oct. 7.
-ABC News’ Will Gretsky
At least 20 killed in strike outside Khan Younis
At least 20 people were killed in a large strike in Al-Mawasi, west of the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis.
A camp where displaced people were staying was hit in the attack, injuring many. A search and rescue operation is underway.
-ABC News’ Will Gretsky
IDF confirms another strike in southern Lebanon
After warning people this morning to stay away from southern Lebanon, the Israel Defense Forces said they had carried out a strike in Majdal Zoun on a rocket launcher they said violated the ceasefire.
-ABC News’ Will Gretsky
Israeli defense minister signals some optimism about hostage deal
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz visited the Tel Nof airbase Wednesday, where he signaled some optimism about the hostage deal.
“The pressure on the monstrous organization Hamas is increasing — there is a chance that this time we will really be able to advance a hostage deal,” Katz said.
“We will not stop the war until we return all the kidnapped men and women and until we achieve the goals,” he later added.
-ABC News’ Will Gretsky
Massive evacuation ordered in Beit Lahia in northern Gaza
A massive evacuation is underway Wednesday in Beit Lahia in northern Gaza, with a Palestinian Civil Defense official telling ABC News more than 10,000 people were forced to leave in the last 24 hours.
About 225,000 people lived in Beit Lahia before the war, and less than 40,000 remain there now, the official said.
The area is facing relentless bombing and an unknown number of people are believed to be dead or injured.
-ABC News’ Will Gretsky
Israeli West Bank settlers riot, attack Palestinians and security forces
The Israel Defense Forces on Wednesday said security forces personnel faced “violent” scenes while evacuating an illegal Israeli settler outpost in the Palestinian West Bank town of Huwara, close to the city of Nablus.
Dozens of settlers rioted, setting fire to Palestinian buildings, vehicles and attacking Palestinian residents after Israeli security forces moved in to conduct the evacuation.
The IDF said several Israelis were arrested.
“The IDF views with great seriousness any violence against its servants and the security forces, who commit nights and days to the security of the citizens of the region,” its statement read. “These events must be condemned and the violators of the law brought to justice.”
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller and Joe Simonetti
UN chief says Gaza aid ‘outrageously’ blocked
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a post to X on Tuesday that much-needed humanitarian aid for Gaza is being “outrageously blocked.”
Guterres said aid agencies are facing “gigantic humanitarian needs” in Gaza, where the Israel Defense Forces continue military operations — particularly in the north of the devastated territory.
UN officials have repeatedly demanded that Israel do more to facilitate aid flows into Gaza.
“The nightmare is not a crisis of logistics,” Guterres said. “It’s a crisis of political will and of respect for fundamental principles of international humanitarian law.”
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller
Israeli forces conduct strike in Syria
The Israel Defense Forces said it conducted a strike in Damascus on Tuesday, to target Salman Nemer Jamaa, Hezbollah’s representative to the Syrian military.
“The Syrian regime has actively supported Hezbollah, enabling weapon smuggling to Lebanon and by that endangering Syrian and Lebanese civilians. Jamaa was a key Hezbollah figure supporting these operations,” the IDF said in a statement.
This Israeli strike is separate from active ongoing fighting between Syrian rebel forces and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces.
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller
Diseases spreading in Gaza as winter bites
Doctors Without Borders on Tuesday reported a significant spread of respiratory diseases, pneumonia, skin diseases and diseases resulting from immunodeficiency among citizens in Gaza.
The organization’s medical director, Fadi Al-Madhoun, warned of acute respiratory infection among children in the Gaza Strip due to the winter weather and their presence in tents that do not protect against the winter cold.
Last month, MSF described conditions in Gaza as “appalling” and said its teams treated more than 10,000 children under the age of 5 for upper respiratory tract infections like tonsillitis and the common cold.
-ABC News’ Samy Zyara and Joe Simonetti
Airstrike targets car near Damascus airport
Syria’s SANA news agency reported an Israeli airstrike targeting a car on a main road close to Damascus airport on Tuesday.
It was not immediately clear whether there were any casualties from the strike, or who the target was.
The Israel Defense Forces has not yet commented on the report.
-ABC News’ Nasser Atta, Jordana Miller and Joe Simonetti
IDF claims killing of Oct. 7 militants
The Israel Defense Forces said Tuesday that it killed seven militants it accused of participating in Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, infiltration attack into southern Israel.
The IDF said in a statement that troops of the 99th Division’s 990th Brigade killed the fighters during operations in central Gaza over the past two weeks.
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller
Trump’s Israel ambassador pick demands ‘severe’ response to hostage death
Mike Huckabee, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to be the next American ambassador to Israel, said the U.S. must “exact severe consequences” after the Israel Defense Forces announced the death of missing American-Israeli soldier Omer Neutra.
Neutra, 21, was killed during Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack into southern Israel and his body was taken back into Gaza, the IDF said Monday. He was previously thought to have been abducted alive.
Huckabee wrote on X, “There must be serious consequences for holding any hostage but America needs to exact severe consequences for kidnapping and murdering AMERICAN hostages.”
Trump said on Truth Social on Monday that there would be “ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East” if remaining hostages are not released from Gaza by the time he takes office on Jan. 20.
There are believed to be three surviving Americans still being held hostage in Gaza.
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller
9 killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon, health ministry says
Lebanon’s Health Ministry said that Israeli airstrikes in the south of the country killed nine people on Monday, as last week’s fragile ceasefire continues despite renewed cross-border fire.
The ministry said in posts to X that an Israeli attack on the town of Haris killed five people and injured two. A strike on the town of Talousa killed four and injured one, the ministry said.
The Israel Defense Forces said Monday it was striking targets in southern Lebanon and accused Hezbollah of “severe violation of the ceasefire.”
IDF says it’s hitting targets in Lebanon
The IDF said it is striking targets in southern Lebanon on Monday after Hezbollah officials said earlier they fired on an Israeli target.
“We will respond decisively to Hezbollah’s severe violation of the ceasefire —and will continue to do so. We have plans and targets ready to be carried out and at any given moment,” the Chief of the General Staff, LTG Herzi Halevi, said Monday.
Hezbollah says it fired on Israeli target in southern Lebanon
Hezbollah officials said Monday they fired on an Israeli target in southern Lebanon, accusing Israel of “repeated violations” of the ceasefire agreement.
The Israel Defense Forces said Hezbollah launched two projectiles toward the area of Har Dov. There were no injuries, with the projectiles falling in open space, the IDF said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened a forceful response, calling it a “serious violation of the ceasefire.”
“We are determined to continue enforcing the ceasefire, and to respond to any violation by Hezbollah — minor or serious,” Netanyahu said.
Family of dead Israeli-American soldier release statement
The family of Omer Maxim Neutra, the Israeli-American soldier who had been believed to be in Hamas captivity, released a statement Monday after it was confirmed he was killed Oct. 7.
“Our hearts are shattered with this devastating news,” the family said. “The Neutra family is deeply grieving and are requesting the public, who has shown great support throughout this journey, to please respect their privacy until they are formally ready to announce the next steps.”
“May Omer’s memory be a blessing,” they added.
Netanyahu vows to recover body of US-Israeli soldier from Gaza
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife, Sara Netanyahu, said in a joint statement Monday they “will not rest or be silent” until the body of killed U.S.-Israeli soldier Omer Neutra is recovered from the Gaza Strip.
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed Monday that Neutra, 21, was killed during Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack into southern Israel and his body taken back into Gaza. Neutra — who was originally from New York — was previously thought to have been taken hostage. He was serving as a tank platoon commander at the time of the attack.
Neutra “fought fiercely at the head of his soldiers to defend the settlements surrounding Gaza, until he fell.” Netanyahu’s statement said. “We share in the family’s heavy grief,” it added.
“We will continue to act resolutely and tirelessly until we return all of our captives — the living and the dead,” the statement said.
There are still three American citizens thought to be alive as hostages inside Gaza.
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller and Joe Simonetti
Israeli drone strike injures Lebanon soldier, army says
The Lebanese Armed Forces said on Monday that an Israeli drone “targeted an army bulldozer while it was carrying out fortification work” at a military center in the northeastern Hermel region close to the border with Syria.
The attack “resulted in one soldier being moderately injured,” the army wrote in a post to X.
The Israel Defense Forces has not yet commented on the alleged strike.
-ABC News’ Victoria Beaule
IDF confirms death of US-Israeli hostage
The Israel Defense Forces on Monday confirmed that missing U.S.-Israeli soldier Omer Maxim Neutra, 21, was among those killed in Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack into southern Israel.
Neutra was believed taken into Gaza as a hostage by militants during the attack. But the IDF said Monday he was killed during the Oct. 7 assault and his body was taken by militants.
Neutra — originally from New York — was serving as a tank platoon commander in the 77th Battalion of the 7th Brigade at the time of the Hamas attack. He was among hundreds of security forces personnel killed during the assault.
Neutra’s parents have been campaigning for a hostage release deal in the U.S., their activity including public appearances at the White House and the Capitol.
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller
IDF reports ‘several operations’ against Hezbollah in Lebanon
The Israel Defense Forces said Sunday it launched “several operations” targeting Hezbollah fighters that it claimed posed a direct threat to Israel “in violation of the ceasefire agreement.”
Among the operations was an attack on armed militants operating close to a church in southern Lebanon, the IDF said.
Those killed “were active in the ground defense, anti-tank and artillery formations in the sector, and took part in the fighting while using the church,” it wrote in a post to X.
The 60-day ceasefire that went into effect last week is holding despite continued sporadic fighting and Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon.
The deal stipulates that IDF troops will withdraw from their positions in Lebanon during the 60-day window and that Hezbollah forces will withdraw from the region south of the Litani River.
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller
Hostage Edan Alexander’s father makes an appeal to Biden, Trump and Netanyahu
The father of American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander issued an emotional request on Sunday to President Biden, President-elect Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, telling the leaders to act now to bring the hostages home “before it’s too late.”
A day after seeing his son for the first time in a year in a propaganda video released by Hamas’ military wing, Adi Alexander of New Jersey spoke at a rally in New York City’s Central Park, saying, “No father should hear his child plead for his life like that.”
“President Biden, President Trump, Prime Minster Netanyahu, I call on all of you to act,” Alexander said. “This is not a moment for politics or hesitation. This is a moment of courage, collaboration and decisive action.”
He appealed to Biden to use the United States’ influence “to negotiate a deal before it’s too late.”
Directing his words to Trump, he said, “You do not have to wait until January to make an impact. The world is watching. Act now.”
To Netanyahu, Alexander said, “The fate of the hostages, including my son, rests in your hands. You have the power to bring them home. Don’t let this opportunity slip away.”
Edan Alexander, 20, was serving in the Israeli military and stationed near Gaza when he was taken captive by Hamas terrorists on Oct. 7, 2023.
The White House issued a statement, saying, it has been in touch with the Alexander family and called the hostage video a “cruel reminder of Hamas’s terror against citizens of multiple countries, including our own.”
“The war in Gaza would stop tomorrow and the suffering of Gazans would end immediately– and would have ended months ago– if Hamas agreed to release the hostages,” White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said in a statement. “It has refused to do so, but as the President said last week, we have a critical opportunity to conclude the deal to release the hostages, stop the war, and surge humanitarian assistance into Gaza. This deal is on the table now.”
Netanyahu to hold meeting to discuss hostages, Lebanon, Syria tonight: Official
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a security meeting Sunday night to discuss the issue of the hostages, as well as Lebanon and Syria, an Israeli official told ABC News.
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller
UN pauses aid deliveries to Gaza amid safety concerns
UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini on Sunday announced a pause to Gaza aid deliveries via the strip’s main crossing point, citing serious threats to the safety of staff.
The road out of the Kerem Shalom crossing “has not been safe for months,” Lazzarini said in a post to X.
“This difficult decision comes at a time hunger is rapidly deepening,” Lazzarini said. “The delivery of humanitarian aid must never be dangerous or turn into an ordeal.”
The UNRWA chief said a “large convoy of aid trucks was stolen by armed gangs” on Nov. 16, with several more aid trucks taken on Saturday.
Lazzarini also said that Israel’s “ongoing siege” of Gaza, “hurdles” put in place by Israeli authorities and “political decisions to restrict the amounts of aid” were among the other problems facing U.N. staff.
“The humanitarian operation has become unnecessarily impossible,” he wrote. “The responsibility of protection of aid workers [and] supplies is with the state of Israel as the occupying power.”
(LONDON) — A spate of alleged sabotage operations against undersea cables in the Baltic Sea has raised the prospect of a dangerous 2025 in NATO’s northern theater, with allied leaders vowing closer surveillance of and tougher action against Russian- and Chinese-linked and other ships accused of nefarious efforts there.
“NATO will enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea,” alliance chief Mark Rutte said in late December, after the last such instance of suspected sabotage, condemning “any attacks on critical infrastructure.”
Rutte’s commitment came after the most recent of three alleged sabotage operations in the Baltic Sea — the damaging of the Estlink 2 power cable and four internet cables on Christmas Day. The Estlink 2 cable — along with the Estlink 1 cable — transfers electricity from Finland to Estonia across the Gulf of Finland.
Finnish authorities quickly seized control of the ship suspected of the damage to the Estlink 2 cable — the Eagle S. Though flagged in the Cook Islands, Finnish and European Union authorities said the Eagle S is part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers.
On Jan. 3, Finnish authorities said repair work on the cable had begun and forensic samples would be taken as part of the investigation. Eight sailors were still under a travel ban as the probe continued, they added.
NATO accuses Moscow of using tankers and other vessels to evade an international sanctions campaign on its fossil fuel exports prompted by the Kremlin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Atlantic Council described this “shadow fleet” as made up of ageing vessels often sailing without Western insurance, under opaque ownership and with regularly changing names and national registrations.
Allied officials say some of the ailing ships are doubling as low-tech saboteur vessels.
There may be as many as 1,400 ships in Russia’s shadow fleet, according to the Windward maritime risk management firm. In December 2023, the energy cargo tracking company Vortexa calculated that 1,649 vessels had operated in what the Atlantic Council called the “opaque market” since January 2021, among them 1,089 carrying Russian crude oil.
Cat-and-mouse at sea
December’s round of suspected sabotage prompted the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force — a defensive regional bloc also including Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden — to launch an advanced AI-assisted reaction system to “track potential threats to undersea infrastructure and monitor the Russian shadow fleet.”
A Jan. 14 meeting of NATO’s Baltic states in Helsinki, meanwhile, will focus on “measures required to secure the critical underwater infrastructure,” Finnish President Alexander Stubb said, and the “strengthening of NATO’s presence in the Baltic Sea and responding to the threat posed by Russia’s shadow fleet.”
But allies face a major challenge in surveilling some 145,560 square miles of sea crisscrossed by as many as 4,000 ships per day.
NATO tracking efforts are complicated by “the sheer scale of the global commercial shipping sector and the fact that ownership structures are often quite opaque and complex,” Sidharth Kaushal — the sea power senior research fellow at the British Royal United Services Institute think tank — told ABC News.
“A vessel may have multiple beneficial owners, its owners may not necessarily be from the state where it’s registered and so actually attributing its activity to a given state becomes very difficult,” he explained.
Russian- and Chinese-linked vessels could play a role, but so could ships seemingly unconnected to Moscow or Beijing.
“The Russians have quite a broad spectrum of commercial vessels to choose from,” Kaushal said. “It’s actually quite odd, in some ways, that they opted for a vessel that’s associated with their shadow fleet.”
The Baltic Sea is also relatively shallow. Its average depth is around 180 feet, compared to 312 feet in the North Sea and 4,900 feet in the Mediterranean Sea.
Reaching cables or pipelines at the bottom of the Baltic is far easier than in the world’s largest bodies of water, like the Atlantic Ocean with its average depth of 10,932 feet or the Pacific Ocean at 13,000 feet.
“In the Atlantic, for example, one has to use some pretty specialized equipment to go after undersea infrastructure,” Kaushal said. In the Baltic, “much simpler tools — things like dragging an anchor — are perfectly feasible means of attack.”
NATO’s toolbox
Guarding specific sites appears more realistic than identifying and surveilling all potential saboteurs. After the damage to Estlink 2 was reported, for example, Estonia said it dispatched naval vessels to protect Estlink 1.
November’s Bold Machina 2024 naval exercise in Italy also saw special forces divers test underwater sensors that NATO said could one day be used to protect underwater infrastructure.
“That’s the only way to narrow the problem — to focus on the critical infrastructure, rather than trying to achieve wide area surveillance over an area like the Baltic,” Kaushal said.
But NATO ships will still be limited in what action they can take to stop damage occurring. “International freedom of navigation limits what navies can do on international waters, or even within their own exclusive economic zone,” Kaushal said.
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea does note that freedom of navigation may be challenged if a ship’s passage “is prejudicial to the peace, good order or security” of coastal states.
Historic agreements — like the 1884 Convention for the Protection of Submarine Telegraph Cables — might also offer allies some latitude to act against suspect vessels.
But challenging the passage of civilian shipping might have unwelcome consequences elsewhere. More muscular policing by NATO in the Baltic might encourage more assertive Chinese naval activity in the South China Sea, for example, or encourage more Iranian interdictions in the Persian Gulf.
“I think that’s something that nations, particularly Western nations, have shied away from,” Kaushal said.
Local allied leaders, at least, appear to be clamoring for action. December’s alleged attack is only the most recent of a spate of suspected sabotage incidents in the Baltic.
In November, two intersecting submarine cables — the BCS East-West Interlink connecting Lithuania to Sweden and the C-Lion1 fiber-optic cable connecting Germany to Finland — were damaged in the Baltic Sea.
Authorities suspected the Chinese-flagged cargo ship Yi Peng 3 of causing the damage. German, Swedish, Finnish and Danish officials boarded the ship off the Danish coast to inspect the vessel and question the crew. The Yi Peng 3 later set sail for Egypt.
The first notable alleged cable sabotage incident in the Baltic Sea occurred in October 2023, when the Hong Kong-flagged Newnew Polar Bear vessel dragged its anchor across and damaged the Balticconnector gas pipeline linking Estonia and Finland. The nearby EE-S1 telecoms cable was also damaged.
Investigators recovered a damaged ship’s anchor from the seabed close to the damaged cables, with gouge marks on either side of the cables indicating its trajectory. Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation said the Newnew Polar Bear was missing one of its anchors.
In August, the Chinese government admitted that the vessel damaged the underwater infrastructure “by accident,” citing “a strong storm.”
2025 in the Baltic theater
Even before ships began damaging cables in the Baltic region, the strategic sea — referred to by some allied leaders as the “NATO lake” after the accession of Sweden and Finland to the alliance — played host to covert operations apparently linked to Russia’s war on Ukraine.
The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines carrying natural gas from Russia to Germany were bombed in September 2022, marking the first notable incident of alleged sabotage in the Baltic Sea since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The pipelines had long been fiercely criticized by those in North America and Europe skeptical of Berlin’s business dealings with Moscow, particularly leaders in Ukraine and the Baltic region who saw the pipelines as a plank of Russian hybrid warfare.
Investigators are yet to establish who was responsible for the apparent sabotage to the pipelines, with a series of unconfirmed reports variously accusing Russia, the U.S. and Ukraine for the blasts. All have denied involvement.
The Baltic, then, is already an important theater in the wider showdown between Russia and the West.
The potential value for Russia is clear. With a handful of tankers, Moscow can force its NATO rivals to commit significant time and resources to guarding undersea infrastructure. When sabotage does occur, the Baltic’s relative ease of access and the energy needs of regional nations might amplify its impact.
“The gas grid in the area is not particularly well integrated with the rest of the European grid,” Kashaul noted. “In much of Europe, this would be a bit of a nuisance, but in the Baltic Sea limited sabotage — particularly to the gas pipelines — can actually have some pretty disproportionate effects.”
European nations are highly sensitive to gas outages given the knock on economic — and thus polling — effects. Energy insecurity has been one of the major themes undermining the continent’s response to Russia’s war. Moscow has been keen to exploit this weak spot.
But undersea escapades in the Baltic are not necessarily a free hit for Russia.
Moscow’s shadow operators have “thus far enjoyed the freedom of navigation and the ability to move Russian oil at above price cap rates quite freely through NATO controlled waters,” Kashaul said.
If NATO nations can demonstrate that sanctions-busting vessels are involved in sabotage, the ghost ships might yet face more tangible retaliation.
But that too could prompt escalation. A Danish intelligence report cited by Bloomberg, for example, noted that Russia may begin attaching military escorts to tankers transiting the Baltics.
Such a development is “quite plausible,” Kashaul said, though noted the intensity of regular convoy operations may be beyond Russia’s relatively small Baltic Fleet.
A more militarized approach, he added, may also unsettle the non-Russian nationals crewing the vessels.
“Whether the people on those ships want to take the risk, even if the Russians are offering escorts and convoys, is another factor,” Kashaul said.
ABC News’ Zoe Magee and Ellie Kaufman contributed to this report.
(NEW YORK) — A once long-dormant volcano in Iceland is erupting again and impacting activity in a populated region nearby.
The volcano, on the Reykjanes peninsula in southwestern Iceland, began erupting at Sundhnukar on Wednesday night and peaked at about 2 a.m. local time Thursday, according to the Icelandic Meteorological Office. It has prompted evacuations at the Blue Lagoon, an iconic tourist destination, and the nearby town of Grindavik.
West Iceland’s volcano is a rift activity volcano, which involves the earth being pulled apart in two different directions through the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, rather than a cone erupting magma through a central pipe, Thomas Algeo, a professor of earth sciences at the University of Cincinnati, told ABC News. The style of eruption is “much less dangerous, because most of the activity involves slow moving basaltic lava flows,” he added.
“It’s a style of volcanic activity that is effusive, slow flowing, not violently eruptive, like would be the case with a subduction zone volcanic system” Algeo said.
The fissure that was created on Wednesday night stretched about 1.8 miles long, according to the country’s meteorological office. This is the volcano’s seventh eruption this year, according to Iceland’s Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management.
These types of eruptions are “spectacular” sights, because once a fissure opens up, a large supply of magma oozes out, Tobias Fischer, director of the Volatiles Laboratory at the University of New Mexico, told ABC News.
The eruption activity is “typical” for these types of systems, said Shawn Willsey, a geology professor College of Southern Idaho who has been conducting livestream tours using drones above the lava flows on YouTube. Once the lava erupts, the pressure is relieved and magma starts to fill into the shallow storage zone below — repressurizing the system and setting the stage for the next eruption, Willsey said.
“It’s known that this region goes through these episodes where there are a lot of these eruptions,” said Fischer, who has flown drones into eruption gas clouds to collect samples and analyze the composition of the carbon for his research.
By Thursday afternoon, the lava had reached the parking lot of the Blue Lagoon and consumed a service building, The Associated Press reported. There is no danger to the area, and the flights out of the Keflavik International Airport have not been affected, according to the civil protection agency.
Gas emitted from the eruption is expected to move south and out to sea, according to emergency officials.
Video taken from Grindavik show rivers of fast-moving lava flowing from the rift zones, where the lava can be seen spewing from the ground.
The ongoing eruption is “significantly smaller” than the eruption that took place in August, according to the meteorological agency.
Iceland is known as a “hot spot” for volcanic activity, Algeo said.
There are 32 active volcano systems in the region spread across three rift zones spread to the north, south and west — all part of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, a mountain range that mostly runs down the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
But in Iceland, the mountain range comes above the ocean certain due to “an excessively high production of magma in that area,” Algeo said.
Iceland’s western rift zone, also known as the Reykjanes-Langjökull rift zone, was active prior to the 13th century. These types of eruptions tend to have every 1,000 or so years, Fischer said,
“The big question is, is this going to continue on for centuries?” Willsey said.
In 2021, the volcano in western Iceland became active again. There have been 10 eruptions since there, seven of which have occurred in 2024, according to Icelandic officials said.
During the last 800 years, the majority of volcanic activity were in the north and east volcanic zones — both lightly populated regions, Algeo said. But western Iceland, which includes the capital of Reykjavik, is highly populated.
“They were in a nice little valley up in the mountains, and so that lava was pretty well contained,” Willsey said, adding that lava in those regions are “tourist-friendly” eruptions that can be enjoyed with little threat.
The recent eruptions in western Iceland have damaged infrastructure and property and forced residents to relocate, according to AP.
Previous eruptions throughout history have caused destruction in Iceland, Algeo said.
A large eruption that took place in 1783, known as the Laki eruption, is one of the worst in recorded history. It spewed so much toxic volcanic gasses across the landscape that it killed off most of the local farm animals and reduced the harvest, leading to starvation for about 25% of the population, Algeo said.
Eruptions on the Reykjanes peninsula in December 2023 triggered toxic gas warnings, causing emergency managers to fear that the pollution would spread to the capital.
A disruptive eruption at the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in 2010 disrupted trans-Atlantic air travel for months due to ash being spewed into the air.
