Stock market teeters amid trade war, recession fears
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(NEW YORK) — U.S. stocks teetered in early trading on Wednesday, posting shaky performance amid an escalating global trade war and concerns about a possible recession.
After some initial modest gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 330 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.25%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq ticked up 0.25%.
Trading opened minutes after a fresh inflation report showed price increases had eased more than expected in February, the first full month under President Donald Trump.
Tit-for-tat tariffs continued to rattle global trade early Wednesday, however.
Trump’s 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum products went into effect overnight. In response, Canada and the European Union slapped retaliatory duties on U.S. goods.
Tesla, the electric carmaker run by Elon Musk, soared about 6% in early trading on Wednesday. The gains came a day after Trump touted the company alongside Musk in an event at the White House.
Some economists say that while the U.S. tariffs could boost the local steel industry in the United States, they could also lead to higher prices for industries that purchase steel. Those higher prices may eventually reach consumers.
The U.S. relies heavily on imported aluminum and those costs are expected go up as well.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
(WASHINGTON) — Consumer prices rose 2.9% in December compared to a year ago, ticking up from the previous month and extending a resurgent bout of inflation just days before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. The reading matched economists’ expectations.
The fresh data arrives after a jobs report last week showed stronger-than-expected hiring in December, which sent the stock market plummeting and bond yields soaring on fears that the Federal Reserve may delay long-forecasted interest rate cuts.
The Fed may find additional reason to delay those interest rate cuts in Wednesday’s report, since stubborn price hikes may raise concern that inflation would move even higher if interest rates were to be lowered.
The inflation reading in December marks an increase from year-over-year inflation of 2.7% in the month prior.
Core inflation — a closely watched measure that strips out volatile food and energy prices — increased 3.2% over the year ending in December, ticking lower than the previous month, the data showed.
Food prices rose 2.5% in December compared to a year ago, moving higher than the previous month but marking slower price increases than the overall inflation rate.
Prices increased for an array of goods last month, including shelter, airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, motor vehicle insurance, and medical care, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said. By contrast, prices dropped for personal care products and alcoholic beverages, as well as a host of foods, such as white bread, seafood and ice cream.
Egg prices continued to skyrocket in December due to an avian flu that has decimated supply in recent months. The price of eggs soared 36% compared to a year prior, data showed.
Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of more than 9% in June 2022, but price increases remain above the Fed’s target rate of 2%.
The Fed retreated in its fight against inflation over the final months of last year, lowering interest rates by a percentage point. Still, the Fed’s interest rate remains at a historically high level of between 4.25% and 4.5%. The Fed has already indicated worry about the resurgence of escalating inflation over the latter part of 2024.
Last month, the Fed predicted fewer rate cuts in 2025 than it had previously indicated, suggesting concern that inflation may prove more difficult to bring under control than policymakers thought just a few months ago.
Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank may proceed at a slower pace with future rate cuts, in part because it has now lowered interest rates a substantial amount.
Powell also said a recent resurgence of inflation influenced the Fed’s expectations, noting that some policymakers considered uncertainty tied to potential policy changes under Trump.
“It’s common-sense thinking that when the path is uncertain, you get a little slower,” Powell said. “It’s not unlike driving on a foggy night or walking around in a dark room full of furniture.”
Trump has proposed tariffs of between 60% and 100% on Chinese goods, and a tax of between 10% and 20% on every product imported from all U.S. trading partners.
Economists widely forecast that tariffs of this magnitude would increase prices paid by U.S. shoppers, since importers typically pass along a share of the cost of those higher taxes to consumers.
(DALLAS) — A shift is on the horizon at Southwest Airlines. The carrier known for its customer-friendly policies and affordable airfare announced changes to its baggage and fare structure in an effort to cater to a broader range of travelers.
While the low-cost airline has long stood out for offering two free checked bags for all passengers, starting May 28, some customers will see charges for checked baggage.
The most notable change from the Dallas-based carrier that was announced Tuesday impacts those not holding certain status levels with Southwest’s Rapid Rewards program.
Southwest Airlines will continue to offer two free checked bags to Rapid Rewards A-List Preferred Members as well as its Business Select travelers.
A-List Members and other select customers will still receive one free checked bag, the airline said. However, those without qualifying status will now face a charge for their first and second checked bags, subject to weight and size limitations.
“We have tremendous opportunity to meet current and future customer needs, attract new customer segments we don’t compete for today, and return to the levels of profitability that both we and our shareholders expect,” President and CEO Bob Jordan said.
Why Southwest is changing baggage fees?
For passengers traveling on lower-priced fares, such as Wanna Get Away or Wanna Get Away Plus, the changes outlined reflect a move toward more targeted options for a range of travelers from budget conscious to frequent flyers, which the airline hinted at in December.
Southwest Rapid Rewards program points changes, assigned seats and more
In addition to the new baggage fees, Southwest’s Rapid Rewards program will also have some changes for earning points.
Customers who fly Business Select will earn more points, while those on lower-tier options — like Wanna Get Away fares — will earn fewer.
The airline is also introducing a new Basic fare category for the lowest-priced tickets starting May 28 ahead of rolling out assigned seating and extra legroom options.
“We’re evolving our business to create more choice for our current and future customers,” Jordan said.
Southwest is working to expand its reach with flights now available to book through Expedia, and an industry-standard partnership with Icelandair.
Flight credits issued for tickets purchased on or after May 28 will expire one year or earlier from the date of ticketing, depending on the fare type purchased.
(NEW YORK) — President Donald Trump’s tariffs sent stocks tumbling in recent weeks, but the uncertainty helped propel a different asset viewed as a safe haven: gold.
The price of gold topped $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever last week, and the precious metal continued to hover around that mark in early trading on Monday.
Gold prices have soared 12% so far this year, while the S&P 500 has plummeted nearly 7%. Over that period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has tumbled 8.5%.
The rush toward gold makes financial sense, experts said. The asset offers investors a hedge against uncertain stock performance, since gold prices often display a degree of independence from movements in equities markets.
However, gold prices carry volatility of their own, some experts added, especially when buyers enter the market at a high point, risking losses instead of providing a security blanket. “Investors need to be careful,” Campbell Harvey, a professor at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business who studies commodity prices, told ABC News.
“At a time of heightened uncertainty, people look toward a safe haven – and gold is a perceived safe haven. But most people don’t realize that gold is volatile,” Harvey added.
The run-up in gold prices comes amid a market slump set off by an escalating global trade war.
Last week, the S&P 500 closed down more than 10% since its high in February, meaning the decline officially qualified as a market correction. It marked the index’s first correction since October 2023. At the same time, the Dow suffered its worst one-week drop-off since 2023.
“Right now, it’s a very anxious marketplace,” Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals, told ABC News. “That’s been a detriment for stock-market bulls and a boom for gold-market bulls.”
The flight to gold in moments of market crisis draws on decades of evidence, according to an analysis co-authored by Harvey in 2020. The price of gold moved higher during seven of the last nine major stock market selloffs stretching back to the late 1980s, researchers found.
“It’s a good track record, but it’s not a sure thing,” Harvey said. “Even though it went up seven out of nine of these drawdown periods, that doesn’t mean it will be seven out of nine in the next nine drawdowns.”
Last week, Paris-based financial firm BNP Paribas raised its forecast for gold prices, predicting the precious metal would exceed $3,100 an ounce. The company attributed the rosy outlook to economic uncertainty incited by Trump, but it warned such gains would likely fizzle out by the second half of this year.
“The gold market will price in or normalize Trump-driven trade risks, as it typically does with geopolitical risk,” BNP Paribas said in a report shared with ABC News. “Thus, if there is no ongoing escalation in trade tensions, gold prices will, in our view, struggle to maintain further upside momentum.”
Some experts who spoke to ABC News acknowledged the current price boom may eventually lose steam, but they still encouraged investors to add the precious metal to their portfolios as a means of offsetting the heightened risk of stocks.
“Gold offers diversification,” Trevor Yates, an analyst at investment firm Global X, told ABC News. “We see gold warranting a place in the portfolio.”
Investors who add gold for the sake of diversifying their portfolio, however, may want to add other assets alongside it, such as Treasury bonds or real estate, Harvey said.
“There are other safe assets besides gold,” Harvey said. “Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket.”
