Fed to make interest rate decision for 1st time since war with Iran spiked oil prices
Construction on the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building on March 10, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Al Drago/Getty Images)
(WASHINGTON) — The Federal Reserve will unveil on Wednesday its latest decision on interest rates, marking the first such move since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran drove up gasoline prices and risked a wider bout of inflation.
The elevated price increases coincide with a slowdown of economic growth, threatening to intensify an economic double-whammy known as “stagflation,” which poses difficulty for the Fed.
If the Fed opts to lower borrowing costs, it could spur growth but risk higher inflation. On the other hand, the choice to raise interest rates may slow price increases but raises the likelihood of a cooldown in economic performance.
Markets are expecting the Fed to hold interest rates steady. Investors peg the chances of interest rates being left unchanged at about 99%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
The central bank maintained the current level of interest rates at its most recent meeting in January, ending a string of three consecutive quarter-point rate cuts.
The benchmark rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
A lackluster jobs report last week showed the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, which marked a reversal of fortunes for the labor market and erased most of the job gains recorded in 2026.
The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% in January to 4.4% in February, the BLS said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.
A revised government report last week on gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at a sluggish annualized pace of 0.7% over the final three months of 2025.
Those economic headwinds helped set the conditions before the outbreak of war with Iran, which spiked oil prices and risked price increases for a host of diesel-fuel transported goods.
U.S. crude oil prices hovered at about $96 per barrel on Tuesday, soaring more than 50% since a month earlier.
Since the military conflict began, U.S. gas prices had gone up 81 cents to an average of $3.79 per gallon as of Tuesday, according to AAA.
The rate decision on Wednesday will also mark the first such move since a federal judge blocked Justice Department subpoenas to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors after determining the government “produced essentially zero evidence” to support a criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, according to an unsealed court opinion.
“A mountain of evidence suggests that the Government served these subpoenas on the Board to pressure its Chair into voting for lower interest rates or resigning,” U.S. District Judge James Boasberg said in his opinion on Friday.
Acting U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro blasted Boasberg as an “activist” judge and pledged to appeal his ruling.
An F/A-18E Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron 151, prepares to make an arrested landing on the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in support of Operation Epic Fury, March 2, 2026. (U.S. Navy)
President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff revealed in an interview this week that Iranian negotiators told him in the lead-up to the U.S.-Israeli military operation in Iran that they had enough enriched uranium to “make 11 nuclear bombs.”
But since the major combat operations were launched on Saturday with the intent of crushing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the administration has yet to publicly produce any concrete evidence on the whereabouts of the nuclear material or who is in control of it. The Israel Defense Forces claimed that at least 40 top military commanders were killed in the opening strikes of the conflict.
In an interview on Fox News, Witkoff told host Sean Hannity that as soon as he and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, sat down with the Iranian negotiators for denuclearization talks last month, their counterparts spoke of their stockpile of enriched uranium.
“Jared and I opened up with the Iranian negotiators telling us they had the inalienable right to enrich all the nuclear fuel they possessed,” Witkoff said. “We, of course, responded that the president feels we have the inalienable right to stop you in your tracks.”
Witkoff claimed the Iranian negotiators openly shared details about their supply of nuclear material.
“In that first meeting, both the Iranian negotiators said to us directly with, you know, no shame, that they controlled 460 kilograms of 60% [enriched uranium] and they’re aware that that could make 11 nuclear bombs,” Witkoff said.
Witkoff said the 60% enriched uranium can be brought to weapons-grade in about a week and that the 20% enriched uranium can be brought to weapons-grade in three to four weeks.
“They manufacture their own centrifuges to enrich this material,” Witkoff said. “So, there’s almost no stopping them. They have an endless supply of it.”
The statement appears to contradict what the Pentagon said last summer about Iran’s ability to develop weapons-grade uranium following U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities.
In July 2025, Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s chief spokesperson, said at a news conference that that the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June set back Iran’s capability to develop a nuclear weapon by “closer to two years.”
“It’s not just … enriched uranium or centrifuges or things like that. We destroyed the components that they would need to build a bomb,” Parnell said at the time.
But on Tuesday, that assessment fell to the wayside as the administration defended the U.S. military operation by insisting Iran posed an imminent threat to Americans. A senior administration official told reporters in a briefing that among the factors in the operation was that Iran had the ability to rebuild those components destroyed in the bombing, including its own centrifuges.
The official said a lot of the enriched uranium remained mostly in Isfahan with some still at Natanz and Fordo.
“It can be a long and cumbersome process in extracting it and covering it up,” the official said. “I think the first question is, where is it? The second question is, how do we get to it, and how do we get physical control? And then after that, it would be a decision of the president and department, the Department of War, CIA, as to whether we wanted to physically transport it or dilute it on premises.”
Iran has stated numerous times that it doesn’t want nuclear weapons, but believes it has the right to use nuclear power for civilian purpose. It had also been part of a nuclear deal with the U.S., which Trump withdrew from during his first term.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told ABC’s “This Week” anchor George Stephanopoulos on Sunday that the attack on his country was “unprovoked and unwarranted.” He said Iran was negotiating with the United States in good faith prior to the attacks.
“A deal was at our reach, and we left Geneva happily with the understanding that we can reach a deal next time we meet,” Araghchi said.
In their two public briefings on “Operation Epic Fury” in Iran, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, did not address what has become of Iran’s nuclear material since the widespread military strikes began on Saturday.
In several speeches since the attacks commenced, Trump has also not been specific about the status of Iran’s nuclear material.
Hegseth, Caine, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Secretary of State Marco Rubio conducted a closed-door briefing with members of the U.S. Senate and House on the Iran operation on Tuesday afternoon.
In a letter sent on Monday to the administration’s briefers, five top House Democrats — including Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Rep. Adam Smith, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee — asked for information on nuclear security in Iran.
“Who currently controls Iran’s nuclear facilities and materials, and what safeguards are in place to prevent diversion or proliferation, or complete loss of control?” the Democratic lawmakers asked in their letter.
But following the briefing, Meeks said the briefers offered few answers.
“Here we are again without answers. Here we are again without complete transparency,” Meeks said. “Here we are again trying to go around Congress.”
Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., said the briefers provided “no additional” information on the imminent threat that prompted the military operation, adding, “There’s nothing that we got that you don’t have.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., challenged any suggestion that the Trump administration was unclear during their briefing with House members about their objectives in Iran.
“This is really a very simple matter. It’s about the building of ballistic missiles. That’s what Iran was engaged in, and they were doing it at a speed and in a scale that was exceeding the ability of our regional allies to respond appropriately,” Johnson said. “This created an imminent and serious threat. It also gave them cover to continue with their nuclear ambitions.”
Johnson added, “As you know, we tried very hard to negotiate with them about that nuclear enrichment of uranium … and the buildup of their missiles was so important and so serious that the President of the United States, this president, thought that it was a great enough threat that we needed to act.”
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, said in a social media post on Tuesday that, based on the latest available satellite imagery, it “can now confirm some recent damage to entrance buildings of Iran’s underground Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant [FEP].”
“No radiological consequence expected and no additional impact detected at FEP itself, which was severely damaged in the June conflict,” the IAEA said in the post.
In June 2025, the U.S. and Israeli militaries launched “Operation Midnight Hammer,” targeting three of Iran’s nuclear facilities — Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan — with “bunker-buster” bombs, according to the White House.
At the time, Trump said the operation “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s key uranium enrichment sites.
In a speech on Monday at the White House, Trump said that after “Operation Midnight Hammer,” Iran attempted to rebuild its nuclear facilities in another location, “because they were unable to use the ones we so powerfully blew up.”
“In addition, the regime’s conventional ballistic missile program was growing rapidly and dramatically, and this posed a very clear, colossal threat to America and our forces stationed overseas,” Trump said. “The purpose of this fast-growing missile program was to shield their nuclear weapon development and make it extraordinarily difficult for anyone to stop them from making these highly forbidden, by us, nuclear weapons.”
The Institute for Science and International Security said in a statement on Tuesday that its analysis of satellite imagery indicates the Natanz nuclear complex, Iran’s main uranium enrichment site, was struck twice during Saturday’s joint U.S.-Israeli attack.
Neither the Trump administration nor the Israeli government have confirmed the alleged strikes on the Natanz complex.
Meanwhile, Israel targeted a compound near Tehran linked to the regime’s nuclear weapons “capabilities,” the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in statement Tuesday.
After the U.S. targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities last year, Israel, which participated in the operation under the code-name “Rising Lion,” continued to track scientists connected to the Iran’s nuclear weapons program “and located their new location at this site in a manner that enabled a precise strike on the covert underground compound,” the statement said.
“The strike removes a key component in the Iranian regime’s capability to develop nuclear weapons and joins a series of strikes conducted during Operation ‘Rising Lion’ that were essential to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat,” the IDF said.
-ABC News’ Mary Kekatos and Jordana Miller contributed to this report.
: Savannah Guthrie and mother Nancy Guthrie on Thursday, June 15, 2023 — (Photo by: Nathan Congleton/NBC via Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Faced with a demand for a bitcoin ransom and a Monday deadline by someone claiming to be her mother’s kidnapper, “Today” host Savannah Guthrie and her siblings over the weekend solemnly pledged to pay for the return of their mother, Nancy.
“We received your message and we understand,” Savannah Guthrie said in a message posted to Instagram. “We beg you now to return our mother to us so we can celebrate with her. This is the only way we will have peace. This is very valuable to us, and we will pay.”
Nancy Guthrie, 84, was last seen Jan. 31, and authorities have said they believe she was abducted from her home near Tucson, Arizona.
“We are aware of the video posted by the Guthrie family. But don’t have any additional information to share,” a spokesperson for Pima Sheriff said in a statement to ABC News on Saturday following the release of the latest video from the family.
The message Savannah Guthrie references in her new Instagram post is the same message the FBI and Pima Sheriff said they were studying Friday, according to a source familiar with the investigation.
Investigators have not confirmed the authenticity of the latest message, which was received by a Tucson television station, nor any of the other ransom notes mentioning Nancy Guthrie, according to the source.
Investigators have returned repeatedly to the home of Annie Guthrie, Nancy’s other daughter, were Nancy enjoyed dinner and a Saturday game night before returning to her home a few minutes away.
Investigators have also returned to Nancy’s home, where they’ve examined rooftop cameras, towed away a car and made inquiries of neighbors.
The sheriff’s department said, “This remains an active and ongoing investigation,” but added that, after more than a week, “Investigators have not identified any suspects, persons of interest, or vehicles connected to this case.”
ABC News’ Nadine El-Bawab contributed to this report.
Mayor Mamdani speaks at a press conference after a 7-month-old child was fatally shot in Brooklyn, New York, on April 1, 2026. (NYPD)
(NEW YORK) — A 21-year-old will be placed under arrest in his hospital bed on charges he murdered a baby in Brooklyn by a stray bullet, the New York City Police Department said Thursday.
Amare Green allegedly fired shots from the back of a moped into a crowd in Williamsburg that struck and killed 7-month-old Kaori Patterson-Moore and grazed her 2-year-old brother as they sat in a stroller on Wednesday afternoon.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani called it a “devastating shooting” and said, “My heart aches for the parents impacted,” at a press conference on Thursday.
Green is a known associate of a street gang operating out of a public housing project in Brooklyn, NYPD Chief of Detectives Joe Kenny said. Investigators are looking into whether the baby’s father may have been the intended target as part of a dispute with a rival gang.
New York City Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said detectives have identified the moped driver, but she declined to release a name. The driver is at large.
Tisch mentioned the impending arrest in a crime that shocked the city as she touted a continued drop in crime.
The shooting was reported at about 1:20 p.m. on the corner of Humboldt and Moore streets in the East Williamsburg area, according to police.
Several adults, including two people with strollers, and several other children, were nearby when two males approached the intersection on a moped, Tisch said. The rear passenger on the moped pulled out a gun and fired at least two shots toward the corner, Tisch told reporters, citing surveillance video.
“Today our city suffered a horrifying, senseless tragedy: a 7-month-old child being pushed in a stroller along a busy Brooklyn sidewalk was shot and killed in broad daylight,” the police commissioner said.
The baby was taken to the hospital, where she was pronounced dead.
After the shooting, the two suspects collided with an oncoming car about two blocks away, police said. Both men were thrown from the moped. The rear passenger, who fits the description of the shooter, was taken to the hospital and is in police custody, Tisch said.
The other passenger took off, but police later located the moped.
Mamdani called the shooting a “devastating reminder” of the work that remains to be done to combat gun violence.
“A life that had barely begun was taken in an instant,” Mamdani said. “There are no words that can mend the heartbreak this family is feeling now.”
