Federal Reserve expected to hold interest rates steady
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve on December 10, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday is set to announce its latest decision on the level of interest rates, marking its first rate move since news surfaced of a federal criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The investigation ratcheted up an extraordinary clash between the nation’s top central banker and the White House, which has urged the Fed to significantly reduce interest rates.
The central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday. The anticipated move would end a string of three consecutive quarter-point rate cuts, aligning with a cautious approach outlined by Powell last month, before reports of the investigation into his conduct.
“We’re well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves,” Powell said at a press conference in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 10.
Futures markets expect two quarter-point interest rate cuts this year, forecasting the first in June and a second in the fall, according to CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
The federal probe appears to center on Powell’s testimony to Congress last year about cost overruns in a multi-billion-dollar office renovation project. Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017, issued a rare video message earlier this month rebuking the investigation as a politically motivated effort to influence the Fed’s interest rate policy.
The investigation follows months of strident criticism leveled at the Fed by Trump. The president denied any involvement in the criminal investigation during a brief interview with NBC News hours after the Fed posted Powell’s video.
Over the past year, hiring has slowed dramatically while inflation has remained elevated, risking an economic double-whammy known as “stagflation.” Those conditions have put the Fed in a difficult position.
The central bank must balance a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. To address pressure on both of its goals, the Fed primarily holds a single tool: interest rates.
The strain on both sides of the Fed’s mandate presents a “challenging situation” for the central bank, Powell noted last month.
“There’s no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals,” Powell said.
If the Fed raises interest rates as a means of protecting against elevated inflation, it risks a deeper slowdown of the labor market. On the other hand, by lowering rates to stimulate hiring, the Fed threatens to boost spending and worsen inflation.
The criminal investigation into Powell raised concern among some analysts and former top Fed officials, who said it poses a threat to central bank independence.
In the event a central bank loses independence, policymakers tend to favor lower interest rates as a means of boosting short-term economic activity, analysts previously told ABC News. Such a posture could pose a major risk of yearslong inflation fueled by a rise in consumer demand, untethered by interest rates.
Federal law allows the president to remove the Fed chair for “cause” — though no precedent exists for such an ouster. Powell’s term as chair is set to expire in May, but he can remain on the Fed’s policymaking board until 2028. Powell has not indicated whether he intends to remain on the board.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated, and will be updated again with the Fed’s rate decision.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — The S&P 500 hit a record high on Wednesday as the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran entered its second week, appearing to boost hopes of a resolution to the Middle East conflict.
The uptick in markets came hours after President Donald Trump reiterated his desire to wind down the conflict, saying the war is “very close to over” in a portion of an interview with Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo that aired on Tuesday.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.5% on Wednesday, registering at 7,005.78 points. The index reached a previous high of 7,002.28 points on Jan. 28.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 125 points, or 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq increased 1.1%.
Markets have swung dramatically over the weeks following the start of the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, as investors weathered a historic global oil shock and digested mixed signals from Trump.
Stocks moved higher on a largely consistent basis in April, however, in response to an apparent willingness on the part of both sides to end fighting and negotiate a temporary truce.
The U.S. continues to mount a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, exerting pressure on Tehran by choking off a key source of revenue.
On Wednesday, the commander of the Khatam Al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of Iran’s armed forces said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is a “violation of the ceasefire,” in a statement published by the official Islamic Republic News Agency.
The war prompted Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global supply of oil and natural gas.
The disruption amounted to the “most severe oil supply shock in history,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a new report on Tuesday. Oil and gasoline prices soared, prompting some economists to warn of a possible recession.
U.S. oil prices have fallen from a recent peak achieved in the early days of the war, but costs remain nearly 40% higher than pre-war levels.
U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan over the weekend failed to secure a peace deal. Trump said that Iran’s alleged unwillingness to abandon its nuclear program was the key sticking point, and that the U.S. would respond with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which began Monday.
Israel, meanwhile, has continued ground operations and intense strikes in Lebanon, where it is engaged with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supported the ceasefire with Iran, but that Lebanon was not covered by the agreement, despite Iranian protests.
ABC News’ David Brennan, Meredith Deliso, and Nadine El-Bawab contributed to this report.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. (Li Yuanqing/Xinhua via Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — An inflation report on Tuesday is set to provide a key gauge of the nation’s economy, just days after reports of a Department of Justice probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell brought fresh scrutiny to the independence of the central bank and its capacity to manage price increases.
Economists expect year-over-year inflation to have been left unchanged at 2.7% in December. Inflation stands at its lowest level since July, but it remains nearly a percentage point higher than the Fed’s target rate of 2%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Prices for some high-profile items like coffee and beef continue to soar.
Coffee prices jumped nearly 19% year-over-year in November, the most recent month for which data is available. Beef prices climbed almost 16% over that span. Egg prices plummeted in November, however, falling 13% compared to the previous year.
The onset of elevated inflation alongside sluggish hiring in recent months had put the Fed in a difficult position, even before the DOJ opened a probe into Powell.
The central bank must balance a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. To address pressure on both of its goals, the Fed primarily holds a single tool: interest rates.
The Fed cut interest rates at three consecutive meetings late last year in an effort to boost the flagging labor market. Still, borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The criminal probe into Powell appears to center on allegations of false testimony he made about cost overruns in a renovation of the Fed’s headquarters during a congressional hearing in June.
Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017, issued a rare video message on Sunday night rebuking the investigation as a politically motivated effort to influence the Fed’s interest rate policy.
A bipartisan group of economists and former top Fed officials on Monday issued a joint statement condemning the probe as an attempt to undermine the Fed’s political independence.
The investigation follows months of strident criticism leveled at the Fed by President Donald Trump, who has urged the central bank to significantly reduce interest rates. Trump denied any involvement in the criminal investigation during a brief interview with NBC News on Sunday night.
In a statement to ABC News, a spokesperson for Attorney General Pam Bondi said, “The Attorney General has instructed her U.S. Attorneys to prioritize investigating any abuse of taxpayer dollars.”
A longstanding norm of independence usually insulates the Fed from direct political interference.
In the event a central bank lacks independence, policymakers tend to favor lower interest rates as a means of boosting short-term economic activity, analysts previously told ABC News. But, they added, that posture poses a major risk in the possibility of years-long inflation fueled by a rise in consumer demand, untethered by interest rates.
Stocks closed higher on Monday, shrugging off a dip earlier in the day after reports of the DOJ probe into Powell.
Treasury yields, however, also ticked up on Monday, suggesting possible concern about the Fed’s ability to constrain inflation.
Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks devaluing the asset and, in turn, makes bonds less attractive. When bond prices fall due to a drop in demand for Treasuries, bond yields rise.
Ships are anchored along the shoreline of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, April 22, 2026 in Bandar Abbas, Iran. (Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Thousands of canceled flights in Europe over a spike in jet fuel prices. An energy emergency declaration in the Philippines. A two-week school holiday in Pakistan to conserve fuel used by commuters.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran triggered dramatic steps in a slew of countries bent on weathering one of the worst oil shocks in history, stoking concern by some about a possible global recession.
Economists disagree about whether the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz will ultimately drive the world’s economy into a downturn, in part because the duration of the waterway’s effective closure remains murky. The outcome holds implications for the livelihoods of billions of people and the performance of companies big and small across the globe.
Some analysts said they fear the oil shortage will soon become so dire that crude prices could rise sharply driving up costs for an array of goods and hammering shoppers. The fallout could squeeze businesses and shrink growth, they said.
Others proved more optimistic, pointing to a smaller rise in oil prices than some feared and a recent track record of economic resilience in the face of trade wars and other turmoil. A worldwide downturn, they said, would require a much more prolonged closure of the strait.
“The longer this drags on, the costlier it becomes,” Ryan Sweet, chief global economist at Oxford Economics, told ABC News.
Still, Sweet added: “Whether or not this will cause a global recession, it’s premature to say.”
The conflict, which began on Feb. 28, prompted Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global supply of oil and natural gas.
The vast majority of oil that passes through the strait is bound for Asian markets. But since oil prices are set on a global market, prices have climbed for just about everyone as buyers chase fewer barrels of crude.
On Tuesday, Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran, averting a resumption of wide hostilities, although the move left the strait under Iran’s effective control. The U.S., meanwhile, has mounted a blockade of Iranian ports in the strait, squeezing a key source of government funds derived from oil exports, while exacerbating the global petroleum shortage.
The Brent futures price, the benchmark index for global oil trading, registered at about $106 a barrel on Friday. That price stood about 50% higher than its pre-war level.
Higher oil and gasoline prices risk a pinch at the pump, as well as additional costs for just about every product delivered across the globe on trucks or ships that run on diesel fuel.
“Oil feeds into inflation, which reduces raw purchasing power — how much bang for their buck people have,” Sweet said. “That slows the economy.”
Still, oil prices remain below the highs reached after some previous economic shocks. In 2022, the price of Brent crude surged above $139 per barrel in March, just weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. During the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. gasoline prices shot up as high as $147 a barrel.
Some economic forecasts issued in recent weeks projected that global economic growth could escape the crisis relatively unscathed, as long as the war reaches a resolution in short order and oil prices avoid a steeper climb.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) last month predicted that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth would “remain broadly stable” at 2.9% in 2026. That forecast matched projections issued by the OECD in December, before the war.
The OECD touted strong tech investment and lower-than-expected tariffs, citing “carry-over from robust outcomes in 2025.”
Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that GDP growth would register at a solid pace of 3.1% in 2026, noting that the global economy had withstood “higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty last year.”
The forecasts from the OECD and IMF worked under the assumption of a resolution to the conflict by the middle of this year, acknowledging the impact could worsen if it stretches on for longer.
Some economists, by contrast, consider the economic threat a more urgent risk.
Paul Krugman, an economics professor at the City University of New York Graduate Center and a former columnist at the New York Times, criticized the IMF projection on Substack on Monday, faulting the group for “seriously underestimating how badly the global economy could be hit.”
“In my view, a full-on global recession is more likely than not if the Strait remains closed for, say, another three months, which seems all too possible,” he said.
Rosier forecasts fail to adequately factor in the risk of a significant rise in oil prices over the near term, Krugman said, warning of widespread “demand destruction” as oil becomes increasingly scarce. Under such a scenario, a surge in oil prices would make it unaffordable for many buyers, forcing them to find alternatives or forgo energy use altogether.
Technical definitions vary about what constitutes a global recession, but the gist is a period of sluggish or negative economic growth. For the World Bank, a global recession amounts to a contraction in global per capita GDP; while the IMF considers GDP growth below 2% sufficient to warrant the label of a recession.
A six-month impasse in the strait could push global oil prices as high as $190 in August, Oxford Economics said in a blog post last month. That price shock would send global inflation to 7.7%, near its peak in 2022, the independent economic advisory firm said.
“But unlike 2022, when the global economy kept growing through the price shock, the severity of this disruption tips the world into outright contraction,” Oxford Economics added.
In addition to its optimistic baseline projection, the IMF issued a downbeat prediction in the event of a more severe disruption of oil markets that stretches into next year. Under those circumstances, the global economy “would come close to experiencing a recession,” the IMF said, noting that it defines a global recession as annual GDP growth below 2%.
Growth below 2% has happened four times since 1980, the group said.
Across the board, economists acknowledged a high degree of uncertainty as the Iran war unfolds. Plus, some said, the negative effects will be unevenly distributed, hitting harder in low-income countries as well as those who depend on oil that passes through the strait.
While the full extent of economic wreckage remains unknown, the prospect of an extended global impact is all but certain, Sweet said.
“This will take a long time to get back up to resembling anything close to normal,” he added.
