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(NEW YORK) — A significant change in the atmosphere means the weeks after Thanksgiving could be colder and snowier than normal across portions of the United States.

It’s all thanks to a disruption in the polar vortex. Here’s what you need to know.

Why is this happening?

Our atmosphere consists of many layers of moving air; the troposphere is where our weather happens and above it is the stratosphere. Over both poles, a ring of strong mid-level winds called the polar vortex traps cold, sub-arctic air.

There are two of these polar vortexes — one in the troposphere that affects weather every winter, and one in the stratosphere that contains much colder air but only affects the surface weather during winter less frequently.

When polar vortex winds are strong, this frigid air remains near the poles. But when the polar vortex is weak and is disturbed, the frigid air can spill out from the North Pole, down south towards the surface.

Scientists are still trying to understand these disturbances and why they occur, but they can drive the most intense cold-air outbreaks and winter weather bursts in the U.S.

Sometimes, the polar vortex simply stretches out, bringing quick bursts of cold air and some wintry weather to the U.S. In more extreme cases, a phenomenon called “sudden stratospheric warming” — or SSWs — can trigger more significant disruptions to the polar vortex.

While it may seem counterintuitive, a sudden warming in the stratosphere above the poles often weakens these winds, disrupting the polar vortex and allowing cold air to spill out from the North Pole and down into places like the U.S., Europe and Asia.

These events can take weeks to unfold and can have cascading impacts. Some of these events can lead to strong cold outbreaks and snowier spells, while others have little impact near the surface.

According to Dr. Amy Butler, a meteorologist and lead of the Stratospheric Modeling & Analysis program at National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, SSWs occur once every other winter, But “there are only one to two major events in late November in the record back to 1958.”

“We have this unprecedented disruption in the polar architecture where it’s so early in the season … There’s not many past analogs to draw from and say [with confidence] about how this is going to go,” said Dr. Judah Cohen, a climatologist at MIT and the director of seasonal forecasting for Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) at the JANUS Research Group.

Cohen added that an SSW is not a given yet and that we could simply see the polar vortex be stretched out past Thanksgiving, but it would still result in a noticeable change to colder and possibly more wintry weather for parts of the U.S.

La Niña will also play a role in this pattern shift, as will the forecasted weather conditions for the winter ahead.

“With North America, we have a weak La Nina and other patterns in the Pacific that have a direct influence on the weather as well,” said Dr. Jason Furtado, associate professor in the School of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. Furtado also added that these, consequently, lead to a higher chance of a colder December.

What does it mean for the forecast?

Long-range forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center favor below-average temperatures for the majority of America from late November into December.

However, this outlook deals with average temperatures over the period, so they don’t account for short-term variations that occur over days or weeks — meaning there could be a cold snap for a few days then warmth for the rest of the period, with the average leveling out or warmer.

What does it mean for snow?

These disturbances to the polar vortex can plunge cold air south and often create more chances for snow. However, the relationship between these two is not as straightforward.

According to NOAA, this pattern change supports more winter-like conditions across the central U.S. and increase the potential for heavy snow. Specifically, the increased potential for heavy snowfalls along the Great Lakes, a region historically known for lake-effect snow.

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(DEDHAM, Mass.) — Closing arguments are expected to be delivered Friday in the murder trial of Brian Walshe, a father of three accused of killing and dismembering his wife.

The Massachusetts man is accused of killing his wife, 39-year-old Ana Walshe, around New Year’s Day in 2023. He pleaded guilty last month, ahead of the trial, to lying to police following her disappearance and improperly disposing of her body, though he denies that he killed his wife and has pleaded not guilty to murder. Ana Walshe’s body has not been found.

The defense rested on Thursday without calling any witnesses. Judge Diane Freniere noted in court on Thursday that it appeared that Brian Walshe would testify in his defense, based on the defense’s opening statement. Though he ultimately waived his right.

During the trial’s opening statements last week, defense attorneys said that Brian Walshe found his wife dead in bed on New Year’s Day in 2023 and then panicked and lied to police as they investigated her disappearance — but maintained he did not kill her.

Prosecutors allege Brian Walshe killed and dismembered his wife, then disposed of her remains in dumpsters. The internet history on his devices on Jan. 1, 2023, included searches such as “best way to dispose of a body,” “how long for someone to be missing to inherit,” and “best way to dispose of body parts after a murder,” prosecutors said.

Evidence presented during the two-week trial included surveillance footage of a man believed to be Brian Walshe buying tools and other supplies at a Lowe’s on Jan. 1, 2023. A receipt showed that items, including a hacksaw, utility knife, hammer, snips, Tyvek suit, shoeguards, rags and cleaning supplies totaling $462 were purchased with cash.

Additional surveillance footage presented in court showed someone throwing out trash bags at dumpsters on multiple days in early January.

Several blood-stained items recovered from dumpsters by investigators — including a hacksaw, a piece of rug, a towel, hairs and an unknown tissue — were linked to Ana Walshe through DNA testing, a forensic scientist from the Massachusetts State Police Crime Laboratory testified during the trial.

Blood was also found in the basement of the family’s rental home in Cohasset, another forensic scientist with the crime lab testified.

Ana Walshe was reported missing by her employer on Jan. 4, 2023. Brian Walshe told police at the time that she had a “work emergency” at her job in Washington, D.C. and left their Cohasset home on New Year’s Day, according to video of his interview shown in court.

At the time, Brian Walshe and their three children were living in Massachusetts while he was awaiting sentencing in a federal fraud case after pleading guilty to a scheme to sell counterfeit Andy Warhol paintings.

Ahead of the murder trial, Brian Walshe admitted to lying to police amid her disappearance and improperly disposing of her body. His defense said during opening statements that he panicked after finding her dead in bed, calling her death sudden and unexplained.

Jurors heard testimony, including from a D.C. man with whom Ana Walshe was having an affair, that the mother of three was upset about being away from her children so much, and that there was stress in the marriage. The defense maintained that the couple were happy.

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(MINNEAPOLIS) — Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on Thursday said that in the aftermath of the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis on Saturday, federal officials issued public statements about the incident based on “the best information” they had at the time and “what we knew to be true on the ground.”

Noem previously suggested on the day of the shooting that the agents’ actions were justified, claiming at a press briefing that Pretti had “attacked” officers and was “wishing to inflict harm” on them. But appearing Thursday on Fox News, Noem offered no evidence to support such claims, saying instead that the scene was “chaotic.”

After her initial statements, Minnesota officials were quick to push back on her public comments, pointing to the multiple videos from witnesses which appeared to tell a different story.

She said the FBI is now leading the investigation, though officials previously said DHS was investigating, with assistance from the FBI.

Noem’s shift in tone comes amid growing criticism of how quickly officials characterized the shooting. Some critics told ABC News that issuing definitive conclusions following immigration enforcement shootings is “incredibly irresponsible” and may undermine the long-term credibility of federal agencies.

The critics warned that rushing to label suspects as “domestic terrorists” — as White House adviser Stephen Miller and Noem did in the aftermath of the shooting deaths of Alex Pretti and Renee Good — or declaring shootings justified before evidence is reviewed represents a departure from the norm.

“It’s just incredibly irresponsible to rush to conclusions,” said John Sandweg, the former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement during the Obama administration.  “When you have a senior adviser to the president and the cabinet secretary saying, ‘These are the facts, this is what happened’ … you’ve now undermined all the credibility and really made it impossible for the public to have confidence in that investigation.”

‘Public trust is everything’
An ABC News review of several recent incidents involving federal immigration agents found a consistent pattern: high-level officials publicized findings within hours of gunfire, only for those initial accounts to be challenged later by body camera footage, witness videos or court filings.

In at least five major cases, officials appeared to make public declarations about the incidents before formal investigations had reached final conclusions about those assertions.

“Public trust is everything to these agencies, and it just destroys them when you tell something that is so visibly and obviously contradicted by the video evidence,” Sandweg said.

Jason Houser, a former ICE chief of staff under the Biden administration, told ABC News that the rush to conclusions suggests the focus has shifted away from public safety toward a political narrative.

“It just shows that this is about the political debate. It’s not about actually arresting the most convicted criminals,” Houser said. “It should … create a lot of distrust that can tear at the core trust in law enforcement, especially federal law enforcement.”

In response to questions regarding the swiftness of the administration’s public comments and  the information released following major incidents, a DHS spokesperson said, “DHS follows proper legal processes and protocols for all statements disseminated by the Department.”

What Pretti video shows
In the shooting involving Pretti, DHS officials released a detailed statement just two and a half hours after the incident, claiming he “approached” officers with a handgun. Miller labeled Pretti a “domestic terrorist” and a “would-be assassin” on social media less than four hours after the gunfire.

Noem, during her Thursday interview, responded to critics on Capitol Hill calling for her resignation by stating she is “following the law, and enforcing the laws like President Trump promised he would do.”

Video analyzed by ABC News showed agents pinning Pretti down and removing a weapon from his waist before the shooting occurred — contradicting the initial claims from officials. Three days later, Miller issued a statement acknowledging that the initial DHS account was based on “reports from CBP on the ground” and suggested protocol may not have been followed.

“Any experienced law enforcement professional will understand that initial information coming from the scene of a major incident is usually flawed, so you have to sort of take it with a grain of salt,” said John Cohen, an ABC News contributor who served as acting DHS undersecretary for intelligence and analysis under the Biden administration.

During Thursday’s appearance on Fox News, Noem said, “We will continue to follow the investigation that the FBI is leading and give them all the information that they need to bring that to conclusion and make sure the American people know the truth of the situation,” she said.

After announcing on Friday that the Justice Department opened a civil rights investigation into the shooting Pretti, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche told reporters that “a single video should not determine an entire investigation.”

“We have said repeatedly over the past week that of course this is something that we are investigating and that is what we would always do in circumstances like this,” Blanche said. 

Earlier shootings: Renee Good, Marimar Martinez
Following the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis on Jan. 7, DHS issued a statement within two hours declaring that a “violent rioter” had “weaponized her vehicle” in an “act of domestic terrorism.” According to an ABC News analysis of verified video, Good can be seen turning her steering wheel to the right — away from the ICE agent — just over one second before the first of three gunshots was fired.

In October, less than four hours after Marimar Martinez was shot five times by a Border Patrol agent in Chicago, a DHS assistant secretary posted that law enforcement was “forced” to fire defensive shots. A DHS statement that day labeled Martinez and another individual “domestic terrorists,” while Noem later characterized the incident as a “ten-car caravan” that “ambushed” and “stalked” agents.

During court hearings, an attorney representing Martinez told the court that body-worn camera footage did not align with the government’s allegations. A federal judge later dismissed the indictment against Martinez after the Department of Justice abruptly filed a motion to withdraw the case.

That same month, in an incident in California, DHS issued a statement claiming that during a vehicle stop, an “unknown individual” attempted to “run officers over by reversing directly at them without stopping.” The statement asserted that an ICE officer, “fearing for his life, fired defensive shots.”

However, a lawyer for Carlos Jimenez told ABC News that after an agent pulled out pepper spray, Jimenez began to maneuver his vehicle “to get around” and was shot in his back shoulder through the back passenger window.

Chicago shooting
In another incident in September, an ICE officer shot and killed Silverio Villegas-Gonzalez outside Chicago. According to a lawsuit filed by the state of Illinois, Villegas-Gonzalez, a 38-year-old father, was driving home from dropping his three-year-old son at day care. A DHS statement issued hours after the shooting claimed an officer “fearing for his life” was “seriously injured.”

But the Illinois complaint and body camera video obtained by ABC owned station WLS-TV revealed the agent who fired the weapon described his own injuries as “nothing major.”

“Videos of the incident did not corroborate DHS’s assertion that the shooting officer was ‘seriously injured’ by a ‘criminal illegal alien,'” the lawsuit states.

Cohen, the former DHS official, noted that describing incidents as domestic terrorism before an investigation is complete could later be viewed in court as prejudicial.

“When you make commentary on these types of incidents to advance an ideological or political narrative or objective, you run the risk of putting out inaccurate information and as a result, losing the public’s confidence,” Cohen said.

Sandweg, the former ICE official, told ABC News the only responsible approach for officials is to remain restrained in their public statements until there is reliable information.

“The only approach is … ‘We’re aware, we are conducting a full investigation,'” Sandweg said. “Public trust … is everything to these agencies. Once you destroy that, it bleeds over into everything else they do.”

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