US and Israeli strikes on Iran could rattle oil markets
A plume of smoke rises after an explosion on February 28, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — The U.S. and Israel’s large-scale strikes on Iran Saturday are expected to rattle oil markets when trading resumes Sunday evening, with analysts anticipating an immediate price reaction and impact on gas prices.
The central concern isn’t just Iran’s oil production, but its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important checkpoints for oil.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait, making Iran’s threats to close the waterway a significant risk. The U.S. is trying to control for this situation by vowing to “annihilate” Iran’s navy.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have limited infrastructure in place that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has the potential to mitigate any transit disruptions, but not offset them entirely.
While Iran has never followed through on these threats in the past, the perception of risk is still enough to move markets.
GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan expects crude oil to jump 5-10% as markets reopen, pushing oil above $70 a barrel.
While this would be much less dramatic than the response to the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, which drove prices above $100 a barrel, it would still move the average price of gas to above $3 a gallon for the first time this year.
DeHaan noted that gasoline and diesel prices in the U.S will not skyrocket overnight, and the actual impact will depend on the intensity and duration of the conflict.
The Cloudflare logo appears on a smartphone screen and as the background on a laptop computer screen in this photo illustration in Athens, Greece, on October 31, 2025. (Photo by Nikolas Kokovlis/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Web infrastructure company Cloudflare said it is experiencing problems across its network on Tuesday, curtailing access to some popular websites.
“Cloudflare is aware of, and investigating an issue which potentially impacts multiple customers,” the company said online at around 7 a.m. ET.
Minutes later, the company said it had begun to resolve the issue. “We are seeing services recover, but customers may continue to observe higher-than-normal error rates as we continue remediation efforts,” Cloudflare said.
Some popular websites, like social media platform X and artificial-intelligence chatbot ChatGPT, appeared to be down or limited on Tuesday.
Cloudflare helps companies handle user traffic, including efforts to respond to cyberattacks and load information.
A landing page on X alerted ABC News to an “internal server error,” urging users to “visit cloudflare.com for more information.” A similar warning appeared on ChatGPT’s website, telling ABC News to “please unblock challenges.cloudflare.com to proceed.”
X did not immediately respond to ABC News’ request for comment. Neither did OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
President Donald Trump attends the signing ceremony of the Peace Charter for Gaza as part of the 56th World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 22, 2026. (Harun Ozalp/Anadolu via Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Mortgage rates whipsawed in recent weeks as markets reacted to a flurry of policies from the Trump administration.
It began with a major milestone. Mortgage rates earlier this month fell below 6% for the first time in nearly three years, according to a data released by Mortgage News Daily.
“The progress stems directly from President Trump’s aggressive agenda to restore the American Dream of homeownership,” the White House touted in a statement on Jan. 12. The Trump administration cited its announcement days earlier, calling on government-sponsored mortgage lenders to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities.
Within little more than a week, however, mortgage rates had climbed to 6.21%, responding to rattled bond markets and erasing the previous reduction. The uptick came as Trump issued a tariff threat to European allies over his demands to acquire Greenland at the time. When Trump backed off of that levy soon afterward, mortgage rates fell but remained above previous lows, Mortgage News Daily data showed.
The volatility in mortgage rates underscored the risks posed by recent trade tensions, which threaten to push up Treasury yields and, in turn, drive mortgage rates higher, some analysts told ABC News.
Still, they added, mortgage rates will likely face downward pressure this year from anticipated interest-rate cuts at the Federal Reserve, and Trump may take further steps of his own to reduce borrowing costs.
“President Trump is certainly not sitting back and doing nothing,” Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, told ABC News.
“Some of it is big things on the international front, which are potentially destabilizing. And there’s an attempt to do anything and everything for the affordability of housing,” Wachter added.
To be sure, average 30-year mortgage rates have dropped from 7.08% to 6.17% since Trump took office, according to Mortgage News Daily. That drop-off owes in part to a post-pandemic cooldown of inflation, which allowed the Federal Reserve to begin lowering interst rates.
In a social media post earlier this month, Trump said lower mortgage rates would “make the cost of owning a home more affordable. It is one of my many steps in restoring Affordability.”
Mortgage rates closely track the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond. Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks higher prices that would eat away at those annual payouts. In turn, bonds often become less attractive in response to economic turmoil. When demand falls, bond yields rise.
U.S. Treasury yields jumped last week in the aftermath of Trump’s tariff threat over Greenland, which appeared to presage a possible trade war with several European allies.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 4.3% in the aftermath of Trump’s threat, before dropping steadily down to 4.21% as Trump withdrew the levy and backed negotiations over Greenland, MarketWatch data showed.
As tensions rose in response to Trump’s tariff threat, some major U.S. bondholders in Europe appeared poised to sell. A Danish pension fund, AkademikerPension, said last Tuesday it would unload U.S. treasuries by the end of the month. It remains unclear whether other European bondholders will follow suit, especially after Trump’s reversal on tariffs.
If a substantial share of U.S. bondholders were to sell off their assets, it would slash demand and push up bond yields, some analysts said.
Since 30-year mortgage rates and other key interest rates track the yield on 10-year treasury bonds, a selloff of treasuries could bring about higher monthly payments for home loans, Raymond Robertson, a professor of trade, economics and public policy at Texas A&M University, told ABC News.
“It’s a pretty big concern,” Robertson said.
Marc Norman, associate dean at the New York University School of Professional Studies and Schack Institute of Real Estate, said bondholders are evaluating the reliability of U.S. government debt.
“Basically, it’s a bet on the U.S. government,” Norman told ABC News. “If that becomes unstable and people lose trust, it could have a big effect.”
Despite the uptick in mortgage rates in recent weeks, borrowing costs for homebuyers remain markedly lower than where they stood a year ago.
Analysts attributed the drop to a series of interest rate cuts at the Fed, as well as Trump’s order calling on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy hundreds of billions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities. After the order, Bill Pulte, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, instructed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to up their bond investments in an effort to put downward pressure on mortgage rates, the Associated Press reported last week.
By ordering a federal agency to buy up some mortgage-backed securities, the Trump administration helped increased demand for the underlying loans, which pushed bond yields lower, Wachter said.
“This mortgage bond proposal is not a big move but it makes a difference,” Wachter added. Wachter said she expects mortgage rates to fall further over the course of this year, though she acknowledged ongoing risk: “Investors don’t like uncertainty.”
Still, Wachter said, “If you’re looking to buy a home, today is as good a day as any.”
If homebuyers move forward with a purchase but later find that mortgage rates have continued to fall, they can opt to refinance their homes. “The old saying is, ‘You marry the home and you date the mortgage,'” Wachter said.
Grocery Store Shopping Supermarket (Oscar Wong/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Consumer sentiment ticked higher in February for the second consecutive month as inflation fears appeared to ease, though shopper attitudes remained well below levels registered a year ago, University of Michigan data on Friday showed. The reading exceeded economists’ expectations
At its low point in November, consumer sentiment fell close to its worst level since a pandemic-era bout of acute inflation. Modest gains in recent months indicate some positive momentum for shoppers.
Year-ahead inflation expectations dropped from 4% in January to 3.5% in February, the data showed. The outcome anticipated by respondents would put inflation above its current level of 2.7%.
The labor market has slowed in recent months, while inflation has hovered above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
Despite these challenges, some major economic indicators remain upbeat.
In the fall, shoppers helped propel the fastest quarterly U.S. economic growth in two years, federal government data in December showed.
Meanwhile, a relatively small fraction of American adults are unemployed and looking for work. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% in December from 4.6% in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said, putting unemployment at a low level by historical standards.
Turmoil in markets this week, however, has prompted concern among some observers about the financial outlook.
Some major tech stocks plummeted in recent days after Anthropic unveiled an artificial intelligence tool viewed by some investors as a potential replacement for widely-used software products.
The price of bitcoin plunged more than 10% on Thursday, sinking the world’s largest cryptocurrency to its lowest level since October 2024 and erasing sizable gains made since then.
Geopolitical conflict also looms amid negotiations over Greenland, U.S.-backed leadership in Venezuela, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as persistent tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
In recent weeks, Trump has threatened tariffs against Canada, South Korea and eight European countries, invoking the tool as means of exerting pressure over a range of foreign-policy issues.
