US and Israeli strikes on Iran could rattle oil markets
A plume of smoke rises after an explosion on February 28, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — The U.S. and Israel’s large-scale strikes on Iran Saturday are expected to rattle oil markets when trading resumes Sunday evening, with analysts anticipating an immediate price reaction and impact on gas prices.
The central concern isn’t just Iran’s oil production, but its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important checkpoints for oil.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait, making Iran’s threats to close the waterway a significant risk. The U.S. is trying to control for this situation by vowing to “annihilate” Iran’s navy.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have limited infrastructure in place that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has the potential to mitigate any transit disruptions, but not offset them entirely.
While Iran has never followed through on these threats in the past, the perception of risk is still enough to move markets.
GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan expects crude oil to jump 5-10% as markets reopen, pushing oil above $70 a barrel.
While this would be much less dramatic than the response to the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, which drove prices above $100 a barrel, it would still move the average price of gas to above $3 a gallon for the first time this year.
DeHaan noted that gasoline and diesel prices in the U.S will not skyrocket overnight, and the actual impact will depend on the intensity and duration of the conflict.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average logo appears on the screen of a smartphone in Reno, United States, on December 1, 2024. (Photo by Jaque Silva/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time ever on Friday.
A surge in markets reversed a selloff that hammered tech stocks earlier in the week.
The Dow closed up 1,206 points, or 2.4%, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq increased 2.1%.
In a post on social media, President Donald Trump touted the high-water mark for the Dow, celebrating the feat as “the first time in History.”
“CONGRATULATIONS AMERICA!” Trump said.
Shares of some tech companies worldwide plummeted in recent days after Anthropic unveiled an artificial intelligence tool viewed by some investors as a potential replacement for widely-used software products.
The selloff came in response to a set of new plugins for a digital tool called Claude Cowork, an AI-fueled workplace assistant that can author documents and organize files. The plugins, released last Friday, allow customers to adapt the tool for narrow sectors like legal, finance or data marketing.
Investors appeared to shrug off the AI-related worries in a buying spree on Friday.
AI chip giant Nvidia surged nearly 8%, recovering most of its losses earlier in the week.
Enterprise-software company Workday ticked up more than 2% on Friday, after a selloff in previous days triggered by the release of Claude Cowork.
Some crypto prices also rallied on Friday, ending a days-long plunge for many digital currencies. Bitcoin and Ether — the world’s two largest cryptocurrencies — each soared about 10% on Friday.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve on December 10, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday is set to announce its latest decision on the level of interest rates, marking its first rate move since news surfaced of a federal criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The investigation ratcheted up an extraordinary clash between the nation’s top central banker and the White House, which has urged the Fed to significantly reduce interest rates.
The central bank is widely expected to defy President Donald Trump’s wishes, opting instead to hold interest rates steady. The anticipated move would end a string of three consecutive quarter-point rate cuts, aligning with a cautious approach outlined by Powell last month, before reports of the investigation into his conduct.
“We’re well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves,” Powell said at a press conference in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 10.
Futures markets expect two quarter-point interest rate cuts this year, forecasting the first in June and a second in the fall, according to CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
The federal probe appears to center on Powell’s testimony to Congress last year about cost overruns in a multi-billion-dollar office renovation project. Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017, issued a rare video message earlier this month rebuking the investigation as a politically motivated effort to influence the Fed’s interest rate policy.
The investigation follows months of strident criticism leveled at the Fed by Trump. The president denied any involvement in the criminal investigation during a brief interview with NBC News hours after the Fed posted Powell’s video.
Over the past year, hiring has slowed dramatically while inflation has remained elevated, risking an economic double-whammy known as “stagflation.” Those conditions have put the Fed in a difficult position.
The central bank must balance a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. To address pressure on both of its goals, the Fed primarily holds a single tool: interest rates.
The strain on both sides of the Fed’s mandate presents a “challenging situation” for the central bank, Powell noted last month.
“There’s no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals,” Powell said.
If the Fed raises interest rates as a means of protecting against elevated inflation, it risks a deeper slowdown of the labor market. On the other hand, by lowering rates to stimulate hiring, the Fed threatens to boost spending and worsen inflation.
The criminal investigation into Powell raised concern among some analysts and former top Fed officials, who said it poses a threat to central bank independence.
In the event a central bank loses independence, policymakers tend to favor lower interest rates as a means of boosting short-term economic activity, analysts previously told ABC News. Such a posture could pose a major risk of yearslong inflation fueled by a rise in consumer demand, untethered by interest rates.
Federal law allows the president to remove the Fed chair for “cause” — though no precedent exists for such an ouster. Powell’s term as chair is set to expire in May, but he can remain on the Fed’s policymaking board until 2028. Powell has not indicated whether he intends to remain on the board.
Job applicant with resume (Narisara Nami/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — The U.S. economy lost jobs in February, marking a major reversal of fortunes for the labor market and nearly erasing all of the job gains delivered a month earlier, government data on Friday showed. The reading came in well below economists’ expectations.
The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, according to the report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which marked a significant dropoff from 130,000 jobs added in the previous month.
The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% in January to 4.4% in February, the BLS said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.
The new jobs report arrived as markets roil and gasoline prices surge in response to the war with Iran. The Middle East conflict cast fresh uncertainty over the economic outlook.
A hiring cooldown last year prompted interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve and concern among some observers about the nation’s economic prospects. The U.S. added an average of about 15,000 jobs per month in 2025, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed.
Sluggish hiring has coincided with elevated inflation, threatening a period of “stagflation.”
Those economic headwinds helped set the conditions before the outbreak of war with Iran, which spiked oil prices and risked price increases for a host of diesel-fuel transported goods.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 785 points on Thursday as U.S. crude prices rose to their highest level since June.
Still, the overall economic picture remains mixed.
A government report in February on gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at a tepid annualized pace of 1.4% over the final three months of 2025. That reading indicated a dramatic cooldown from the strong annualized growth of 4.4% recorded in the previous quarter, U.S. Commerce Department data showed.
Price increases, meanwhile, have softened. In January, inflation fell to 2.4%, its lowest level in nine months. It remains slightly higher than the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
The Iran war threatens to slow U.S. economic growth since oil-driven price increases could weigh on consumers and businesses, analysts previously told ABC News.
The potential combination of higher inflation and slower growth could also pose a challenge for the Fed, putting pressure on both sides of its dual mandate to manage prices and maintain maximum employment.
If the Fed opts to lower borrowing costs, it could spur growth but risk higher inflation. On the other hand, the choice to raise interest rates may slow price increases but risks a cooldown of economic performance.
The central bank held interest rates steady at its most recent meeting in January, ending a string of three consecutive quarter-point rate cuts. Policymakers will make their next interest-rate decision on March 18.
