Inflation report to be released as Iran war sends gas prices surging
President Donald J. Trump disembarks Marine One at Valley International Airport in Harlingen, Texas Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021, and boards Air Force One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Md. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead. Via Flickr)
(NEW YORK) — An inflation report to be released on Wednesday will provide the latest measure of price increases as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran drives up gasoline costs and renews concerns about affordability.
The fresh data — which is set to detail prices in February — will show the cost burden borne by households weeks before the outbreak of war.
Economists expect prices to have increased 2.4% in February from a year earlier, which would leave the inflation rate unchanged from January. Inflation stands slightly higher than the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
A lackluster jobs report last week showed the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, which marked a reversal of fortunes for the labor market and erased most of the job gains recorded in 2026.
The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% in January to 4.4% in February, the BLS said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.
Sluggish hiring has coincided with elevated inflation, threatening a period of “stagflation.”
Those economic headwinds helped set the conditions before the outbreak of war with Iran, which spiked oil prices and risked price increases for a host of diesel-fuel transported goods.
U.S. crude oil prices hovered at about $86 per barrel on Tuesday, surging more than 30% since a month earlier.
The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. soared to $3.53 on Tuesday from $2.92 a month prior, AAA data showed.
Still, the overall economic picture remains mixed.
A government report in February on gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at a tepid annualized pace of 1.4% over the final three months of 2025. That reading indicated a dramatic cooldown from the strong annualized growth of 4.4% recorded in the previous quarter, U.S. Commerce Department data showed.
The Iran war threatens to slow U.S. economic growth since oil-driven price increases could weigh on consumers and businesses, analysts previously told ABC News.
The potential combination of higher inflation and slower growth could also pose a challenge for the Fed, putting pressure on both sides of its dual mandate to manage prices and maintain maximum employment.
If the Fed opts to lower borrowing costs, it could spur growth but risk higher inflation. On the other hand, the choice to raise interest rates may slow price increases but risks a cooldown of economic performance.
The central bank held interest rates steady at its most recent meeting in January, ending a string of three consecutive quarter-point rate cuts. Policymakers will make their next interest-rate decision on March 18.
The Anthropic logo displayed on the stage during the company’s Builder Summit in Bengaluru, India, on Monday, Feb. 16, 2026. (Samyukta Lakshmi/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Artificial-intelligence firm Anthropic sued the Trump administration on Monday over the Pentagon’s choice to designate it a “supply-chain risk,” legal filings show.
A spokesperson for Anthropic said the legal action “does not change our longstanding commitment to harnessing AI to protect our national security, but this is a necessary step to protect our business, our customers, and our partners.”
A Department of Defense spokesperson told ABC News: “As a matter of Department of War policy, we do not comment on litigation.”
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
(NEW YORK) — A court ruled in favor of OpenAI and its chief executive, Sam Altman, in a lawsuit brought by Elon Musk over alleged misconduct in the company’s evolution from a non-profit upstart to a for-profit corporation.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
US President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at the White House, Washington, D.C., US on February 20, 2026. Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images
(NEW YORK) — President Donald Trump rushed to enact new tariffs and vowed to preserve others after a recent Supreme Court ruling knocked out most of his levies.
Businesses and consumers now face a different set of tariffs, which amount to taxes paid by importers for goods shipped into the U.S. Oftentimes, importers pass along tariff-related costs to consumers, raising retail prices.
The nation’s overall tariff rate has dropped, meaning some products have gained relief from tariff-related price pressures, some analysts told ABC News. But levies remain in place for nearly all imported goods, including duties as high as 50%, hiking costs for some companies and shoppers, they added.
“In general, we’ve seen tariffs pushing up on prices. That won’t go away,” Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told ABC News.
The high court ruled on Friday that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPPA) does not authorize Trump to impose levies, nullifying 70% of Trump’s tariffs after they collected more than $140 billion through December, the Yale Budget Lab found.
During his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, Trump criticized the Supreme Court decision, describing at as a “very unfortunate ruling,” and asserting that he retains the ability to impose tariffs under “fully approved and tested alternative legal statutes.”
In a social media post on Monday, Trump affirmed what he said was his authority to issue tariffs, saying he does not need to consult Congress before erecting new trade levies.
Trump also reiterated his commitment to his policy approach, warning other countries that they may face a “much higher Tariff, and worse.”
A 10% global tariff took effect on Tuesday, marking the first duty enacted by Trump since the high court’s decision. Trump issued the levy under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to hike tariffs for 150 days as means of addressing “large and serious” balance-of-payments deficits, or disparities between a country’s total payments in transactions with other nations and its total earnings. In order to extend the Section 122 tariffs beyond 150 days, Trump would need to secure congressional approval.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said this week that Democrats would oppose an extension of Section 122 tariffs, which could deny Trump the 60 votes necessary to overcome a potential Senate filibuster.
Trump has vowed to hike the Section 122 tariff to 15%. As of Tuesday, however, the president had not issued an order formalizing that increase.
A 15% Section 122 tariff would result in price increases amounting to $800 in additional costs for an average U.S. household over the next 150 days, the Yale Budget Lab projected.
“That’s hundreds of dollars that you’re going to be paying as a result of these tariffs,” Raymond Robertson, professor for trade, economics and public policy at Texas A&M University, told ABC News.
Robertson noted the ultimate cost impact may be slightly lower than projected as consumers shift away from products that display noticeable tariff-induced price hikes. But, he added, tariff-impacted products will be all but impossible for shoppers to avoid.
“These tariffs are hitting across the board,” Robertson said.
The Trump administration also plans to maintain sector-specific tariffs imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and conclude pending investigations that could authorize additional levies, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement on Friday.
That statute permits the White House to levy tariffs on products of importance to national security. Under the law, the White House must await the result of an investigation undertaken by the Commerce Department before imposing a tariff.
Under Section 232, for instance, steel and aluminum face a 50% tariff, putting upward pressure on prices for tableware, motorcycles, canned goods and assorted children’s products, analysts previously told ABC News.
A 50% tariff also applies to some copper products, while 25% tariffs remain for cars and auto parts. Those levies exclude a host of goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, a free trade agreement.
To be sure, some products will experience a reduction of tariffs in the aftermath of the Supreme Court decision. Products from China, Brazil, Vietnam and India will likely gain notable tariff relief, since those nations faced significant tariffs under the legal authority that was struck down by the Supreme Court, Miller said.
Electronics and clothing are among the products that could benefit from softer tariffs.
If the Supreme Court had opted to uphold tariffs issued under IEPPA, the nation’s effective tariff rate would have remained at 16%, the Yale Budget Lab said. Taking into account Section 122 tariffs, the effective tariff rate now stands at 13.7%, the group said.
“The good news for consumers is there’s an overall decrease in tariff rates,” Miller said. “What creates a challenge is we don’t know exactly what the new landscape will look like.”
