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(NEW YORK) — The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 900 points on Thursday as the war with Iran escalated and oil prices continued to climb.
The Dow fell 908 points, or 1.8%, while S&P 500 dropped 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.9%.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
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(NEW YORK) — Inflation surged in March after an oil shock triggered by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, government data showed on Friday. The inflation report matched economists’ expectations.
Prices rose 3.3% in March compared to a year earlier, marking a steep rise from a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.4% in the prior month. Annual inflation jumped to its highest level in two years, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed.
The jump in prices owed in large part to a sharp rise in costs for products impacted by the oil shortage. Gasoline prices were 25% higher in March than February, the BLS report said. Overall, energy prices jumped almost 12% from a month earlier.
Airline fares increased 3.4% in March from February, the data showed.
The rapid acceleration of price increases could complicate interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve, which may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs as inflation climbs.
The Middle East conflict prompted Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global supply of oil and natural gas.
That energy shortage sent oil and gasoline prices surging worldwide. Gasoline prices in the U.S. stood at $4.15 on average per gallon on Friday, marking a leap of $1.17 since the start of the war, AAA data showed.
The BLS collected price data over the entire month of March. The inflation report, in turn, reflected prices for 31 of the first 32 days of war, excluding the outbreak of hostilities on Feb. 28. The ceasefire announced on Tuesday came after 40 days of fighting.
As part of a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced on Tuesday, Iran says it will allow tankers passage through the Strait of Hormuz as long as they coordinate with the nation’s military.
The resumption of tanker traffic remains uncertain, however. Tanker traffic was suspended on Wednesday after Israeli attacks on Lebanon, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported.
Crude prices fell after the ceasefire announcement but remained highly elevated. U.S. oil prices topped $98 a barrel as of Thursday, standing nearly 50% higher than their pre-war level.
A surge in consumer prices could pose difficulty for the Fed as it weathers a slowdown of economic performance over recent months.
If the Fed opts to lower borrowing costs, it could spur growth but risk higher inflation. On the other hand, the choice to raise interest rates may slow price increases but raises the likelihood of a cooldown in economic performance.
Last month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that despite rising energy prices and the potential impact on inflation, he doesn’t think the central bank needs to raise interest rates.
Powell noted that central bankers often look past shocks — such as sudden oil-price increases — since the upward pressure on consumer prices usually proves temporary.
“We feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out,” Powell said.
The benchmark interest rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Fed will announce its next rate decision on April 29. Investors overwhelmingly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
The tool pegs a roughly 70% chance that the Fed will maintain interest rates at current levels for the remainder of the year.
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(NEW YORK) — The U.S. and Israel’s large-scale strikes on Iran Saturday are expected to rattle oil markets when trading resumes Sunday evening, with analysts anticipating an immediate price reaction and impact on gas prices.
The central concern isn’t just Iran’s oil production, but its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important checkpoints for oil.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait, making Iran’s threats to close the waterway a significant risk. The U.S. is trying to control for this situation by vowing to “annihilate” Iran’s navy.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have limited infrastructure in place that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has the potential to mitigate any transit disruptions, but not offset them entirely.
While Iran has never followed through on these threats in the past, the perception of risk is still enough to move markets.
GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan expects crude oil to jump 5-10% as markets reopen, pushing oil above $70 a barrel.
While this would be much less dramatic than the response to the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, which drove prices above $100 a barrel, it would still move the average price of gas to above $3 a gallon for the first time this year.
DeHaan noted that gasoline and diesel prices in the U.S will not skyrocket overnight, and the actual impact will depend on the intensity and duration of the conflict.
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(NEW YORK) — Stocks closed significantly lower on Friday as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran showed little sign of an imminent resolution that would end one of the worst global oil shocks in decades.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 790 points, or 1.7%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 2.1%.
The session on Friday marked the end of a woeful week for the major stock indexes. The Dow declined 1% this week, while the S&P 500 fell 2%. The Nasdaq decreased 3%.
Late Thursday, President Donald Trump postponed U.S. attacks on power plants in Iran in an apparent effort to avoid escalation of the Middle East conflict.
In a post on social media on Thursday, Trump said he was “pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction” until April 6.
In the event of such an attack, Iran has said it would carry out strikes against energy infrastructure in neighboring countries, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency state media.
Wall Street appeared to find little solace in the reprieve from large-scale tit-for-tat attacks on infrastructure.
Iran continues to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil delivery. The strait facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global supply of crude oil and natural gas.
Global oil prices stood at about $113 a barrel on Friday, marking a staggering 61% rise since war with Iran began a month ago.
Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), earlier this week said the current oil crisis had surpassed the combined effect of worldwide energy shocks in the 1970s.
The global economy faces a “major, major threat,” Birol said at an event in Canberra, Australia, noting that no country would be “immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction.”
U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Thursday, suggesting concern about economic instability and inflation stemming from the Iran war.
The yield on a 10-year Treasury bond, or the amount paid to a bondholder annually, stands at about 4.45%, marking a nearly half-percentage point jump from a month earlier.
On Friday, bond yields soared close to levels reached in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs last April, when the 10-year Treasury yield peaked at around 4.5%.
Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks higher prices that would eat away at those annual payouts.
In turn, bonds often become less attractive in response to economic turmoil. When demand falls, bond yields rise.
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