Mortgage rates hit highest level since September as Iran war rattles financial markets
A ”For Sale” sign is outside a residential home in Oro Valley, Ariz., Dec.12, 2025. (Michael Yanow/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Mortgage rates have climbed to their highest level since September as fallout from the Iran war ripples through financial markets, Freddie Mac data on Thursday showed.
The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.46%, continuing a weeks-long surge since the war began on Feb. 28, during which time mortgage rates have increased nearly half a percentage point.
Mortgage rates remain slightly lower than this time a year ago, when the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stood at 6.64%.
The recent spike in borrowing costs risks further strain on U.S. households as they weather elevated gasoline prices.
The rise in mortgage rates owes to a jump in U.S. Treasury yields as investors fear a bout of inflation in response to the Middle East conflict.
High bond yields make borrowing more expensive for average Americans, since 10-year Treasury rates influence the rates offered for a variety of loans, including mortgages and credit cards.
Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks higher consumer prices that would eat away at those annual payouts. In turn, bonds often become less attractive in response to economic turmoil. When demand falls, bond yields rise.
The yield on a 10-year Treasury bond, meaning the amount paid to a bondholder annually, stands at about 4.31%, about 0.35 percentage points higher than pre-war levels.
“Mortgage rates have risen as bond market yields have sought to price in the risk of higher inflation in the future,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, previously told ABC News.
Last week, bond yields soared close to levels reached in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025, when the 10-year Treasury yield peaked at around 4.5%.
Bond yields eased in recent days as Trump signaled a possible off-ramp from the war with Iran.
Job applicant with resume (Narisara Nami/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — The U.S. economy lost jobs in February, marking a major reversal of fortunes for the labor market and nearly erasing all of the job gains delivered a month earlier, government data on Friday showed. The reading came in well below economists’ expectations.
The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, according to the report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which marked a significant dropoff from 130,000 jobs added in the previous month.
The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% in January to 4.4% in February, the BLS said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.
The new jobs report arrived as markets roil and gasoline prices surge in response to the war with Iran. The Middle East conflict cast fresh uncertainty over the economic outlook.
A hiring cooldown last year prompted interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve and concern among some observers about the nation’s economic prospects. The U.S. added an average of about 15,000 jobs per month in 2025, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed.
Sluggish hiring has coincided with elevated inflation, threatening a period of “stagflation.”
Those economic headwinds helped set the conditions before the outbreak of war with Iran, which spiked oil prices and risked price increases for a host of diesel-fuel transported goods.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 785 points on Thursday as U.S. crude prices rose to their highest level since June.
Still, the overall economic picture remains mixed.
A government report in February on gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at a tepid annualized pace of 1.4% over the final three months of 2025. That reading indicated a dramatic cooldown from the strong annualized growth of 4.4% recorded in the previous quarter, U.S. Commerce Department data showed.
Price increases, meanwhile, have softened. In January, inflation fell to 2.4%, its lowest level in nine months. It remains slightly higher than the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
The Iran war threatens to slow U.S. economic growth since oil-driven price increases could weigh on consumers and businesses, analysts previously told ABC News.
The potential combination of higher inflation and slower growth could also pose a challenge for the Fed, putting pressure on both sides of its dual mandate to manage prices and maintain maximum employment.
If the Fed opts to lower borrowing costs, it could spur growth but risk higher inflation. On the other hand, the choice to raise interest rates may slow price increases but risks a cooldown of economic performance.
The central bank held interest rates steady at its most recent meeting in January, ending a string of three consecutive quarter-point rate cuts. Policymakers will make their next interest-rate decision on March 18.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. (Li Yuanqing/Xinhua via Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — An inflation report on Tuesday is set to provide a key gauge of the nation’s economy, just days after reports of a Department of Justice probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell brought fresh scrutiny to the independence of the central bank and its capacity to manage price increases.
Economists expect year-over-year inflation to have been left unchanged at 2.7% in December. Inflation stands at its lowest level since July, but it remains nearly a percentage point higher than the Fed’s target rate of 2%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Prices for some high-profile items like coffee and beef continue to soar.
Coffee prices jumped nearly 19% year-over-year in November, the most recent month for which data is available. Beef prices climbed almost 16% over that span. Egg prices plummeted in November, however, falling 13% compared to the previous year.
The onset of elevated inflation alongside sluggish hiring in recent months had put the Fed in a difficult position, even before the DOJ opened a probe into Powell.
The central bank must balance a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. To address pressure on both of its goals, the Fed primarily holds a single tool: interest rates.
The Fed cut interest rates at three consecutive meetings late last year in an effort to boost the flagging labor market. Still, borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The criminal probe into Powell appears to center on allegations of false testimony he made about cost overruns in a renovation of the Fed’s headquarters during a congressional hearing in June.
Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017, issued a rare video message on Sunday night rebuking the investigation as a politically motivated effort to influence the Fed’s interest rate policy.
A bipartisan group of economists and former top Fed officials on Monday issued a joint statement condemning the probe as an attempt to undermine the Fed’s political independence.
The investigation follows months of strident criticism leveled at the Fed by President Donald Trump, who has urged the central bank to significantly reduce interest rates. Trump denied any involvement in the criminal investigation during a brief interview with NBC News on Sunday night.
In a statement to ABC News, a spokesperson for Attorney General Pam Bondi said, “The Attorney General has instructed her U.S. Attorneys to prioritize investigating any abuse of taxpayer dollars.”
A longstanding norm of independence usually insulates the Fed from direct political interference.
In the event a central bank lacks independence, policymakers tend to favor lower interest rates as a means of boosting short-term economic activity, analysts previously told ABC News. But, they added, that posture poses a major risk in the possibility of years-long inflation fueled by a rise in consumer demand, untethered by interest rates.
Stocks closed higher on Monday, shrugging off a dip earlier in the day after reports of the DOJ probe into Powell.
Treasury yields, however, also ticked up on Monday, suggesting possible concern about the Fed’s ability to constrain inflation.
Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks devaluing the asset and, in turn, makes bonds less attractive. When bond prices fall due to a drop in demand for Treasuries, bond yields rise.
Shoppers visit the Tajrish Bazaar, one of Tehranâs main shopping areas. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — A threat of U.S. attacks on power plants in Iran continues to loom over the Middle East conflict, even after Trump pushed back a self-imposed deadline for the second time.
In a post on social media on Thursday, Trump said he was “pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction” until April 6.
In the event of such an attack, Iran has said it would carry out tit-for-tat strikes against energy infrastructure in neighboring countries, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency state media.
The threatened escalation risks a humanitarian crisis for tens of millions of people in the region, potentially restricting their access to basic essentials such as electricity, food, water and health care, some analysts told ABC News.
Distress could spread to countries beyond the Gulf if dire conditions prompt residents to flee across borders and infrastructure damage worsens a global oil shock, analysts said.
“This will be bad for everybody,” Mushfiq Mobarak, a professor of economics at Yale University, told ABC News. “The most damaging effects — the largest welfare costs — will be on Iranian civilians.”
On March 21, Trump vowed to “obliterate” power plants in Iran within 48 hours unless the country eases its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Before the deadline arrived on Monday night in Washington, D.C., Trump posted on social media that he was postponing the ultimatum for five days, claiming “productive conversations” had been held between the U.S. and Iran.
On Thursday — one day before the new deadline was set to arrive — Trump said he would postpone the deadline for an additional 10 days.
Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are “ongoing,” Trump claimed. Iranian officials have denied that the country is in talks with the U.S.
Meanwhile, Iran has pledged to retaliate against civilian infrastructure in nearby countries in response to an attack on its energy sites.
“Immediately after the power plants and infrastructure in our country are targeted, the critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and oil facilities throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets,” Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said in a post on X on Sunday.
Natural gas supplies roughly 79% of electricity used in Iran, according to the International Energy Administration, a global energy policy group based in Paris, France.
The majority of the nation’s natural gas is supplied by South Pars, the largest natural gas field in the world. An Israeli attack on South Pars last week threatened severe impact in Iran and neighboring Gulf states, analysts previously told ABC News.
Potential U.S. attacks on energy infrastructure could cut off electricity access for many of the 92 million people in Iran, while at the same time discontinuing power for critical institutions like hospitals, Mobarak said.
“If hospitals lose power, that’s very dangerous,” Mobarak said.
The health care impact would come as some hospitals in the region face perilous conditions, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Health care facilities faced a total of 13 attacks as of March 5, the WHO said, voicing concern about “health systems and lives at risk in the region.”
Attacks on civilian infrastructure in Iran could also worsen food shortages and price increases, Michael Werz, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told ABC News. Annual food inflation in Iran stood at 72% in December, before the war began, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Any further deterioration of food access, Werz said, could have a “massive impact.”
Potential Iranian retaliation against civilian sites threatens desperate conditions for millions of people in nearby countries Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq and Israel, some analysts said.
Those countries depend in large part on water desalination plants for drinking water due to arid conditions in the region, making those facilities a major potential vulnerability, Ginger Matchett, assistant director with the GeoStrategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, said in a blog post.
Desalinated drinking water accounts for at least 90% of the supply in Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, while Israel and Oman each depend on such plants for 80% of their drinking water, Matchett said.
“If Iran successfully destroyed the Gulf’s desalination infrastructure, then the consequences could be devastating,” Matchett added.
In early March, desalination plants in Iran and Bahrain were targeted in the fighting, and missile-related damage has also been reported at sites in Kuwait and the UAE.
Potential retaliatory attacks on oil and gas sites in the region also threaten to deepen and prolong a global oil crisis, driving up fuel costs and raising prices for essential goods worldwide, some analysts said.
Global oil prices skyrocketed in recent weeks after the war prompted closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil and natural gas delivery. Consumers have held out hope for a reopening of the strait and a relatively speedy recovery, but facility repairs could stretch on for months and choke off fuel supply in the meantime.
Qatari authorities said last week that Iranian ballistic missile attacks caused fires and “extensive damage” at the Ras Laffan terminal, which carries about one-fifth of the global supply of liquid natural gas. An Iranian missile attack struck oil refineries last week in Haifa, Israel, where fire brigades extinguished a fire that broke out at the site, Israel Fire and Rescue said.
The Philippines has declared a national energy emergency in response to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, while South Korea has called on residents to ride bicycles for short trips and reduce the length of showers. Thailand and Vietnam have also asked citizens to take steps to curtail energy use.
Roughly 80% of the oil that typically passes through the strait is bound for Asian markets, according to the IEA. Still, the oil shock will raise gas prices worldwide, since energy is sold on a global market, Mobarak said.
“This will have effects for gas consumers across the world,” he added.
