Mortgage rates hit highest level since September as Iran war rattles financial markets
A ”For Sale” sign is outside a residential home in Oro Valley, Ariz., Dec.12, 2025. (Michael Yanow/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Mortgage rates have climbed to their highest level since September as fallout from the Iran war ripples through financial markets, Freddie Mac data on Thursday showed.
The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.46%, continuing a weeks-long surge since the war began on Feb. 28, during which time mortgage rates have increased nearly half a percentage point.
Mortgage rates remain slightly lower than this time a year ago, when the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stood at 6.64%.
The recent spike in borrowing costs risks further strain on U.S. households as they weather elevated gasoline prices.
The rise in mortgage rates owes to a jump in U.S. Treasury yields as investors fear a bout of inflation in response to the Middle East conflict.
High bond yields make borrowing more expensive for average Americans, since 10-year Treasury rates influence the rates offered for a variety of loans, including mortgages and credit cards.
Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks higher consumer prices that would eat away at those annual payouts. In turn, bonds often become less attractive in response to economic turmoil. When demand falls, bond yields rise.
The yield on a 10-year Treasury bond, meaning the amount paid to a bondholder annually, stands at about 4.31%, about 0.35 percentage points higher than pre-war levels.
“Mortgage rates have risen as bond market yields have sought to price in the risk of higher inflation in the future,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, previously told ABC News.
Last week, bond yields soared close to levels reached in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025, when the 10-year Treasury yield peaked at around 4.5%.
Bond yields eased in recent days as Trump signaled a possible off-ramp from the war with Iran.
(NEW YORK) — The U.S. recorded strong job gains in March, rebounding from dismal losses a month earlier, even as the nation weathered a global oil shock set off by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, a jobs report on Friday showed. The reading far exceeded economists’ expectations.
The U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, according to the report, which marked a sharp increase from 133,000 jobs lost in the previous month.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% in March from 4.4% in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.
As in previous months, the health care sector stood out as a top source of hiring in March, adding 76,000 jobs, the BLS said. The construction sector, as well as transportation and logistics, also contributed to the surge in hiring.
Employment in the federal government continued to decline in March, shedding 18,000 jobs, the BLS said. The federal government has lost 355,000 jobs, or nearly 12% of its workforce, since October 2024, a month before President Donald Trump took office.
The government data arrived as the war continues to drive up gasoline prices and borrowing costs, threatening a drag on the economy.
The U.S. added an average of about 15,000 jobs per month in 2025, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed. That performance amounted to a sharp slowdown from 186,000 jobs added each month in 2024.
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which began on Feb. 28, triggered one of the worst global oil shocks in decades, prompting gloomy forecasts on Wall Street of a potential U.S. recession over the coming months.
In theory, a prolonged oil shortage could drive up prices for a vast array of goods, sapping energy from consumer spending, which powers most of the nation’s economic growth.
Iran has mounted an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global oil supply.
The U.S. is a net exporter of petroleum, meaning the country produces more oil than it consumes. But since oil prices are set on a global market, U.S. prices move in response to swings in worldwide supply and demand.
The disruption in oil shipping has pushed U.S. crude prices above $110 a barrel, which marks a staggering rise of more than 50% since the war began on Feb. 28.
Gasoline prices in the U.S. ticked up to $4.08 on average per gallon as of Wednesday, marking a leap of $1.09 over the past month, AAA data showed.
A potential jump in costs for additional goods delivered through the Strait of Hormuz — such as fertilizer and diesel fuel — could also raise prices beyond gasoline, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in an effort to quell possible inflation.
The benchmark interest rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
If the Fed moved to raise interest rates, it would hike borrowing costs for many consumer and business loans, risking a slowdown in hiring.
Speaking at Harvard University on Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could take a patient approach as it monitors potential price effects from the Middle East conflict.
“We feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out,” Powell said.
Workers at Spirit Airlines wait for passengers to arrive for their flights at O’Hare Airport on March 10, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
(WASHINGTON) — President Donald Trump said an announcement was expected Friday on Spirit Airlines, amid a report that the airline was preparing to cease operations after a $500 million rescue deal fell apart.
The Wall Street Journal first reported that the airline is preparing to shut down operations.
When asked if the administration had decided against bailing out Spirit Airlines, Trump told reporters on Friday, “I guess we’re looking at it. If we could do it, we do it, but only if it’s a good deal.”
“No institution’s been able to do it,” he continued. “I said ‘I’d like to save the jobs,’ but we’ll have an announcement sometime today. We gave them, we gave them a final proposal.”
ABC News has reached out to the White House for additional comment.
A spokesperson for Spirit Airlines declined to comment on ongoing discussions as it related to the WSJ report.
“Spirit is operating as usual,” the spokesperson said in a statement.
The Florida-based carrier is currently operating with over 40 flights in the air, according to FlightRadar24 data.
Other airlines have responded to the news saying they will be ready to help stranded passengers in the event that Spirit shuts down.
American Airlines told ABC News it will offer fare caps on main cabin tickets for routes they share with Spirit.
Similarly, United Airlines said they’re “preparing to support Spirit customers in the event of a shut down.”
“We are ready to support customers who may be impacted if Spirit Airlines ceases operations, with a focus on helping people continue their travel plans with low-fare options,” Frontier Airlines posted Friday on X.
ABC News previously reported that Spirit could run out of the cash it needs to keep operating within days, not weeks, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Spirit filed for bankruptcy for the second time last August — having previously filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in November 2024 — to restructure financially and “reduce its cost structure,” with hopes of emerging from Chapter 11 by the spring or summer of 2026.
The soaring price of jet fuel amid the ongoing war in Iran has had widespread impact on airlines and travel expert Katy Nastro, of airfare monitoring site Going, previously told ABC News that Spirit could be out of time to try and turn things around.
“It’s never a good sign to file bankruptcy to begin with, but a second within six months, even worse,” Nastro said. “Spirit suggested that they were going to be able to come out of bankruptcy this time by the spring. We’re in the spring now, we have higher jet fuel prices — this is a recipe for disaster for them.”
What travelers need to know about Spirit Airlines shutting down
Bradley Akubuiro, a crisis expert and former Boeing spokesperson, told ABC News that losing a budget airline like Spirit will raise the floor on airfares.
“Frontier, Allegiant, and Breeze are still flying, but Spirit was the biggest, and in the markets it dominated — Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, a lot of the Caribbean — there isn’t another carrier ready to backfill at the same price tomorrow,” he explained. “The pain isn’t immediate. It’s structural. A fare that used to be $89 is $140 six months from now, and most consumers won’t connect the two.”
When airlines liquidate, they immediately cease operations without notice, which means that passengers will be stranded and employees will not show up to work.
There is generally no airline assistance when it comes to helping stranded passengers after an airline shuts down operations.
For any ticketed passengers scheduled to fly Spirit or already in the middle of their trip, below are some tips from travel experts on how to navigate the situation.
Don’t immediately cancel your flight, Nastro advised, adding that travelers who cancel forfeit their right to a refund. And make sure to keep all records and receipts.
If you booked with a credit card, you can dispute the charge with your credit card company and likely get the money back.
There is less protection if you booked with a debit card, but you can still contact your company to see if you can get reimbursed.
If you have travel insurance, she reminded customers to read the fine print as not all of them cover this type of scenario.
Per the Department of Transportation, customers could consider filing a proof of claim in the bankruptcy proceeding to try and get a partial refund, but the claim will be considered along with all the other creditors that the airline owes money to and you may only get a small portion of your money back.
If you’re stranded, check options with other airlines that might be able to offer relief flights, fare caps or emergency fares, like they would do after a big weather event.
This is a developing story, check back for updates.
The Ateela 2 Oil Tanker boat navigates the sea on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. (Photo by Asghar Besharati/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — An inflation report on Tuesday will provide a fresh gauge of prices as the Iran war ratchets up costs for gasoline, airfares and other expenses.
Economists expect consumer prices to have risen 3.8% in April, when a surge in gasoline costs took hold weeks into the war, which would mark a significant acceleration from 3.3% in the previous month.
As recently as February, inflation stood at 2.4%, clocking in just a tick above the Federal Reserve’s target level of 2%.
The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff prompted one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded.
The U.S. is a net exporter of petroleum, meaning the country produces more oil than it consumes. But since oil prices are set on a global market, U.S. prices move in response to swings in worldwide supply and demand.
Crude oil is the main ingredient in auto fuel, accounting for more than half of the price paid at the pump, according to the federal U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The price of an average gallon of gas stood at $4.52 as of Monday, AAA data showed – an increase of $1.54 per gallon since the war began on Feb. 28. That amounts to a nearly 52% price jump in about two-and-a-half months.
The surge in fuel prices sent costs surging for gas-dependent transportation, such as airline tickets. In March, airfare costs jumped more than 3% from a month earlier.
Within weeks, the jump in prices could spread to groceries, furniture and just about any other item delivered by diesel-fueled trucks and tankers, some analysts previously told ABC News.
The recent rise in prices has left many consumers feeling glum. In May, consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level ever recorded, according to a monthly survey conducted by the University of Michigan since 1978.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, could weaken if shoppers remain pessimistic. In theory, a slowdown of spending could slow the economy.
By some measures, however, the U.S. economy has proven resilient amid the war.
Hiring slowed in April but remained solid, exceeding economists’ expectations, federal government data last week showed. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in April, a low level by historic standards. Additionally, the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter of 2026, marking an acceleration from 0.5% growth recorded in the previous quarter.
However, a persistent increase in consumer prices may put pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates as a means of dialing back inflation.
The Fed has opted to hold interest rates steady at three consecutive meetings since the outset of 2026. Before that, the Fed cut interest rates a quarter-point three straight times.
If the Fed moved to raise interest rates, it would hike borrowing costs for many consumer and business loans, risking an economic slowdown.
Markets forecast a roughly 70% chance of interest rates holding steady for the remainder of this year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
