Stocks tumble and oil prices rise as US-Iran ceasefire uncertain before deadline
Stock Market Wall Street (Matteo Colombo/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Stocks dipped and oil prices rose in early trading on Monday as tensions mounted in the Strait of Hormuz, putting pressure on the ceasefire between the U.S and Iran a day before it’s set to expire.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 25 points, or 0.07%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.1%.
U.S. Marines seized an Iran-flagged container ship in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday, according to CENTOM, just a day after two Indian ships came under fire in the Strait of Hormuz.
A potential second round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran remained in doubt on Monday. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday that Iran has not yet made any decision regarding additional talks.
West Texas Intermediate futures, the benchmark index for U.S. oil prices, climbed more than 4% on Monday, registering at about $87 a barrel.
The escalating tensions appeared to reverse a brief thaw on Friday, when a senior Iranian official declared the strait “completely open” for tanker traffic. Within minutes, President Donald Trump celebrated the announcement as a major breakthrough.
The glimmer of relief for the critical waterway sent stock prices soaring and oil prices plummeting on Friday.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
(NEW YORK) — The U.S. economy slowed more than expected over the final months of 2025, federal government data on Friday showed.
The economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter in the government’s initial estimate, marking a cooldown from blistering-hot 4.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter.
The slowdown at the end of last year stemmed in part from a decline in the pace of consumer spending, the U.S. Commerce Department said.
The GDP report marks the latest distress signal for U.S. shoppers, who account for about two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity.
Retail sales data last week showed flat performance in December, suggesting possible weakness for shoppers during the holiday season. Meanwhile, credit card debt levels have climbed and consumer sentiment has remained glum.
The fresh reading of gross domestic product on Friday provided a key measure of the country’s economic health as policymakers continued to grapple with an ongoing bout of elevated inflation and sluggish hiring.
Inflation cooled in January, dropping price increases to their lowest level in nine months. While the pullback defied fears of a tariff-induced rise in overall costs, inflation continued to hover above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
Meanwhile, a recent jobs report showed stronger-than-expected hiring in January, even though an updated estimate released at the same time indicated a near-paralysis of the labor market last year.
A boost in consumer spending helped propel the surge in GDP over three months ending in September, the U.S. Commerce Department previously said.
Over the past year, hiring has slowed dramatically while inflation has remained elevated, risking an economic double-whammy known as “stagflation.” Those conditions have put the Federal Reserve in a difficult position.
The central bank must balance a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. To address pressure on both of its goals, the Fed primarily holds a single tool: interest rates.
The strain on both sides of the Fed’s mandate presents a “challenging situation” for the central bank, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in December.
The Fed held interest rates steady at its most recent meeting in January, ending a string of three consecutive quarter-point rate cuts.
Futures markets expect two quarter-point interest rate cuts this year, forecasting the first in June and a second in the fall, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
(NEW YORK) — A thaw in the housing market may deliver relief for homebuyers left out in the cold over recent years, analysts told ABC News.
After the pandemic, a rapid rise in home prices coincided with stubbornly high mortgage rates, shutting out potential buyers.
Glimmers of hope have started to emerge, however. Mortgage rates are falling, wages are rising faster than home prices and homebuyers are scooping up their biggest discounts in years, some analysts told ABC News.
“Housing is becoming more affordable. Are we there yet? No. But we’re on the right path,” Ken Johnson, a real estate economist at the University of Mississippi, told ABC News.
The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.09%, Freddie Mac data last week showed. A little more than a year ago, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate exceeded 7%.
Each percentage point decrease in a mortgage rate can save thousands or tens of thousands in additional costs each year, depending on the price of the house, according to Rocket Mortgage.
“It looks like mortgage rates are settling down,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), told ABC News. “That’s great news for homebuyers.”
A measure of housing affordability issued by NAR has improved for seven consecutive months, rising to its highest level since 2022, Yun said. The surge in home prices has slowed while income gains have accelerated, bolstering the purchasing power of homebuyers, some analysts noted.
“Incomes are growing faster than home prices,” Johnson said.
Despite these positive signals, the housing market still faces significant challenges, some analysts said, pointing to a fundamental shortage of housing supply.
The housing market is suffering from a phenomenon known as the “lock-in” effect, Lu Liu, a professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, told ABC News.
While mortgage rates have fallen, they remain well above the rates enjoyed by most current homeowners, who may be reluctant to put their homes on the market and risk a much higher rate on their next mortgage.
“The degree of lock-in is unprecedented in the U.S.,” Liu said, noting the prevalence of 30-year mortgages and the inability for homeowners to transfer a current loan to a new property.
Existing home sales declined by 8.4% in January from the previous month, the NAR said in a report last week.
Alongside the lock-in effect, construction has failed to make up for a years-long shortage of new homes, exacerbating the shortfall.
While the lock-in effect remains a significant factor, its impact may be waning as some home owners encounter major life events or other circumstances that force them to move, even if it entails taking on a loan with a higher mortgage rate, Liu said.
“If they really do have to move, maybe they would be more willing to yield to this economic logic,” Liu added.
If homebuyers do move forward with a purchase, they may benefit from major price discounts, Redfin found this month. In 2025, homebuyers received average discounts that amount to 7.9% off a home’s initial listing price, Redfin said, making it the largest average discount in 13 years.
“Homebuyers are more likely to get discounts than they were in recent years because it’s the strongest buyer’s market in recent history,” said Lily Katz and Asad Khan, co-authors of the Redfin report.
Positive signals for homebuyers will likely continue as elevated mortgage rates weigh on consumer demand, slowing the rise in prices, some analysts said. But, they cautioned, an unexpected spike in mortgage rates could hike borrowing costs for homebuyers or an economic slowdown may crimp purchasing power.
“There is uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates,” Liu said. “So the overall price outlook is uncertain.”
Photo of Wall Street (Matteo Colombo/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 1,000 points in early trading on Tuesday as the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran prompted a major selloff.
The Dow fell 1,075 points, or 2.2%, while the S&P 500 dropped 2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq plummeted 2%.
Investor reaction on Tuesday sharply departed from the muted response a day earlier, when the major indexes closed essentially flat.
Oil prices, meanwhile, spiked for the second consecutive day as traders feared a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply.
The national average price of gasoline in the U.S. soared about 11 cents overnight to $3.11, AAA said on Tuesday.
President Donald Trump announced “major combat operations” against Iran on Saturday, with daytime strikes in the joint U.S.-Israel attack targeting military and government sites, officials said.
On Sunday, Iranian state television confirmed that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was among those killed by airstrikes in Tehran.
Iran is responding to the U.S.-Israeli operation with missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, regional U.S. bases and Gulf nations. American diplomatic facilities have also been attacked.
U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher on Tuesday, suggesting possible concern about economic instability and inflation stemming from the Iran War.
Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks higher prices that would eat away at those annual payouts.
In turn, bonds often become less attractive in response to economic turmoil. When demand falls, bond yields rise.
ABC News’ Jon Haworth, Jack Moore, Nadine El-Bawab, David Brennan, Kevin Shalvey, Meredith Deliso and Leah Sarnoff contributed to this report.
