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(NEW YORK) — Tens of thousands of U.S. dockworkers are set to walk off the job early Tuesday morning, clogging dozens of ports along the East and Gulf coasts and potentially raising consumer prices ahead of the holiday season.

“Moments ago, the first large-scale eastern dockworker strike in 47 years began at ports from Maine to Texas, including at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey,” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said in a statement Tuesday.

“In preparation for this moment, New York has been working around the clock to ensure that our grocery stores and medical facilities have the essential products they need,” Hochul added.

In a statement to ABC News early Tuesday, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) confirmed the union’s first coastwide strike in nearly 50 years was underway. The statement said that “tens of thousands of ILA rank-and-file members” started to set up picket lines at shipping ports up and down the Atlantic and Gulf coasts as of 12:01 am.

“We are prepared to fight as long as necessary, to stay out on strike for whatever period of time it takes, to get the wages and protections against automation our ILA members deserve,” ILA President Harold Daggett said.

The ports account for more than half of the nation’s container imports, facilitating the transport of everything from toys to fresh fruit to nuclear reactors, JPMorgan senior equity analyst Brian Ossenbeck said in a report shared with ABC News.

A prolonged work stoppage of several weeks or months could rekindle inflation for some goods and trigger layoffs at manufacturers as raw materials dry up, experts said.

“A strike would be very, very disruptive,” said Jason Miller, a professor of supply-chain management at Michigan State University who closely tracks imports, told ABC News.

“You can’t take all this freight and either send it to other ports or put it on airplanes,” Miller added. “There is no plan B.”

The ILA, the union representing East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers, is seeking higher wages and a ban on the use of some automated equipment.

“ILA longshore workers deserve to be compensated for the important work they do keeping American commerce moving and growing,” the ILA told ABC News in a statement on Monday. “Meanwhile, ILA dedicated longshore workers continue to be crippled by inflation due to USMX’s unfair wage packages.”

The U.S. Maritime Alliance, or USMX, an organization bargaining on behalf of the dockworkers’ employers, declined to respond to an ABC News request for comment.

President Joe Biden retains the power to prevent or halt a strike under the 1947 Taft-Hartley Act. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce sent a letter to Biden on Monday urging the White House to intervene, which it has previously said it will not do. The White House told ABC News in a statement that it has been in contact with both the union and management in recent days.

“This weekend, senior officials have been in touch with USMX representatives urging them to come to a fair agreement fairly and quickly – one that reflects the success of the companies. Senior officials have also been in touch with the ILA to deliver the same message,” White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson said.

A prolonged East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike could moderately increase prices for a range of goods, experts told ABC News. That upward pressure on prices would result from a shortage of products caught up in the supply chain blockage, leaving too many dollars chasing after too few items, they added.

Food products are especially vulnerable to an uptick in prices, since food could spoil if suppliers sent the products ahead of time to minimize the strike impact, as they have done for some other goods, Adam Kamins, a senior director of economic research at Moody’s Analytics, told ABC News.

Additionally, a significant share of the nation’s imported auto parts pass through the ports impacted by a potential strike, which could cause an increase in vehicle prices if the strike persists.

Price increases have slowed dramatically from a peak in 2022, but inflation remains higher than the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. A strike could prevent further progress, according to Kamins.

“We’re not talking about prices skyrocketing by any means, but I think it halts the momentum we’ve had over the last year or so getting inflation back in the bottle,” he said.

In 2002, a strike among workers at West Coast ports lasted 11 days before then-President George W. Bush invoked the Taft-Hartley Act and ended the standoff. However, the last time East Coast and Gulf Coast workers went on strike, in 1977, the work stoppage lasted seven weeks.

Tuesday’s potential work stoppage follows high-profile strikes undertaken last year by auto workers as well as Hollywood writers and actors. Most recently, 33,000 Boeing workers walked off the job in early September, demanding better pay and retirement benefits.

“Trade unions all over the country have been going out on strike,” Sriram Narayanan, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told ABC News. “We’re seeing that happen now at the ports.”

Ahead of the historic strike, the president of the Teamsters labor union, Sean O’Brien, released a letter of solidarity to the International Longshoreman’s Association, saying, “The International Brotherhood of Teamsters, including our members in the freight industry, stand in full solidarity with the International Longshoremen’s Association as they fight for a fair and just contract with the ocean carriers represented by USMX.”

“Don’t forget –Teamsters do not cross picket lines. The Teamsters Union is 100 percent committed to standing with our Longshoremen brothers and sisters until they win the contract they deserve,” O’Brien said.

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(WASHINGTON) — U.S. hiring slowed in October, but fallout from hurricanes and labor strikes likely caused an undercount of the nation’s workers.

A fresh jobs report marked the final piece of major economic data before Election Day. However, the data offers little more than a blurry snapshot of the U.S. economy due to the one-off disruptions last month.

Employers added 12,000 workers last month, falling short of economist expectations of 90,000 additional jobs, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Friday showed. The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, which matches the previous month’s level and remains historically low.

The hiring in October amounted to a sharp slowdown from 254,000 jobs added in September, though it should be interpreted with a significant dose of caution, experts told ABC News prior to the data release.

“Workers who weren’t paid during the survey period due to work disruptions won’t be counted as employed, and workers and businesses may be too busy dealing with the aftermath of the storms to respond to surveys,” Martha Gimbel, executive director of the Budget Lab at Yale University and former director of economic research at Indeed, told ABC News in a statement.

Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida as a Category 3 hurricane on Oct. 9. It ultimately left millions without power and much of the state’s gas stations without fuel. In late September, Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida, prompting recovery efforts that have continued for weeks afterward.

Additionally, roughly 33,000 Boeing workers walked off the job in mid-September, an action that’s expected to manifest as missing jobs for the first time on the October report.

In all, the combination of hurricanes and work stoppages is estimated to have pushed the level of hiring 50,000 jobs lower than where it otherwise would have stood, Bank of America Global Research said in a note to clients this week.

“This probably weighed on payrolls across the board, especially leisure and hospitality,” Bank of America Global Research said, pointing to Hurricane Milton. “There was also likely a minor drag from Helene,” the bank added.

Despite an overall slowdown this year, the job market has proven resilient. Hiring has continued at a solid pace; meanwhile, the unemployment rate has climbed but remains near a 50-year low.

The latest hiring data arrived at the end of a week in which new releases showed an economy growing at a robust pace while inflation returns to normal levels.

U.S. GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate over three months ending in September, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data on Wednesday showed. That figure fell slightly below economists’ expectations, but demonstrated brisk growth that was propelled by resilient consumer spending.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed that prices rose 2.1% over the year ending in September. Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, though it remains slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.

The jobs report is set to arrive four days before Election Day. It also marks the last piece of significant economic data before the Fed announces its next interest rate decision on Nov. 7.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.

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(NEW YORK) — An escalation of conflicts in the Middle East in recent weeks has triggered a sharp increase in oil prices, raising uncertainty about where costs will head in the final weeks before Election Day.

Oil prices surged about 13% over an 11-day stretch ending on Monday. Prices fell markedly on Tuesday, however, as nearly a week passed without the onset of a widely anticipated Israeli counterattack on Iran.

The rise of oil prices carries potential implications for the presidential election next month. A hike in the cost of crude oil typically raises the price of gasoline, which holds substantial sway over general consumer attitudes, experts told ABC News.

For now, the recent increase in oil prices is not large enough to impact the election, experts said. However, they added, a further spike over the coming weeks could sour consumer sentiment and weaken approval of Vice President Kamala Harris, since her party occupies the White House.

“People use gasoline as a gauge of the economy and how they’re feeling about it,” Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, told ABC News.

“A small change in prices probably won’t move the needle. If the price of a gallon goes up 50 cents, then that gets people’s attention,” Cinquegrana added, noting that such an increase is possible, but unlikely.

At least one expert cast doubt over the impact of even a sharp hike in oil and gas prices, saying it is unclear whether voters would fault Harris for the price spike and, even if they did, whether the few weeks remaining in the campaign affords enough time for higher prices to register with voters.

“People look at the economy over the long term, not the last month,” Jon Krosnick, a professor of political science at Stanford University who studies the relationship between gas prices and political perceptions, told ABC News.

In the aftermath of the Iranian attack on Israel last week, petroleum analysts told ABC News that the resulting spike in oil prices could push up gasoline prices between 10 and 15 cents per gallon. An increase of that magnitude would not affect the election, experts said, since the moderate uptick would do little to irk consumers and diminish their opinion about the nation’s economy.

“I do suspect that prices are going to continue to move higher, but I don’t think it will be significantly higher,” Cinquegrana said. “Unless something really goes haywire, I don’t expect prices to spike ahead of the election.”

A slight increase in gas prices may not matter much to consumers because costs at the pump have eased significantly over the past year, experts said.

Fuel prices have plummeted in recent months due to sluggish demand for gas as the busy summer traveling season has given way to an autumn slowdown. The average price of a gallon of gas is about 15% lower than where it stood a year ago, AAA data shows.

Despite its recent uptick, the price of oil has also fallen from a 2022 peak reached when the blazing-hot economic rebound from the pandemic collided with a supply shortage imposed by the Russia-Ukraine war.

A major escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, however, could send oil and gas prices much higher, analysts said, pointing to potentially dire consequences of an anticipated retaliatory strike by Israel against Iran.

While sanctions have constrained Iranian oil output in recent years, the nation asserts control over the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a trading route that facilitates the transport of about 15% of global oil supply.

Intensification of the war could limit Iranian oil production or transport through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting global supply and sending prices upward, some experts said.

“The risk of a wider war in the Middle East has gone up,” Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of research for oil markets, energy and mobility at S&P Global, told ABC News. “There’s the risk of something happening that could lead to higher prices.”

A further surge in oil prices would send gas prices skyrocketing, which could damage Harris’ political fortunes if voters fault the Biden administration for the sudden increase in costs right before they cast their ballots, Carola Binder, an economics professor at the University of Texas at Austin who studies the relationship between gas prices and consumer attitudes, told ABC News.

“If there was a huge increase in gas prices, I could imagine that hurting Harris’ chances,” Binder said. “Consumer sentiment does affect elections.”

Such a forecast drew sharp disagreement from Krosnick, even though his research helped establish an understanding of the political implications of rising gas prices.

Krosnick co-authored a 2016 study in the academic journal Political Psychology that examined the relationship between gas prices and presidential approval rating between the mid-1970s and mid-2000s. The study found that elevated gas prices drove a president’s approval downward. To be exact, each 10-cent increase in the gas price was associated with more than half a percentage point decline in presidential approval, the research showed.

The findings do not shed light on a scenario in which gas prices spike ahead of next month’s election, Krosnick said, noting that his research examined shifts in public opinion over a much longer period of time. Plus, he added, voters may not fault Harris for the Middle East conflict that would drive the potential price increase.

“There isn’t enough time for there to be a sustained change in prices,” Krosnick said. “It takes a while to ripple out to consumers.”

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