US poised to end 2025 with the largest one-year drop in homicides ever recorded: Experts
(NEW YORK) — This year began with a deadly New Year’s Day car-ramming terrorist attack in New Orleans and is finishing with a flurry of horrific shootings, including a mass shooting at Brown University, but 2025 is also poised to end with the largest one-year drop in U.S. homicides ever recorded, according to data from cities both large and small.
Based on a sampling of preliminary crime statistics from 550 U.S. law enforcement agencies, the year is expected to end with a roughly 20% decrease in homicides nationwide, Jeff Asher, a national crime analyst, told ABC News.
“So, even taking a conservative view, let’s say its 17% or 16%, you’re still looking at the largest one-year drop ever recorded in 2025,” said Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics and a former crime analyst for the CIA and the New Orleans Police Department.
Experts say crime levels appear “back to normal” after a pandemic surge.
The dramatic drop in homicides surpasses a 15% decline in 2024, which was then the largest decrease on record, according to Asher. In 2023, the number of homicides across the country fell 13% and 6% in 2022, according to the FBI.
The number of homicides nationwide is expected to be the lowest since the FBI began keeping such records in 1960, Asher said.
Asher said his assessment is based on the Real-Time Crime Index, which he founded and is a collection of monthly crime data from 550 law enforcement agencies nationwide.
The FBI’s official annual report on crime isn’t expected to be released until the second quarter of 2026, leaving Asher and other experts to rely on preliminary data from a sampling of law enforcement agencies.
Preliminary data the FBI made public earlier this year showed that homicides across the country fell 18% between September 2024 and August 2025. The FBI data also showed an overall 9% decline in violent crime during the same time period and a 12% reduction in property crime.
“You’ve got places like Detroit, Philadelphia and Baltimore that are on track to have the fewest murders since the 1960s. New Orleans, in spite of the terrorist attack on January 1, is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1970,” Asher said. “San Francisco is on track to see the fewest number of murders since 1940.”
Homicides in Chicago are down 30% this year from 2024, according to crime statistics from the Chicago Police Department (CPD). The number of homicides this year is down 49% since 2021, when the city recorded nearly 800 homicides, the CPD data shows.
And it’s not just homicides that are plummeting to record lows in 2025, according to Asher.
“We’re seeing across-the-board drops in every type of reported crime, which happened in 2024 and we’re seeing again in 2025,” said Asher, adding that aggravated assaults across the country are down 8% this year and motor vehicle theft has fallen 23%.
My son was innocent
Despite the plunge in violent crime this year, the perception for some is that crime was rampant at certain points in a number of major cities.
The falling homicide numbers offered little solace to Tamara Tarpinian-Jachym, whose 21-year-old son, Eric Tarpinian-Jachym, was killed on June 30 when he was caught in the crossfire of a shooting in Washington, D.C., less than a mile from the White House.
“You can skew data any way you want,” Tarpinian-Jachym of Massachusetts told ABC News. “I believe that there’s more crime, violent crime, especially in our major cities.”
Three teenagers, including two brothers, were arrested on murder charges and are being prosecuted as adults in federal court in the death of Tarpinian-Jachym’s son, a University of Massachusetts student who, at the time he was killed, was a Congressional intern for Rep. Ron Estes, R-Kan. One of the suspects charged in his death was also charged in a separate homicide of a 17-year-old girl in Washington, D.C.
All three defendants charged in Tarpinian-Jachym’s homicide have pleaded not guilty.
“My son was innocent. Others were innocent victims of this crime. If more people died, it would have been a mass shooting. But my son was the only one who died,” Tarpinian-Jachym said.
Citing her own experience, Tarpinian-Jachym said blanket homicide statistics don’t take into account the suffering of family members like her left to grieve.
“It tears the family apart. You never have inner peace,” Tarpinian-Jachym said. “My heart goes out to all murder victims this year.”
Tarpinian-Jachym told ABC News that she agreed with President Donald Trump’s decision in August to deploy National Guard troops to Washington, D.C., and several other large cities to help combat crime. The decision followed a May 21 shooting at the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C., that killed two staff members of the Israeli Embassy and came even as crime was already down, according to the Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia (MPD) preliminary crime data posted online.
Homicides in Washington, D.C., as of Dec. 30, are down 31% compared to 2024, according to the MPD’s online data.
However, a lawsuit filed against the District of Columbia in 2020 by a former MPD sergeant-turned-whistleblower claimed the MPD routinely “misclassified crimes and that districts compete against each other to get the largest reduction in the crime statistics.” The lawsuit was settled out of court this past August. According to court documents, the District of Columbia agreed to dismiss the case “without any admission of any liability.”
On Dec. 14, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform released an interim staff report alleging that its investigation found MPD Chief Pamela A. Smith, who announced this month that she is stepping down, “pressured and at times directed commanders to manipulate crime data in order to maintain the appearance of low crime in the nation’s capital.”
In a Dec. 15 interview with NBC Washington, D.C., station WRC-TV, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser responded, saying, “I don’t see any evidence of that.”
Mass shootings drop in 2025
According to the Gun Violence Archive, a website that tracks shootings across the country, this year is poised to end with mass shootings down 22% from the 503 committed in 2024. The website defines a mass shooting as at least four victims shot, either injured or killed, not including the shooter.
Among the nearly 400 mass shootings across the country this year, two of the most devastating occurred at churches.
On Aug. 27, two children, ages 8 and 10, were killed and 21 people were injured at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis when a 23-year-old shooter opened fire through the windows of the school’s church during a service, police said. The suspect, Robin Westman, whose mother once worked at the church, died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound, authorities said.
On Sept. 28, four people were killed and eight others were injured in a mass shooting at a Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints chapel in Grand Blanc, Mich., according to the FBI. The suspect, 40-year-old Thomas Sanford of Burton, Mich., allegedly set fire to the chapel after crashing his truck into the building, authorities said.
Sanford, who served as a Marine sergeant and was deployed in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2007, was killed in a shootout with police.
And on Dec. 13, a gunman opened fire in a lecture hall at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, killing two students and injuring nine others. Following a weeklong search, the suspect, Claudio Manuel Neves Valente, a 48-year-old former Brown graduate student, was found dead at a New Hampshire storage facility from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound, authorities said.
Neves Valente is also suspected of killing MIT professor Nuno F.G. Laureiro two days after the Brown University shooting, according to federal prosecutors.
‘I’m seeing now that we’re back to normal.’
Despite the string of high-profile killings and attacks this year, Robert Boyce, a retired chief of detectives for the New York Police Department, said the dramatic drop in 2025 homicides is real.
Boyce said that when he retired from the NYPD in 2018, the city had fewer than 300 homicides that year.
But when the COVID pandemic hit in 2020, homicides across the country soared 30%, according to the FBI.
“Courts were being shut down, and schools were being shut down. We couldn’t do our job in the police department like we did in previous years,” said Boyce, adding that the police-involved killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis also led to mistrust of law enforcement and prompted calls to defund police departments.
Homicides in New York City went from 317 in 2019 to 462 in 2020, a 44% increase, according to NYPD crime statistics. Homicides jumped another 4% in 2021 to 488.
During the pandemic, which wasn’t declared over until May 2023, homicides dramatically increased in other major cities.
Chicago recorded 769 homicides in 2020, which was 274 more than the previous year, and jumped to 797 in 2021, according to Chicago Police Department data.
Philadelphia saw a 40% increase in homicides in 2020 compared to 2019, according to Philadelphia Police Department data. In 2021, homicides continued to climb, hitting a record high of 562.
“We fought back. We completely redid our police department to be more narcotics-focused and increased our narcotics division. And we saw the gradual decreases,” Boyce said of the NYPD.
As of Dec. 28, homicides are down in New York City by 21% this year compared to 2024. Earlier this month, New York Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch announced that in the first 11 months of 2025, the nation’s largest city saw the fewest shooting incidents and shooting victims in recorded history.
Boyce said the NYPD and other law enforcement agencies also worked with federal prosecutors to target gang members, who Boyce said were a major driver of violent crime during the pandemic and continue to be now. The federal government also strengthened partnerships with local police agencies and provided grants to support programs to reduce violent crime.
“I’m seeing now that we’re back to normal. The reset is here. That’s great news,” Boyce said.
Asked if the country is back to pre-pandemic crime levels, Boyce said, “We’re just a little above and not much.”
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