Economists say Trump tariff threats, DOGE job cuts are ‘chilling’ the economy
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(WASHINGTON) — Economists say the uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and mass layoffs of government workers are starting to have a “chilling” effect on the U.S. economy.
“It’s a very difficult business environment, because they can’t plan for what their cost structure is going to be,” said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. “It’s adding to investment uncertainty, and some people are holding back on investments.”
Trump has so far imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports and says he’ll impose additional 10%, plus 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. Trump also says he will impose “reciprocal tariffs” that match the duties other countries levy on the U.S. That comes on top of tariff plans on cars, semiconductors, steel and aluminum. Even if Trump doesn’t ultimately move forward with all his tariff threats, the mere uncertainty has a chilling effect.
“If one of the inputs of your factory goes up by 25%, you might cut your production and say maybe we’ll have to fire some people,” Ziemba added.
Meanwhile, the Department of Government Efficiency’s slashing of the federal workforce across the country “also impacts consumption, because people are losing their jobs or are afraid of losing their jobs, so that might cause them to save more money,“ Ziemba said.
This week, The Conference Board’s consumer sentiment survey found that it registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021.
“Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a 10-month high,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for global indicators at The Conference Board.
“Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs,” Guichard said.
The Canada and Mexico tariffs would have a sweeping effect, since those are America’s two biggest trading partners. It could raise prices at the grocery store and the gas pump. Ziemba also noted that the cost of cars could increase by several thousand dollars.
“Every time a car part crosses the border, 25% tariffs could be very onerous,” Ziemba said. “We could see the cost of building a house go up quite substantially.”
(WASHINGTON) — An independent watchdog probe uncovered no evidence that federal agents were involved in inciting the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol, according to a report released Thursday, undercutting years of baseless claims spread by far-right political figures who have alleged the FBI played a significant role in the attack.
The long-awaited report by Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz found no evidence that FBI undercover employees were present among the thousands of Trump supporters who stormed the building, or even among the crowds of Trump’s supporters who attended protests around Washington, D.C. that day.
While the report confirmed there were 26 informants in Washington, D.C., who were dubbed within the FBI as “confidential human sources” or CHSs, Horowitz uncovered no evidence suggesting that any were instructed to join the assault on the Capitol or otherwise encourage illegal activity by members of the pro-Trump mob.
Moreover, the IG’s report found that three of the confidential informants were specifically tasked by FBI field offices with reporting on suspects in specific domestic terrorism cases who were believed to be attending events on Jan. 6, and one of those entered the Capitol during the riot itself.
Twenty-three others were in Washington but were not found to have been instructed to be there by any FBI field offices, and of those 23, three entered the Capitol while 11 entered the restricted areas around the building, the probe found.
The report found that none of the four informants who entered the Capitol have been prosecuted to date by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia.
In a statement responding to the report’s findings, the U.S. Attorney’s Office said they have generally “not charged those individuals whose only crime on January 6, 2021 was to enter the restricted grounds surrounding the Capitol, which has resulted in the Office declining to charge hundreds of individuals; and we have treated the CHSs consistent with this approach.”
While the FBI has faced serious scrutiny over the past four years over whether they failed to properly prepare for Congress’ election certification and the possibility of an attack on the Capitol by Trump’s supporters, Horowitz’s report determined that the bureau “took significant and appropriate steps in advance of January 6” as part of its supporting role that day.
The report also found that the FBI did not properly canvass all the field offices for intelligence on potential activity prior to the attack.
FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate described the lack of a canvass prior to Jan. as a “basic step that was missed,” and told the inspector general’s office that he would have expected a formal canvassing of sources to have occurred.
The inspector general found that while the FBI did not intentionally mislead Congress about the lack of canvassing field offices, they were not accurate in their assessment.
In June of 2023, Senate Democrats released a report that directly faulted the FBI for failing to “sound the alarm and share critical intelligence information that could have helped law enforcement better prepare for the events of January 6th.”
The report detailed a series of tips and other online traffic in advance of Jan. 6 that the lawmakers said the FBI was aware of that gave clear indications Trump’s supporters were planning for violence to prevent the certification of President Biden’s 2020 victory.
In the leadup to Jan. 6, the FBI did not have any “potentially critical intelligence” in their possession that wasn’t provided to other law enforcement entities, the IG said in the new report released Thursday.
More than 1,500 people across nearly all 50 states have been charged in connection with the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, with crimes ranging from illegal trespassing on Capitol grounds, to assaults on federal officers and seditious conspiracy.
Court proceedings over the past three years, including in the seditious conspiracy trial against members of the far-right Proud Boys group, have shed light on some FBI informants who were either monitoring or among those in the crowd of Trump’s supporters on Jan. 6, 2021. Right wing media and some far-right political figures have seized on the presence of confidential human sources to push the conspiracy theory that the FBI or ‘deep state’ was involved in fomenting the crowd to violence — claims that even many attorneys for Jan. 6 defendants have rejected as false.
“Our review determined that none of these FBI CHSs was authorized by the FBI to enter the Capitol or a restricted area or to otherwise break the law on January 6, nor was any CHS directed by the FBI to encourage others to commit illegal acts on January 6,” Horowitz said in a statement announcing his report.
(WASHINGTON) — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a jab at President Donald Trump after Canada’s victory over the United States in an international hockey tournament on Thursday.
“You can’t take our country — and you can’t take our game,” Trudeau wrote on X.
Canada bested the United States 3-2 with an overtime goal to win the 4 Nations Face-Off at TD Garden in Boston. Participating teams included NHL hockey stars from Canada, Finland, Sweden and the United States.
The highly-anticipated final came after a fiery clash between Canada and the U.S. in an earlier game on Feb. 15 where several fights broke out in the opening seconds of the first period. The U.S. won that game 3-1.
Tensions are boiling over on the diplomatic front between the U.S. and Canada, as Trump frequently says he wants to make Canada the 51st state. He’s repeatedly referred to Trudeau as “governor” instead of prime minister
Trump’s also threatening high tariffs on Canada, the second largest trading partner to the U.S. The implementation of a 25% tariff against Canada and Mexico was paused for a month, pulling the U.S. back from a trade war with its neighbors.
Earlier in the tournament, fans in Montreal booed the U.S. national anthem before Team USA’s first game against Finland.
Trump called Team USA before Thursday night’s championship game.
He said he wanted to “spur them on towards victory tonight against Canada, which with FAR LOWER TAXES AND MUCH STRONGER SECURITY, will someday, maybe soon, become our cherished, and very important, Fifty First State.”
Trump said because of a prior commitment — a gathering of Republican governors in Washington — he couldn’t attend the game in Boston.
“But we will all be watching, and if Governor Trudeau would like to join us, he would be most welcome. Good luck to everybody, and have a GREAT game tonight. So exciting!” he wrote on his social media platform Truth Social.
Trump also shared a video on Truth Social from ESPN showing part of his call to the players.
“Just go out and have a good time tonight. I just want to wish you a lot of luck. You really are a skilled group of people. It’s an honor to talk to you and get out there, and there’s no pressure whatsoever,” Trump told them, prompting some laughs from the players.
Fired CFPB employee, Elizabeth Aniskevich says they were ‘tossed on the streets’ with no info, haven’t been able to get forms for unemployment; ABC News
(WASHINGTON) — For many, a federal government job was a marker of stability or a way to serve the country, in some cases a “dream” job.
But a week after the Trump administration started to hack away at government agencies, many employees who were cut are left fearing for their future and in the dark about their next steps.
Days after they’d been let go, employees at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s hadn’t received the paperwork they needed to file for unemployment, said Elizabeth Aniskevich, who was a litigation counsel for the agency before she was told her job was eliminated.
“It’s really been a total roller coaster of emotions,” she said. “I will say the solidarity among those of us who have been terminated has been amazing, but we can barely get information.”
Aniskevich was fired with 70 other employees who were still in their probationary period. Many of them are keeping in touch through a group chat.
“We have not received forms that are requested to file for unemployment,” she said. “We have no real understanding of when our health insurance terminates,” she said. “We just have no information. We were just basically tossed out on the streets, and so that has been angering and heartbreaking, and our pay stopped the day we got the termination letter, so we’re all without a paycheck as of Tuesday.”
“I think the main question is, ‘What are we going to do?’” she said.
“I’m a single person in my house. I’m responsible for my insurance and for my mortgage, and I worked really hard to buy this house on my own after putting myself through law school, and I don’t know how I’m going to continue to make mortgage payments very far into the future,” she said.
Aniskevich said she chose to work for the CFPB because she was raised in a military family that believed in service.
“My dad was in the military for 27 years, and he really instilled in me a commitment to this country and to public service,” she said.
Katie Butler, a Department of Education lawyer, knew her days with the agency were numbered.
“Ever since the start of the Trump administration, we knew there would be a cut in federal employees,” she said.
She and her colleagues also knew that the first people to go would be probationary employees with less protection.
And while she expected to be terminated, certainty came with the “Fork in the Road” notice, an email from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) that introduced a new program called “deferred resignation, that allowed them to continue to work until Sept. 30. Around 75,000 federal employees took the buyout, according to the White House.
Butler is also an adjunct professor at the Thomas R. Kline School of Law at Duquesne University in Pennsylvania, where she earned her law degree.
She says she was teaching a class when she got the Fork in the Road notice and didn’t see it immediately. The next day, she got a termination letter.
Her supervisors asked, “Did you get a termination notice, because we don’t know who got one.”
Butler doesn’t hold her abrupt termination against them.
“I don’t think this is coming from them, they are doing their best, but this is not the way you run the federal government system.”
Butler and her colleagues were told they could appeal through the Merit Systems Protection Board but she says she knows the decision would be hard to appeal.
The loss of her job has also hit her financially — she had just bought a house in June that she’s been remodeling and also has student debt of around $140,000.
Butler began working for the federal government “right out of college.”
She worked for the National Park Service and at the Bureau of Labor Statistics before getting into law school. In September 2024, she joined the Department of Education, where she had to complete a new probationary period despite having previously established career status.
She says the job she lost was “one of the exact jobs I went to law school for.”
“Career-wise, this is a big detour from what I expected,” she said. “I went to law school because I planned to work long-term as a public servant.”
Given what she calls “the somewhat disrespectful and unthoughtful way this is being handled,” Butler says she will take a detour away from the federal government.
“It’s honestly just really disappointing, from like a personal standpoint.”
Her plan is to go into general litigation at a mid-size to large law firm or a solicitor’s office. She has also considered local government work, given her experience.
She may go to work for a city. Even now, she is “still dedicated to doing good as a civil servant but not under the present circumstances.”
Victoria DeLano, who was an equal opportunity specialist in the education department’s Office for Civil Rights based in Birmingham, Alabama, said she was outraged when she received notice that she had lost her job last week.
“I think that the work that the Office for Civil Rights does is absolutely instrumental to children in my state,” she said.
“When you take out of the equation a fully staffed Office for Civil Rights, you’re taking away an avenue to resolution and an avenue to law enforcement, a really important avenue to law enforcement.”
“These students have no one else,” she said. They can still file complaints with OCR. Please understand OCR is understaffed at best, and OCR right now does not have external communication with you all. So I don’t know where they turn,” she added.
DeLano also called her position a “dream job.”
“It’s something that I’m extraordinarily passionate about because I believe with my history working with students with disabilities,” she said. “So I jumped at the chance to take this job, and absolutely loved it.”
She is concerned that the Trump administration has no clear plan to shrink the federal government, nor is it considering students with disabilities.
“This dismantling of our government right now is just being done with a sledgehammer without thought of what are the implications be to the individuals who are serviced by these agencies,” she said.
That sentiment is echoed by Butler.
“It takes a while to build a government system, but when [you] tear it down this quickly, it can cause a lot of damage,” she said. “The progress feels slow. This could take 100 years for us to rebuild.”
