(NEW YORK) — Concerns about inflation have increasingly turned to concerns about the job market. Last month’s weaker than expected jobs report led to turmoil in stocks.
The U.S. added 142,000 jobs in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Friday. The figure was lower than expectations.
The reports showed a slowing but steady job market. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%.
Jobs were added in construction and health care, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. July and June numbers were revised to show 86,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.
While these numbers are lower than expected, and do show a weakening job market, for now, this is still an economy that is adding a decent number of jobs. Given this latest data, the Fed is still on track to cut interest rates at its next meeting on Sept. 18.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell last month said “the time has come” to lower interest rates.
Powell indicated the Fed would soon bring interest rates down from a 23-year high. The shift could lower borrowing costs for everything from credit cards to auto loans to mortgages.
While the unemployment rate remains historically low, it ticked up to 3.8% last month. A sharp downward revision of job growth estimates in June and July lowered those totals by a combined 110,000 jobs.
(NEW YORK) — Oil prices climbed more than 3% on Tuesday in the immediate aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel.
The spike in prices is expected to push up the price of U.S. gasoline, experts told ABC News.
Drivers could face a price increase of between 10 and 15 cents per gallon, experts estimated. The national average price of a gallon of gas currently stands at $3.20, AAA data showed.
A further escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran could send oil and gas prices significantly higher, said Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Houston.
“Clearly this will have a huge impact on gas prices,” Krishnamoorti told ABC News. “There’s no doubt about that.”
Iran said the attack on Tuesday was retaliation for a wave of assassinations carried out by Israel over the last several weeks targeting Hezbollah leaders. Israel will have a “significant response” to Iran’s attack, an Israeli official told ABC News.
While sanctions have constrained Iranian oil output in recent years, the nation asserts control over the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a trading route that facilitates the transport of about 15% of global oil supply.
Passage through the Suez Canal, another important shipping route for crude oil, could be impacted by further attacks, as happened with Yemen-based Houthi attacks on freight ships earlier in the war, Krishnamoorti said.
Despite a recent uptick, the price of oil stands well below a 2022 peak reached when the blazing-hot economic rebound from the pandemic collided with a supply shortage imposed by the Russia-Ukraine war. Gas prices, meanwhile, have plummeted in recent months.
The U.S. set a record for crude oil production in 2023, averaging 12.9 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a federal agency.
The surge in U.S. production would help limit the impact of a possible supply disruption, though oil prices are set on a global market, where a major supply shock could not be entirely accounted for with U.S. oil output, Timothy Fitzgerald, a professor of business economics at the University of Tennessee who studies the petroleum industry, told ABC News.
“This is less troubling than it would’ve been a generation ago,” Fitzgerald said. “Today, we export more crude oil than we import.”
If both sides deescalate, the price of crude oil could quickly drop back to where it stood before the Iranian attack on Tuesday, Fitzgerald added.
“There would be no lasting importance of that,” Fitzgerald said.
The rise in oil prices comes at a relatively quiet period in the U.S. gasoline market. Drivers have enjoyed a sharp decline in gasoline prices over recent months, in part due to sluggish demand for gas as the busy summer traveling season has given way to an autumn slowdown.
Still, a regional war in the Middle East could upend the market and spike prices, experts said.
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina condemned Iran’s missile attack on Israel, calling it a “breaking point” on Tuesday and urging President Joe Biden’s administration to respond.
Graham called for oil refineries to be “hit and hit hard” and said his prayers are “with the people of Israel.”
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are monitoring the Iranian attack from the White House Situation Room. Biden directed the U.S. military to aid Israel’s defense against Iranian attacks and shoot down missiles.
ABC News’ Allison Pecorin and Jordana Miller contributed to this report.
(NEW YORK) — Concerns about inflation have increasingly turned to concerns about the job market. Last month’s weaker than expected jobs report led to turmoil in stocks.
Expectations are that Friday’s report will show 161,000 jobs added when it’s released at 8:30 a.m.
If jobs come in around expectations it would mean a slowing but steady job market. Some economists are expecting less, around 150,000, pointing out that August data can often come in worse than expected and can be revised later.
Still, a significantly worse-than-expected report could once again lead to concerns that the Fed’s rapid raising of interest rates has hurt the economy and job market more than previously known.
The Fed is on track to cut interest rates at its next meeting announcement on Sept. 18.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell last month said “the time has come” to lower interest rates.
Powell indicated the Fed would soon bring interest rates down from a 23-year high. The shift could lower borrowing costs for everything from credit cards to auto loans to mortgages.
While the unemployment rate remains historically low, it ticked up to 3.8% last month. A sharp downward revision of job growth estimates in June and July lowered those totals by a combined 110,000 jobs.
(NEW YORK) — The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate a half of a percentage point on Wednesday in a landmark decision that dials back its years-long fight against inflation and delivers relief for borrowers saddled with high costs.
The central bank’s first rate cut since 2020 came after a recent stretch of data had established the key conditions for a rate cut: falling inflation and slowing job gains.
In theory, lower interest rates help stimulate economic activity and boost employment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 200 points in the immediate aftermath of the announcement on Wednesday afternoon.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also climbed following the news.
“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month at an annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear.”
Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, though it remains slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.
Meanwhile, the job market has cooled. A weaker-than-expected jobs report in each of the last two months has stoked concern among some economists.
“We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability,” Powell said last month.
Prior to the decision, the chances of a rate cut were are all but certain, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
Market observers, however, were divided over whether the Fed will impose its typical cut of a quarter of a percentage point, or opt for a larger half-point cut. The tool estimated the probability of a half-point cut at 65% and the odds of a quarter-point cut at 35%.
A half-point cut risked overstimulating the economy and rekindling elevated inflation, while a quarter-point cut threatened to delay the type of economic jumpstart that may be required to avert a recession, Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, told ABC News in a statement.
“Rarely have market expectations been so torn” on the eve of a rate decision, Shah added.
Borrowers should not expect immediate relief, Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, told ABC News in a statement prior to the decision.
“This initial rate cut will have little immediate impact,” Renter said. “I anticipate many consumers and business owners will take the beginning of this change in monetary policy as a sign of hope.”
The rate cut on Wednesday would goes into effect less than 50 days before the November election.
The decision deviates from the policy approach taken by the Fed prior to many recent presidential elections, a Reuters analysis found. Policy rates were left unchanged for six to 12 months before the 2020, 2016, 2012 and 2000 U.S. presidential elections, according to Reuters.
To be sure, the Fed says it bases its decisions on economic conditions and operates as an independent government body.
When asked about the 2024 election at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Powell said, “We don’t think about politics.”
