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(NEW YORK) — El Nino is increasingly likely to return later this year, bringing potentially significant impacts to our weather, the upcoming hurricane season and global temperature trends, though its timing and strength remain uncertain, experts told ABC News.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an El Nino Watch on Thursday, meaning that conditions are favorable for its development over the next six months. NOAA’s latest forecast puts the chance of El Nino developing in June through August at 62%, with higher odds expected by the fall months.

El Nino refers to the warmer-than-average phase of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle where sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise and fall. The cooler-than-average phase is called La Nina, while near-average conditions are known as ENSO-neutral.

The current La Nina is expected to fade over the next month as equatorial Pacific waters warm, with ENSO-neutral conditions likely to persist through much of the Northern Hemisphere summer.

If El Nino forms, its potential strength remains highly uncertain. NOAA says there is roughly a 1 in 3 chance it will be strong by the end of the year, though current forecasts favor a weak-to-moderate event.

El Nino and La Nina events occur at irregular intervals, typically every 2 to 7 years. El Nino has been somewhat more frequent than La Nina in past observations, but both phases vary in timing and intensity from one cycle to the next.

Forecasters caution that El Nino predictions tend to be less accurate at this time of year and could change in the coming months.

“Keep in mind that because we’re making these forecasts during the spring season, a time of lower model accuracy, so there is large uncertainty,” said Michelle L’Heureux, physical scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

This is largely because spring in the Northern Hemisphere is when sea surface patterns across the tropical Pacific Ocean are in a transitional phase.

“Predictions issued at this time of year are typically less reliable due to the so-called boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known limitation affecting ENSO outlook skill,” the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in a statement.

There is usually a delay between the onset of El Nino and its associated effects, meaning it will likely be well into the second half of the year before impacts begin to unfold, based on the latest forecasts.

“An estimate for the length of time before consistent impacts are observed once El Nino forms is typically 1-2 months,” Jon Gottschalck, Chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center told ABC News. “This varies largely depending on other climate factors active at the time in both the tropics and extratropics, as well as the time of the year.”

Typical El Nino impacts across the United States

Impacts from El Nino, similar to La Nina, tend to be most consistent and pronounced from late autumn through early spring following the event’s onset, NOAA says.

Experts caution that the impacts on weather patterns are nuanced. Each season is different, and typical El Nino conditions don’t always materialize.

“Every El Nino is different in terms of timing, magnitude, and geographic extent, and such differences lead to variability in the impacts — on temperatures and rainfall, for example — on a global scale,” Andrew Kruczkiewicz, senior staff researcher at Columbia Climate School, said.

Typically, during El Nino, the northern half of the United States and parts of Alaska are more likely to see warmer than average temperatures, with near- to below-average temperatures favored along the southern tier of the U.S., most likely from Texas to the Southeast.

For precipitation, wetter than average conditions are typically observed along the southern tier of the U.S. in parts of California, the Southwest, Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. Below average precipitation is frequently observed across parts of the northern Rockies, south-central Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions.

El Nino typically increases the odds of above-average snowfall in the southern Rockies, south-central Plains, mid-Atlantic and coastal areas of the Northeast with below-average snowfall favored in the northern Rockies, northern Plains and Great Lakes regions.

“The more consistent impacts on precipitation and temperature don’t occur until the winter months — so for 2026-27,” L’Heureux added.

How El Nino could influence hurricane season activity

The impact of El Nino on this year’s Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons will largely depend on when it unfolds and how strong it gets.

El Nino conditions often suppress activity during the Atlantic hurricane season by producing unfavorable atmospheric winds. In the Eastern Pacific, the opposite occurs, with favorable conditions supporting above-average hurricane season activity.

“It will likely suppress the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season somewhat, with increased sinking air and upper level wind shear over the Atlantic,” said Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies.

Vertical wind shear, which refers to changes in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere, is often a primary factor in below-average hurricane season activity. Strong vertical wind shear can tear a developing tropical system apart or even prevent it from forming, NOAA says.

Other factors, such as sea surface temperatures, also play an important role in tropical cyclone development and strength. Unseasonably warm ocean waters can partially offset the effects of unfavorable atmospheric winds. However, that will largely depend on sea surface temperature readings as the hurricane season ramps up, which is still months away.

“It’s a little early to say how far below average the Atlantic might be. That will also depend on what the Atlantic sea surface temperatures do – right now they’re average or a little below,” Hazelton added.

NOAA is expected to issue its official hurricane season outlook in May. The Eastern Pacific season begins May 15, followed by the Atlantic season on June 1.

Since El Nino is only one of several important variables considered, Gottschalck said it is important to wait until the outlook is released in May.

Global temperature records could be challenged again

The year 2024 ranked as the planet’s warmest year on record, following the last El Nino event, which emerged in mid-2023 and persisted through spring 2024, according to NOAA.

“The warmer ocean temperatures associated with El Nino, together with its tendency to favor warmer conditions in many areas, often contribute to warmer than normal global annual temperatures,” Gottschalck said.

Record highs in global average temperature often occur during El Nino years, but the phenomenon isn’t the sole reason for the record-breaking warmth, climate scientists say. Short-term El Nino temperature spikes occur on top of the long-term global warming trend, which is primarily driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making. The most recent El Nino, in 2023-’24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement.

According to NOAA, 2025 ranked as the third-warmest year on record globally, trailing 2024 and 2023. The slightly lower ranking came amid recent La Nina conditions, which typically cause a temporary dip in global average temperatures.

Similar to the last event, El Nino typically has the greatest impact on global temperatures after it peaks, NOAA says, meaning a spike in global temperatures often lingers into the year following the event’s onset. The intensity of any upcoming El Nino will play a major role in whether global temperature records could be challenged in the near future.

According to the latest outlook from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, there is more than a 90% chance that 2026 will rank among the five warmest years on record, but the probability of it becoming the warmest year currently stands at about 1%. Those odds could rise significantly in 2027, depending on how the event unfolds.

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(NEW YORK) — The FBI said it is investigating a possible terrorism motive in a mass shooting early Sunday outside a bar in Austin, Texas, that left two people dead and more than a dozen others injured.

The suspected gunman was killed in a confrontation with police officers, who were already staged in the city’s entertainment district when the shooting broke out, Austin Police Chief Lisa Davis said at a news conference on Sunday.

The suspect has been identified as Ndiaga Diagne, a 53-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen who was born in Senegal, sources with knowledge of the matter told ABC News.

Davis said the suspect was living in Pflugerville, Texas.

The suspect was wearing clothing that referenced Allah and a T-shirt that referenced Iran, with an Iranian flag underneath the word, according to multiple law enforcement officials.

Diagne entered the U.S. in March 2000, on a B-2 tourist visa. In 2006, he adjusted to lawful permanent resident (IR-6) based on marriage to a U.S. citizen, according to multiple law enforcement officials.

He naturalized as a U.S. citizen in 2013. 

In 2022, he was arrested in Texas for a collision with a vehicle damage, a source told ABC News.

Alex Doran, the acting special agent in charge of the FBI’s San Antonio field office, said a motive for the shooting remains under investigation, but terrorism is a possible motive.

“There were indicators on the subject and in his vehicle that indicate potential nexus to terrorism,” Doran said Sunday. “Again, it’s still too early to make a determination on that.”

In a social media post on Sunday afternoon, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that President Donald Trump had been briefed regarding the shooting in Austin.

Davis said 911 callers began reporting a shooting on West Sixth Street in downtown Austin just before 2 p.m. She said the 911 callers stated that someone was shooting around Buford’s Bar.

“We know that a large SUV drove several times around the block in that area,” Davis said. “At one point, [the suspect] put his flashers on, rolled down his window and began using a pistol, shooting out of his car windows, striking patrons of the bar that were on the patio and that were in front of the bar.”

Davis said the suspect then parked his vehicle, got out and opened fire on people gathered on the sidewalk.

She said the Austin police department had a contingent of officers assigned to patrol the area in the busy West Sixth Street entertainment district. She said the officers were about 55 to 56 seconds away from where the suspect was shooting, and rushed toward the gunfire.

Davis said the suspect was walking in the direction of the police when officers confronted him and killed him.

Bystander video verified by ABC News captured the suspected shooter walking on the sidewalk toward police officers as he fired a barrage of shots. The video shows officers returning fire, striking the suspect before he falls to the ground as someone screams in the background, “Oh, my God!”

The sources told ABC News that the suspect initially fired five to seven shots from a handgun into a crowd of people before police said he exited his vehicle and was confronted by Austin Police officers.

“There is no question in my mind that the quick response of the police officers and of our EMS personnel and those professionals made a difference and saved lives,” Austin Mayor Kirk Watson said at the news conference.

Three Austin Police Department officers encountered a suspect armed with a gun on the street near Buford’s Bar, police said at an earlier news conference. The officers returned fire, fatally shooting the man, police said.

The FBI’s Joint terrorism Task Force is joining the investigation into the shooting, sources familiar with the matter told ABC News.

Law enforcement is also probing whether there were any mental health issues related to the suspected shooter, sources said, adding that as of now the shooting is considered an isolated incident, rather than part of a larger plot.

ABC News spoke via telephone with a woman in Texas, who confirmed that she is Diagne’s ex-wife. She said they divorced in 2022 and that she has not spoken to her ex-husband in four or five years. The woman said she knew nothing about the Austin shooting and said she was shocked when she heard about it.

Asked if her ex-husband was religious, she said, “He was religious, yeah.” She did not elaborate.

She said they previously lived in New York together and then, in 2017, moved to Texas because Diagne wanted more space for their family, including their two children. She said that before moving to Texas, her ex-husband went there for a week to check it out as a possible place to move, and then he came back to New York and told her, “Oh, I think you’re gonna love it, it’s quiet.”

She said they initially moved to San Antonio.

The Austin Police Department had earlier released a statement urging people to avoid the area near the 600 block of Rio Grande Street, the Downtown Austin block where the bar is located.

Photos and videos from the scene showed a major emergency response. Paramedics and officers arrived on the scene less than a minute after the first call came in, Chief Robert Luckritz, of the Austin-Travis County EMS, said on Sunday.

Three people, including a suspect, were pronounced dead at the scene, Luckritz said, adding that another 14 were transported to local hospitals for treatment for injuries.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said in a statement on Sunday that he has directed the state Department of Public Safety (DPS) to increase patrols in the West Sixth Street area during the weekends.

Abbott said that before the shooting, he directed the DPS and the Texas National Guard to intensify patrols and surveillance across the state in a precautionary measure in response to the joint U.S.-Israel military operation in Iran.

“This act of violence will not define us, nor will it shake the resolve of Texans,” Abbott said of the mass shooting. “To anyone who thinks about using the current conflict in the Middle East to threaten Texans or our critical infrastructure, understand this clearly: Texas will respond with decisive and overwhelming force to protect our state.”

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(COLUMBUS, Ohio) — A man is due in court on Monday for allegedly gunning down his ex-wife and her husband in their Ohio home and leaving their two young children alive, authorities said.

Dentist Spencer Tepe and his wife, Monique Tepe, were found shot to death on Dec. 30, according to Columbus police, and the mysterious case quickly garnered national intrigue.

On Saturday, police announced the arrest of Monique Tepe’s ex-husband, Michael McKee, after he was linked to a car seen on surveillance footage in the neighborhood, according to court documents.

McKee, a Chicago resident, was taken into custody in Illinois and is charged with premeditated aggravated murder, according to records.

McKee and Monique Tepe were married in 2015 and divorced in 2017, according to divorce records obtained by ABC Columbus affiliate WSYX. They did not have any children together, according to the records.

Spencer and Monique Tepe married in December 2020, according to their obituary.

The arrest came one day before the scheduled celebration of life service for the couple.

“Today’s arrest represents an important step toward justice for Monique and Spencer,” the family said in a statement. “Nothing can undo the devastating loss of two lives taken far too soon, but we are grateful to the City of Columbus Police Department, its investigators, and assisting law enforcement community. … As the case proceeds, we trust the justice system to hold the person responsible fully accountable.”

“Monique and Spencer remain at the center of our hearts, and we carry forward their love as we surround and protect the two children they leave behind,” the family said. “We will continue to honor their lives and the light they brought into this world.”

ABC News’ Matt Foster, Victoria Arancio and Nadine El-Bawab contributed to this report.

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