US poised to end 2025 with the largest one-year drop in homicides ever recorded: Experts

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(NEW YORK) — This year began with a deadly New Year’s Day car-ramming terrorist attack in New Orleans and is finishing with a flurry of horrific shootings, including a mass shooting at Brown University, but 2025 is also poised to end with the largest one-year drop in U.S. homicides ever recorded, according to data from cities both large and small.

Based on a sampling of preliminary crime statistics from 550 U.S. law enforcement agencies, the year is expected to end with a roughly 20% decrease in homicides nationwide, Jeff Asher, a national crime analyst, told ABC News.

“So, even taking a conservative view, let’s say its 17% or 16%, you’re still looking at the largest one-year drop ever recorded in 2025,” said Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics and a former crime analyst for the CIA and the New Orleans Police Department.

Experts say crime levels appear “back to normal” after a pandemic surge.

The dramatic drop in homicides surpasses a 15% decline in 2024, which was then the largest decrease on record, according to Asher. In 2023, the number of homicides across the country fell 13% and 6% in 2022, according to the FBI.

The number of homicides nationwide is expected to be the lowest since the FBI began keeping such records in 1960, Asher said.

Asher said his assessment is based on the Real-Time Crime Index, which he founded and is a collection of monthly crime data from 550 law enforcement agencies nationwide.

The FBI’s official annual report on crime isn’t expected to be released until the second quarter of 2026, leaving Asher and other experts to rely on preliminary data from a sampling of law enforcement agencies.

Preliminary data the FBI made public earlier this year showed that homicides across the country fell 18% between September 2024 and August 2025. The FBI data also showed an overall 9% decline in violent crime during the same time period and a 12% reduction in property crime.

“You’ve got places like Detroit, Philadelphia and Baltimore that are on track to have the fewest murders since the 1960s. New Orleans, in spite of the terrorist attack on January 1, is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1970,” Asher said. “San Francisco is on track to see the fewest number of murders since 1940.”

Homicides in Chicago are down 30% this year from 2024, according to crime statistics from the Chicago Police Department (CPD). The number of homicides this year is down 49% since 2021, when the city recorded nearly 800 homicides, the CPD data shows.

And it’s not just homicides that are plummeting to record lows in 2025, according to Asher.

“We’re seeing across-the-board drops in every type of reported crime, which happened in 2024 and we’re seeing again in 2025,” said Asher, adding that aggravated assaults across the country are down 8% this year and motor vehicle theft has fallen 23%.

My son was innocent
Despite the plunge in violent crime this year, the perception for some is that crime was rampant at certain points in a number of major cities.

The falling homicide numbers offered little solace to Tamara Tarpinian-Jachym, whose 21-year-old son, Eric Tarpinian-Jachym, was killed on June 30 when he was caught in the crossfire of a shooting in Washington, D.C., less than a mile from the White House.

“You can skew data any way you want,” Tarpinian-Jachym of Massachusetts told ABC News. “I believe that there’s more crime, violent crime, especially in our major cities.”

Three teenagers, including two brothers, were arrested on murder charges and are being prosecuted as adults in federal court in the death of Tarpinian-Jachym’s son, a University of Massachusetts student who, at the time he was killed, was a Congressional intern for Rep. Ron Estes, R-Kan. One of the suspects charged in his death was also charged in a separate homicide of a 17-year-old girl in Washington, D.C.

All three defendants charged in Tarpinian-Jachym’s homicide have pleaded not guilty.

“My son was innocent. Others were innocent victims of this crime. If more people died, it would have been a mass shooting. But my son was the only one who died,” Tarpinian-Jachym said.

Citing her own experience, Tarpinian-Jachym said blanket homicide statistics don’t take into account the suffering of family members like her left to grieve.

“It tears the family apart. You never have inner peace,” Tarpinian-Jachym said. “My heart goes out to all murder victims this year.”

Tarpinian-Jachym told ABC News that she agreed with President Donald Trump’s decision in August to deploy National Guard troops to Washington, D.C., and several other large cities to help combat crime. The decision followed a May 21 shooting at the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C., that killed two staff members of the Israeli Embassy and came even as crime was already down, according to the Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia (MPD) preliminary crime data posted online.

Homicides in Washington, D.C., as of Dec. 30, are down 31% compared to 2024, according to the MPD’s online data.

However, a lawsuit filed against the District of Columbia in 2020 by a former MPD sergeant-turned-whistleblower claimed the MPD routinely “misclassified crimes and that districts compete against each other to get the largest reduction in the crime statistics.” The lawsuit was settled out of court this past August. According to court documents, the District of Columbia agreed to dismiss the case “without any admission of any liability.”

On Dec. 14, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform released an interim staff report alleging that its investigation found MPD Chief Pamela A. Smith, who announced this month that she is stepping down, “pressured and at times directed commanders to manipulate crime data in order to maintain the appearance of low crime in the nation’s capital.”

In a Dec. 15 interview with NBC Washington, D.C., station WRC-TV, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser responded, saying, “I don’t see any evidence of that.”

Mass shootings drop in 2025
According to the Gun Violence Archive, a website that tracks shootings across the country, this year is poised to end with mass shootings down 22% from the 503 committed in 2024. The website defines a mass shooting as at least four victims shot, either injured or killed, not including the shooter.

Among the nearly 400 mass shootings across the country this year, two of the most devastating occurred at churches.

On Aug. 27, two children, ages 8 and 10, were killed and 21 people were injured at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis when a 23-year-old shooter opened fire through the windows of the school’s church during a service, police said. The suspect, Robin Westman, whose mother once worked at the church, died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound, authorities said.

On Sept. 28, four people were killed and eight others were injured in a mass shooting at a Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints chapel in Grand Blanc, Mich., according to the FBI. The suspect, 40-year-old Thomas Sanford of Burton, Mich., allegedly set fire to the chapel after crashing his truck into the building, authorities said.

Sanford, who served as a Marine sergeant and was deployed in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2007, was killed in a shootout with police.

And on Dec. 13, a gunman opened fire in a lecture hall at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, killing two students and injuring nine others. Following a weeklong search, the suspect, Claudio Manuel Neves Valente, a 48-year-old former Brown graduate student, was found dead at a New Hampshire storage facility from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound, authorities said.

Neves Valente is also suspected of killing MIT professor Nuno F.G. Laureiro two days after the Brown University shooting, according to federal prosecutors.

‘I’m seeing now that we’re back to normal.’
Despite the string of high-profile killings and attacks this year, Robert Boyce, a retired chief of detectives for the New York Police Department, said the dramatic drop in 2025 homicides is real.

Boyce said that when he retired from the NYPD in 2018, the city had fewer than 300 homicides that year.

But when the COVID pandemic hit in 2020, homicides across the country soared 30%, according to the FBI.

“Courts were being shut down, and schools were being shut down. We couldn’t do our job in the police department like we did in previous years,” said Boyce, adding that the police-involved killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis also led to mistrust of law enforcement and prompted calls to defund police departments.

Homicides in New York City went from 317 in 2019 to 462 in 2020, a 44% increase, according to NYPD crime statistics. Homicides jumped another 4% in 2021 to 488.

During the pandemic, which wasn’t declared over until May 2023, homicides dramatically increased in other major cities.

Chicago recorded 769 homicides in 2020, which was 274 more than the previous year, and jumped to 797 in 2021, according to Chicago Police Department data.

Philadelphia saw a 40% increase in homicides in 2020 compared to 2019, according to Philadelphia Police Department data. In 2021, homicides continued to climb, hitting a record high of 562.

“We fought back. We completely redid our police department to be more narcotics-focused and increased our narcotics division. And we saw the gradual decreases,” Boyce said of the NYPD.

As of Dec. 28, homicides are down in New York City by 21% this year compared to 2024. Earlier this month, New York Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch announced that in the first 11 months of 2025, the nation’s largest city saw the fewest shooting incidents and shooting victims in recorded history.

Boyce said the NYPD and other law enforcement agencies also worked with federal prosecutors to target gang members, who Boyce said were a major driver of violent crime during the pandemic and continue to be now. The federal government also strengthened partnerships with local police agencies and provided grants to support programs to reduce violent crime.

“I’m seeing now that we’re back to normal. The reset is here. That’s great news,” Boyce said.

Asked if the country is back to pre-pandemic crime levels, Boyce said, “We’re just a little above and not much.”

December 31, 2025

World news

Zelenskyy suggests Trump fly to Ukraine to help ‘end the war’

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago club on December 28, 2025 in Palm Beach, Florida. Trump invited Zelensky to his private club to work on the U.S.-proposed peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, as the conflict approaches four years since the sudden full-scale invasion by Russia on February 24, 2022. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

(LONDON) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday suggested that U.S. President Donald Trump should visit Ukraine, amid the latest U.S.-led push for a peace deal to end Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor.

“He talks about advocating a plan to end the war,” Zelenskyy said of Trump, answering questions in a group WhatsApp chat with reporters.

“I told him that we would be glad to see him. It is very useful for Ukraine. If U.S. President Trump flies to Ukraine, and it is desirable that he flies by plane not to Poland, but to Ukraine, then this will indicate that we definitely have the opportunity to count on a ceasefire,” Zelenskyy said.

Earlier this week, Trump told reporters that the negotiating teams are “getting a lot closer, maybe very close” to achieving a peace deal to end Moscow’s invasion, which has been ongoing since February 2022.

Zelenskyy traveled to Florida to meet with Trump on Sunday and discuss a 20-point plan that he described as a possible foundation for the end of the war. Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone before and after meeting Zelenskyy, the White House said.

On Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine is discussing the possibility of an American troop presence as part of a settlement, and as part of the post-war security guarantees Kyiv says it needs to prevent a repeat Russian attack.

“These are U.S. troops and that is why it is America that makes such decisions,” Zelenskyy said. “Of course, we are discussing this with President Trump and with representatives of the ‘Coalition of the Willing.'”

“We would like this. This would be a strong position in security guarantees,” Zelenskyy added.

Zelenskyy also denied Russian reports of a rift between the U.S. and Ukraine. On Monday, Moscow accused Kyiv — without providing any supporting evidence — of launching a drone attack on Putin’s residence in the Novgorod region.

After speaking with Putin by phone about the alleged attack, Trump said he was “very angry,” though also acknowledged that it may not have happened.

“Despite all the media accusations of the Russians about the breakdown of our talks with the Americans, we are working every day,” Zelenskyy told reporters.

The Ukrainian president said there had been “several calls” on Tuesday between Rustem Umerov — the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council and a key negotiator — and American representatives, among them presidential envoy Steve Witkoff. “We are discussing our next steps,” Zelenskyy said.

Zelenskyy also posted to social media on Tuesday previewing a gathering of national security advisers of the mostly European “Coalition of the Willing” nations in Ukraine on Jan. 3, which is expected to be followed by a meeting of national leaders in France on Jan. 6.

Trump’s predecessor, President Joe Biden, made in February 2023 a surprise trip to Kyiv, where he met with Zelenskyy prior to the first anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Biden flew into Poland and undertook a 10-hour train journey to get to the Ukrainian capital, senior administration officials said at the time.

Both Russia and Ukraine continued their exchange of long-range drone strikes overnight.

Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched 127 drones into the country overnight into Wednesday morning, of which 101 were shot down or suppressed. Twenty drones impacted across 11 locations, the air force said.

The southern port city of Odesa was among the targets of the latest overnight barrage, officials said.

Odesa Gov. Oleh Kiper said in a post to Telegram that at least six people were injured by Russian drone strikes, among them three children. One adult was hospitalized and is in a critical condition, Kiper said.

“In total, four multi-apartment residential buildings, at least 14 cars and private garages were damaged,” Kiper said.

“These attacks are another indication of the terrorist tactics of the enemy, who deliberately attacks the civilian infrastructure of peaceful cities in the Odesa region, threatening the lives and health of people,” the governor added.

Kiper also reported at least two fresh strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the Odesa region. “Overall, during December, 10 substations in Odessa and the region were damaged as a result of enemy shelling,” he wrote. “Since the beginning of the year, Russia has attacked 25 energy facilities in the region.”

“The damage is significant and the repair work will take time,” Kiper said.

Russia’s Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said its forces shot down 86 Ukrainian drones overnight into Wednesday morning, of which 56 were reportedly downed over the Black Sea.

Rosaviatsiya — Russia’s federal air transport agency — reported temporary flight restrictions at airports in the southern Russian cities of Gelenjik and Krasnodar, as well as in Ivanovo and Yaroslavl which both sit northeast of Moscow.

December 31, 2025

Business

The new cars and SUVs everyone will be talking about in 2026

The all-new 2026 Kia K4 Hatchback is on display during the 2025 Los Angeles Auto Show at the Los Angeles Convention Center on November 21, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Josh Lefkowitz/Getty Images)

(NEW YORK) — If you’re looking for a new set of wheels next year, the choices can be overwhelming.

From 3-row SUVs to wagons and futuristic electric vehicles, buyers can select from a wide range of powertrains, prices and body styles.

Which models are already generating excitement in the industry? ABC News spoke to several insiders to get their take on the hottest vehicles headed to showrooms.

Mercedes-Benz CLA and GLB

The German automaker has a busy 2026 schedule planned with the launches of several newly updated models, including the CLA sedan, GLB SUV and the flagship S-Class.

Mercedes’ designers reimagined the interior of the GLB, which can be configured for five or seven passengers. The latest model offers greater comfort: headroom has increased as well as legroom for second-row passengers. A new panoramic roof is standard and owners can opt for a “floating” MBUX Superscreen that extends across the entire dashboard.

Buyers have three powertrains from which to choose. There’s a new 1.5-liter, inline-4 gasoline hybrid, and two electrics: the 250+ (268 horsepower) and 350 4MATIC (349 hp). The GLB can charge up to 260 kilometers (162 miles) of range in 10 minutes, according to Mercedes, and the hybrid version drives in electric-only mode at city speeds.

The latest CLA, available as an electric sedan ($47,250 for the 250+ and $49,800 for the 350 4MATIC) and hybrid, may be even more important for the luxury automaker. The entry-level car packs a ton of tech inside, making it “among the most intelligent vehicles from Mercedes-Benz to date,” according to the automaker.

The same four-cylinder turbocharged engine in the GLB powers the CLA220 hybrid, which is mated to an eight-speed dual-clutch transmission. A large, fixed panoramic glass roof in the CLA helps make the interior feel larger and more spacious. The CLA hybrid will be easy to spot at night: its radiator grille is adorned with the Mercedes‑Benz star pattern in chrome.

The electric CLA can travel 374 miles on a charge, according to Mercedes. Underneath the shell is an 800-volt electrical architecture, which allows the 48-volt lithium-ion battery to recoup roughly 200 miles in 10 minutes. DC fast charging up to 320 kilowatts (kW) is possible, too.

“It’s our vision for an EV to charge like fuel. We’re pushing the limits of what is possible with the CLA. Range anxiety will go away,” according to Markus Schäfer, a Mercedes board member and its chief technology officer.

The marque’s suite of advanced driver assistance systems is also available in the CLA models. Pricing for the GLB and CLA hybrid will be announced in 2026.

Kia K4 Hatchback

The K4 Hatchback, a stylish wagon that debuted in April, starts at $24,890 and will be available for sale in early 2026.

“I am so excited for it,” Robby DeGraff, manager of product and consumer insights at AutoPacific, told ABC News. “Hatchbacks might be making a comeback. It has a humongous cargo area and will be fun to drive. In terms of value, this should be a winner.”

A 2.0-liter engine produces 147 horsepower and 132 lb-ft of torque. For a sportier ride, consumers can choose the GT-Line Turbo model ($28,790); the 1.6-liter, turbocharged engine makes 190 hp and 195 lb-ft of torque.

The K4 Hatchback is also a new design for the Korean automaker and comes equipped with features like a heated steering wheel, Harman Kardon audio system and Digital Key technology that allows an owner’s smartphone to function as virtual key.

Degraff said Kia’s latest iteration of the Telluride SUV, now available with a hybrid powertrain, should also be popular with consumers.

“A hybrid Telluride is long overdue — we will see a big take rate for the hybrid version,” he said. “Losing the V6 [engine] will be a bummer for some people … there are shoppers out there that want a V6 in their 3-row SUVs. But the Telluride will be hit no matter what.”

According to Kia, the turbo hybrid powertrain adds more power and acceleration than the previous model: a combined 329 hp and 339 lb-ft of torque. The driving range is an estimated 600 miles. Kia’s flagship SUV, including the X-Line and X-Pro variants, go on sale in Q1 of 2026 and will be assembled at Kia’s plant in Georgia.

“The Telluride changed what Kia is,” according to Tony Quiroga, editor-in-chief of Car and Driver. “There was a ton of value in the first generation. The new Telluride looks more expensive than it will be and probably start around $40,000.”

“This version gives off a Range Rover vibe,” Quiroga added.

Subaru Outback

Subaru packed a ton of new tech in the latest Outback, including a 12.1-inch high-resolution infotainment screen and advanced driver assistance features. Drivers can now enable a Hands-Free Assist function that works at speeds up to 85 mph on highways.

The automaker is calling the 2026 Outback “the most connected and capable Subaru yet” with the “biggest styling updates in the model’s history.”

DeGraff said the SUV’s updated styling – a new front fascia, larger grille and boxier profile – could be “make or break” for consumers, but the amenities are a “good value” and Subaru still offers “the best all-wheel drive system in the entire industry.”

For Quiroga, the design changes make the Outback look more like a traditional SUV versus a lifted wagon.

“The latest Outback has the refinement and practicality of a wagon but is still very car-like. I see that as a plus,” he said.

The seventh-generation Outback starts at $34,995 for the Premium trim.

Chevy Bolt

The polarizing Chevy Bolt, one of the few affordable EVs to be sold in the U.S, will make its return as a 2027 model, though production will be limited.

The Bolt had both its fans and detractors; the unpretentious crossover won over motorists for its range and simplicity at an appealing price.

The latest trims – the Bolt RS and LT – will start under $30,000 and charge 2.5x faster than the previous model. Owners can expect to get 255 miles of range on a fully charged battery. The Bolt also is the first Chevy to be fitted with a NACS [North American Charging Standard] charging port. Deliveries begin in the first half of 2025.

“We really like the old Bolt, it had a ton of practicality,” said Quiroga. “The upcoming Bolt has a bit more range and a newer battery.”

Added DeGraff: “The 2027 Bolt is a clone of the outgoing one but it has more modern tech. It has all the safety features and Super Cruise. For budget shoppers who want to go electric, the Bolt is a home-run product.”

BMW iX3

The all-new iX3, BMW’s first series-production Neue Klasse model, goes on sale in summer of 2026 and will be a “hugely important vehicle” for the marque, according to Alistair Weaver, editor-in-chief of Edmunds.

The compact sport utility vehicle’s ($60,000) two-box design underwent a dramatic metamorphosis, with the latest iteration taller, longer, wider and more commanding. It also has a range of up to 400 miles, according to BMW. Plus, the company’s 800V architecture could be a game-changer for the industry: BWM said iX3 drivers can add nearly 175 miles of range in less than 10 minutes (it has a maximum charging rate of 400 kW). The vehicle’s dual-motor all-wheel drive powertrain makes 463 hp and 476 lb-ft of torque.

“Most EV owners are happy with 300 miles, but this will do 400, and it can recharge almost twice as fast as a Tesla,” Jared Rosenholtz, editor at large for CarBuzz, told ABC News. “Not only is range anxiety gone, but so is motion sickness. You can not feel the regen braking working in the iX3. It’s the smoothest braking I’ve ever felt in my decade of reviewing cars. All of this will be available for just over $60,000, not $100,000.”

December 31, 2025

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