Congressional Republicans continue to introduce bills eliminating the Department of Education

(WASHINGTON) — As President-elect Donald Trump’s comments tanking House Speaker Mike Johnson’s short-term government funding bill sent House Republicans into a tailspin Wednesday night, Senate Republicans were left to try to make sense of the remaining pieces.

Congress must act to fund the government by midnight on Friday or risk a shutdown. With the House back at the drawing board, the clock is ticking.

The nature of government funding bills means that the Senate is usually in a wait-and-see posture until the House acts. That’s particularly true this time around, where Johnson has to wrangle his slim House majority into passing legislation that Trump will find palatable before the Senate decides whether they can accept it.

The looming funding deadline means that the Senate will in all likelihood be forced to stomach whatever Johnson manages to pass through the House unless it is so unacceptable that Senators are willing to shut the government down over it. Democrats still run the Senate for a few more days, and the 60-vote threshold in the Senate makes compromise essential.

During late votes Wednesday night, Senate Republicans weighed in on the current government funding situation with a little more than 48 hours until a shutdown.

Many say they weren’t happy with Johnson’s original proposal

Despite the challenges now facing Congress to finish up work on government funding, there are a number of Senate Republicans who concede they weren’t happy with the House proposal that Johnson put forward on Tuesday. Some are pleased that Trump got involved to encourage changes.

“This is supposed to be a CR that extends the status quo. And it’s supposed to be lean and mean,” Sen. John Kennedy, R-LA said. “Well, I mean, it may have been mean, but it wasn’t lean. And what I think we’re going to have to do to get it passed is go back to a real CR, which is just an extension of the status quo.”

Sen. Mike Rounds, R-SD, said all of the “crap” that was attached to the House CR was “very very disappointing to me.”

He signaled a willingness to support a clean CR with disaster relief.

There appears to be some eagerness to re-open discussion about a path forward, but the time is running out, and there are now a number of very thorny issues that will require a lot of negotiation with very little time.

Southern State Republicans draw the line at disaster relief

As House Republicans go back to the drawing board to try to satiate Trump’s demands, it’s clear they’ll have to balance them against all-out insistence from many Senate Republicans that billions in disaster relief remain tacked to this bill.

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, whose home state of South Carolina was deeply impacted by Hurricane Helene, said he will vote against a funding bill that doesn’t include relief for his and other affected states.

He called it a “moral imperative to get money into the system.”

“We’ve got to have the disaster relief. I can’t go home and play like it didn’t happen,” Graham said. “To anybody who thinks that disaster relief is pork, come to where I live and see what happened in my state in North Carolina and Georgia.”

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-NC, whose home state was affected by both Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, said he’d do everything in his power to slow down the passage of any government funding bill that doesn’t include funding for relief.

“I feel very strongly. [If] we don’t get disaster in the bill I’ll do everything to keep us there until we do,” Tillis said.

Tillis said he spoke with VP-Elect Vance Wednesday and said Vance “gets” the importance of disaster aid.

“JD gets it. I spoke with him this afternoon. He understands the need to get disaster follow-up in there,” Tillis said. “Most people, at least JD and others, believe that we have to do the disaster supplement.”

Republicans open to debt limit hike, but skeptical about accomplishing it on this timeline

Trump complicated government funding matters significantly with an eleventh-hour push to include a hike to the federal debt limit in this package. It has left some Republicans unclear on a path forward.

“I don’t think he’s wrong,” Sen. John Kennedy, R-LA, said when asked if Trump’s debt limit proposal was helpful. “But it complicates the matter.”

That’s an understatement.

Debt limit negotiations have in prior years taken months upon months to carefully weave together. A number of Senate Republicans conceded tonight that while they’d support raising the debt limit in this bill, getting to yes on it in the tiny window of time left will be a real challenge.

“I don’t know how we do that,” Sen. Mike Rounds, R-SD, said. “I mean, I’m open to ideas on it but I don’t know how we do that.”

Graham said he’d leave decisions about the debt limit to Trump but conceded that Democratic buy-in would be necessary to do it.

“I don’t know how this plays into things. I do know this, we don’t want to default. There are a lot of Republicans who will never vote to raise the debt ceiling for ideological reasons,” Graham said.

Sen. John Cornyn, R-TX, acknowledged that getting all Republicans on board a debt limit hike would be a challenge.

“I don’t know if Republicans are going to vote for that, particularly the Freedom Caucus, so I guess we’ll take it one step at a time,” Cornyn said.

Tillis also acknowledged that Democrats would have to buy into a plan to hike the debt limit. And with the deadline to do so still months off, he said he was unsure what would inspire Democrats to participate in eleventh-hour negotiations on the issue.

“I just think there’s got to be something more to it than a demand that it get in, because again there’s no burning platform,” Tillis said.

Calls with Trump

Sen. Josh Hawley, R-MO, said he spoke to Trump just before he issued his original statement today that discouraged Republicans from supporting the short-term government bill put forward by Johnson.

Hawley said that Trump thought Speaker Johnson’s CR was a “total disaster.”

Hawley criticized Johnson for what he said was “clearly” not reading Trump into the negotiation process of the bill.

“I made this point to him, to the president that is, about the House Leadership. I mean, is this going to be the norm? Is this how we’re going to operate? They’re going — is this going to be the standard that we are setting?”

ABC News asked Hawley if Trump expressed frustration with Johnson specifically, and Hawley said “yes.”

But that was refuted by Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-OK.

“I have spoken to the president several times today. I would not classify, I would not classify it as being frustrated with the Speaker,” Mullin said.

Mullin said that it was articulated to Johnson for “awhile” that Trump wanted a debt limit hike.

“He does want the debt limit included in whatever package they put forth, but he’s as far as being upset, I absolutely do not agree with that.

The Musk factor

Senators seemed to downplay the significance of Elon Musk’s influence on the current situation. Musk took to his social media platform X to repeatedly slam the Johnson-backed bill on Wednesday.

“I think there are people putting too much weight on Musk or anybody else opining. I think there were structural challenges to begin with,” Tillis said. “These outside influences have an impact, but I think that that came from within not from without. I’ve seen some of the reports about how Elon basically vetoed it. I’m sure his voice weighed in, but it had, it clearly had a structural problem before anybody opined on it.”

Hawley, when asked about Musk’s weighing in, seemed to push concerns aside.

“As somebody who doesn’t like the CR, I welcome the criticism,” Hawley said.

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(WASHINGTON) — Montana state Rep. Zooey Zephyr — the first openly trans lawmaker in the state — has won her bid for reelection to the Montana House of Representatives after she was censured and barred from the House floor for almost two years. Her win allows Zephyr to take to the House floor for debate once more.

Zephyr’s censure stemmed from her pleas on the House floor against a gender-affirming care ban for transgender youth.

“If you are denying gender-affirming care and forcing a trans child to go through puberty, that is tantamount to torture, and this body should be ashamed,” Zephyr said in the April 18, 2023 debate. “If you vote yes on this bill, I hope the next time you bow your heads in prayer, you see the blood on your hands.”

She later elaborated on the comments in an April 2023 interview with ABC News, arguing that gender-affirming support and care improves the mental health of trans children, who face higher rates of discrimination and bullying.

“I have lost friends to suicide this year,” Zephyr said. “I’ve had families call me when there have been … suicide attempts by trans youth, including one trans teenager who attempted to take her life watching one of these hearings on legislation targeting the transgender community.”

Republican lawmakers responded to her comments on the House floor by refusing to allow her to speak or comment on the House floor, she said. Some legislators, including House Speaker Matt Regier, argued she had broken House rules of decorum.

Demonstrators in support of Zephyr interrupted House business several days later to protest her silencing, and she showed her support by holding up her mic.

“Let her speak,” protesters chanted.

House Republicans voted to censure her in response, representing just over the two-thirds needed to bar her from the House floor.

“All representatives are free to participate in House debate while following the House rules. The choice to not follow House rules is one that Representative Zephyr has made,” said Regier in a statement to reporters following the censure. “The only person silencing Representative Zephyr is Representative Zephyr.”

Several of her colleagues argued that Zephyr was inciting “violence” and showing “flagrant disregard for the safety and well-being” of those at the House, according to one statement from the Montana Freedom Caucus.

Zephyr argued the real violence is the negative impact gender-affirming care bans may have on transgender youth.

The day after her censure, Zephyr could be found seated in the public area of the state capitol building, voting and participating with her laptop as close to the House floor as she was allowed.

“The people sent me here to do the work, and much of that work is on the House floor,” she told ABC News at the time. “I need to be as close as possible, so I can have the conversations with legislators and make sure that I can, at least in some way, make sure the voice of my constituents can be discussed.”

Zephyr filed a lawsuit against the state, Regier and Sergeant at Arms for the Montana House of Representatives Bradley Murfitt in an attempt to reinstate her legislative privileges and duties. The lawsuit was dismissed.

“The recent actions violate my 1st amendment rights, as well as the rights of my 11,000 constituents to representation,” Zephyr said in a tweet Monday. “Montana’s State House is the people’s House, not Speaker Regier’s, and I’m determined to defend the right of the people to have their voices heard.”

Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen’s office, which represented the state against the lawsuit, denounced the effort as “political activism masquerading as a lawsuit.”

“The ACLU is trying to use the courts to interfere with the legislature as it carries out its constitutional duties on behalf of Montanans,” said Emily Flower, Knudsen’s press secretary. “Any relief granted by the court would be a gross violation of the separation of powers.”

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(WASHINGTON) — As Election Day nears, tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots throughout the country.

Whether through mail-in ballots or early in-person polling stations, more than 68 million Americans, roughly 43% of the 2020 turnout, had voted against standing in line on Election Day as of Friday afternoon, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

Academic experts, reporters and pundits have been going through basic and limited data gleaned from the early voting numbers, trying to get clues about next week’s outcome.

That picture, however, is not exactly black and white, according to Charles Stewart, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s election data science lab.

“It’s like talking about the weather,” he said. “The candidates, the press, etcetera — really are trying to draw conclusions just on the face value of the data, but there really isn’t a lot there to say who is winning.”

That said, Stewart said the early voting data does provide some insights when it comes to this year’s voting patterns and overall turnout — indicators that could help explain how the election turns out.

A flip in the ways people early vote

Voting trends have shown that more people have been choosing to cast their ballots before Election Day, and this has increased in numbers over the last 30 years, but 2020 turned out to be a major outlier, according to Stewart.

In the last presidential election, 69% of the 158 million total votes were cast before Election Day either through the mail, which included mail ballots dropped off in person, or at early voting poll sites, according to data from MIT.

Some 43% of the 2020 early votes came from mail ballots, according to the data.

Stewart said the COVID-19 pandemic forced many voters, who were already heavily engaged and wanted to be safe, to opt into using mail ballots or smaller voting lines if available.

“There was a speculation of what would happen with the shift once the pandemic was over,” he said.

However, in this year’s early voting there’s been a drop in voters choosing mail-in voting, Stewart said.

“The main trend I’m seeing is that the interest of voting by mail has shifted to voting in-person,” Stewart said.

He noted that shift is apparent in Georgia, which has seen record early voting numbers, with over 3.8 million ballots cast as of Friday. Roughly 92% of those were cast at in-person polling places and the rest via mail, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.

Stewart said some states, including swing states Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, only offer early voting through in-person absentee options. Under this option, a voter must request an absentee ballot, fill it out, and then deposit it in either a ballot box or at a designated location, and they are counted as a mail ballot voter.

Some voters may not have the time or energy to go through those extra steps to cast their ballots early, and are likely going to vote in-person Stewart said.

“If you have to vote early in person you have to figure out where that precinct is but you have to find out which is closer to your house or errands. With voting by mail, you have to take the effort to apply, to fill it out and return it and hope that the mail is delivered on time,” he said. “With Election Day voting you likely have a polling site that is much closer to you.”

Early-voting method preference hasn’t the only thing that’s seen a flip, according to Stewart.

Partisan numbers do not give any indication of outcome

Stewart said historical trends show that the majority of early voters made their decisions a long time ago and are likely politically active.

This year’s data shows that to be the case, he said, bit noted a major change in partisan turnout in several battleground states, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

Registered Republicans have seen a higher early voting turnout in battlegrounds Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina in this election compared to 2024 as of Friday, according to the data.

Typically, Democrats have had an advantage in early voting. However, Trump has pushed his supporters to cast their vote earlier and that appears to have an impact, Stewart said.

While Republican officials have been touting these higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart warned there is more nuance to the data.

He noted it shows, so far, that a large number of the registered Republicans who cast their votes eary came from people who voted on Election Day in 2020 and were not new voters.

Stewart said this would mean there would be fewer Republican voters casting their ballots on Election Day and thus their votes may not be reported until much later on election night or even for days afterward.

In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic tallies rise throughout the election night and into the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.

That mirage and “blue wave” could be muted this time around, Stewart said.

“Whatever the blue shift is, there will probably be less of a steep slope to it,” he said.

What do gender, race say about the early vote

Democrats have been touting the gender gap as a factor in their favor in the early voting numbers, as over 54% of women have cast their vote as of Friday, according to the University of Florida data.

Stewart said that assumption is not noteworthy.

Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, going as far back as 1980, according to the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Stewart said this is also true of early voters.

“It’s not always obvious to the public that there’s always been a gender gap,” he said.In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic tallies rise throughout the election night and into the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.

That mirage and “blue wave” could be muted this time around, Stewart said.

“Whatever the blue shift is, there will probably be less of a steep slope to it,” he said.

What do gender, race say about the early vote

Democrats have been touting the gender gap as a factor in their favor in the early voting numbers, as over 54% of women have cast their vote as of Friday, according to the University of Florida data.

Stewart said that assumption is not noteworthy.

Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, going as far back as 1980, according to the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Stewart said this is also true of early voters.

“It’s not always obvious to the public that there’s always been a gender gap,” he said.

When it comes to race, white voters are more likely to cast their votes by mail than Black voters, according to the MIT data.

Stewart said this stems from traditions going back to the civil rights movement.

“African Americans fought and sometimes died for being able to march into the voting booth. That’s been instilled in the community,” he said.

This practice is one factor in large numbers of Black voters heading to in-person early voting poll sites in states such as Georgia and South Carolina, where that option is available.

Churches, civil rights groups and other organizations with ties to the Black community have been pushing voters to head to the early voting polls, using campaigns such as “souls to the polls” so that they can avoid any complications on Election Day.

Groups in Georgia in particular have stressed voting early to circumvent some of the restrictive voting laws that have been put in place since the 2020 election.

As of Friday evening, more than 1 million Black voters have cast their ballots, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.

“The mobilization efforts have clearly proven effective,” Stewart said.

Signs point to high turnout

Stewart said the one definite conclusion that can be drawn from the early voting data is that this year’s overall turnout will be “on par” with 2020’s, which was the highest voter turnout by percentage in over 100 years.

“It could be the high 160 (million),” he estimated.

Stewart said that the early-voting trends have shown that voters under 25 have not yet voted and they will typically line up on Election Day.

“Those populations are really heavily represented on Election Day,” he said.

Stewart reiterated that with the pandemic over, a good number of the 2020 early voters will likely shift back to Election Day voting, especially if it presents itself as the easier option for their locations and schedules.

As for the future, Steward predicted that the rise in Republican voters voting early will continue in future cycles along with the overall trend of the electorate opting for early voting.

“The data is showing this organic increase in early voting even after the pandemic,” he said. “Voters want more options, and they will seriously consider voting if they have more choices.”

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