Election fact check: How voting machines work and why they’re hard to hack

(WASHINGTON) — Arlington National Cemetery has confirmed to ABC News that during former President Donald Trump’s visit on Monday, an “incident” related to photos being taken at the site occurred, leading to a report being filed.

When contacted by ABC News on Tuesday night, a representative for the Arlington National Cemetery released a statement that confirmed an “incident” but didn’t provide specifics.

“Federal law prohibits political campaign or election-related activities within Army National Military Cemeteries, to include photographers, content creators or any other persons attending for purposes, or in direct support of a partisan political candidate’s campaign. Arlington National Cemetery reinforced and widely shared this law and its prohibitions with all participants. We can confirm there was an incident, and a report was filed,” the statement read.

Trump campaign’s communications director, Steven Cheung, posted on X what he said was proof of the team’s approval to have an official photographer and videographer outside the main press pool.

“Only former President Trump may have an official photographer and/or videographer outside of the main media pool,” a screengrab of what appears to be an access guideline posted by Cheung reads. However, it should be noted that campaign officials — not professionals — were also taking photos and videos of the day’s events.

Cheung also claimed on Tuesday night after the news broke that, “There was no physical altercation as described [by some reports], and we are prepared to release footage if such defamatory claims are made” in a statement to ABC News.

Trump campaign staffers posted multiple pictures and videos of Trump visiting Arlington Cemetery, including from what appears to be Section 60, using the moment to criticize Vice President Kamala Harris’ absence. Trump was at the cemetery on the third anniversary of the attack at Abbey Gate during the withdrawal from Afghanistan to pay tribute to the 13 U.S. Service members killed in the incident.

In one video posted by Trump campaign’s senior adviser Chris LaCivita, Trump can be seen laying flowers on the grave of Staff Sgt. Ryan Knauss, who died in the attack. LaCivita wrote in the post that Trump was speaking on the phone with Knauss’ family, who couldn’t make it to the ceremony on Monday.

Multiple other Trump campaign staffers posted photos from there, and some of the images were then shared by the Trump campaign on their official X account.

Prior to the event, the cemetery had been explicit in its rule that no Trump activity could be filmed during his visit to Section 60.

Monday’s press pool note read: “The family visit to Section 60 following the wreath laying is private and at their explicit request, there will be NO coverage at that location. Your POOL will wait inside the press van during this visit. POOL will then be taken to an unknown location for an OTR stop to round out the morning.”

In a statement to ABC News, LaCivita, a combat-wounded Marine, stressed that Trump “was there on the invitation of the Abbey Gate Gold Star Families to honor their loved ones who gave the ultimate sacrifice for their country,” calling the individual who attempted to block Trump campaign officials “despicable.”

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(RALEIGH, N.C.) — As North Carolinians continue to recover from the devastating impacts of Hurricane Helene, early voting begins Thursday in the critical swing state.

State election officials expect a majority of North Carolina voters to cast their ballot in-person over the next two weeks, with early voting concluding on Nov. 2.

More than 400 early voting sites are in operation across the state’s 100 counties.

“To have almost all early voting sites open after such a devastating storm is an effort all North Carolinians should be proud of,” North Carolina State Board of Elections executive director Karen Brinson Bell said Tuesday.

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remain neck-and-neck in the critical swing state, with Trump holding a 0.4% lead over Harris in 538’s polling average for the state.

Both candidates have visited North Carolina since the remnants of Hurricane Helene brought deadly floods to the state, where 95 people died and 92 remain missing. Trump has repeatedly made false claims about the federal response to the disaster, claiming that the state would be deprived of emergency aid from the Federal Emergency Management Agency because of undocumented immigrants.

“They got hit with a very bad hurricane, especially North Carolina and parts of Georgia. But North Carolina really got hit. I’ll tell you what, those people should never vote for a Democrat, because they held back aid,” Trump said during an interview last week.

While visiting a church in Greenville, North Carolina, on Sunday, Harris stopped short of naming Trump while criticizing the spread of disinformation about the relief efforts in the state.

“Right now, fellow Americans are experiencing some of the most difficult moments in their lives,” Harris said. “Yet instead of offering hope, there are those who are channeling people’s tragedies and sorrows into grievance and hatred, and one may ask why, and I think, sadly, frankly, the motives are quite transparent: to gain some advantage for themselves, to play politics with other people’s heartbreak.”

With recovery efforts ongoing, election officials have expressed optimism about the state’s early voting plans. In the 25 western counties included in the federal disaster declaration, 76 early voting sites have been confirmed — four fewer than originally planned.

“We lost just a few despite the extensive damage, loss of power, water, internet and phone service, and the washing out of roads throughout the region,” said Brinson Bell.

In past presidential elections, the majority of the state’s voters have cast their ballot during early in-person voting, with 65% using that method in 2020 and 62% in 2016. Election officials expect a similar portion of voters to vote early in person, and have enacted a series of measures to improve voting access in the counties hardest hit by Helene.

Voters in the impacted counties can drop off their absentee ballot at any early voting site throughout the state, and the state plans to deploy “multipartisan assistance teams” that can assist with absentee voting at disaster shelters.

This will also be the first presidential election where voters will need to provide photo identification to vote, after lawsuits delayed implementation of the state’s controversial voter ID law following its passage in 2018. Voters can provide a drivers’ license, student ID, or passport to vote, though exceptions are permitted in the case of natural disasters.

The only county to offer fewer early voting sites is hard-hit Buncombe County, whose officials opted to reduce their number of sites from 14 to 10 because of the ongoing emergency response.

“Our office has been preparing for the 2024 election for years, but we certainly didn’t expect this,” said Buncombe County director of election services Corinne Duncan.

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(WASHINGTON) — As Election Day nears, tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots throughout the country.

Whether through mail-in ballots or early in-person polling stations, more than 68 million Americans, roughly 43% of the 2020 turnout, had voted against standing in line on Election Day as of Friday afternoon, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

Academic experts, reporters and pundits have been going through basic and limited data gleaned from the early voting numbers, trying to get clues about next week’s outcome.

That picture, however, is not exactly black and white, according to Charles Stewart, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s election data science lab.

“It’s like talking about the weather,” he said. “The candidates, the press, etcetera — really are trying to draw conclusions just on the face value of the data, but there really isn’t a lot there to say who is winning.”

That said, Stewart said the early voting data does provide some insights when it comes to this year’s voting patterns and overall turnout — indicators that could help explain how the election turns out.

A flip in the ways people early vote

Voting trends have shown that more people have been choosing to cast their ballots before Election Day, and this has increased in numbers over the last 30 years, but 2020 turned out to be a major outlier, according to Stewart.

In the last presidential election, 69% of the 158 million total votes were cast before Election Day either through the mail, which included mail ballots dropped off in person, or at early voting poll sites, according to data from MIT.

Some 43% of the 2020 early votes came from mail ballots, according to the data.

Stewart said the COVID-19 pandemic forced many voters, who were already heavily engaged and wanted to be safe, to opt into using mail ballots or smaller voting lines if available.

“There was a speculation of what would happen with the shift once the pandemic was over,” he said.

However, in this year’s early voting there’s been a drop in voters choosing mail-in voting, Stewart said.

“The main trend I’m seeing is that the interest of voting by mail has shifted to voting in-person,” Stewart said.

He noted that shift is apparent in Georgia, which has seen record early voting numbers, with over 3.8 million ballots cast as of Friday. Roughly 92% of those were cast at in-person polling places and the rest via mail, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.

Stewart said some states, including swing states Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, only offer early voting through in-person absentee options. Under this option, a voter must request an absentee ballot, fill it out, and then deposit it in either a ballot box or at a designated location, and they are counted as a mail ballot voter.

Some voters may not have the time or energy to go through those extra steps to cast their ballots early, and are likely going to vote in-person Stewart said.

“If you have to vote early in person you have to figure out where that precinct is but you have to find out which is closer to your house or errands. With voting by mail, you have to take the effort to apply, to fill it out and return it and hope that the mail is delivered on time,” he said. “With Election Day voting you likely have a polling site that is much closer to you.”

Early-voting method preference hasn’t the only thing that’s seen a flip, according to Stewart.

Partisan numbers do not give any indication of outcome

Stewart said historical trends show that the majority of early voters made their decisions a long time ago and are likely politically active.

This year’s data shows that to be the case, he said, bit noted a major change in partisan turnout in several battleground states, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

Registered Republicans have seen a higher early voting turnout in battlegrounds Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina in this election compared to 2024 as of Friday, according to the data.

Typically, Democrats have had an advantage in early voting. However, Trump has pushed his supporters to cast their vote earlier and that appears to have an impact, Stewart said.

While Republican officials have been touting these higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart warned there is more nuance to the data.

He noted it shows, so far, that a large number of the registered Republicans who cast their votes eary came from people who voted on Election Day in 2020 and were not new voters.

Stewart said this would mean there would be fewer Republican voters casting their ballots on Election Day and thus their votes may not be reported until much later on election night or even for days afterward.

In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic tallies rise throughout the election night and into the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.

That mirage and “blue wave” could be muted this time around, Stewart said.

“Whatever the blue shift is, there will probably be less of a steep slope to it,” he said.

What do gender, race say about the early vote

Democrats have been touting the gender gap as a factor in their favor in the early voting numbers, as over 54% of women have cast their vote as of Friday, according to the University of Florida data.

Stewart said that assumption is not noteworthy.

Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, going as far back as 1980, according to the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Stewart said this is also true of early voters.

“It’s not always obvious to the public that there’s always been a gender gap,” he said.In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic tallies rise throughout the election night and into the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.

That mirage and “blue wave” could be muted this time around, Stewart said.

“Whatever the blue shift is, there will probably be less of a steep slope to it,” he said.

What do gender, race say about the early vote

Democrats have been touting the gender gap as a factor in their favor in the early voting numbers, as over 54% of women have cast their vote as of Friday, according to the University of Florida data.

Stewart said that assumption is not noteworthy.

Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, going as far back as 1980, according to the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Stewart said this is also true of early voters.

“It’s not always obvious to the public that there’s always been a gender gap,” he said.

When it comes to race, white voters are more likely to cast their votes by mail than Black voters, according to the MIT data.

Stewart said this stems from traditions going back to the civil rights movement.

“African Americans fought and sometimes died for being able to march into the voting booth. That’s been instilled in the community,” he said.

This practice is one factor in large numbers of Black voters heading to in-person early voting poll sites in states such as Georgia and South Carolina, where that option is available.

Churches, civil rights groups and other organizations with ties to the Black community have been pushing voters to head to the early voting polls, using campaigns such as “souls to the polls” so that they can avoid any complications on Election Day.

Groups in Georgia in particular have stressed voting early to circumvent some of the restrictive voting laws that have been put in place since the 2020 election.

As of Friday evening, more than 1 million Black voters have cast their ballots, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.

“The mobilization efforts have clearly proven effective,” Stewart said.

Signs point to high turnout

Stewart said the one definite conclusion that can be drawn from the early voting data is that this year’s overall turnout will be “on par” with 2020’s, which was the highest voter turnout by percentage in over 100 years.

“It could be the high 160 (million),” he estimated.

Stewart said that the early-voting trends have shown that voters under 25 have not yet voted and they will typically line up on Election Day.

“Those populations are really heavily represented on Election Day,” he said.

Stewart reiterated that with the pandemic over, a good number of the 2020 early voters will likely shift back to Election Day voting, especially if it presents itself as the easier option for their locations and schedules.

As for the future, Steward predicted that the rise in Republican voters voting early will continue in future cycles along with the overall trend of the electorate opting for early voting.

“The data is showing this organic increase in early voting even after the pandemic,” he said. “Voters want more options, and they will seriously consider voting if they have more choices.”

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