Jobs report shows hiring surge as Fed weighs interest rate cut
chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell/photo credit:Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg via Getty Images
(WASHINGTON) — U.S. hiring surged in November, bouncing back from a dismal performance in the previous month and returning to strong growth.
Employers added 227,000 workers last month, exceeding economist expectations of 214,000 additional jobs, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Friday showed. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, which remains historically low.
The fresh data offered a key clue about the health of the economy as the nation hurtles toward end-of-the-year holidays and the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. The findings could also help determine whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates when officials meet later this month.
U.S. hiring has defied doomsayers for years. Stubborn inflation, high interest rates and a contentious presidential campaign have proven no match for a resilient labor market.
A weaker-than-expected reading may have raised alarm and caused observers to revisit disappointing results in October, which many economists have attributed to one-off disruptions of data collection.
The labor market hit a rare speed bump in October as the economy added 12,000 jobs, its weakest performance since December 2020.
The data appeared to offer little more than a blurry snapshot due to data-gathering disruptions, however. A combination of hurricanes and work stoppages likely caused an undercount of hiring that month, experts told ABC News.
Despite an overall slowdown this year, the labor market has continued to grow. Hiring has persisted at a solid pace; meanwhile, the unemployment rate has climbed but remains near a 50-year low.
Overall, inflation has eased and the economy has expanded, giving rise to hope that the U.S. could achieve a soft landing.
U.S. GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate over three months ending in September, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data last month showed. That figure fell slightly below economists’ expectations, but demonstrated brisk growth that was propelled by resilient consumer spending.
Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of more than 9% in June 2022, but price increases remain slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.
The jobs report marks one of the last pieces of significant economic data before the Fed announces its next interest rate decision on Dec. 18.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
(WASHINGTON) — Autoworkers, farmers and alcohol distillers are among a set of U.S. workers who risk losing their jobs as a result of potential tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico, experts told ABC News.
The U.S. president was expected to sign executive orders on Tuesday putting in place the 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10% tariffs on those from China, according to the White House.
Trump announced on Monday that the proposed tariffs on most goods from Canada and all products from Mexico would be paused for one month, putting the policies on schedule to take effect in early March. The postponements came following conversations Trump had with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trump said Monday afternoon he plans to talk to China in the next day or two about tariffs on that country.
Some U.S. shoppers and economists have raised alarm about the potential for tariff-driven price increases, since importers typically pass along a share of the cost of the higher taxes to consumers.
A lesser-known effect of the potential tariffs, however, could arise as some retailers struggle to sell imported goods at competitive prices while manufacturers reckon with higher costs of raw materials such as car parts and lumber, experts said. Sales could wobble, they added, leading directly to job cuts.
Potential retaliatory tariffs slapped on U.S. exports could prove another cause of layoffs, the experts said, since U.S. firms dependent on selling products overseas risk weakened performance.
“It’s like Trump took a grenade and threw it into the economy, and he walked away to see what happens,” Rob Handfield, professor of operations and supply chain management at North Carolina State University, told ABC News.
The Trump administration did not immediately respond to ABC News’ request for comment.
In a series of social media posts over the weekend, Trump said the tariffs target Canada, Mexico and China for hosting the manufacture and transport of illicit drugs that end up in the United States. In a Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump urged the three countries to address his concerns, while acknowledging the tariffs may cause some financial hardship within the U.S.
“WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!). BUT WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID,” Trump wrote.
In recent days, some trade associations and labor unions voiced warnings about tariff-related job losses.
Jay Timmons, president and CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers, said small- and medium-sized firms in the sector employing millions of Americans risk “significant disruptions” as a result of potentially high energy prices and costly supply chain workarounds.
“Manufacturers will bear the brunt of these tariffs,” Timmons said, adding that the policies would put “American jobs at risk.”
Distilled Spirits Council, a trade association representing alcohol makers across North America, cautioned that tariffs would harm business in all three countries. “Maintaining fair and reciprocal duty-free access for all distilled spirits is crucial for supporting jobs and shared growth,” the group said.
The risks for U.S. workers are perhaps best demonstrated by the auto industry, which employs about 4 million people, experts said.
U.S. automakers hold deep ties to Canada and Mexico, since products often snake back and forth between the countries before a car reaches full assembly, Christopher Conlon, a professor of economics at New York University who studies trade, told ABC News.
Mexico and Canada make up the top two U.S. trading partners for both finished motor vehicles and car parts, according to a Cato Institute analysis of data from the U.S. International Trade Commission.
“The supply chains involve shipping parts back and forth over the border five times, six times, seven times. If every time a part crosses the Canadian border it gets taxed at 25%, that will add up really quickly,” Conlon said, noting the added costs could hike car prices by as much as $10,000 and, in turn, weaken sales.
“The companies will have to scale back production, and that will mean fewer shifts,” Conlon added.
The production slowdown may lead to job cuts at companies indirectly impacted by the tariffs, such as car dealerships and auto-part sellers, experts said. More than 550,000 workers at car dealerships representing international brands risk losing their jobs if the industry falters due to the tariffs, the American International Automobile Dealers Association told ABC News in a statement.
To be sure, employment may grow in some domestic industries protected by the tariffs, such as the steel and energy sectors, some experts said. Even those businesses, however, may contend with challenges if the tariffs limit consumer demand, they added.
Potential job gains in some sectors would not outweigh the losses in others, Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told ABC News.
“It’s very difficult to see a net positive of this in terms of employment for the U.S.,” Miller said.
(WASHINGTON) — Fresh inflation data set for release on Wednesday will provide an update on prices ahead of the holidays and help determine the outcome of an interest rate decision at the Federal Reserve slated for next week.
A monthslong slowdown of inflation came to an end when price increases accelerated in October, the most recent month for which data is available. The hot reading reversed some previous progress in lowering inflation and left price increases above the Fed’s target rate.
Economists expect consumer prices to have climbed 2.7% in November, which would amount to a slight uptick in price increases and mark two consecutive months of rising inflation.
The inflation gauge makes up the last piece of significant economic data before the Fed announces its next interest rate decision on Dec. 18. A finding of accelerated price hikes may give the Fed pause as it weighs interest rate cuts.
Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of more than 9% in June 2022, but price increases remain slightly above the target rate of 2%.
In recent months, the Fed has cut its benchmark rate three quarters of a percentage point, dialing back its yearslong fight against inflation and delivering relief for borrowers saddled with high costs.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point at its meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
Over time, rate cuts ease the burden on borrowers for everything from home mortgages to credit cards to cars, making it cheaper to get a loan or refinance one. The cuts also boost company valuations, potentially helping fuel returns for stockholders.
In theory, the policy eases access to funds, stimulates economic activity and boosts demand. But the promise of bolstered consumer strength risks increased prices.
Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell voiced optimism about the prospects for achieving a “soft landing,” in which the U.S. averts a recession while inflation returns to normal.
“We continue to be confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and labor market can be maintained with inflation moving sustainably down to 2%,” Powell said.
The trajectory of inflation could shift in the coming months. Some economists expect President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals of heightened tariffs and the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants to raise consumer prices.
When asked about the Fed’s potential response to Trump’s policies, Powell said the central bank would make its rate decisions based on how any policy changes impact the economy.
“In the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions,” Powell said. “We don’t know what the timing and substance of any policy changes will be. We therefore don’t know what the effects on the economy will be.”
“We don’t guess, we don’t speculate and we don’t assume,” Powell added.
(NEW YORK) — Shares of Boeing fell in early trading on Monday, one day after a Boeing model 737-800 was involved in the Jeju Air plane crash in South Korea that killed scores of passengers.
The stock price dropped more than 4% at the open of trading on Monday morning. The slide came hours after South Korea’s transportation ministry announced it would investigate the crash and conduct a full inspection of all Boeing 737-800 aircraft in use in South Korea.
All but two of the 181 people on board died Sunday in what authorities said was the deadliest plane crash in South Korea in decades.
The only survivors, a man and a woman, were among the six crew members onboard the Jeju Air Boeing 737-800 when it skidded along a runway, crashed into a wall and burst into flames on Sunday morning, officials said.
In a statement posted on X on Sunday, Boeing said the company had established communication with Jeju Air about the incident.
“We are in contact with Jeju Air regarding flight 2216 and stand ready to support them,” Boeing said. “We extend our deepest condolences to the families who lost loved ones, and our thoughts remain with the passengers and crew.”
Boeing did not immediately respond to ABC News’ request for comment.
Jeju Air said it would not suspend operations of its 737-800 aircraft.
“There are no plans to suspend operations, but they will examine those parts once more and check them thoroughly during the inspection process,” said Song Kyung-hoon, head of Jeju Air’s Management Support Division.
As the aircraft approached South Korea’s Muan International Airport at 8:54 a.m. local time, the control tower gave it permission to land on a south-to-north runway, according to an official timeline by the Korean Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport.
Three minutes later, the flight control tower issued a warning of a possible bird strike, the transport ministry said. About two minutes after that warning, a pilot sent a distress signal, saying, “Mayday, mayday, mayday, bird strike, bird strike, going around,” the ministry said.
An official cause of the crash is under investigation by South Korea’s Aviation and Railway Accident Investigation Board.
The fatal crash and ensuing stock slide mark the latest setback for Boeing, which sought to put a series of scandals behind it last month when it struck a deal with a union representing thousands of West Coast factory workers, who had undertaken a seven-week strike.
The labor action began days after Boeing’s troubled Starliner spacecraft returned to Earth without its crew due to mechanical issues, and months after a door plug blew out of the company’s 737 Max 9 aircraft mid-flight, which itself happened five years after Boeing’s 737 Max aircraft were first grounded worldwide following a pair of tragic crashes.
The losses for Boeing on Monday coincided with a broader decline in the stock market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 700 points in early trading, dropping the index about 1.5%.
The S&P 500 slid 1.5% in early trading on Monday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq also declined 1.5%.
ABC News’ Joohee Cho and Kevin Shalvey contributed to this report.
