2024 election updates: Trump heads to Pennsylvania with boost in new Sun Belt poll
(WASHINGTON) — With about six weeks until Election Day, former President Donald Trump is back on the campaign trail with stops in battleground Pennsylvania on Monday.
Vice President Kamala Harris is in Washington to meet with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Here’s how the news is developing:
Trump slightly leads in Arizona, about even in North Carolina: Polls
A set of New York Times/Siena College polls found Trump slightly leads Harris in Arizona and they are about evenly matched in North Carolina.
Among likely voters in Arizona, Trump leads Harris 50% to 45% in a head-to-head matchup. In a six-way matchup with other candidates, Trump still leads Harris 48% to 43%.
In North Carolina, Trump also leads Harris among likely voters 49% to 47%. He also leads by 2 percentage points in a six-way matchup. The lead, however, is within the poll’s margin of error.
Arizona and North Carolina are considered crucial battlegrounds this election, along with Georgia. According to 538’s polling average, Trump is ahead slightly in each of the three Sun Belt states.
(WASHINGTON) — When President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, some Democrats feared the party would lose his “Scranton Joe” appeal to Rust Belt voters. But early signs indicate Vice President Kamala Harris, the likeliest candidate to replace him, remains competitive in the key region.
Biden had particularly strong appeal to older voters and white voters without a college degree during his campaign, helping keep hopes alive of drawing an inside straight to reelection through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — three “blue wall” states that are at the heart of any Democrats’ path to victory — where those voters hold immense sway. Replacing him atop the ticket, the conventional wisdom went, threatened that hold those three key states along with them.
Harris’ coalition appears to be that of a more traditional candidate. She has brought young and racially diverse voters back into the fold more than Biden, early polls show, possibly helping her offset any drop-off with other demographics — a decrease that has not emerged substantially in those surveys.
“It’s not going to be her base of voters, but she’s not going to get crushed, and that’s all that matters,” Jim Ananich, the former Democratic leader in the Michigan state Senate, said of older, white voters. “The new rising electorate, the Black and brown community, women, younger voters, she’ll make up for it. And I’m saying this is perceived. I don’t even know if it’s a real deficit.”
“I’m not as worried about it as others may or may not be,” he added. “I can’t tell you today we’re going to win, but I don’t feel like we’re going to lose. I think the election’s up in the air.”
Fox News polls released last week showed Harris and Trump statistically tied in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, improvements from Biden’s standing in the three states.
Fox News’ Michigan poll from April showed Biden with 50% support among voters over 65 years old and 31% support among white voters without a college degree. This month, those numbers were 45% and 34%, respectively. Biden took 34% support among men and 31% among white men, with Harris boosting those numbers to 36% and 36%, respectively. Each also got 26% support among self-identified independents.
In Pennsylvania, Biden had 46% support from senior voters and 33% support from white voters without a college degree. Harris matched him among voters 65 years old and up and saw support from white voters without a degree jump to 41% since April. Biden took 40% support among men and 36% support among white men, numbers that jumped to 45% and 42% for Harris, respectively. Biden took 28% support among self-identified independents, a figure that rose to 30% for Harris.
And in Wisconsin, Biden had 49% support from senior voters and 33% support from white voters without a college degree. Those numbers rose to 51% and 40% for Harris this month, respectively. Biden took 40% support among men and 39% support among white men, while Harris took 40% and 41% support, respectively. Independent support for the Democratic ticket rose from 30% for Biden to 35% for Harris.
In all three states, Harris also improved upon Biden’s standings with younger and non-white voters.
Taken together, the early data rebuffs the idea of a drop for Harris in a critical region that carried Trump to victory in 2016 and helped spur his loss four years later.
“I’m not going to tell you, ‘oh, everything’s going to be amazing,’ no. But I also don’t know that I accept the premise that there’s a real problem there,” said J.J. Balaban, a Pennsylvania Democratic strategist.
Wisconsin Democratic strategist Ben Nuckels said some are overhyping that there is a problem.
“Honestly, I don’t know what that speculation is. She has had a tremendous momentum, she’s raising tons of money. I think that there’s maybe some beltway politicos that are making some assumptions that perhaps they shouldn’t,” Nuckels said.
Harris so far is leaving nothing to chance.
One of her first rallies after Biden dropped out was in Milwaukee, and she is anticipated to blitz several swing states next week, likely including in the upper Midwest. Her potential running mate could hail from a key Rust Belt state. And more reinforcements are on the way.
“We already have 600 staff on the ground in the blue wall, and we’re adding another 150 to that region in the first two weeks of August,” Dan Kannien, the Harris campaign’s battleground states director, told reporters Monday.
“The vice president is strong in both the blue wall and in the Sun Belt and we are running hard in both,” he added, referencing the reach of states from Arizona and Nevada to Georgia and North Carolina, where Harris is anticipated to perform better than Biden given the more diverse electorate there.
Republicans still aren’t sold.
Beyond the poll numbers, GOP strategists told ABC News that Biden’s historic appeal in the upper Midwest would be tough to beat. A son of Scranton, Pennsylvania, Biden offered blue collar bona fides, they said, that Harris, who cut her teeth in San Francisco liberal politics, could face headwinds trying to match.
“Joe Biden’s background was tailor made for the Rust Belt, given his generation and his issue cluster and where he was from, so it’d be hard to replace him with anyone who has more of a potential for Rust Belt voters,” said veteran Pennsylvania GOP strategist Chris Nicholas. “It’d be hard to find a Democrat with more natural appeal to the Rust Belt states.”
Republicans also speculated that Harris could be enjoying a sugar high as the result of her whirlwind ascent to the top of Democrats’ ticket. But Harris and Trump are engaged in a pitched race to define her, the outcome of which could prove determinative to the vice president’s standing.
“She certainly has enthusiasm here. But I think we need to get past the shiny-new-penny stage and get into hardball politics, what her record says, what the Trump attacks will be,” said Wisconsin GOP strategist Brandon Scholz. “I don’t think you’ve even seen that scratch the surface.”
And there are still issues that offer Trump fertile ground for attacks.
Chief among them is inflation, which Trump had been hammering away on before Biden dropped out and is anticipated to continue to focus on with Harris as his opponent. Former Rep. Mike Bishop, R-Mich., said that line of attack could prove particularly effective with the kinds of blue-collar workers who dominate the Rust Belt amid stubbornly high frustrations over inflation.
“We do have a very blue-collar populace here,” Bishop said. “She’s going to have to cater to them and prove to them why their lives are better over the past four years and try to put together some kind of plan to show that she can continue that process going forward.”
“Most people do consider their pocketbook and their family and their family budget, I think absolutely that’s an important issue. I don’t know how you can get past that,” he added.
Still, Democrats are essentially jubilant over Harris’ chances. Biden’s chances of reelection were widely perceived to have taken a near-fatal hit after his cataclysmic debate last month, and having a candidate to just make the race competitive again has Democrats feeling the wind at their backs.
“On the ground, things feel great … the momentum has completely flipped,” Nuckels said.
“All the polling showed [Biden] was down, all of it,” he added. “It was going to be a very, very difficult race, and something major needed to happen in order for him to gain that momentum back. But it was not headed in the right direction.”
(WASHINGTON) — A bill aimed at expanding the child tax credit for millions of families and implementing business tax breaks failed to progress through the Senate during a key test vote Thursday afternoon.
The legislation failed to go forward by a vote of 48-44. It would have needed 60 to advance.
For the most part, Democrats voted in favor of the legislation and most Republicans voted against it. But it wasn’t a clean party line vote.
Sens. Joe Manchin and Bernie Sanders, both independents who caucus with Democrats, voted against the legislation. Republican Sens. Rick Scott, Josh Hawley and Markwayne Mullin voted for it.
Majority Leader Chuck Schume changed his vote from a yes to a no so that he could call the vote up at a later time.
In remarks before the vote, Schumer, who led the charge in forcing a vote on the doomed-to-fail legislation Thursday, dared Republicans to challenge the popular provisions geared at putting more money in the pockets of low- and middle-income families.
“The Senate has a chance to move forward on the tax relief for American Families and Workers Act. Democrats are ready to vote yes, to advance bipartisan legislation today. The question is will Senate Republicans join us to give Americans a tax break? Or will they stand in the way the tax bill that passed the House with an overwhelming vote…?” Schumer said.
Senate Republicans opposed its funding mechanism and alleged that Democrats brought up the bill for consideration for purely political purposes.
The bill had bipartisan support and passed the House overwhelmingly 357-70.
“Today as the Senate prepares to leave town for the August state work period, the Democratic leader has decided to squeeze out one more vote that isn’t ready for primetime,” Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said on the Senate floor before the vote. “Today’s vote doesn’t seem to be intended to produce a legislative outcome.”
Schumer largely conceded that the vote was about putting Republicans on the record. It’s a move Democrats have utilized a number of times in the last few months, forcing Republicans to take votes on a number of provisions on things such as immigration and abortion leading up to the November election.
“This should be bipartisan. It passed in a bipartisan vote in the House, and I hope Republicans here in the Senate will join us,” Schumer said. “But I have also always been clear that Democrats will not shy away from moving forward on important issues when necessary to give the American people a chance to see where their elected representatives stand.”
Thursday’s vote came as vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance has been facing intense scrutiny for comments he has made about people without children in America, and after Vance suggested during a Sunday interview with Fox News that presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris opposed the child tax credit.
“I think a lot of parents and a lot of non-parents look at our public policy over the last four years and ask, ‘How did we get to this place? How did we get to a place where Kamala Harris is calling for an end to the child tax credit?” Vance said on Fox.
Schumer called the assertion that Democrats oppose the credit “plain old nonsense” when announcing that the Senate would vote on the House-backed bill this week.
Vance, Trump’s running mate, did not vote on the bill. He has not been on Capitol Hill since Trump picked him as his running mate. Vance visited the southern border in Arizona on Thursday morning.
Republicans said they had a number of reasons for rejecting this proposal.
Many say they opposed the way the bill is funded. But rejecting this bill also allows debate about tax policy to continue into 2025, when Republicans hope they may have regained control of the Senate or the White House.
“It needs to go back in the oven and come out with our tax reform next year,” Sen. Thom Tillis said.
ABC News’ Lauren Peller contributed to this report.
(CHICAGO) — Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton electrified the crowd on the opening night of the Democratic National Convention as she portrayed Vice President Kamala Harris as someone who could break barriers and reach a pinnacle that eluded her throughout her own political career.
“Together, we’ve put a lot of cracks in the highest, hardest glass ceiling,” Clinton said in her rousing remarks after receiving a warm welcome from the crowd at the United Center in Chicago. “And tonight so close to breaking through once and for all.”
Harris will be the second woman in history to accept a major party’s nomination for president following Clinton, whose monumental 2016 run made history but ended with a general election loss to Donald Trump.
Clinton began her remarks by thanking President Joe Biden for his leadership and for returning decency to the White House. But she quickly switched gears to lay out the historic progress that’s led to this moment, recalling Shirley Chisholm’s presidential run and Geraldine Ferraro being the first woman to be nominated as vice president.
“And then, there was 2016 when it was the honor of my life to accept our party’s nomination for president,” Clinton said of her own experience. “And nearly 66 million Americans voted for a future where there are no ceilings on our dreams. And afterwards, we refused to give up on America. Millions marched. Many ran for office. We kept our eyes on the future.”
“Well, my friends, the future is here,” she said to cheers.
Clinton said she wished her mother and Harris’ mother could see them, and believed they would tell them to “keep going.” The audience then echoed back shouts of, “Keep going!”
Comparisons of Clinton and Harris’ campaigns have begun to emerge as Harris ramped up her operation in the weeks after Biden’s decision to step aside.
Several Democrats told ABC News they are feeling buoyed by Harris’ candidacy and how she’s reenergized the party, but are worried about being overconfident against Trump after what transpired with Clinton eight years ago.
Clinton, who first ran for president in 2008 but lost in the primary race to Barack Obama, was successful in 2016 in clinching the nomination after defeating independent Sen. Bernie Sanders.
A bitter, ugly general election contest ensued between Trump and Clinton. Trump took to calling Clinton “Crooked Hillary” and the “devil.” Clinton called half of Trump’s supporters a “basket of deplorables,” which critics called a mistake that alienated some voters.
A Trump fundraising email sent out Monday hours ahead of Clinton’s DNC remarks highlighted her past “deplorables” comment and claimed she was “about to unleash hell on MAGA.”
In her speech, Clinton took a shot at Trump for being convicted on 34 felony counts (a verdict he’s vowed to appeal) saying he “made his own kind of history” and “fell asleep at his own trial.”
After those comments, the crowd broke into chants of “Lock him up!” to which Clinton smiled and nodded her head. Trump called for Clinton to be imprisoned multiple times in the 2016 campaign, with “Lock her up!” calls frequently emerging at his rallies.
Polls in 2016 had shown Clinton ahead leading up to Election Day, but when results came in they showed Trump leading a stunning upset by grabbing several key battleground states. Clinton conceded the next morning.
Clinton referenced polls in her speech, noting that while Harris has been polling better against Trump than Biden, Democrats can’t take their foot of the gas.
“No matter what the polls say, we can’t let up,” she said. “We can’t get driven down crazy conspiracy rabbit holes. We have to fight for the truth. We have to fight for Kamala as she will fight for us. Because you know what? It still takes a village to raise a family, heal a country and win a campaign.”
Clinton recounted her loss in greater detail and what went wrong with her campaign in her 2017 memoir What Happened. She wrote that she bore responsibility ultimately for the loss to Trump but described it being difficult to overcome stereotypes. She also directed some blame at former FBI director James Comey for reopening the investigation into her private email server 11 days before the election.
After the 2016 election, Clinton maintained a relatively low profile until 2020 when she campaigned for Biden after his success in the Democratic primaries.
Clinton spoke at the 2020 Democratic National Convention, saying she wish Trump had been a “better president” and praised Biden’s character and his choice of Harris to be his running mate. She said they were a team who could “pull our nation back from the brink and build back better.”
More recently, she penned a New York Times op-ed offering Biden advice on how to debate Trump before the June CNN showdown. Clinton called Trump a bully who “stalked” her on the debate stage in 2016 and urged Biden to be “direct and forceful.”
After Biden dropped out of the race, in large part because his poor debate performance ignited Democratic fears about his age, Clinton wrote another Times op-ed offering a full-throated endorsement of Harris.
Clinton said that Harris can defeat Trump but warned she will face similar prejudices — a theme she continued in her DNC speech.
“On her first day in court, Kamala said five words that still guide her. Kamala Harris for the people,” Clinton said, referencing Harris’ record as a prosecutor.
“That is something that Donald Trump will never understand,” Clinton went on. “So, it is no surprise, is it, that he is lying about Kamala’s record. He’s mocking her name and her laugh. Sounds familiar. But we have him on the run now.”
Describing Harris as someone who would “always have our backs,” Clinton praised the vice president for her work on reproductive rights, support for military service members and commitment to the rule of law.
At times, some in the crowd appeared emotional as she spoke.
“I want my grandchildren and their grandchildren to know I was here at this moment, that we were here, and that we were with Kamala Harris every step of the way,” Clinton said. “This is our time, America. This is when we stand up. This is when we break through. The future is here. It’s in our grasp. Let’s go win it.”ble.”