Trump threatens government shutdown unless debt limit demand met, blames Biden if it happens
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(WASHINGTON) — President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday took credit for killing the House Republican-proposed government funding bill, telling ABC News there will be a government shutdown unless Congress eliminates or extends the limit on government borrowing.
“We’re not going to fall into the debt ceiling quicksand,” Trump said in an exclusive phone interview. “There won’t be anything approved unless the debt ceiling is done with.”
Trump said he is concerned that if government borrowing reaches the limit set by the debt ceiling, it could lead to an economic depression. Under current law, the federal government would hit its borrowing limit sometime in the spring of 2025, during the first months of the second Trump presidency. Trump said he wants it taken care of now, while Joe Biden is president.
“By doing what I’m doing, I put it into the Biden administration,” Trump said. “In this administration, not in my administration.”
“The interesting thing is, [the debt ceiling] possibly means nothing, or it means [the] depression of 1929,” Trump added. “Nobody really knows. It means nothing, but psychologically it may mean a lot, right? In other words, it doesn’t have a real meaning other than you’ve violated something. And that may be just, one day, half a story, or it may lead to the depression of 1929 and nobody wants to take the chance, except the Democrats.”
Congress must pass a funding bill by Friday night to avoid a shutdown of major federal services.
Trump said he is more concerned about the debt ceiling, which was not part of the spending bill rejected by the House on Wednesday after Trump and ally Elon Musk weighed in, than he is in the level of government spending.
“I don’t mind the spending for the farmers and for disaster relief from North Carolina, etc., but that’s all,” he said, referring to $100 billion in disaster relief aid and $10 billion in assistance to farmers.
When asked about concerns about a potential shutdown, the president-elect reiterated there will be a shutdown if the debt ceiling isn’t addressed, and claimed it would be Biden’s fault.
“Shutdowns only inure to the person who’s president,” Trump said. “That’s what I tried to teach [former House Speaker] Kevin McCarthy, but I obviously didn’t do a very good job [with] a shutdown because he kept giving them extensions into my territory, a shutdown only hurts or inures to the person who happens to be president.”
As for House Speaker Mike Johnson’s fate, Trump said, “If he’s strong, he’ll survive it. If he’s strong, he will survive it.”
(WASHINGTON) — Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign on Wednesday announced that following a “strong” vice-presidential debate performance from running mate Gov. Tim Walz Tuesday night, he’ll embark on a weeklong travel and media blitz — including rallies, direct voter engagement events, fundraisers and two national TV interviews — that begins in battleground Pennsylvania on Wednesday.
“Walz will participate in more media interviews and engagements to reach key demographics and target voters that the campaign is working to win, combining national, battleground state, and specialty media interviews with high-impact digital engagements including with sports content creators and podcasts,” the campaign said.
Walz will also make his late-night TV debut as Harris’ running mate and be a guest on a “top pop culture podcast” during an upcoming swing on the West Coast, the campaign said — though specific details have not yet been disclosed.
Walz’s interactions with national media have been rare since he hit the campaign trail, with his only national interviews being the ABC News and MSNBC post-presidential debate interviews on Sept. 10 and the joint sit-down interview with Harris on CNN on Aug. 29.
Walz is kicking off the swing with a central Pennsylvania bus tour on Wednesday with Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman — a trip meant to be done with Harris, however her schedule shifted to focus on Hurricane Helene. On Wednesday, Harris visits Georgia to survey the storm damage, give updates on the government response and hear from local officials on the ground.
Walz’s Pennsylvania bus tour includes stops in Harrisburg and Reading before Fetterman joins him for a campaign rally in York.
Pennsylvania is a critical battleground state where both campaigns will focus their time in the remaining weeks until Election Day. Pennsylvania went for former President Donald Trump by over 44,000 votes in 2016 before President Joe Biden took it back by over 80,000 votes in 2020.
On Saturday, Walz will be fundraising, starting with an Ohio swing in Cleveland and Cincinnati. He’ll then travel to the West Coast to fundraise, with stops in California and Washington.
According to the campaign, Walz will also continue his campaigning with stops in the Sun Belt. He will make another visit to Reno, Nevada, to hold a campaign rally that was originally postponed in light of the Davis wildfires in September. He then goes to Arizona for a series of political events to kick off the start of early voting in the state.
“With just over 30 days until the election, the Harris-Walz ticket is entering the final stretch of the campaign aggressively, with a robust travel and media schedule to ensure that every American voter knows what’s on the line in November,” the campaign said.
(WASHINGTON) — ABC projects that Democrat Adam Gray will win the race for California’s 13th Congressional District, unseating incumbent Republican John Duarte and flipping the final unresolved seat in the 2024 election.
With all 435 House races projected, ABC News estimates Republicans will hold 220 seats and Democrats 215 in the 119th Congress.
But it’s not clear how vacancies — or, illness or other absences — will impact the day-to-day division of power when the House convenes on Jan. 3.
President-elect Donald Trump initially tapped three House Republicans for positions in his upcoming administration: Florida Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz, and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik. Gaetz has already resigned from Congress and withdrew last month from consideration to serve as President-elect Donald Trump’s attorney general. And though he won reelection to his seat last month, he said he won’t serve another term.
Republicans could have a 217-215 majority while their seats are vacant — the narrowest GOP majority in history — and special elections to fill those seats can take months to complete.
In this case, any single Republican can hold Johnson hostage: Losing just one Republican on a vote would result in a 216-216 tie.
The speaker acknowledged the thin majority, which could pose a challenge in passing Trump’s agenda.
“Well, just like we do every day here, we’ve developed an expertise in that. We know how to work with a small majority. That’s our custom now,” Johnson said. “So, yes — do the math. We can, we have nothing to spare. But all of our members know that we talked about that today, as we do constantly, that this is a team effort that we’ve got to all row in the same direction.”
But several elderly Democrats have missed votes recently, which could give Republicans a little more breathing room next year.
In California’s 13th District, Duarte conceded to Gray on Tuesday, according to the Turlock Journal.
“I’m a citizen legislator, and I didn’t plan on being in Congress forever,” Duarte told the newspaper. “But whenever I think I can make a difference, I’ll consider public service in different forms, including running for Congress again.”
Gray released a victory statement on X Tuesday evening, extending his gratitude and saying the “final results confirm this district is ready for independent and accountable leadership that always puts the Valley’s people ahead of partisan politics.”
-ABC News’ Marilyn Heck and Benjamin Siegel contributed to this report.
(WASHINGTON) — As Election Day nears, tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots throughout the country.
Whether through mail-in ballots or early in-person polling stations, more than 68 million Americans, roughly 43% of the 2020 turnout, had voted against standing in line on Election Day as of Friday afternoon, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
Academic experts, reporters and pundits have been going through basic and limited data gleaned from the early voting numbers, trying to get clues about next week’s outcome.
That picture, however, is not exactly black and white, according to Charles Stewart, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s election data science lab.
“It’s like talking about the weather,” he said. “The candidates, the press, etcetera — really are trying to draw conclusions just on the face value of the data, but there really isn’t a lot there to say who is winning.”
That said, Stewart said the early voting data does provide some insights when it comes to this year’s voting patterns and overall turnout — indicators that could help explain how the election turns out.
A flip in the ways people early vote
Voting trends have shown that more people have been choosing to cast their ballots before Election Day, and this has increased in numbers over the last 30 years, but 2020 turned out to be a major outlier, according to Stewart.
In the last presidential election, 69% of the 158 million total votes were cast before Election Day either through the mail, which included mail ballots dropped off in person, or at early voting poll sites, according to data from MIT.
Some 43% of the 2020 early votes came from mail ballots, according to the data.
Stewart said the COVID-19 pandemic forced many voters, who were already heavily engaged and wanted to be safe, to opt into using mail ballots or smaller voting lines if available.
“There was a speculation of what would happen with the shift once the pandemic was over,” he said.
However, in this year’s early voting there’s been a drop in voters choosing mail-in voting, Stewart said.
“The main trend I’m seeing is that the interest of voting by mail has shifted to voting in-person,” Stewart said.
He noted that shift is apparent in Georgia, which has seen record early voting numbers, with over 3.8 million ballots cast as of Friday. Roughly 92% of those were cast at in-person polling places and the rest via mail, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.
Stewart said some states, including swing states Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, only offer early voting through in-person absentee options. Under this option, a voter must request an absentee ballot, fill it out, and then deposit it in either a ballot box or at a designated location, and they are counted as a mail ballot voter.
Some voters may not have the time or energy to go through those extra steps to cast their ballots early, and are likely going to vote in-person Stewart said.
“If you have to vote early in person you have to figure out where that precinct is but you have to find out which is closer to your house or errands. With voting by mail, you have to take the effort to apply, to fill it out and return it and hope that the mail is delivered on time,” he said. “With Election Day voting you likely have a polling site that is much closer to you.”
Early-voting method preference hasn’t the only thing that’s seen a flip, according to Stewart.
Partisan numbers do not give any indication of outcome
Stewart said historical trends show that the majority of early voters made their decisions a long time ago and are likely politically active.
This year’s data shows that to be the case, he said, bit noted a major change in partisan turnout in several battleground states, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
Registered Republicans have seen a higher early voting turnout in battlegrounds Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina in this election compared to 2024 as of Friday, according to the data.
Typically, Democrats have had an advantage in early voting. However, Trump has pushed his supporters to cast their vote earlier and that appears to have an impact, Stewart said.
While Republican officials have been touting these higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart warned there is more nuance to the data.
He noted it shows, so far, that a large number of the registered Republicans who cast their votes eary came from people who voted on Election Day in 2020 and were not new voters.
Stewart said this would mean there would be fewer Republican voters casting their ballots on Election Day and thus their votes may not be reported until much later on election night or even for days afterward.
In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic tallies rise throughout the election night and into the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.
That mirage and “blue wave” could be muted this time around, Stewart said.
“Whatever the blue shift is, there will probably be less of a steep slope to it,” he said.
What do gender, race say about the early vote
Democrats have been touting the gender gap as a factor in their favor in the early voting numbers, as over 54% of women have cast their vote as of Friday, according to the University of Florida data.
Stewart said that assumption is not noteworthy.
Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, going as far back as 1980, according to the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.
Stewart said this is also true of early voters.
“It’s not always obvious to the public that there’s always been a gender gap,” he said.In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic tallies rise throughout the election night and into the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.
That mirage and “blue wave” could be muted this time around, Stewart said.
“Whatever the blue shift is, there will probably be less of a steep slope to it,” he said.
What do gender, race say about the early vote
Democrats have been touting the gender gap as a factor in their favor in the early voting numbers, as over 54% of women have cast their vote as of Friday, according to the University of Florida data.
Stewart said that assumption is not noteworthy.
Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, going as far back as 1980, according to the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.
Stewart said this is also true of early voters.
“It’s not always obvious to the public that there’s always been a gender gap,” he said.
When it comes to race, white voters are more likely to cast their votes by mail than Black voters, according to the MIT data.
Stewart said this stems from traditions going back to the civil rights movement.
“African Americans fought and sometimes died for being able to march into the voting booth. That’s been instilled in the community,” he said.
This practice is one factor in large numbers of Black voters heading to in-person early voting poll sites in states such as Georgia and South Carolina, where that option is available.
Churches, civil rights groups and other organizations with ties to the Black community have been pushing voters to head to the early voting polls, using campaigns such as “souls to the polls” so that they can avoid any complications on Election Day.
Groups in Georgia in particular have stressed voting early to circumvent some of the restrictive voting laws that have been put in place since the 2020 election.
As of Friday evening, more than 1 million Black voters have cast their ballots, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.
“The mobilization efforts have clearly proven effective,” Stewart said.
Signs point to high turnout
Stewart said the one definite conclusion that can be drawn from the early voting data is that this year’s overall turnout will be “on par” with 2020’s, which was the highest voter turnout by percentage in over 100 years.
“It could be the high 160 (million),” he estimated.
Stewart said that the early-voting trends have shown that voters under 25 have not yet voted and they will typically line up on Election Day.
“Those populations are really heavily represented on Election Day,” he said.
Stewart reiterated that with the pandemic over, a good number of the 2020 early voters will likely shift back to Election Day voting, especially if it presents itself as the easier option for their locations and schedules.
As for the future, Steward predicted that the rise in Republican voters voting early will continue in future cycles along with the overall trend of the electorate opting for early voting.
“The data is showing this organic increase in early voting even after the pandemic,” he said. “Voters want more options, and they will seriously consider voting if they have more choices.”
