Tariffs, Ukraine and Gaza loom over Trump’s ‘American Dream’ address

Tariffs, Ukraine and Gaza loom over Trump’s ‘American Dream’ address
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(WASHINGTON) — The theme of President Donald Trump’s high-profile address to Congress and the nation on Tuesday night is “Renewal of the American Dream,” but he’s also expected to remark on what his second-term agenda may mean for the rest of the world.

According to a White House official, the president will lay out his vision for “peace around the globe.”

“He’s going to dive into foreign policy, talk about his intention to end the war in Ukraine, talk about his plan to bring all of the hostages out of Gaza home,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in an interview on Tuesday.

But the president’s speech comes at a particularly contentious time. The aftermath of his heated Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy still hangs over Washington, and there are signs that both Israel and Hamas may be preparing to resume fighting as the future of the Gaza ceasefire deal appears to be in jeopardy.

And as the Trump administration levies new tariffs against adversaries and allies alike after turning U.S. foreign policy on its head during his first six weeks back in office, the international community will be listening closely as fellow work leaders try to divine what the next four years may have in store.

Here are some things to watch for:

Will Trump mend his rocky relationship with Ukraine?

After Trump expelled Zelenskyy from the White House and declared the Ukrainian leader was “not ready for peace,” his administration paused the pipeline of U.S. military assistance to the country — further ramping up pressure on Kyiv.

Zelenskyy initially declined to apologize to Trump, but in an address on Tuesday, he called the meeting “regrettable,” adding, “It is time to make things right.”

As part of that, he proposed a partial ceasefire with Russia that he said Ukraine would be willing to implement immediately.

“Then we want to move very fast through all next stages and to work with the U.S. to agree a strong final deal,” he declared.

But whether this is enough to get back in the president’s good graces remains to be seen.

State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said later on Tuesday there is still “an open door” for Zelenskyy, while applauding Trump.

“This is the end result of what happens when you make it clear to someone that there is one way to move forward,” she said.

A positive sign for Zelenskyy emerged Tuesday afternoon, when two sources briefed on discussions inside the White House told ABC News that the U.S. and Ukraine could sign the mineral deal that was supposed to be inked on Friday as soon as Tuesday.

One source said Trump indicated he would like to sign the deal before the speech but cautioned nothing is final.

But if Zelenskyy’s comments aren’t ultimately enough for the president, it’s possible he could go even further — potentially by attempting to cut off Ukraine from shipments of new weapons from American arm suppliers that were already paid for with money given to Kyiv by the Biden administration or by halting intelligence-sharing with the country.

Others have said they feel like no matter what, the damage has already been done.

“By canceling military aid to Ukraine, Trump doesn’t make peace any closer. It’s not even a blackmailing but rather conscious pressure on Ukraine to capitulate to Russia’s demands, after which Trump can “declare peace,” said Mariia Zolkina, the head of regional security and conflict studies at Ukraine’s Democratic Initiatives Foundation think tank.

“[Trump] can’t make a good deal now and defines Ukraine as ‘guilty’ for this,” she added.

Can the fragile peace in the Middle East last?

After members of his incoming administration worked with members of the Biden administration to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza, Trump was able to reenter the White House with a major diplomatic win already under his belt.

Now, 44 days after that agreement went into effect, it seems to be at greater risk of falling apart than ever.

Israel revealed on Sunday that the U.S. had offered up another proposal to extend the first phase of the ceasefire deal, which would significantly speed up the release of hostages.

After Hamas rejected the plan, Israel cut off the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza, a move the Trump administration has backed but other key mediators, such as Egypt and Qatar, have decried as a violation of humanitarian law.

The State Department said on Monday that Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East, is planning to travel to the Middle East this week and that he would seek either to “work out a way to extend phase I or advance to phase II” of the Gaza ceasefire deal.

Trump’s address on Tuesday may offer clarity on what the president would actually like to see happen next in the peace process — beyond his outlandish plan to build what has called the “Riviera of the Middle East” in Gaza.

If the Israel-Hamas war doesn’t get airtime during Trump’s speech, that, too, could be telling about the president’s focus. But on Tuesday, Trump’s top diplomat, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in order to “underscore that the United States’ steadfast support for Israel is a top priority for President Trump,” according to the State Department.

How will Trump handle the tariffs trouble?

On the day of Trump’s address, the president’s long-threatened 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico went into effect, prompting both countries to vow to take retaliatory economic measures — and subsequently leading to the president promising to raise tariffs further.

At the same time, the U.S. introduced another 10% tariff on Chinese imports, and Beijing hit back with its own tariffs on U.S. agricultural products and other measures targeting American business interests.

The immediate impact of the multifront trade wars has been a blow to the U.S. stock market, which Trump often uses as a barometer of his own success.

Economists say U.S. consumers may feel the crunch from tariffs more acutely as time goes on, as retailers are expected to offset costs by raising prices.

Beyond inflating prices, Joshua P. Meltzer, a senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, argued the tariffs will also run counter to the Trump administration’s other economic aims.

“These tariffs will also harm the Trump administration’s goal of developing more secure supply chains and competing with China,” he said. “The tariffs are directly at odds with deeper economic integration across North America. In fact, China will benefit from a trade war across North America as it undercuts efforts to reshore supply chains away from China.”

Meltzer also said the move will hurt American credibility.

“They signal to the world that any international agreement with the U.S. is not worth all that much, raising difficult questions for all U.S. allies and trading partners about the value of trade agreements with the U.S.,” he said.

Trump’s address will provide a high-stakes opportunity for the president either to alleviate or exacerbate those concerns among U.S. trading partners.

ABC News’ Katherine Faulders and Rachel Scott as contributors.

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