Consumer attitudes worsen more than expected amid Trump’s tariffs: Survey
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(NEW YORK) — Consumer attitudes worsened in March as President Donald Trump’s tariffs set off a market rout and warnings of a possible recession, Conference Board survey data on Tuesday showed. Sentiment worsened more than economists expected.
The fresh data on consumer sentiment arrives a week before the onset of additional U.S. tariffs, indicating potential fear of further escalation in an ongoing global trade war.
Trump has repeatedly referred to April 2 as “liberation day,” saying a wide-ranging slate of reciprocal tariffs would rebalance U.S. trade relationships.
Trump’s plan for reciprocal tariffs next week, however, is expected to be more targeted and narrower than he previously vowed, though the plan remains under discussion, sources told ABC News on Monday. The administration is focused on trading partners who have major trade imbalances with the U.S., the sources said.
The news of a potentially softer approach to forthcoming tariffs rallied U.S. stocks on Monday, recovering some of the losses suffered earlier this month.
Consumer sentiment appears to align with dampening expectations at the Federal Reserve. Last week, the Fed predicted weaker year-end economic growth and higher inflation than it had in a December forecast.
Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., last Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell faulted tariffs for a “good part” of recent inflation.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
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(WASHINGTON) — President Donald Trump on Thursday said he will call for a lowering of U.S. interest rates, exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve despite a longstanding norm of political independence at the central bank.
During a virtual address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump demanded a drop in interest rates after calling for a reduction of oil prices set by a group of nations known as OPEC, which includes Saudi Arabia.
The prospect of low oil prices will enable the Fed to dial back its fight against inflation and bring down interest rates, Trump said.
“I’m going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil,” Trump said, later adding: “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately.”
The U.S. does not belong to OPEC, nor does the president play a role in the organization’s decisions regarding the price of oil sold by its member states.
The central bank is typically insulated from political interference, but several past presidents have sought to influence the Fed’s interest rate policy, including Trump, who repeatedly spoke out in favor of low interest rates during his first term.
On the campaign trail in August, Trump said a U.S. president should have a role in setting interest rates.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a defiant tone in November when posed with the question of whether he would resign from his position if asked by Trump.
“No,” Powell told reporters assembled at a press conference in Washington, D.C., blocks away from the White House.
When asked whether Trump could fire or demote him, Powell retorted: “Not permitted under the law.”
The prospect of a presidential role in setting interest rates drew opposition from both liberal and conservative economists who previously spoke to ABC News.
Critics of an expanded role for the president point to a bout of high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. Before the inflation took hold, President Richard Nixon had urged Fed Chair Arthur Burns to cut rates in the run-up to the 1972 presidential election.
Nixon’s advocacy is widely viewed as a contributing factor for lower-than-necessary interest rates that enabled inflation to get out of control, some economists noted.
“Allowing the president, any president, to help set monetary policy would eventually wreck the U.S. economy,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told ABC News.
The statements from Trump on Thursday came amid a monthslong reduction in interest rates.
The Fed cut interest rates by a total of a percentage point over the final months of 2024, delivering relief for borrowers long-saddled by a prolonged stretch of high interest rates.
The central bank, however, has indicated that it may cut rates less often in 2025 than it previously indicated. Inflation may prove more difficult to bring under control than policymakers thought just a few months ago, according to the bank.
The Fed is set to make its next decision on interest rates next week. The central bank is widely expected to maintain interest rates at the current level of between 4.25% and 4.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
Speaking on Thursday, Trump said a lowering of rates could bring about a reduction of interest rates worldwide.
“They should drop all over the world,” Trump said. “They should follow us.”
(NEW YORK) — President Donald Trump’s tariffs sent stocks tumbling in recent weeks, but the uncertainty helped propel a different asset viewed as a safe haven: gold.
The price of gold topped $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever last week, and the precious metal continued to hover around that mark in early trading on Monday.
Gold prices have soared 12% so far this year, while the S&P 500 has plummeted nearly 7%. Over that period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has tumbled 8.5%.
The rush toward gold makes financial sense, experts said. The asset offers investors a hedge against uncertain stock performance, since gold prices often display a degree of independence from movements in equities markets.
However, gold prices carry volatility of their own, some experts added, especially when buyers enter the market at a high point, risking losses instead of providing a security blanket. “Investors need to be careful,” Campbell Harvey, a professor at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business who studies commodity prices, told ABC News.
“At a time of heightened uncertainty, people look toward a safe haven – and gold is a perceived safe haven. But most people don’t realize that gold is volatile,” Harvey added.
The run-up in gold prices comes amid a market slump set off by an escalating global trade war.
Last week, the S&P 500 closed down more than 10% since its high in February, meaning the decline officially qualified as a market correction. It marked the index’s first correction since October 2023. At the same time, the Dow suffered its worst one-week drop-off since 2023.
“Right now, it’s a very anxious marketplace,” Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals, told ABC News. “That’s been a detriment for stock-market bulls and a boom for gold-market bulls.”
The flight to gold in moments of market crisis draws on decades of evidence, according to an analysis co-authored by Harvey in 2020. The price of gold moved higher during seven of the last nine major stock market selloffs stretching back to the late 1980s, researchers found.
“It’s a good track record, but it’s not a sure thing,” Harvey said. “Even though it went up seven out of nine of these drawdown periods, that doesn’t mean it will be seven out of nine in the next nine drawdowns.”
Last week, Paris-based financial firm BNP Paribas raised its forecast for gold prices, predicting the precious metal would exceed $3,100 an ounce. The company attributed the rosy outlook to economic uncertainty incited by Trump, but it warned such gains would likely fizzle out by the second half of this year.
“The gold market will price in or normalize Trump-driven trade risks, as it typically does with geopolitical risk,” BNP Paribas said in a report shared with ABC News. “Thus, if there is no ongoing escalation in trade tensions, gold prices will, in our view, struggle to maintain further upside momentum.”
Some experts who spoke to ABC News acknowledged the current price boom may eventually lose steam, but they still encouraged investors to add the precious metal to their portfolios as a means of offsetting the heightened risk of stocks.
“Gold offers diversification,” Trevor Yates, an analyst at investment firm Global X, told ABC News. “We see gold warranting a place in the portfolio.”
Investors who add gold for the sake of diversifying their portfolio, however, may want to add other assets alongside it, such as Treasury bonds or real estate, Harvey said.
“There are other safe assets besides gold,” Harvey said. “Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket.”
(WASHINGTON) — Economists say the uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and mass layoffs of government workers are starting to have a “chilling” effect on the U.S. economy.
“It’s a very difficult business environment, because they can’t plan for what their cost structure is going to be,” said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. “It’s adding to investment uncertainty, and some people are holding back on investments.”
Trump has so far imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports and says he’ll impose additional 10%, plus 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. Trump also says he will impose “reciprocal tariffs” that match the duties other countries levy on the U.S. That comes on top of tariff plans on cars, semiconductors, steel and aluminum. Even if Trump doesn’t ultimately move forward with all his tariff threats, the mere uncertainty has a chilling effect.
“If one of the inputs of your factory goes up by 25%, you might cut your production and say maybe we’ll have to fire some people,” Ziemba added.
Meanwhile, the Department of Government Efficiency’s slashing of the federal workforce across the country “also impacts consumption, because people are losing their jobs or are afraid of losing their jobs, so that might cause them to save more money,“ Ziemba said.
This week, The Conference Board’s consumer sentiment survey found that it registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021.
“Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a 10-month high,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for global indicators at The Conference Board.
“Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs,” Guichard said.
The Canada and Mexico tariffs would have a sweeping effect, since those are America’s two biggest trading partners. It could raise prices at the grocery store and the gas pump. Ziemba also noted that the cost of cars could increase by several thousand dollars.
“Every time a car part crosses the border, 25% tariffs could be very onerous,” Ziemba said. “We could see the cost of building a house go up quite substantially.”
