Dangerous wildfire smoke impacting more than a dozen states
Wildfire smoke from Canada shrouds the sun as it rises behind the Chrysler Building in New York City, July 17, 2026. (Gary Hershorn/ABC News)
(NEW YORK) — Dangerous wildfire smoke is impacting more than a dozen states on Saturday morning as air quality alerts span from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes to New England, south through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
More than 900 wildfires are burning across Canada, sending smoke into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, though a storm system moving through Saturday could help clear some of the haze.
The Midwest and Upper Great Lakes are expected to see poor air quality through the weekend as northwesterly winds push a plume of smoke into the region.
Meanwhile, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 3 of 5 risk for severe storms across parts of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor, including New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., could be affected. Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Buffalo are also expected to see strong storms.
The rounds of showers and storms will bring the threat of damaging winds, hail, a few tornadoes and chances for flash flooding in certain areas.
Flood watches are in effect for parts of the Northeast, including New York City and Philadelphia, through Saturday evening as heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding.
Elsewhere, monsoonal moisture is expected to extend from West Texas and southern New Mexico into central and northern Arizona and southern Utah, where daytime heating could trigger thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
A severe storm threat also extends into parts of Virginia and the Carolinas, where scattered storms could produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall as Charlotte, Raleigh and Virginia Beach are among the cities that could be affected.
Federal agents patrol the halls of immigration court at the Ted Weiss Federal Building on July 09, 2025 in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
(WINNFIELD, La.) — A Georgian immigrant who officials said died last week in Immigrant and Customs Enforcement custody is the 50th person to die in ICE detention during the second Trump administration.
Mamuka Artmeladze, 43, died on June 4 at the Winn Correctional Center in Louisiana, according to an agency notification sent to lawmakers.
In the notification, ICE officials said that Artmeladze was found unresponsive and was transported to a local medical center.
“Despite lifesaving efforts, at approximately 11:22 p.m., an onsite physician at Winn Parish Medical Center pronounced Artmeladze deceased,” ICE said. “His official cause of death is currently pending an autopsy.”
ICE said that Artmeladze was taken into custody in February in New Orleans during an operation “targeting commercial vehicle drivers who posed public safety risks.”
“ICE took him into custody after officials determined he had no lawful status to remain in the United States,” the agency said.
The increase in ICE deaths comes amid scrutiny from lawmakers and immigrant advocates about the conditions at detention centers during the Trump administration’s ongoing immigration crackdown.
According to an ABC News analysis of Immigration and Customs Enforcement data and the number of detainee deaths provided to Congress from ICE, the first 14 months of the second Trump administration represent the most deadly period for the federal detention system in recent years — with the exception of 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic contributed to detention deaths.
Last week, ICE ended a policy that required the agency to report the deaths of former detainees that occurred within 30 days of their release from federal custody.
The policy, issued during the Biden administration, directed the agency to review and report all detainee fatalities, including those that occurred up to a month following release.
A fire killed at least 30 horses at a barn on Nelson Avenue used by trainers at the nearby harness track, June 16, 2026, in Saratoga, NY. (Jim Franco/Albany Times Union via Getty Images)
(SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y.) — Seventeen horses died after a fire broke out in a barn in Saratoga Springs, New York — a city famous for its rich equestrian heritage.
The Saratoga Springs Fire Department responded to a structure fire at the Saratoga Casino Hotel harness racing facility early Tuesday, officials said.
When firefighters arrived, the barn was “heavily” engulfed in flames, the department said in a statement. They were able to contain the fire and prevent it from spreading to adjacent buildings, but the majority of the horses died as a result of the fire.
After the fire broke out around 2:30 a.m., security personnel from both Saratoga Casino Hotel and the nearby Saratoga Racecourse — along with emergency responders — acted quickly to evacuate horses from neighboring barns and secure the surrounding area, according to the Saratoga Harness Horseperson’s Association. About 350 horses are typically housed in the backstretch, the association said.
Seventeen horses being housed within the barn died, located in the backstretch area of the harness racetrack, according to the association. There were a total of 18 horses in the barn, the association noted.
The horses belonged to two trainers who stabled their horses in the barn. Trainer Robyn Mangiardi lost 11 horses, while trainer Timothy Benson lost six horses, the association said.
“The loss suffered today is heartbreaking for our racing community,” Sam Gerrity, CEO of Saratoga Casino Hotel, said in a statement. “Our thoughts remain with Robyn, Tim, their teams, the horse owners, and everyone affected by this tragedy.”
Sarah Burger, counsel for Saratoga Harness Horseperson’s Association, described the horses’ deaths as a “tragic loss” and thanked first responders for jumping into action so quickly.
“This is a sobering day in our industry, a horseperson’s worst nightmare,” Henry Westbrook, Jr, president of the Saratoga Harness Horseperson’s Association, said in a statement. “We express our deep condolences to all impacted and thank all emergency responders and track workers for their quick response.”
No civilians or firefighters were injured as a result of the fire, the department said. The area near the fire remains closed as officials investigate.
Grief counseling services are being made available to trainers, caretakers, owners and other members of the backstretch community affected by incident, according to the association.
The association declined to provide further comment to ABC News.
Motorists drive through rainfall as a storm delivers heavy rain to the region on February 16, 2026 in Pasadena, California. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — El Nino conditions are present and expected to strengthen in the coming months, bringing potentially significant impacts to our weather, the upcoming hurricane season and global temperatures, according to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
NOAA issued an El Nino Advisory on Thursday, meaning El Nino conditions are observed and expected to continue. Its latest forecast calls for a strong El Nino to likely develop in the fall, with a 63% chance of a very strong El Nino between November 2026 and January 2027, which could rank among some of the strongest such events on record.
NOAA also noted that stronger El Nino events only make certain impacts more likely and do not always guarantee strong impacts.
El Nino refers to the warmer-than-average phase of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle where sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise and fall. The cooler-than-average phase is called La Nina, while near-average conditions are known as ENSO-neutral.
NOAA ranks the strength of El Nino events by measuring the sea surface temperature departure from average (anomaly) across this region, classifying events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong.
Forecasters say confidence in a strong to very strong event later this year has increased now that the spring season has passed. This is largely because spring in the Northern Hemisphere is when sea surface patterns across the tropical Pacific Ocean are in a transitional phase contributing to lower model accuracy.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement.
While adjectives such as “super” and “extreme” are popular ways of describing the strength of an El Nino event on social media, NOAA and the WMO classify the strength as weak to moderate, strong, and very strong. The WMO noted in a recent statement that “the term [[super]] is not part of standardized operational classifications.”
El Nino and La Nina events occur at irregular intervals, typically every 2 to 7 years. El Nino has been somewhat more frequent than La Nina in past observations, but both phases vary in timing and intensity from one cycle to the next.
As Earth’s climate warms, however, identifying and measuring these events becomes more challenging because temperature differences are superimposed on the long-term ocean warming trend.
“As the climate warms, interpreting anomalies becomes more challenging,” said Dr. Tim Stockdale, principal scientist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). “Rising background temperatures can make recent El Nino events appear stronger than they are, and La Nina events seem weaker.”
To address these challenges, NOAA and ECMWF updated the way they measure El Nino and La Nina this year, using a new index which compares sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific to global tropical ocean conditions rather than just that region’s historical data. NOAA calls this new method the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), which helps remove the effect of overall ocean warming.
The WMO notes that there is no evidence that human-amplified climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events.
Typical El Nino impacts across the United States
Impacts from El Nino, similar to La Nina, tend to be most consistent and pronounced from late autumn through early spring following the event’s onset, NOAA says. There is usually a delay between the onset of the event and many of the associated effects.
Experts caution that the impacts on weather patterns are nuanced. Each season is different, and typical El Nino conditions don’t always materialize.
“Every El Nino is different in terms of timing, magnitude, and geographic extent, and such differences lead to variability in the impacts — on temperatures and rainfall, for example — on a global scale,” Andrew Kruczkiewicz, senior staff researcher at Columbia Climate School, said.
Typically, during El Nino, the northern half of the United States and parts of Alaska are more likely to see warmer-than-average temperatures, with near- to below-average temperatures favored along the southern tier of the U.S., most likely from Texas to the Southeast.
For precipitation, wetter-than-average conditions are typically observed along the southern tier of the U.S. in parts of California, the Southwest, Gulf Coast and Southeast. Below-average precipitation is frequently observed across parts of the northern Rockies, south-central Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions.
El Nino typically increases the odds of above-average snowfall in the southern Rockies, south-central Plains, mid-Atlantic and coastal areas of the Northeast, with below-average snowfall favored in the northern Rockies, northern Plains and Great Lakes regions.
El Nino’s influence on hurricane season activity
El Nino conditions often suppress tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season by producing unfavorable atmospheric winds. In the Eastern Pacific, the opposite occurs, with favorable conditions supporting above-average hurricane season activity.
This was reflected in NOAA’s hurricane outlook released on May 21, with the agency predicting below average tropical activity for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with above average activity likely in the eastern Pacific.
“El Nino increases convection (thunderstorms) across the eastern and central Pacific, which causes downstream wind shear over the Atlantic from strong upper-level winds,” said Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies.
Vertical wind shear, which refers to changes in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere, is often a primary factor in below-average hurricane season activity. Strong vertical wind shear can tear a developing tropical system apart or even prevent it from forming, NOAA says.
“The rising motion over the Pacific also leads to increased subsidence (sinking air) over the Atlantic, which suppresses thunderstorms and tropical cyclone development,” Hazelton added.
El Nino’s impact on tropical activity will largely depend on how quickly it intensifies. Even so, El Nino is only one of several important variables which influence tropical activity.
Other factors, such as sea surface temperatures, also play an important role in tropical cyclone development and strength. Unseasonably warm ocean waters can partially offset the effects of unfavorable atmospheric winds, according to forecasters.
Global temperature records could be challenged again
2024 ranked as the planet’s warmest year on record, following the last El Nino event, which emerged in mid-2023 and persisted through spring 2024, according to NOAA. However, the return of El Nino means global temperature records could be challenged again in the near future, depending on its peak intensity and duration.
While global air and sea surface temperatures are currently falling short of new record highs, climate scientists warn this pause is unlikely to last. Record highs in global average temperature often occur during El Nino years, combined with the long-term global warming trend driven primarily by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
“Warmer ocean temperatures associated with El Nino, together with its tendency to favor warmer conditions in many areas, often contribute to warmer than normal global annual temperatures,” Jon Gottschalck, Chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said.
According to NOAA, 2025 ranked as the third-warmest year on record globally, trailing 2024 and 2023. The slightly lower ranking came amid recent La Niña conditions, which typically cause a temporary dip in global average temperatures.
There is usually a delay between the onset of El Nino and its peak impacts on global temperatures, NOAA says. As with the most recent event, its greatest influence often occurs in the months after it peaks, which can keep global temperatures elevated into the following year.
According to the latest outlook from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, the likelihood that 2026 will rank among the five warmest years on record is about 98.5%, while the probability of it becoming the warmest year is less than 1%. However, those odds could rise significantly in 2027, depending on how the event unfolds.
