When it all shakes out, GOP could have their narrowest House majority in history
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(WASHINGTON) — ABC projects that Democrat Adam Gray will win the race for California’s 13th Congressional District, unseating incumbent Republican John Duarte and flipping the final unresolved seat in the 2024 election.
With all 435 House races projected, ABC News estimates Republicans will hold 220 seats and Democrats 215 in the 119th Congress.
“People are excited about what we were able to achieve in electing another Republican House majority, keeping the majority,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said Wednesday morning.
But it’s not clear how vacancies — or, illness or other absences — will impact the day-to-day division of power when the House convenes on Jan. 3.
President-elect Donald Trump initially tapped three House Republicans for positions in his upcoming administration: Florida Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz, and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik. Gaetz has already resigned from Congress and withdrew last month from consideration to serve as President-elect Donald Trump’s attorney general. And though he won reelection to his seat last month, he said he won’t serve another term.
Republicans could have a 217-215 majority while their seats are vacant — the narrowest GOP majority in history — and special elections to fill those seats can take months to complete.
In this case, any single Republican can hold Johnson’s agenda hostage: Losing just one Republican on a vote would result in a 216-216 tie.
But several elderly Democrats have missed votes recently, which could give Republicans a little more breathing room next year.
In California’s 13th District, Duarte conceded to Gray on Tuesday, according to the Turlock Journal.
“I’m a citizen legislator, and I didn’t plan on being in Congress forever,” Duarte told the newspaper. “But whenever I think I can make a difference, I’ll consider public service in different forms, including running for Congress again.”
Gray released a victory statement on X Tuesday evening, extending his gratitude and saying the “final results confirm this district is ready for independent and accountable leadership that always puts the Valley’s people ahead of partisan politics.”
-ABC News’ Marilyn Heck and Benjamin Siegel contributed to this report.
(NEW YORK) — Republicans in North Carolina and nationally are assessing the potential fallout for former President Donald Trump from a bombshell report alleging that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the party’s gubernatorial nominee, posted disturbing and inflammatory statements on a forum of a pornographic website.
CNN reported Thursday that Robinson, behind an anonymous username he allegedly used elsewhere, made the comments more than a decade ago, including supporting slavery, calling himself a “black NAZI” and recalling memories of him “peeping” on women in the shower as a 14-year-old.
ABC News has not independently verified the comments were made by Robinson, and he insisted in a video posted to X prior to the story’s publication that “those are not the words of Mark Robinson.”
But Robinson, a Donald Trump ally, already has a history of incendiary remarks about Jews, gay people and others, and elections in North Carolina, one of the nation’s marquee swing states, rest on a knife’s edge, raising questions of how much the latest news will impact his race and other Republicans on the ballot with him — including the former president.
“I think this only heightens the level of toxicity that the Robinson campaign has, and the real question becomes, what’s the radioactive fallout at the top of the ticket along with down the ballot for Republicans here in North Carolina” asked Michael Bitzer, the Politics Department chair at Catawba College.
“This cannot be something that the voters aren’t going to recognize and probably play more into softening the Republican support. Is it isolated only to Robinson’s campaign, or does it start to impact Trump? Does it impact other statewide executive Republicans as well? We’ll just have to wait and see, but this feels like a pretty significant event in North Carolina politics.”
Robinson, who casts himself as a conservative family man and is running for North Carolina’s open governorship against Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein, is already behind in the polls.
While he holds statewide office and has broad name recognition, Robinson boasts a highly controversial record, including calling the Holocaust “hogwash” and homosexuality “filth,” and he drew claims of hypocrisy when he admitted this year that he had paid for his wife to get an abortion, seemingly in contrast with his stated opposition to the procedure, which he’d previously likened to “murder” and “genocide.”
North Carolina’s gubernatorial race is still considered competitive given the state’s tight partisan divide, but Republicans in the state told ABC News they had already viewed him as trailing, and that Thursday’s report won’t help.
“He’s already got a lengthy history of publishing comments like that on the internet. These are perhaps a little more graphic. In terms of does this by itself serve as a guillotine, I don’t know. But it feels like the cumulative weight is starting to add up now,” said one North Carolina GOP strategist. “It flies in the face of everything he presents of himself publicly. So, cumulatively plus the hypocrisy of this, it’s obviously hurtful to him.”
Republicans were more divided on what it means beyond Robinson’s own candidacy.
North Carolina is a must-win state for Trump, and losing it would impose significant pressure on him to perform in other swing states.
Trump is already running ahead of Robinson — while polls show Robinson trailing, they also show a neck-and-neck race in the state between the former president and Vice President Kamala Harris. The main question now is whether the news depresses Republican turnout in a state where even a small nudge in turnout one way or the other can make decide the victor.
“[Robinson] was already toast. The question is if it hurts Trump, something the campaign is very worried about,” said Doug Heye, a veteran GOP strategist with experience working in North Carolina. “It doesn’t directly cost him voters, but his endorsed pick continues to be a big distraction and has no money to drive out the vote.”
“He’s a baby blue anchor around Trump’s chances in the Tar Heel State,” added Trump donor Dan Eberhart. “This is not good news for Trump’s campaign at all.”
Democrats are already seizing on the news to try to connect Robinson to Trump, who has repeatedly praised him, even calling him at one point “Martin Luther King on steroids.”
Kamala HQ, an X page that serves as one of the Harris campaign’s rapid response tools, posted a slate of videos featuring Trump speaking positively about Robinson.
“His campaign was toast before this story, so the real impact is on all of the Republicans who have endorsed and campaigned alongside him,” said Bruce Thompson, a North Carolina Democratic fundraiser.
However, Trump has been able to navigate his own headwinds, including felony convictions in New York, questioning Harris’ race and more to remain the leader of his party and a viable presidential candidate, leading some Republicans to doubt that Robinson’s struggles will impact the presidential campaign.
“Doubt it impacts at all down-ballot,” said Dave Carney, a GOP strategist who chairs a pro-Trump super PAC.
“I don’t think it helps, but it won’t hurt,” added Sean Spicer, Trump’s first White House press secretary.
Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt sounded a confident note, saying in a statement that the former president’s team would “not take our eye off the ball.”
“President Trump’s campaign is focused on winning the White House and saving this country. North Carolina is a vital part of that plan. We are confident that as voters compare the Trump record of a strong economy, low inflation, a secure border, and safe streets, with the failures of Biden-Harris, then President Trump will win the Tarheel State once again,” she said.”
Still, sources familiar with the matter said the Trump campaign was bracing for a story to come out about Robinson and is planning on putting more distance between the former president and the embattled nominee Robinson — but initially did not have plans to call on him to drop out.
“He seems to not be impacted by what’s going on down-ballot underneath him,” the North Carolina Republican strategist said of Trump. “There’s no way it helps him. But does it hurt him? I don’t know, I think that’s an open question.”
(WASHINGTON) — As Republicans senators returned to Washington after Thanksgiving recess to a renewed peppering of questions about President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks, a familiar refrain emerged: trust the confirmation process.
“That’s why we’re going to take the normal process, vet all the nominees, and give everybody a chance to ask those questions during a hearing,” Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said when asked about new allegations concerning Pete Hegseth, Trump’s choice for defense secretary.
“That is why our process is so important,” Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, said when asked about the controversial reports surrounding Hegseth.
“The president is allowed to have his appointees who we will have to see,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., said when asked about Kash Patel, Trump’s nominee to lead the FBI. “I don’t know Kash Patel, we have to have him go through the process.”
“Like all the other nominees, he’ll get a process and a confirmation hearing and vetting and everything else. They’ll all have to through it, and we’ll see where the process takes us,” incoming Senate Republican Leader John Thune said about Patel.
The responses fell short of glowing endorsements for some of Trump’s nominees. And even as many Republicans call for regular processes to be followed as these nominations are considered, there remains at least one discrepancy on what a normal order process would look like.
Senators torn over FBI background checks
Though vetting of nominations has traditionally included an FBI background check, Republican senators are torn on whether one is 100% necessary for confirmation.
Thune told ABC News the issue over background checks will hopefully be “resolved.” While noting that there are “other alternatives” for getting information, Thune said that FBI background checks are “historically” the best way.
“I think, hopefully at some point they’ll get this background check issue resolved. At this point I’m not sure exactly how it’s going to be resolved but I think they will. I think the administration understands there’s got to be a thorough vetting of all of these noms,” Thune said. “And that, you know, historically, the best place to get that done has been through the FBI. They have other alternatives, you know, obviously, I assume our committee chairman will just want to make sure that they’ve got the background that they need to carefully evaluate these noms.”
Sen. Roger Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee that will be responsible for managing Hegseth’s nomination, told ABC News the panel is “looking at the way its been done traditionally and getting information about that as to who actually orders the FBI background check.”
But when pushed on whether he would want to see an FBI background check, he said he would.
“I would prefer a full background check, yes,” Wicker said.
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said he believes there will be background checks and he’d like to see them.
“My preference would be an FBI background check, and I’m not, I don’t know that we won’t have FBI background checks. I know that we have really good staffs and really good investigators, and they work closely with the FBI, so I’m not worried at all about — about not having background checks done on — not just these nominees, but any nominees by a president. I think that’s a false issue,” Kennedy said.
Some senators kept their cards close on this issue.
Cornyn ignored questions on whether he’d want to see a FBI background check for nominees like Patel.
But others are prepared to follow Trump’s lead.
“My position is what President Trump decides to do is what I will support,” Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, said.
Lawmakers react to Kash Patel’s nomination
No Republican senator flatly rejected Patel as Trump’s choice to lead the Department of Justice, though many said they’ll wait for Patel to move through the Senate Judiciary Committee before making a decision on him.
But ultimately, for Patel to be installed, current FBI Director Chris Wray would need to be fired or step down.
There appears to be a general sense among Republicans that they would be okay with Wray being forced out.
“I am, I am,” Capito said when asked if she would be comfortable with Trump removing Wray to install Patel.
Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, said she likes Patel, and added that the FBI needs someone new to “go in and clean it up.”
Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said it is reasonable for Trump to want to put in place someone he is comfortable with after his experiences during his first administration and in the years that followed.
“Think about what this guy has gone through, he’s had his house raided, he’s been indicted, so I think he’s probably in a position that you know, and then think about it in his first term, he had a special prosecutor, so I think he probably wants somebody that he knows is going to be loyal,” Scott said.
(WASHINGTON) — The election of a new chair of the Democratic National Committee, along with other top leadership positions, will be Feb. 1, 2025, at the party’s winter meeting in National Harbor, Maryland, according to a DNC official.
This selection of incoming DNC officers, which includes chair, vice chairs, treasurer, secretary, and national finance chair positions, comes as the party grapples with the results of the 2024 election, when they lost the presidency, control of the U.S. Senate and were not able to earn the majority in the House.
Laying out the next steps for party leadership, current DNC Chair Jamie Harrison — who is not vying for a second term — also announced on Monday that the party will host four forums for candidates to make their case to the 448 active DNC members who will be voting on their bids.
The forums, set to be both in-person and virtually, will provide “opportunities for engagement of grassroots Democrats,” a party official said, and will “focus on the questions and concerns of DNC members, elected representatives who will ultimately vote to elect the incoming officers.”
“As my time as Chair comes to a close and we prepare to undertake the critical work of holding the Trump Administration and Republican Party accountable for their extremism and false promises, we are beginning to lay out the process for upcoming DNC officer elections in the New Year. The DNC is committed to running a transparent, equitable, and impartial election for the next generation of leadership to guide the party forward,” Harrison said in a statement on Monday.
Harrison and all DNC staff will maintain complete neutrality throughout the process, including abstaining from endorsing or campaigning for any candidate, a party official told ABC.
“Electing the Chair and DNC officers is one of the most important responsibilities of the DNC Membership, and our staff will run an inclusive and transparent process that gives members the opportunity to get to know the candidates as they prepare to cast their votes,” Harrison added.
The DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee is set to meet on Dec. 12 to first develop a process for selecting Democratic Party officers. They’ll recommend a “Rules of Procedure” for the nomination and election of the candidates that will be sent to full membership for the vote during the winter meeting, which begins Jan. 30 in National Harbor.
Included in these rules are the requirements for gaining access to the ballot. In 2021, candidates were required to submit a nominating statement alongside the signatures of 40 DNC members. The DNC intends to use this 40 signature threshold for candidate participation in the forums, a party official said to ABC.
Thus far, there are two candidates actively campaigning to be the next chair. Former Maryland governor and Baltimore mMayor Martin O’Malley, who has served since December 2023 as the commissioner of the Social Security Administration, a week ago was the first to throw his hat into the ring for what is expected to be many bids to lead a Democratic party left in disarray following their election losses earlier this month.
“We must connect our Party with the most important place in America — the kitchen table of every family’s home. Jobs, Opportunity, and Economic Security for all. Getting things done. Hope. A 50 state strategy. Now.” he said on Monday in a post on X.
Shortly after, Ken Martin of Minnesota, a vice chair of the DNC who also serves as chairman of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party and president of the Association of State Democratic Committees, entered the race.
In a statement, Martin says he’s already garnered the endorsement of 83 DNC members and will be “working to earn every vote between now and the party elections.” In his launch, Martin emphasized the party’s need to “hit the pavement, get out of DC for a bit, and go to the states — to listen, reconnect with the voters, and restore a strong and resilient party.”
Other names floated for DNC chair have been ambassador to Japan and former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel, Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chairman Ben Wikler, and Chuck Rocha, a political strategist who worked for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign, among others. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy won’t be running for the role, ABC News has confirmed, after some speculation about his candidacy had been rumored.
The 448 DNC members who will vote on Feb. 1 includes 200 state elected members from 57 states, territories, and Democrats Abroad; members representing 16 affiliate groups; and 73 current at-large members elected by the DNC.
-ABC News’ Brittany Shepherd and Hannah Demissie contributed to this report.
