(NEW YORK) — The U.S. economy grew at a robust pace over three months ending in September, slowing slightly from the previous quarter but continuing to dispel any concern about a possible slowdown. The fresh report marks one of the last major pieces of economic data before the presidential election.
U.S. GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate over three months ending in September. That figure fell slightly below economists’ expectations.
Economic growth was fueled by surge in consume spending, an uptick in exports and strong federal government spending, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
The new data arrived weeks after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate a half of a percentage point. The landmark decision dialed back a years-long fight against inflation and offered relief for borrowers saddled with high costs.
Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, though it remains slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.
Meanwhile, the labor market has proven resilient. Employers hired 254,000 workers in September, far exceeding economist expectations of 150,000 jobs added, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, hovering near a 50-year low.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
(NEW YORK) — The Federal Reserve is set to make a pivotal decision about its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday that could dial back its years-long fight against inflation.
Investors widely expect the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020, delivering long-sought relief for consumers saddled by high borrowing costs for everything from credit cards to mortgages.
“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month at an annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear.”
Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, though it remains slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.
Meanwhile, the job market has cooled. A weaker-than-expected jobs report in each of the last two months has stoked concern among some economists.
In theory, lower interest rates help stimulate economic activity and boost employment; higher interest rates slow economic performance and ease inflation.
“We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability,” Powell said last month.
The chances of an interest rate cut at the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday are all but certain, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
Market observers are divided over whether the Fed will impose its typical cut of a quarter of a percentage point, or opt for a larger half-point cut. The tool estimates the probability of a half-point cut at 65% and the odds of a quarter-point cut at 35%.
A half-point cut risks overstimulating the economy and rekindling elevated inflation, while a quarter-point cut threatens to delay the type of economic jumpstart that may be required to avert a recession, Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, told ABC News in a statement.
“Rarely have market expectations been so torn” on the eve of a rate decision, Shah added.
Regardless of the size of the rate cut, borrowers should not expect immediate relief, Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, told ABC News in a statement.
“This initial rate cut will have little immediate impact,” Renter said. “I anticipate many consumers and business owners will take the beginning of this change in monetary policy as a sign of hope.”
The expected rate cut on Wednesday would go into effect less than 50 days before the November election.
The Fed says it bases its decisions on economic conditions and operates as an independent government body.
When asked about the 2024 election at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Powell said, “We don’t think about politics.”
(NEW YORK) — A new bill that would allow some undocumented immigrants to receive loans to buy homes is sparking debate as it passes through the California Legislature.
Assembly Bill 1840 would make it clear that a person who applies for a loan under the California Dream for All Program cannot be disqualified solely because of their immigration status. It passed the state Senate with a 25-14 vote.
The program is run by California Housing Finance Agency, which generates revenue “through mortgage loans, not taxpayer dollars,” according to the agency’s website.
Their program provides a shared appreciation loan — which typically means that first-time homebuyers do not pay interest. Instead, they only have to pay back the original loan amount, plus 20% of any home value appreciation. The loan covers 20% of the purchase price or up to $150,000 to cover a down payment or closing costs.
The loan must be paired with a 30-year fixed interest rate first mortgage from the California Housing Finance Agency and the recipient does not have to make payments on the share appreciation loan until the first mortgage is paid off.
In a general statement on the program’s mission, Gov. Gavin Newsom stated: “As part of the state’s comprehensive efforts to improve affordability, build generational wealth and unlock access to housing, Dream For All is paving the way home for thousands of Californians. This program is more than just financial assistance – it’s about providing a pathway for individuals to achieve their California dream.”
It is not clear if Newsom intends to sign the bill. A two-thirds vote in each chamber of the legislature would be needed to override a veto — which could be achieved with the votes in favor of the bill thus far.
If the new bill is passed or signed into law, undocumented borrowers would be able to apply for the housing loan. However, they would be required to have a valid Social Security number or Individual Taxpayer Identification Number in addition to meeting existing legal residency and documentation requirements.
This language would allow, for example, people who pay taxes but are not legal citizens, such as recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy, known as DACA, to apply for the loan.
Supporters say the bill is intended to allow all those who pay taxes in the state to be able to qualify for the assistance.
“Homeownership is one of the largest contributors to building wealth for low and middle-income families,” said Cynthia Gomez, a deputy director at The Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights in an April hearing on the bill. “However, it’s also well understood that there are many barriers to access for homeownership, in particular for communities of color. California is solution-orientated, and we have implemented various policies that have made homeownership a reality for Californians.”
Critics argue that the money should not be geared toward people who are undocumented and that noncitizens should not be eligible for state programs.
“I just can’t get behind using our limited dollars for people who continue, who are in this country undocumented when we have very limited funds,” said state Rep. Joe Patterson during a hearing on the bill in April.
The Trump campaign told Politico that it believed the bill to be “fundamentally unfair but typical Democrat policy.”
The Senate Appropriations Committee said in a mid-August meeting that the cost pressures on the program, if it were to undergo an expansion, are “unknown,” but the California Housing Finance Agency (CalHFA) indicated “that any costs to update program regulations to prohibit application disqualification based on immigration status would be minor and absorbable,” according to filings in the legislature on the bill.
The debate comes as immigration has continuously ranked as a top issue for 2024 voters, according to Gallup.
California has the largest undocumented population in the country, with an estimated population of 1.85 million undocumented immigrants in 2021, according to the Pew Research Center.
At the same time, California is dealing with a housing crisis, with a growing homeless population and increasingly high costs for housing.
California mid-tier homes are twice as expensive as the typical U.S. home — selling at more than $700,000, according to California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office, and 28% of all homeless people in the U.S. live in California, the point-in-time report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development recorded.
(NEW YORK) — The Federal Reserve handed down a large interest rate cut this week, dialing back the central bank’s fight against inflation and signaling welcome relief for borrowers.
It remains to be seen, however, whether the Fed will continue to lower rates and further ease the burden for people and companies saddled with loans.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a policymaking body at the Fed, on Wednesday forecast further interest rate cuts.
By the end of 2024, interest rates will fall nearly another half of a percentage point from their current level of between 4.75% and 5%, according to FOMC projections. Interest rates will drop another percentage point over the course of 2025, the projections further indicated.
Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the projections reflect expectations that the economy will sustain the same pair of trends that prompted the rate cut in the first place: falling inflation and rising unemployment.
“These projections, however, are not a committee plan or decision,” Powell said. “As the economy evolves, monetary policy will adjust.”
Experts who spoke to ABC News predicted that the Fed is all but certain to deliver at least one more interest rate cut this year, hewing fairly closely to its projection for the coming months. However, the experts voiced caution about the forecast for rate cuts next year, saying the path would depend on economic performance, which is difficult to anticipate.
“These long-term interest rates projections are almost never correct,” Derek Horstmeyer, a finance professor at George Mason University’s Costello College of Business, told ABC News. “There is a lot of uncertainty.”
The Fed is guided by a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. In theory, low interest rates help stimulate economic activity and boost employment, while high interest rates slow economic performance and ease inflation.
Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, though it remains slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2%. The FOMC expects the inflation rate to fall to 2.1% next year and to reach the central bank’s target of 2% by 2026, projections show.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has ticked up this year. The FOMC expects that rate to also rise gradually next year, then hold steady over the following two years.
“If we stay on track with these projections, that’ll be great news,” Horstmeyer said. “It will be a signal that we pulled off a soft landing.”
The economy, however, may not perform as anticipated. A snag in the cooldown of inflation, or even an outright reversal, could prompt the Fed to pause its rate projected rate cuts, experts said. On the other hand, a greater-than-expected rise in unemployment or a possible recession could cause the Fed to cut rates faster than initially planned.
“If inflation has any surprise to the upside, it wouldn’t take much to see one of those projected cuts disappear,” William Luther, a professor of economics at Florida Atlantic University, told ABC News, referring to the two quarter-point rate cuts expected over the remainder of 2024.
A spike in unemployment, meanwhile, could prompt the Fed to revisit its plans for interest rates going forward, Luther added.
“If labor markets in particular were to show signs of deterioration over the next two months, we could see considerable revisions to the path of the federal funds rate,” Luther said.
On Wednesday, Powell acknowledged the flexibility of the Fed’s plans for rate cuts.
“We can go quicker if that is appropriate. We can go slower if that’s appropriate. We can pause if that’s appropriate,” Powell said. “This process evolves over time.”
