Stocks tumble as Trump tariffs create ‘uncertainty’ in markets
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(NEW YORK) — The stock market fell in early trading on Tuesday, just hours after the Trump administration’s long-promised tariffs took effect.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 800 points, or 1.8%; while the S&P 500 also fell 1.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 1.6%.
The policy taxes imports from Mexico, Canada and China — the three largest trading partners of the United States — meaning that it could raise prices for everything from gasoline to avocados to iPhones.
Shares of retail giant Target fell 4.5% in early trading on Tuesday, following an earnings release from the company that cited “tariff uncertainty” as a potential impediment for the business. Walmart’s stock price dipped 1% on Tuesday, while Amazon shares fell 2%.
Shares of Best Buy plummeted more than 13% on Tuesday morning. The sharp drop came hours after Best Buy CEO told analysts that price increases are “highly likely” as a result of the tariffs.
Higher costs for car production could also pose a challenge for U.S. automakers, many of which depend on a supply chain closely intertwined with Mexico and Canada.
Shares of Ford tumbled 3% on Tuesday, while General Motors dropped more than 4%. Stellantis — the parent company of Jeep and Chrysler — saw shares plummet more than 7%.
Tesla, the electric carmaker led by Elon Musk, saw its stock price drop nearly 7%.
The far-reaching losses extend a market slide that began on Monday afternoon when Trump affirmed plans to impose a fresh round of tariffs.
Trump stuck to a March 4 start date for 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, as well as 10% tariff on Chinese goods — which, as of Tuesday, rises to 20%, per an amended executive order.
Tariffs of this magnitude would likely increase prices paid by U.S. shoppers, since importers typically pass along a share of the cost of those higher taxes to consumers, experts said. The duties also raise input costs for manufacturers that import raw materials.
In addition to Tesla and Amazon, the tariffs appeared to impact some of the other so-called “Magnificent Seven,” a group of large tech firms that helped drive stock market gains in recent years.
Chipmaker Nvidia, which relies on semiconductors from Taiwan but also imports some materials from Mexico, saw shares drop more than 2%.
Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, suffered a 4% drop in its stock price. Microsoft’s stock fell 1%.
Shares of Alphabet and Google defied the trend, however, remaining essentially unchanged in early trading on Tuesday.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
(NEW YORK) — Homebuyers eager to forget this year’s housing market may ring in 2025 with an extra dash of zeal.
A rapid rise in home prices has coincided with stubbornly high mortgage rates, shutting out potential buyers with daunting costs.
A burst of supply could have eased prices, but no such relief was forthcoming. Instead, homeowners have balked at swapping out their current mortgage rates for higher ones, and construction has failed to make up for a long-standing shortage in new homes.
Unfortunately, next year’s housing market will likely bring more of the same, experts told ABC News.
Home prices may rise at a slower pace, offering a glimmer of hope as high mortgage rates fall slightly but continue to weigh on consumer activity, they said.
Still, the market appears locked into a fundamental mismatch of supply and demand set to frustrate buyers, the experts added.
“I don’t see much sunshine in the forecast,” Ken Johnson, chief of real estate at the University of Mississippi, told ABC News. “It’s going to be gloomy and overcast, but it’s not going to be stormy.”
An unusual trend has beguiled buyers: Home prices are soaring, despite a prolonged stretch of high mortgage rates that, in theory, should crimp demand and push down prices.
Market observers who spoke to ABC News said they expect both price increases and mortgage rates to ease in 2025 — but only a smidge.
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.85%, FreddieMac data last week showed. That figure has ticked up slightly since the start of the year, despite a series of interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve in recent months.
Earlier this month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said rate cuts may slow over the course of 2025. Such a policy would leave mortgage rates higher for longer, experts said.
Redfin, a Seattle, Washington-based real estate giant, forecasts average 30-year fixed mortgage rates will remain in the high 6% range over the duration of 2025. Online real estate marketplace Zillow says mortgage rates will fall, but only moderately.
Alongside persistently high mortgage rates, experts predicted a continued, albeit slower, rise in home prices.
In September, Goldman Sachs predicted a 4.4% rise in home prices in 2025, which would mark a slight decline from the 4.5% rise in 2024.
The persistence of high mortgage rates will put some downward pressure on prices, since demand will soften as many consumers forego expensive loans, experts said, but the high rates will also exacerbate a lack of supply that has kept prices soaring.
Current homeowners will want to remain locked into relatively low mortgage rates. Homebuilding will deliver much-needed supply of new homes, but it will fall well short of the amount required to meet demand, experts said.
“I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news, but it doesn’t feel like prices are going to moderate that much,” Marc Norman, associate dean at the New York University School of Professional Studies and Schack Institute of Real Estate, told ABC News. “If you don’t have a lot on the market, that’s going to put pressure on prices.”
Experts who spoke to ABC News acknowledged that economic forces could defy expectations, leaving the housing market in better or worse shape than anticipated.
Faster-than-expected progress in bringing inflation down to the Fed’s target level could free up the central bank to slash interest rates, which in turn would lower mortgage rates, some experts said. An economic downturn would damage household finances and ease demand, likely leading to a drop in home prices, they added.
If inflation proves more stubborn than expected, however, interest rates may stay high for even longer, experts said, which could put the housing market into an even deeper freeze.
For now, the outlook for 2025 appears clear, Christopher Mayer, a real estate professor at the Columbia University Business School, told ABC News.
“My best guess is that next year is a lot like this year,” Mayer said.
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(WASHINGTON) — President Donald Trump on Thursday said he will call for a lowering of U.S. interest rates, exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve despite a longstanding norm of political independence at the central bank.
During a virtual address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump demanded a drop in interest rates after calling for a reduction of oil prices set by a group of nations known as OPEC, which includes Saudi Arabia.
The prospect of low oil prices will enable the Fed to dial back its fight against inflation and bring down interest rates, Trump said.
“I’m going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil,” Trump said, later adding: “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately.”
The U.S. does not belong to OPEC, nor does the president play a role in the organization’s decisions regarding the price of oil sold by its member states.
The central bank is typically insulated from political interference, but several past presidents have sought to influence the Fed’s interest rate policy, including Trump, who repeatedly spoke out in favor of low interest rates during his first term.
On the campaign trail in August, Trump said a U.S. president should have a role in setting interest rates.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a defiant tone in November when posed with the question of whether he would resign from his position if asked by Trump.
“No,” Powell told reporters assembled at a press conference in Washington, D.C., blocks away from the White House.
When asked whether Trump could fire or demote him, Powell retorted: “Not permitted under the law.”
The prospect of a presidential role in setting interest rates drew opposition from both liberal and conservative economists who previously spoke to ABC News.
Critics of an expanded role for the president point to a bout of high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. Before the inflation took hold, President Richard Nixon had urged Fed Chair Arthur Burns to cut rates in the run-up to the 1972 presidential election.
Nixon’s advocacy is widely viewed as a contributing factor for lower-than-necessary interest rates that enabled inflation to get out of control, some economists noted.
“Allowing the president, any president, to help set monetary policy would eventually wreck the U.S. economy,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told ABC News.
The statements from Trump on Thursday came amid a monthslong reduction in interest rates.
The Fed cut interest rates by a total of a percentage point over the final months of 2024, delivering relief for borrowers long-saddled by a prolonged stretch of high interest rates.
The central bank, however, has indicated that it may cut rates less often in 2025 than it previously indicated. Inflation may prove more difficult to bring under control than policymakers thought just a few months ago, according to the bank.
The Fed is set to make its next decision on interest rates next week. The central bank is widely expected to maintain interest rates at the current level of between 4.25% and 4.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
Speaking on Thursday, Trump said a lowering of rates could bring about a reduction of interest rates worldwide.
“They should drop all over the world,” Trump said. “They should follow us.”
(WASHINGTON) — Tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada that are set to take effect could hike the price of a gallon of gasoline for some drivers by as much as 70 cents and send grocery bills climbing, experts told ABC News.
The Trump administration this week reiterated plans to slap 25% tariffs on all products from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1. Those countries make up two of the three largest U.S. trading partners, government data shows.
Tariffs of this magnitude would likely increase prices paid by U.S. shoppers, since importers typically pass along a share of the cost of those higher taxes to consumers, experts said. The policy could raise prices for an array of products ranging from tomatoes to tequila to auto parts.
“The scary thing is the list of products is very, very long,” said Jason Miller, a professor of supply-chain management at Michigan State University.
The price impact remains unclear, however, since businesses within the supply chain could opt to take on some or all of the tax burden, some experts added, noting the tariffs may not take effect at all since Trump has previously used them as a source of leverage in international negotiations.
In response to ABC News’ request for comment, a White House spokesperson touted Trump’s previous economic policies, including tariffs.
“In his first administration, President Trump instituted an America First economic agenda of tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation, and an unleashing of American energy that resulted in historic job, wage, and investment growth with no inflation. In his second administration, President Trump will again use tariffs to level the playing field and usher in a new era of growth and prosperity for American industry and workers,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai told ABC News.
Here’s what to know about which products could see price increases as result of the tariffs, according to experts:
Gas
Mexico and Canada account for 70% of U.S. crude oil imports, which make up a key input for the nation’s gasoline supply, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a government agency.
Those imports come primarily from Canada, which sends crude oil to U.S. refineries built specifically to process the crude and redistribute it as car-ready gasoline, Timothy Fitzgerald, a professor of business economics at the University of Tennessee who studies the petroleum industry, told ABC News.
Gasoline that originates as Canadian crude reaches customers in the upper Midwest as well as some along the East and West coasts, Fitzgerald said. For those drivers, he added, prices could rise between 40 and 70 cents per gallon of gasoline.
“You could definitely be looking at 50 cent-a-gallon increases in a lot of parts of the country,” Fitzgerald added, noting that the effects would be limited to the regions that rely on imported crude.
The tariff-related price increase may combine with a seasonal price hike set to take effect within weeks, since demand for gas typically grows as travel picks up in the warmer spring weather, experts said.
That seasonal price impact could add another 30 cents per gallon, putting the total increase in gasoline prices at $1 per gallon if the tariffs remain in place at the onset of spring, Fitzgerald said.
Tomatoes and Avocados
The U.S. imported $38.5 billion in agricultural goods from Mexico in 2023, making it the top recipient of such products, U.S Department of Agriculture data showed. Those imports include more than $3 billion worth of fresh fruits and vegetables.
Mexican imports account for a large share of some fruits and vegetables routinely eaten by Americans.
Roughly 90% of avocados eaten in the U.S. last year originated in Mexico, USDA data showed. Other products with a high concentration of Mexican imports include tomatoes, cucumbers, bell peppers, jalapenos, limes and mangos, Miller said.
It would be difficult for the U.S. to replace those goods with domestic production or an alternative supplier, making it likely that prices would rise significantly if the tariffs take effect, he added.
“You’d certainly expect to see an impact on prices,” Miller said.
The U.S. also imports large quantities of beer, tequila and other alcoholic beverages from Mexico, experts said. In 2022, the U.S. imported about $26 billion worth of alcoholic drinks from Mexico, according to the USDA.
“Don’t forget all that beer we import from Mexico,” Miller said.
Cars and auto parts
Carmakers and consumers depend on the auto industry’s deep ties to Canada and Mexico, making tariffs a threat to prices, experts said.
Mexico and Canada make up the top two U.S. trading partners for both finished motor vehicles and car parts, according to a Cato Institute analysis of data from the U.S. International Trade Commission.
In 2023, Canada and Mexico accounted for nearly $120 billion worth of U.S. motor vehicle imports, which totaled about 47% of all such vehicles imported that year. Canada and Mexico made up nearly the same share of auto parts imports that year, the Cato Institute analysis showed.
“The operations of auto companies on both sides of the border will be hugely affected by these tariffs,” Robert Lawrence, a professor of trade and investment at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, told ABC News.
