A potential Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire deal has emerged. Here’s what to expect
Ramiz Dallah/Anadolu via Getty Images
(LONDON) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene his security cabinet on Tuesday and hold a vote on a cease-fire deal that could end more than a year of fighting across the Israeli-Lebanese border, an Israeli official told ABC News. The cabinet is expected to approve the U.S.-brokered deal.
Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah launches continued regardless. Airstrikes again rocked the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiya on Tuesday, with the Israel Defense Forces reporting “large scale” attacks on the area shortly after issuing multiple evacuation orders. Another IDF strike hit a building in the central Basta neighborhood, which was also subject to an massive airstrike on Saturday.
The IDF reported at least 250 projectiles fired into Israel on Monday, with Hezbollah claiming multiple cross-border attacks on Israeli targets on Tuesday morning.
An Israeli source with knowledge of the deal’s details told ABC News that the 60-day cease-fire would see all Israeli forces withdraw from Lebanon in phases, with Hezbollah retreating beyond the Litani River around 18 miles north of the Israeli border.
Lebanese Armed Forces troops — with assistance from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon — will deploy to the south of the country to ensure that Hezbollah does not re-enter the area between the Israeli border and the Litani, the source said.
The U.S. will provide oversight on Hezbollah’s withdrawal and will also head a committee — joined by French and Arab partners — to monitor and verify the implementation of the cease-fire, the Israeli source added.
The cease-fire would be expected to come into force shortly after the agreement is announced — as early as Wednesday morning. The two Israeli sources involved in the talks who spoke with ABC News said the proposal has near-unanimous agreement from the security cabinet, though far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is expected to vote against it. His opposition will not torpedo the deal.
A parallel U.S.-Israeli agreement, though, suggests that any deal will not necessarily mean an end to all fighting.
The Israeli source with knowledge of the deal said the U.S. has pledged support for Israel’s right to strike anywhere in Lebanon against “critical” or “immediate” threats from Hezbollah or other militant groups.
Still, the possible cease-fire deal would be a major diplomatic achievement after nearly 14 months of war and almost 4,000 total deaths — the vast majority Lebanese — on both sides of the shared border.
Tens of thousands of Israelis have fled their homes in the north of the country, while a quarter of Lebanon’s population — around 1.2 million people — have been put under IDF evacuation orders.
U.S. officials have hinted at progress but refused to confirm details of any deal.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told journalists at a Monday briefing that the outcome of the talks is “up to the parties, not to us.”
“We don’t believe we have an agreement yet,” Miller said. “We believe we’re close to an agreement. We believe that we have narrowed the gap significantly, but there are still steps that we need to see taken, but we hope — we hope that we can get there.”
White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby was similarly cautious. “We believe that the trajectory of this is going in a very positive direction,” he told reporters Monday.
“But again, nothing is done until everything is done. Nothing’s all negotiated till everything is negotiated. And you know, we need to keep at the work to see it through so that we can actually get the ceasefire for which we’ve been working for for so long and so hard.”
ABC News’ Jordana Miller, Joe Simonetti, Ghazi Balkiz, Joe Simonetti, Chris Boccia and Cheyenne Haslett contributed to this report.
(NEW YORK) — The climate crisis is not a distant threat; it’s happening right now and affecting what matters most to us. Hurricanes intensified by a warming planet and drought-fueled wildfires are destroying our communities. Rising seas and flooding are swallowing our homes. And record-breaking heat waves are reshaping our way of life.
The good news is we know how to turn the tide and avoid the worst possible outcomes. However, understanding what needs to be done can be confusing due to a constant stream of climate updates, scientific findings, and critical decisions that are shaping our future.
That’s why the ABC News Climate and Weather Unit is cutting through the noise by curating what you need to know to keep the people and places you care about safe. We are dedicated to providing clarity amid the chaos, giving you the facts and insights necessary to navigate the climate realities of today — and tomorrow.
Could the UK be a model for clean electricity production?
When it comes to curbing climate change, scientists have been clear. The world needs to stop burning fossil fuels. However, much of the world still depends on significant amounts of oil, gas and coal for its energy needs.
England kicked off the coal power revolution in 1882 and, for the next 142 years, burned the greenhouse gas-emitting energy source. But last year, the U.K. became the first G7 country to phase out coal power plants. When the Ratcliffe-on-Soar plant in Nottinghamshire closed in September, it marked the end of an era for the most-polluting fossil fuel in that region.
A new analysis by Carbon Brief, a U.K.-based climate publication, found that by eliminating coal and adopting more clean energy sources, the U.K. has significantly cleaned up its electricity generation, meaning it’s generating the least amount of greenhouse gas emissions in its history.
According to the analysis, in 2024, renewable energy sources reached a record-high 45% in the country, while fossil fuels made up 29%. Nuclear energy accounted for another 13%. Over the last decade, renewable energy sources have more than doubled. As a result, carbon emissions have plunged by two-thirds over that time.
While gas-fired power plants are still the U.K.’s single-largest source of electricity, wind power has almost caught up. However, the analysis found that when new wind projects come online in the coming months, the U.K. will likely generate more power from wind than gas in 2025.
While the incoming Trump administration calls for more drilling and fossil fuel use, including coal, in the United States, the U.K. just had its cleanest year ever for electricity generation. The combination of sunsetting coal power plants and increasing the amount of renewable energy is moving the country in the direction scientists say is crucial for stopping the worst impacts of human-amplified climate change.
-ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser
New York will make polluters pay for climate change damage
New York State is establishing a “Climate Superfund” that will make companies that release large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions financially responsible for some of the damage that climate change caused to the state’s infrastructure, communities and ecosystems.
On Thursday, Gov. Kathy Hochul, signed a bill into law requiring large fossil fuel companies to “pay for critical projects that protect New Yorkers.” Citing the hundreds of billions of dollars the state will have to spend on climate adaptation through 2050, the law requires that the companies responsible for most carbon emissions, more than a billion metric tons, between 2000-2018 pay nearly $3 billion annually for the next 25 years.
“With nearly every record rainfall, heatwave, and coastal storm, New Yorkers are increasingly burdened with billions of dollars in health, safety, and environmental consequences due to polluters that have historically harmed our environment,” Hochul said in a press statement.
The new law calls climate change “an immediate, grave threat to the state’s communities, environment, and economy.” According to NASA, 97% of climate scientists believe human activity, specifically burning fossil fuels, is the primary driver of climate change and global warming. And those changes to the climate have resulted in more intense and more frequent extreme weather events.
The New York legislature said the “Climate Superfund” was now possible because scientific research enables them “to determine with great accuracy the share of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere by specific fossil fuel companies over the last 70 years or more, making it possible to assign liability to and require compensation from companies commensurate with their emissions during a given time period.”
“The governor’s approval of the Climate Change Superfund Act is a welcome holiday gift for New York taxpayers,” said Blair Horner, executive director of the New York Public Interest Research Group, in a statement. “Until her approval, New York taxpayers were 100% on the financial hook for climate costs. Now Big Oil will pay for much of the damages that they helped cause.”
The state anticipates collecting up to $75 billion over 25 years, and the law requires that at least 35% of the funds go to disadvantaged communities.
New York State Senator Liz Krueger said the new legislation was modeled after the federal Superfund law that requires polluters to pay for toxic waste cleanups.
But not everyone is cheering the new legislation. In a letter to Gov. Hochul, urging her to veto the bill, the Business Council of New York State, which represents more than 3,000 companies, chambers of commerce and associations, wrote, “The bill discriminates by targeting only the largest fossil fuel extraction and processing firms, including petroleum, natural gas, and coal.”
The Council added, “This legislation ignores the near universal use and benefits associated with fossil fuel.” They argued that the new law would do nothing to address what they said is the primary cause of carbon emissions: “consumption.”
There are still a lot of specifics that have yet to be determined, and the state’s Department of Environmental Conservation is responsible for figuring out the program’s details over the next few years. With legal challenges all but certain, it will be some time before the companies actually have to pay up.
-ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser
Could climate change bring more earthquakes?
Earthquakes are usually triggered by seismic activity deep beneath the Earth’s surface and far beyond the influence of atmospheric conditions. However, according to new research, there may be instances where climate change can impact seismic activity.
A recent Colorado State University study suggests that melting glaciers could impact earthquake activity in some areas. Researchers analyzed southern Colorado’s Sangre de Cristo Mountains during the last ice age. They found the active fault responsible for triggering earthquakes was held in place by the weight of glaciers sitting on top of it.
Thousands of years ago, as the last ice age ended and the planet began to naturally warm, glaciers in this region began to melt. The study found that as the ice melted, there was less pressure on the quake-prone fault, which triggered an increase in earthquake activity. Basically, the glacier was holding the fault in place — less ice, less weight.
There is limited scientific evidence linking changes in Earth’s climate to earthquake activity. Still, this study demonstrates that, in some cases, climate-related events, like melting glaciers, could influence seismic events.
Sean Gallen, Geosciences associate professor and senior author of the study, highlights that this research helps us better understand the factors that can drive earthquakes.
Even though the study focused on investigating links between Earth’s natural climate variability (an ice age) and seismic activity, this research shows how other glacier-adjacent faults worldwide could respond as greenhouse gas emissions accelerate global warming.
As human-amplified climate change continues to drive global glacier melt, earthquake activity along these faults could increase as glaciers recede.
“We see this in the rapid mountain glacial retreats in Alaska, the Himalayas and the Alps,” said Cece Hurtado, an author of the study. “In many of these regions, there are also active tectonics, and this work demonstrates that as climate change alters ice and water loads, tectonically active areas might see more frequent fault movements and earthquakes due to rapidly changing stress conditions.”
Yauhen Yerchak/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
(LONDON and BELGRADE) — A team of Lithuanian investigators were beginning their probe into Monday’s deadly cargo plane crash near the country’s capital, with aid expected from transportation investigators from the United States.
The jet crashed on Monday morning less than a mile from the runway at Vilnius International Airport, officials said. One of the four people onboard was killed in the crash, local officials said.
Lithuanian police and prosecutors have opened a “pre-trial” investigation into the crash, according to Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, whose office held a meeting late Monday on the government response.
The government has ordered an investigation under the country’s criminal code, which calls for probes into “‘Improper maintenance or repair of vehicles or roads, or of equipment thereon,’ which provides for liability in the event of loss of life, serious injury to persons or very serious damage to property,” the prime minister’s office said.
“I urge everyone to have confidence in the investigating authorities’ ability to conduct a thorough and professional investigation within an optimal timeframe,” Šimonytė said in a statement. “Only these investigations will uncover the true causes of the incident—speculation and guesswork will not help establish the truth.”
The investigation will be led by the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Lithuania Transport Accident and Incident Investigation Division, with aid from the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board, the board said on Monday.
The results of that investigation are expected to be made public, the NTSB said.
The DHL cargo plane — a Boeing 737-476 operated by Swiftair — had flown into Lithuania from Germany. it crashed in a residential area in Liepkalnis, on the outskirts of the capital, Vilnius, the Lithuanian airport authority said in a statement posted on social media on Monday.
One of the pilots was pronounced dead at the scene and the other was transferred to a local hospital in critical condition, Bozena Jerenkovic, a medical doctor who was part of the emergency team on site, told ABC News on Monday. It appeared that the cockpit had been separated from the plane’s fuselage, she added.
The Lithuanian National Crisis Management Center confirmed to ABC News that the pilot is in critical condition. The other two people who were injured in the crash are doing OK, the center said.
ABC News has reached out to Bonn, Germany-based DHL for comment.
ABC News’ Joe Simonetti and Melissa Gaffney contributed to this report.
Ukraine State Emergency Service/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images
(LONDON and KYIV) — Russia on Thursday launched what officials in Kyiv said was an intercontinental ballistic missile toward southeastern Ukraine, but a U.S. official told ABC News that Russia launched “an experimental medium-range ballistic missile against Ukraine” near Dnipro.
The official said the United States briefed Ukraine and other close allies and partners in recent days on Russia’s possible use of this weapon in order to help them prepare. According to the official, Russia likely only possesses “a handful” of these experimental missiles.
Two U.S. officials previously told ABC News it was not an ICBM but instead an intermediate-range ballistic missile, or IRBM.
The launch raises the prospect of nuclear weapons; IRBMs or ICBMs can both be equipped with nuclear warheads. A U.S. official confirmed to ABC News that the ballistic missile Russia fired at Dnipro contained MIRVs, or multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, meaning it had multiple warheads that hit the target. MIRV technology is used in ICBMs to use multiple nuclear warheads atop the missile so they can strike multiple targets. The missile used Thursday did not carry nuclear warheads.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in remarks Thursday following the missile launch, said Russia has the right to use its weapons against the military facilities of countries employing their weapons against Russia.
“We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military objects of those countries that allow to use their own weapons against our objects. In the event of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond decisively and in a mirror manner,” Putin said.
Putin said Russia used “one of the newest Russian medium-range missile systems” in an attack on Ukraine, adding that it was a “ballistic missile with a non-nuclear hypersonic equipment” and that the “test was successful.”
Russia warned the U.S. 30 minutes before the launch of its new “Oreshnik” missile against targets in Dnipro, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian news outlet TASS.
The Kremlin announced earlier this week that Putin had updated the country’s nuclear doctrine, a move that lowered the bar for Russia to respond with nuclear weapons. Russian ICBMs are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, although it appeared the missile fired on Thursday was not equipped with one.
Ukraine’s military was “95% sure” the strike on Thursday was with an ICBM, a Ukrainian official told ABC News, but added that they were still examining the missile parts on the ground and had not yet reached a final conclusion.
“Today it was a new Russian missile. All the parameters: speed, altitude — match those of an intercontinental ballistic missile,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a statement on social media. “All expert evaluations are underway.”
The Ukrainian Air Force announced Thursday morning it had tracked the launch of the ICBM, along with six additional missiles, all of which were targeting the Dnipro region. The ICBM appeared to have been launched from the Astrahan region, in Russia’s southwest, Ukrainian military officials said.
All of the missiles were launched in about two hours, beginning at about 5 a.m. local time, Ukraine said.
All were targeted at businesses and critical infrastructure, but only the missile that Ukraine identified as an ICBM struck the city, Ukraine said. The six other missiles were shot down. There were no reports of casualties or significant damage, officials said.
The U.S. officials said the assessment of the launch, the type of missile and warhead, and the damage in Dnipro was continuing. The distance from what Ukraine said was the launch point to the strike location in Dnipro is about 600 miles, a distance shorter than what an ICBM would be expected to travel.
Two experts told ABC News the projectile, seen in video circulating online, looks likely to be “a ballistic missile with MIRV-ed capabilities.”
The launch of an ICBM, if confirmed as such, would arrive amid concerns that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could further escalate. This week, Ukraine’s military for the first time launched U.S.-made ATACMS missiles toward targets within Russia, days after U.S. President Joe Biden allowed for such use of the long-range weapons.
Putin, in his remarks Thursday, blamed the U.S. for escalating the conflict, saying: “I would like to emphasize once again that it was not Russia, but the United States that destroyed the international security system. And by continuing to fight, cling to their hegemony, they are pushing the whole world into a global conflict.”
Kyiv on Tuesday launched six of the ATACMS at targets within Russian territory, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
Zelenskyy said he would not confirm if Ukraine had used ATACMS to conduct a strike on an ammunition depot in the Bryansk region of Russia, but said Ukraine has ATACMS and “will use all of these” against Russia.
Within hours of Russia announcing it had struck down five of the ATACMS on Tuesday, the Kremlin announced that Putin had updated the country’s nuclear doctrine.
Following that warning, Ukraine on Wednesday fired long-range British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia for the first time, a Ukrainian military unit involved in the operation told ABC News. At least 10 of those missiles hit an estate in the village of Marino, the unit said.
They were targeting a command post where North Korean army generals and officers were present, the unit said. More than 10,000 North Korean troops are said to be operating alongside Russian forces in the Kursk region.
Ukraine’s 413th Separate Unmanned Systems Battalion, which helped provide fire control for the strikes, told ABC News that there was intelligence showing high-ranking North Koreans were present.
Zelenskyy cast the Russian strike on Thursday as a result of Russia and its leader being “terrified.”
“Obviously, Putin is terrified when normal life simply exists next to him. When people simply have dignity. When a country simply wants to be and has the right to be independent,” Zelenskyy said. “Putin is doing whatever it takes to prevent his neighbor from breaking free of his grasp.”
ABC News’ Joe Simonetti, Lauren Minore, Yulia Drozd, Natasha Popova, Tanya Stukalova and Ellie Kaufman contributed to this report.
