Tens of millions of early votes have been cast. What could it mean for Election Day?
Marilyn Nieves/Getty Images
(WASHINGTON) — As Election Day nears, tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots throughout the country.
Whether through mail-in ballots or early in-person polling stations, more than 68 million Americans, roughly 43% of the 2020 turnout, had voted against standing in line on Election Day as of Friday afternoon, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
Academic experts, reporters and pundits have been going through basic and limited data gleaned from the early voting numbers, trying to get clues about next week’s outcome.
That picture, however, is not exactly black and white, according to Charles Stewart, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s election data science lab.
“It’s like talking about the weather,” he said. “The candidates, the press, etcetera — really are trying to draw conclusions just on the face value of the data, but there really isn’t a lot there to say who is winning.”
That said, Stewart said the early voting data does provide some insights when it comes to this year’s voting patterns and overall turnout — indicators that could help explain how the election turns out.
A flip in the ways people early vote
Voting trends have shown that more people have been choosing to cast their ballots before Election Day, and this has increased in numbers over the last 30 years, but 2020 turned out to be a major outlier, according to Stewart.
In the last presidential election, 69% of the 158 million total votes were cast before Election Day either through the mail, which included mail ballots dropped off in person, or at early voting poll sites, according to data from MIT.
Some 43% of the 2020 early votes came from mail ballots, according to the data.
Stewart said the COVID-19 pandemic forced many voters, who were already heavily engaged and wanted to be safe, to opt into using mail ballots or smaller voting lines if available.
“There was a speculation of what would happen with the shift once the pandemic was over,” he said.
However, in this year’s early voting there’s been a drop in voters choosing mail-in voting, Stewart said.
“The main trend I’m seeing is that the interest of voting by mail has shifted to voting in-person,” Stewart said.
He noted that shift is apparent in Georgia, which has seen record early voting numbers, with over 3.8 million ballots cast as of Friday. Roughly 92% of those were cast at in-person polling places and the rest via mail, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.
Stewart said some states, including swing states Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, only offer early voting through in-person absentee options. Under this option, a voter must request an absentee ballot, fill it out, and then deposit it in either a ballot box or at a designated location, and they are counted as a mail ballot voter.
Some voters may not have the time or energy to go through those extra steps to cast their ballots early, and are likely going to vote in-person Stewart said.
“If you have to vote early in person you have to figure out where that precinct is but you have to find out which is closer to your house or errands. With voting by mail, you have to take the effort to apply, to fill it out and return it and hope that the mail is delivered on time,” he said. “With Election Day voting you likely have a polling site that is much closer to you.”
Early-voting method preference hasn’t the only thing that’s seen a flip, according to Stewart.
Partisan numbers do not give any indication of outcome
Stewart said historical trends show that the majority of early voters made their decisions a long time ago and are likely politically active.
This year’s data shows that to be the case, he said, bit noted a major change in partisan turnout in several battleground states, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
Registered Republicans have seen a higher early voting turnout in battlegrounds Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina in this election compared to 2024 as of Friday, according to the data.
Typically, Democrats have had an advantage in early voting. However, Trump has pushed his supporters to cast their vote earlier and that appears to have an impact, Stewart said.
While Republican officials have been touting these higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart warned there is more nuance to the data.
He noted it shows, so far, that a large number of the registered Republicans who cast their votes eary came from people who voted on Election Day in 2020 and were not new voters.
Stewart said this would mean there would be fewer Republican voters casting their ballots on Election Day and thus their votes may not be reported until much later on election night or even for days afterward.
In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic tallies rise throughout the election night and into the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.
That mirage and “blue wave” could be muted this time around, Stewart said.
“Whatever the blue shift is, there will probably be less of a steep slope to it,” he said.
What do gender, race say about the early vote
Democrats have been touting the gender gap as a factor in their favor in the early voting numbers, as over 54% of women have cast their vote as of Friday, according to the University of Florida data.
Stewart said that assumption is not noteworthy.
Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, going as far back as 1980, according to the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.
Stewart said this is also true of early voters.
“It’s not always obvious to the public that there’s always been a gender gap,” he said.In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic tallies rise throughout the election night and into the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.
That mirage and “blue wave” could be muted this time around, Stewart said.
“Whatever the blue shift is, there will probably be less of a steep slope to it,” he said.
What do gender, race say about the early vote
Democrats have been touting the gender gap as a factor in their favor in the early voting numbers, as over 54% of women have cast their vote as of Friday, according to the University of Florida data.
Stewart said that assumption is not noteworthy.
Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, going as far back as 1980, according to the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.
Stewart said this is also true of early voters.
“It’s not always obvious to the public that there’s always been a gender gap,” he said.
When it comes to race, white voters are more likely to cast their votes by mail than Black voters, according to the MIT data.
Stewart said this stems from traditions going back to the civil rights movement.
“African Americans fought and sometimes died for being able to march into the voting booth. That’s been instilled in the community,” he said.
This practice is one factor in large numbers of Black voters heading to in-person early voting poll sites in states such as Georgia and South Carolina, where that option is available.
Churches, civil rights groups and other organizations with ties to the Black community have been pushing voters to head to the early voting polls, using campaigns such as “souls to the polls” so that they can avoid any complications on Election Day.
Groups in Georgia in particular have stressed voting early to circumvent some of the restrictive voting laws that have been put in place since the 2020 election.
As of Friday evening, more than 1 million Black voters have cast their ballots, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.
“The mobilization efforts have clearly proven effective,” Stewart said.
Signs point to high turnout
Stewart said the one definite conclusion that can be drawn from the early voting data is that this year’s overall turnout will be “on par” with 2020’s, which was the highest voter turnout by percentage in over 100 years.
“It could be the high 160 (million),” he estimated.
Stewart said that the early-voting trends have shown that voters under 25 have not yet voted and they will typically line up on Election Day.
“Those populations are really heavily represented on Election Day,” he said.
Stewart reiterated that with the pandemic over, a good number of the 2020 early voters will likely shift back to Election Day voting, especially if it presents itself as the easier option for their locations and schedules.
As for the future, Steward predicted that the rise in Republican voters voting early will continue in future cycles along with the overall trend of the electorate opting for early voting.
“The data is showing this organic increase in early voting even after the pandemic,” he said. “Voters want more options, and they will seriously consider voting if they have more choices.”
(WILMINGTON, N.C.) — Former President Donald Trump is returning to the key battleground state of North Carolina on Saturday amid a major controversy revolving around North Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who the former president had previously supported and called “Martin Luther King on steroids.”
Robinson, the sitting Republican lieutenant governor of North Carolina, allegedly posted inflammatory comments on a message board of a pornography website more than a decade ago, according to a report out Thursday from CNN.
Robinson is not expected to attend Saturday’s rally, though sources caution plans could always change. Trump has not given any indication that he intends to pull his endorsement of Robinson.
The controversy has become a new headache for Trump in the final stretch of the 2024 election cycle.
Trump has campaigned for Robinson multiple times this election cycle, including inviting him to speak at his rallies in North Carolina this year and hosting him at his Mar-a-Lago estate for a fundraiser last year. Also, Trump’s advisers are keenly aware just how important battleground North Carolina is for the former president’s victory in November.
People close to the former president told ABC News that they were bracing for the Robinson story on Thursday. Sources said the campaign was planning to put more distance between Trump and Robinson, but initially did not have plans to call on him to drop out.
“President Trump’s campaign is focused on winning the White House and saving this country. North Carolina is a vital part of that plan,” Trump campaign’s National Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt wrote in a statement to ABC News in response to allegations about Robinson.
When it comes to winning North Carolina, the Trump campaign “will not take our eye off the ball,” Leavitt said.
Trump has yet to make any direct comment on the Robinson controversy. His running mate Sen. JD Vance dodged reporters’ questions about it on Thursday, later, in a post on X, he repeated attacks on Harris as his “comment on Mark Robinson.”
Among the controversial comments Robinson allegedly made online many years ago, according to CNN’s reporting, is one comment where he allegedly referred to himself as a “black NAZI!” CNN reports the comments were made by Robinson between 2008-2012 under the username “minisoldr” on “Nude Africa,” a pornographic website that includes a message board.
ABC News has not confirmed this reporting or the online username alleged to be linked to him.
Robinson has denied he made the comments and claimed the allegations were “salacious tabloid lies.” Defending his character, Robinson vowed to stay in the race as the deadline to drop out as a candidate in North Carolina approached on Thursday.
While Robinson’s alleged past comments online have received a lot of attention, so too have Trump’s past comments in support of Robinson.
“This is Martin Luther King on steroids,” Trump said at a rally in March 2024 while campaigning in Greensboro, North Carolina.
Taking the stage after Robinson’s speech, Trump said, “I told that to Mark. I said, ‘I think you’re better than Martin Luther King. I think you are Martin Luther King times two.'”
Trump later said he was “outstanding” and set to “be the next governor” of North Carolina.
In December 2023, at a private Mar-a-Lago fundraiser supporting Robinson, Trump said people should “cherish” Robinson like a “fine wine.”
“We have to cherish Mark. We have to cherish him. It’s like a fine wine, because that’s what you have, you have a fine wine,” Trump said in a social media video posted by North Carolina politician Robert Ward, who attended the fundraiser.
Trump further called Robinson an “outstanding person” that he “got to know fairly quickly,” asking donors gathered at his property to donate to Robinson and to get out and vote because he has a “tough opponent.”
“You got to help him financially, because you all people that have a lot of money — I know, rich as hell. So anything you were going to do, quadruple it,” Trump said.
Trump campaigned with Robinson twice at his North Carolina rallies in August. In Asheville, on Aug. 14, Robinson was the final speaker of the pre-programming prior to Trump’s arrival, and Trump called him a “good man” and a “fighter” in a relatively short shout out.
“I want to thank a very good man, and he’s in there fighting,” Trump said about Robinson. “… We know he’s a fighter. The next governor of North Carolina, Mark Robinson. Thanks, Mark. This is Mrs. Robinson. Thank you. They’re a great, great couple. Thank you both.”
In Asheboro, on Aug. 21, Robinson did not speak on stage, but Trump gave him a shout out during his speech and briefly brought him on stage.
The Harris campaign has been capitalizing on Trump and Robinson’s relationship on social media, firing off a series of posts featuring Trump’s praising past comments on Robinson and calling them “best friends.”
On Friday, the Harris campaign released a new ad that seeks to tie Trump to Robinson, saying “they’re both wrong for North Carolina.”
The ad, which will air in North Carolina, features past clips of Trump praising Robinson. The 30-second spot also highlights Robinson’s hard-line comments on abortion.
The ad does not include the alleged comments and conduct outlined in CNN’s article.
ABC News’ Fritz Farrow, Gabriella Abdul-Hakim and Will McDuffie contributed to this report.
Special Counsel Jack Smith (L); former President Donald Trump (R) (MANDEL NGANJEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images)
(WASHINGTON) — The special counsel’s new indictment charging former President Donald Trump for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election made changes large and small to accommodate the Supreme Court’s landmark ruling on presidential immunity.
An indictment that once offered vivid details of Trump’s effort to enlist federal officials in his scheme to overturn the election removed any mention of the Department of Justice. Detailed accounts of how advisers corrected Trump about his claims of election fraud are gone along with Trump’s statements to his inner circle as rioters stormed the Capitol.
Prosecutors also made minor changes, such as describing Trump as “a candidate for President of the United States” rather than “the forty-fifth President of the United States” in the indictment’s opening lines. Trump’s official statements from within the White House were subtly removed, while other examples were framed as unofficial or “in his capacity as a candidate for office.”
“The Defendant had no official responsibilities related to the certification proceeding, but he did have a personal interest as a candidate in being named the winner of the election,” the new indictment said.
Special Counsel Jack Smith presented evidence to a new grand jury, which returned an indictment charging Trump with the same four criminal offenses he originally faced.
The indictment removes details about Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, including refusing to call off rioters.
The superseding indictment removes once-damning allegations about Trump’s refusal to act as rioters stormed the Capitol and his overall behavior as described by advisers.
According to the original indictment, Trump refused to approve a message directing rioters to leave the Capitol despite the urging of senior officials, including the White House counsel and his chief of staff.
Later that day, Trump allegedly resisted former House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy’s plea to call off rioters.
“The Defendant told the Minority Leader that the crowd at the Capitol was more upset about the election than the Minority Leader was,” the indictment said.
According to the original indictment, Trump also remarked to advisers in the Oval Office that “this is what happens when they try to steal an election. These people are angry. These people are really angry about it. This is what happens.”
On the evening of Jan. 6, Trump also rejected the request of his White House Counsel to withdraw any objections to the certification of the election, the indictment said.
The superseding indictment appears to have streamlined its account of Trump’s behavior while omitting the statements once included in the original indictment.
“He spent much of the afternoon reviewing Twitter on his phone, while the television in the dining room showed live events at the Capitol,” the superseding indictment said.
The indictment removes allegations about Trump’s use of the Department of Justice.
Compared to the original indictment, Tuesday’s superseding indictment removed five pages of allegations detailing how Trump allegedly used the Department of Justice to further his claims of election fraud.
Prosecutors originally alleged that Trump attempted to use the Department of Justice to further false claims of election fraud in key states to give Trump’s “lies the backing of the federal government.”
When DOJ officials rebutted Trump’s claims that the Justice Department could alter the outcome of the election, Trump allegedly responded, “Just say that the election was corrupt and leave the rest to me and the Republican congressmen,” the original indictment said.
The indictment originally detailed how Trump allegedly worked with co-conspirator four — identified by ABC News as former Assistant Attorney General Jeffrey Clark — to have the Department of Justice send a letter to key states falsely claiming that the Justice Department “identified significant concerns that may have impacted the outcome of the election.” Trump allegedly planned to make Clark his acting attorney general in the final days of his presidency but was stopped when warned that such a move would result in mass resignations.
Once a core pillar of the case against Trump, all mentions of the Justice Department have been removed from the new indictment.
The indictment attempts to salvage key evidence.
The new indictment appears to make minor changes to salvage key evidence, including Trump’s call to Georgia officials about finding votes and Vice President Mike Pence’s notes.
The new indictment still describes Trump’s Jan. 2, 2021, phone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, where Trump said he wanted “to find 11,780 votes” but added context to Meadows’ role in the call.
“On January 2, four days before Congress’s certification proceeding, the Defendant, his Chief of Staff – who sometimes handled private and Campaign-related logistics for the Defendant – and private attorneys involved in the lawsuit against Georgia’s Secretary of State called the Secretary of State,” the superseding indictment said.
The indictment still mentions Vice President Pence’s contemporaneous notes of a key meeting with Trump about the proposed plan to reject legitimate electors on Jan. 6.
“Did you hear that? Even your own counsel is not saying I have that authority,” Pence told Trump.
The new indictment only makes slight changes to the section referencing the notes, cutting a line that the “White House Counsel previously had pushed back on the Defendant’s false claims of election fraud.”
The new indictment also removes mention of a Dec. 29 phone call between Pence and Trump — memorialized in Pence’s notes — when the former president claimed the “Justice Dept [was] finding major infractions.”
The indictment overtly frames some of Trump’s statements as unofficial.
Prosecutors appear to have added phrases throughout the indictment to frame Trump’s statements as unofficial ones made as a candidate for office rather than official statements as president.
The indictment notably describes Trump’s statements at the Ellipse rally on Jan. 6 as a “campaign speech.”
Old Indictment: On January 6, the Defendant publicly repeated the knowingly false claim that 36,000 non-citizens had voted in Arizona.
New Indictment: In his Campaign speech on January 6, the Defendant publicly repeated the knowingly false claim that 36,000 non-citizens had voted in Arizona.
In two instances in the new indictment, prosecutors framed Trump’s actions as conduct made “in his capacity as a candidate for office.”
The indictment offers fewer details about officials correcting Trump on claims of voter fraud.
The original indictment previously went to lengths to detail how Trump’s closest advisers — including the vice president, members of the Department of Justice, the director of National Intelligence, and several White House attorneys — directly told the then-president that his claims of voter fraud were false.
The superseding indictment removes mention of federal officials notifying Trump that his claims were false, briefly mentioning Vice President Pence as Trump’s “own running mate.”
“The Defendant was on notice that his claims were untrue,” the new indictment said. “He was told so by those most invested in his re-election, including his own running mate and his campaign staff.”
The indictment originally detailed three instances in December 2020 when officials, including the acting attorney general and chief of staff, told Trump that his claims of fraud in Georgia — including at the Cobb County Civic Center and State Farm Arena — were false. The new indictment omits those details.
The indictment omits some of Trump’s statements from behind White House podiums or referencing the White House.
The superseding indictment surgically removes statements Trump made from within the White House behind official podiums.
In two instances from within the White House, Trump made remarks falsely alleging voter fraud in Michigan.
“In Detroit, there were hours of unexplained delay in delivering many of the votes for counting. The final batch did not arrive until four in the morning and—even though the polls closed at eight o’clock,” Trump said in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room on November 5, 2020.
Unlike other instances in the indictment in which prosecutors clarified were made in Trump’s capacity as a candidate for office, Trump’s remarks made within the White House were struck from the indictment.
The indictment also removed mention of a January 5, 2021, Tweet when Trump told supporters heading to Washington, “We hear you (and love you) from the Oval Office.”
Reacting to the indictment, Trump issued a statement saying, “Smith, has brought a ridiculous new Indictment against me, which has all the problems of the old Indictment, and should be dismissed IMMEDIATELY.”
He also called it “an attempt to INTERFERE WITH THE ELECTION.”
Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, shared Trump’s sentiment, telling ABC News, “It looks like Jack Smith doing more of what he does, which is filing these absurd lawsuits in an effort to influence the election.”
(NEW YORK) — The vice-presidential debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance could prove to be a major factor in the presidential election — given how close the race is and its potential impact with undecided voters.
The 90-minute CBS News showdown starts at 9 p.m. ET in New York City. ABC News Digital will live blog throughout the day and evening, pre-debate coverage will air at 8 p.m. on the ABC network and stream on ABC News Live — followed by the debate itself and post-debate analysis.
Here’s how the news is developing:
Claim: Walz: ‘Their Project 2025 is going to have a registry of pregnancies.’
Fact Check: Needs context
Walz has falsely claimed that Project 2025 will require pregnant women to register with a new federal agency designed to monitor their pregnancies. While the Project 2025 policy proposal is firmly against abortion, it does not call for monitoring pregnancies. It does, however, call for states to track abortions more meticulously than current CDC rules mandate, or else face punishment like cuts to federal funding.
Vance and Trump have also both said that Project 2025 is not associated with their campaign.
It’s worth noting, however, that Trump told Time Magazine in April that states could decide to start monitoring pregnancies as a way to track illegal abortions, saying that overturning Roe vs. Wade returned those decisions to the states.
“I think they might do that. Again, you’ll have to speak to the individual states. Look, Roe v. Wade was all about bringing it back to the states,” he told Time.
More broadly on the subject of abortion, Project 2025 does call for an end to the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, a widely used abortion medication, and calls for a revival of a 150-year-old law that bans the shipment of abortion related equipment and medicine from being sent via the U.S. Postal Service, which would make it much more difficult for women who are taking the drug legally to access the care.
In August, Trump signaled he was open to revoking mifepristone access during a press conference in Mar-A-Lago, when he responded to a reporter’s question about whether he would direct the FDA to ban the drug. “You could do things that … would supplement. Absolutely. And those things are pretty open and humane,” Trump said, while also emphasizing at that conference that he wanted to “give everybody a vote” on the issue.
When asked to clarify those remarks, Trump’s campaign pointed to the former President’s belief that abortion laws should be left to the states. The former President has also said he would not sign a federal abortion ban into law.
—Justin Fishel
Voters trust Harris much more on abortion
Vance said a few times in this debate that Republicans need to “win back people’s trust” on the issue of abortion, and the polls support that.
Abortion is important to many voters this cycle, especially women and Democrats. And they trust Harris more than Trump on the issue. In an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll from August, they gave Harris a 12 point lead on the issue over Trump.
Since the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, more Americans have also expanded their view of abortion rights and don’t want states to put limits on the procedure. KFF has found that nearly three-quarters of reproductive-age women oppose leaving abortion access up to the states, as Trump and Vance have said they support.
Democrats have been working in states across the country to paint Republican candidates as too extreme on the issue, and are hoping it drives voters to the polls as it has the past two years.
—538’s Monica Potts
Claim: Vance: ‘I never supported a national ban. I did during when I was running for Senate in 2022 talk about setting some minimum national standard.’
Fact Check: False
When running for Senate in 2022, Vance signaled support for a bill introduced by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham that would ban abortion after 15 weeks nationwide. Vance called it “totally reasonable to say you cannot abort a baby, especially for elective reasons, after 15 weeks of gestation.”
Also during his 2022 Senate race, Vance said he supported setting “some minimum national standard” in an interview with USA Today.
—Cheyenne Haslett
Walz says they should find ‘common ground’ on housing, Vance blames immigrants
At times getting personal about home ownership, Walz defended Harris’ plan to build three million new homes.
“I think we should be able to find some common ground,” Walz said. “But we can’t blame immigrants for the only reason that’s not the case that’s happening in many cities, the fact of the matter is, is that we don’t have enough naturally affording affordable housing, but we can make sure that the government’s there to help kick start it.”
Vance continued to claim illegal immigration is responsible for higher prices.
“Tim just said something that I agree with. We don’t want to blame immigrants for higher housing prices, but we do want to blame Kamala Harris for letting in millions of illegal aliens into this country, which does drive up cost,” he said.
CBS News’ moderators then asked Vance for evidence that illegal immigration is leading to higher home prices. He said there was a “Federal Reserve” study he said he would share after the debate but did not elaborate.
Candidates differ with note-taking, body language, during debate
Walz is writing quite a lot during the debate.
Right off the bat, during first question to him, Walz took a few notes. Then, during Vance’s first and second answers, Walz continued to take additional notes during each of Vance’s answers.
Vance did not seem to pick up his pen until about 45 minutes in, but he has faced Walz almost continuously while Walz has been speaking.
When it comes to body language, Walz is rocking his weight back and forth on his feet, side to side. He speaks with his hands, sometimes his hands are on the podium, and sometimes his hands are closed with his arms down.
Vance, in contrast, has hardly moved his hands from both sides of the podium and is standing very still.
-ABC News’ MaryAlice Parks
Claim: Vance says Walz ended protections in Minnesota for babies born alive
Infanticide, the crime of killing a child within a year of its birth, is illegal in all U.S. states. In May 2023, Walz, as Minnesota governor, signed legislation updating a state law for “infants who are born alive.” This change did not alter the fact that under state law, these babies are protected.
Previously, state law said, “All reasonable measures consistent with good medical practice, including the compilation of appropriate medical records, shall be taken by the responsible medical personnel to preserve the life and health of the born alive infant.”
The law was updated to instead say medical personnel must “care for the infant who is born alive.” The law’s updated version also kept the provision that said, “An infant who is born alive shall be fully recognized as a human person, and accorded immediate protection under the law.”
Every person who is born has legal protections under federal and state laws, experts told PolitiFact.
—PolitiFact’s Sara Swann
Walz, Vance share friendly smile during break
Just before cameras started to roll for the next section of the debate, Walz entered the stage again with about 45 seconds to go.
Vance, though, cut it close and rushed back onstage right before the end of the break. As the stagehand announced, “10 seconds.” He was smiling.
The two men smiled at each other as the break ended.
-ABC News’ MayAlice Parks
Claim: Walz was in China during the Tiananmen Square Massacre in Beijing
Fact Check: False
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has repeatedly claimed he was in China during the Tiananmen Square, Beijing, protests during his year-long stint as a high school teacher in the southeastern Chinese town of Foshan starting in 1989.
Tonight he admitted that was false, saying he “misspoke” earlier, though he travelled to China in the months after the protests.
The school Walz taught at was near Hong Kong. He was there as part of the WorldTeach program, a nonprofit affiliated with Harvard University. But according to local newspaper clipping obtained by ABC News, it appears he did not actually travel to the country until August 1989,
The pro-democracy protests, which led to a deadly government crackdown by the Chinese government, lasted from April 15 to June 4, 1989 — ending about two months ahead of Walz’s travel to the country.
An article in the Chadron Record in Chadron, Nebraska dated August 11, 1989, said that Walz, a graduate of Chadron State College, “will leave Sunday enroute to China, where he will teach English and American history during the next year.”
Walz has spoken about Tiananmen Square repeatedly— why he supported the protests and why he stayed to be a witness.
As recently as in February, Walz said during an episode of the podcast “Pod Save America” that he was in Hong Kong during the protests. “I was in Hong Kong when it happened – I was in Hong Kong on June 4th when Tiananmen happened … Quite a few of our folks decided not to go in,” he said, further expanding on the experience. “There was a lot of Europeans in Hong Kong [saying] don’t do this, don’t go, don’t support them in this, and my thinking at the time was … what a golden opportunity to go tell how it was. And I did have a lot of freedom to do that, taught American history and could tell the story.”
Walz, while serving in Congress as ranking member on the Executive Commission on China, said at a 2014 congressional hearing marking 25 years since the massacre that “as the events were unfolding, several of us went in.”
“I will talk a lot,” Walz said tonight. “I will get caught up in the rhetoric. But being there, the impact it made, the difference it made in my life. I learned a lot about China.”
—Isabella Murray & Justin Fishel
Walz warns of dangers of GOP plans for reproductive rights
Walz talked about the dangers that women have faced since Roe. v Wade was overturned and claimed that one of Project 2025’s policies was to have a registry of pregnancies.
“It’s going to make it more difficult if not impossible, to get contraception and limit access, if not eliminate access to infertility treatments,” he said.
Vance denied the claims and reiterated his claims that he wanted to make America “pro-family.”
“And I want to talk about this issue because I know a lot of Americans care about and I know a lot of Americans don’t agree with everything that I’ve ever said on this topic,” he said.
When asked about his past comments on a national abortion ban, Vance denied that he was pushing for it, and again claimed that the Trump administration is trying to help families including “making childcare more accessible, making fertility treatments more accessible.”
Claim: ‘Iran, which launched this attack, has received over $100 billion in unfrozen assets thanks to the Kamala Harris administration. What do they use that money for? They use it to buy weapons that they’re now launching against our allies.’
Fact Check: False.
Vance might be referring to Iran’s claims that it was able to access $100 billion in previously frozen funds when it officially entered an Obama-era nuclear pact in 2016. However, the Obama White House estimated the total sanctions relief Iran could see was around $50 billion.
And while President Biden was vice president at the time the deal was brokered, Vice President Harris was California’s attorney general and had nothing to do with the agreement, which former President Trump exited in 2018.
Another GOP claim has been that Biden and Harris have allowed Iran to access $16 billion—not $100 billion—of its frozen revenue during Biden’s time in office. However, that assertion is also complicated.
In July 2023, the Biden administration expanded a waiver President Trump had initially put in place that allowed Iraq to purchase energy from Iran without running afoul of sanctions, according to the administration. That move greenlit some of roughly $10 billion in Iraqi payments to be transferred to third-party countries, primarily Oman, and used by Tehran to purchase non-sanctioned goods. According to U.S. officials, those funds are protected by a vetting system to ensure they cannot be put toward nefarious purposes.
Biden administration officials have testified that Iran has been able to withdraw at least some of the money held in Oman, but it’s unclear how much it has accessed and how that money was spent.
However, after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, the U.S. and Qatar reached an agreement to freeze the funds indefinitely, and a State Department official confirms that Iran has not been able to access any the $6 billion.
—Shannon Kingston
Walz pressed on Hong Kong discrepancy, says he ‘misspoke’
When asked why Walz previously said he was in Hong Kong during the Tiananmen Square massacre, Walz only glancingly responded, only saying that he’s “a knucklehead at times” and that his extensive travel to China “is about trying to understand the world, it’s about trying to do the best you can for the community.”
When pressed further, he conceded that he “misspoke” and that he was in Hong Kong the year of the massacre but not at the time it happened.
Vance’s past criticisms of Trump are highlighted. He defends himself
Walz repeatedly poked at Vance’s past criticisms of Trump and now the CBS moderator is asking him to explain
“Because I’ve always been open and sometimes, of course, I’ve disagreed with the president but I’ve also been extremely open about the fact that I was wrong about Donald Trump,” Vance said.
Vance blamed the media for its coverage of Trump and then said he changed his mind in part because of Trump’s record in office.
Candidates defend their economic plans
Both candidates were asked how their economic plans would avoid ballooning the deficit by trillions of dollars, citing projections by the Wharton School.
Walz said their plan is “simple.”
“Kamala Harris has said to do the things she wants to do, we’ll just ask the wealthiest to pay their fair share. When you do that, our system works best, more people are participating in it, and folks have the things that they need,” he said.
Vance pushed back against the analysis.
“A lot of those same economists attack Donald Trump’s plans, and they have PhDs, but they don’t have common sense and they don’t have wisdom,” Vance said, citing Trump’s record on tax cuts.
Vance lashes out at experts who say Trump’s economic plans will add to deficit
The Penn Wharton Budget Model has estimated that Trump’s tax and spending proposal will cause tax revenue to fall by $5.8 trillion and produce a similar amount of primary deficit over the course of a decade.
Vance lashed out at the experts, saying not to trust them but to trust “common sense.”
“A lot of the same economists attacked Donald Trump’s plans and they have PhDs but they don’t have common sense and they don’t have wisdom,” he said.
Walz immediately pushed back on Vance.
“Economists can’t be trusted. Science can’t be trusted. National security folks can’t be trusted. If you’re going to be president, you don’t have all the answers. Donald Trump believes he does. Pro-tip of the day is this, if you need heart surgery, listen to the people at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, not Donald Trump,” Walz said.
Walz invokes his faith while talking about his support for the border bill
Walz has never invoked his Christian faith on the campaign trail, but during the debate, he quoted a Bible verse while reiterating his support for the border bill that failed to pass through Congress this year.
“This bill gets it done in 90 days. Then you start to make a difference in this and you start to adhere to what we know, American principles. Look, I don’t talk about my faith a lot, but Matthew 25:40 talks about — to the least amongst us. You do unto me,” he said.
“I think that’s true of most Americans. They simply want order to it. This bill does it. It’s funded. It’s supported by the people who do it. And it lets us keep our dignity about how we treat other people,” he said.
-ABC News’ Isabella Murray
Claim: Vance: ‘We’ve got 20, 25 million illegal aliens who are here in the country’
During Biden’s administration, immigration officials have encountered immigrants illegally crossing the U.S. border around 10 million times. When accounting for “got aways” — people who aren’t stopped by border officials — the number rises to about 11.6 million.
But encounters don’t mean admissions. Encounters represent events, so one person who tries to cross the border twice counts for two encounters. Also, not everyone encountered is let into the country. The Department of Homeland Security estimates about 4.2 million encounters have led to expulsions or removals.
About 3.9 million people have been released into the U.S. to await immigration court hearings under Biden’s administration, Department of Homeland Security data shows.
—PolitiFact’s Maria Ramirez Uribe
Debate has largely been civil, but mics had to be cut off on one of the most contentious issues
The debate has largely been civil thus far, with each vice presidential candidate sharing their thoughts on how their running mate wants to solve key issues.
However, the microphones had to be cut by CBS News during a conversation about immigration — mainly, the legal status of Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio.
CBS News had initially said its moderators would not focus on fact-checking the candidates but would reserve the right to mute the candidates’ microphones.
Vance not backing down from Springfield, gets his microphone cut
Vance did not attempt to walk back or apologize for his baseless claims about Haitian migrants in Springfield.
While he didn’t repeat his most egregious falsehoods that the migrants are eating pets, Vance continued to state they were in the U.S. illegally — which they are not.
After the CBS moderator tried to move onto the economy, Vance repeatedly interrupted her. They then cut his microphone.
Vance sidesteps answering if Trump thinks climate change is a hoax
Walz said Trump has called climate change a hoax and then “joked that these things would make more beachfront property to be able to invest in.”
In referencing those remarks, the moderator asked Vance if he agreed. Vance did not directly answer, instead responding that Trump has said that if Democrats believed that climate change is serious, they would be increasing energy production in the U.S. “and that’s not what they’re doing.”
He also said Democrats use clean energy as a “slogan.”
Vance’s Appalachia controversy
Vance often evokes his personal connections to Appalachia, as he did just now talking about Hurricane Helene’s devastation of the region. But there’s more than a bit of controversy over this. While his grandparents were from Southeastern Kentucky, Vance himself grew up in Middletown, Ohio, as was the subject of his memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis.” Middletown itself is a small city of about 50,000 between Cincinnati and Dayton, far from Appalachia.
For his part, Walz was born in a small town in Nebraska — West Point, a town of about 3,500 — and has spent most of his career representing or living in the Midwest.
—538’s Monica Potts
Walz defends Harris’ immigration record
In response to Vance’s criticism of Harris’ immigration policy, Walz brought up the fact that Congress had a plan to address the migrant issue before Trump pushed Republicans to drop their support.
“Pass the bill, she’ll sign it,” Walz said.
Claim: Walz: ‘The person closest … to Donald Trump, said he is unfit for the highest office. That is Senator Vance.’
Fact Check: True
Vance has shifted his view toward President Trump since he first rose to prominence. Early in his career, Vance made a number of comments that were disparaging toward Trump. The specific comment that Walz seems to be referencing here is from a 2016 New York Times op-ed written by Vance ahead of the release of his book “Hillbilly Elegy.” In the op-ed, Vance wrote that “Mr. Trump is unfit for our nation’s highest office.” In years since the op-ed was published, Vance has said his views on Trump changed.
—Allison Pecorin
Vance pressed on mass deportation plans
Vance was pressed on his proposal to mass deport immigrants.
The senator argued that it was time to “stop the bleeding” contending Harris’ policies have allowed for more criminal activity.
He maintained that the first deportations should be those with criminal histories and the country should go back to Trump’s border policies.
Vance, Walz offer contrasting views on climate change when questioned on Hurricane Helene
Asked about climate change’s role in extreme weather amidst the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, Vance said Trump supports clean air and water, but expressed skepticism carbon emissions play a role in such weather events.
Vance’s comments come one day after Trump bluntly denied any connection between climate change and the devastating storm.
Walz, meanwhile, emphatically said during his response: “Climate change is real.”
Candidates pressed on Iran attack on Israel
Both candidates were pressed in the first question on whether they’d support a preemptive Israeli strike on Iran if it was determined that Tehran had secured a nuclear weapon.
Walz started off shaky, at one point confusing Israel and Iran but declaring that Harris would provide “steady leadership” while noting that at the first presidential debate, “80-year-old Donald Trump” was “talking about crowd sizes.”
Vance began by rattling off his biography before saying that “Donald Trump actually delivered stability in the world” by creating “deterrence” and “peace through strength.”
Walz responded that Trump’s “fickle leadership” helped Iran get near a weapon by backing out of a U.S.-led nuclear deal and that “we need the steady leadership that Kamala Harris is providing.”
Walz, Vance shake hands before debate begins
Walz and Vance shook hands before the debate started.
There was no handshake during the last vice presidential debate because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Candidates take the stage
Vance and Walz started at their podiums for tonight’s debate, so far the only scheduled matchup between the two vice presidential nominees.
Tonight’s viewers have largely already made up their mind
Debates are big deals, and it’s tempting to treat tonight like a potential game-changer in the campaign. But the reality is, most people who are planning to watch tonight aren’t still candidate-shopping. A YouGov/CBS News poll from late last week asked people who were planning to watch the debate why they were planning to do so; 71% said to root for their party’s candidate and 61% said to see if the other side made a mistake. Only 24% said to help them decide who to vote for.
—538’s Nathaniel Rakich
‘It’s game time’: Harris
Vice President Kamala Harris gave her running mate a good luck sendoff in a post on X less than 10 minutes before the debate started.
“@TimWalz, it’s game time,” she said. “I am excited for the country to see you in action.”
-ABC News’ Oren Oppenheim_
Springfield voters want ‘fewer memes, more solutions’ from the campaigns
The Ohio town was at the center of a political firestorm after Vance and Trump amplified false claims that Haitian migrants were eating people’s pets.
Voters there told ABC News’ Terry Moran what they want to hear from both campaigns in these final weeks of the race.
“They know the city is on a recovering path,” Moran said. “What they want is practical, pragmatic solutions to the problems they face. If there are going to be immigrants in this community that don’t speak the language, they need more help with the translation. They need more resources for primary care, for school teachers.”
“They want to hear fewer memes, more solutions.”
Read more about what unfolded in Springfield and Vance’s false claims about the migrants there.
Trump’s advice to Vance: ‘Have fun’
Former President Trump said he told his running mate to “have fun” ahead of tonight’s debate.
“He’s a smart guy. He’s been amazing. He’s been a real warrior,” Trump said of Vance during a campaign event in Milwaukee.
Gwen Walz sends husband well-wishes before debate
Minnesota first lady Gwen Walz sent her husband well-wishes in a post on X prior to the debate.
“Tim has always held true to the values he grew up with: loving your country, helping your neighbor, and fighting for what’s right.” she wrote.
“We’re so proud of you, Tim.”
Tim has always held true to the values he grew up with: loving your country, helping your neighbor, and fighting for what’s right.
Vance, at 40, is the first millennial on a major party ticket and has only been a politician for two years. He was elected to the Senate in 2022.
Walz, who is 60, has been in government for decades. He successfully ran for Congress in 2005 and served for six terms. He became the governor of Minnesota in 2018 and was reelected in 2022.
Still, some commonalities exist: both are military veterans and they each bring Midwest bona fides to their respective tickets.
Vance arrives at debate site
Vance has arrived at CBS Studios for the debate.
-ABC News’ Hannah Demissie
Walz arrives at CBS Studios in NYC for debate
Walz’s motorcade has arrived at CBS Studios in New York City for the debate. Vance is en route.
-ABC News’ Isabella Murray and Hannah Demissie
Political analysts weigh in on what Vance, Walz need to do to win
Reince Priebus and Donna Brazile joined ABC News Live to discuss what the goals are for Vance and Walz tonight.
“They have one thing to do: to show they can be president and to show the American people that they’re likable,” said Priebus, who served as chief of staff in the Trump White House.
Priebus also stressed the need to reach “uncommitted voters” and discuss what they want to hear. For Republicans, he said, the key issue is the economy, while Democrats will want to hear about health care.
Brazile, a Democratic Party operative, said Walz has to focus on how the Biden-Harris administration has lowered costs and tackled inflation while also bringing back manufacturing jobs.
“So I think that winner of this debate will be able to talk about those kitchen table issues that will be relatable to the American people. Let’s abort all the conversations about childless women and cats and dogs, and instead address those concerns,” she said.
Biden sends well-wishes to Walz in social media post
President Joe Biden sent well-wishes to Walz in a post on X from his campaign account on Tuesday night ahead of the CBS News vice presidential debate.
“Coach, I got your back tonight! Tonight, America will see the strong, principled, and effective leader I’ve known for years—and the contrast you and Kamala provide against the other team,” Biden wrote.
Coach, I got your back tonight!
Tonight, America will see the strong, principled, and effective leader I’ve known for years—and the contrast you and Kamala provide against the other team. pic.twitter.com/7ojASvwkjw
Stefanik, in spin room, says Iran’s latest attacks raise stakes of national security issues
Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., surrogating for Vance, predicted that Iran’s attacks Tuesday on Israel could be a part of the debate questions, saying the latest development in the Middle East has raised the stakes of the importance of national security issues.
“I think that as the American people are seeing the unprecedented hypersonic ballistic missile attack directly from Iran launched into multiple quantities, that raises the stakes,” she said in the spin room. “It also provides an opportunity for JD Vance to compare the peace through strength, and the peace, specifically in the Middle East under President Trump, versus this catastrophe that we’re seeing around the world.”
-ABC News’ Soo Rin Kim
Harris, in fundraising pitch, says Walz ‘is ready’ to debate Vance
Vice President Harris, in a fundraising pitch email to supporters, said Walz “is ready” to debate Vance.
“In just hours, Tim Walz will debate JD Vance,” she wrote. “I know that he is ready. And it would help if he knew donors like you had his back before he got on stage.”
Harris added that “Tim has been an outstanding partner out on the campaign trail over the last two months,” and “I have the utmost confidence in the team we’ve built.”
-ABC News’ Fritz Farrow
Biden has ‘complete confidence’ in Walz: White House
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre wouldn’t say during the White House press briefing on Tuesday whether President Joe Biden would watch the vice presidential debate, but she said the president has “complete confidence” in Walz.
“He continues to be very busy with all of the events happening today,” she said during Tuesday’s briefing. “But he has complete confidence in Tim Walz.”
Gabbard predicts ‘stark contrast’ between Walz and Vance during debate
Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard spoke to ABC News Live on Tuesday where she criticized Walz’s lack of media interviews, predicting that it will show in the debate.
“I think there’s going to be a stark contrast here, given JD Vance has been out on the road doing multiple interviews,” she told ABC News Live. “I think he’s done more interviews than any candidate in this election, whereas Tim Walz has been very quiet on that front.”
“I think this opportunity tonight, I hope, will not be more of the same kind of political theater that we’ve seen in so many of these debates, but actual substantive discussion and debate and accountability,” Gabbard — who endorsed Trump — continued.
Ahead of Tuesday’s debate, Adrienne Elrod, Harris campaign senior adviser and spokesperson, made an appearance on ABC News Live and said that Walz is taking it “very, very seriously.”
“Gov. Walz is taking this debate very, very seriously because you understand the magnitude of this moment,” Elrod said. “He’s going to continue to really talk about the Harris-Walz priorities, what their administration would look like, lowering costs for middle class families, protecting the Affordable Care Act, not getting rid of it.”
-ABC News’ Casey McShea
CBS News says mics won’t be muted for VP debate
CBS News, the network hosting the debate, said that the candidates’ microphones will not be muted, but clarified in a press release that it “reserves the right to turn off candidate microphones.”
This is a shift from the CNN presidential debate in June and the ABC News presidential debate held earlier this month, where microphones were muted unless it was the candidate’s turn to speak.
Emmer says Vance will hold Walz ‘accountable’ during VP debate
Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., praised Vance on “This Week” Sunday, saying the Ohio senator will do a “great job” on Tuesday night and that “he’s got the issues on his side.”
“Vance could talk about the economy that Donald Trump fixed and that Harris and Biden broke. He can talk about the border that Trump fixed and they broke. He can talk about peace and stability around the world, which they don’t even have a clue [about]; they’ve caused all of this disruption,” Emmer said. “Once he understands that Tim Walz is just going to try and deflect and go into this folksy whatever, he’ll hold him accountable.”
-ABC News’ Hannah Demissie
Why VP debates aren’t all that important
Typically, fewer people watch vice presidential debates than presidential debates. And while presidential debates are historically one of the few things that can actually make a dent in the polls, vice presidential debates don’t have the same track record.
According to Nielsen, since 2008, presidential debates have drawn an average audience of 65.7 million people. But vice presidential debates have drawn an average of just 54.1 million viewers. But 54.1 million people is still a pretty big audience — so have past vice presidential debates actually changed the trajectory of the race?
That turns out to be a tricky question to answer. Read more here.
-538’s Nathaniel Rakich and Amina Brown
How to watch the VP debate
The 90-minute debate will air on CBS and be simulcast on the ABC network and stream on ABC News Live.
ABC pre-debate coverage begins at 8 p.m. ET; post-debate ABC News coverage will go on until 11 p.m. ET. ABC News Live, ABC News’ 24/7 streaming news channel, will provide full coverage beginning at 7 p.m. ET and run through 12 a.m. ET.
Former President Donald Trump told Kellyanne Conway on Monday morning that the debate will be stacked against his running mate. He also remained undecided on a second debate against Vice President Kamala Harris.
“So, I’d rather debate. I’d rather have another one. The problem is, we’re so far down the line,” Trump said.
Trump claimed the debates are “so stacked,” adding, “you’ll see it tomorrow with JD. It’ll be stacked.”
While on the campaign trail last weekend, Harris used Tuesday night’s debate to goad Trump into accepting a second debate, saying that it shouldn’t be the “last word.”
-ABC News’ Kelsey Walsh and Gabriella Abdul-Hakim
Vance is prepared for debate: Trump campaign
Vance is prepared for his debate against Walz, said Jason Miller, the Trump campaign senior adviser, on Monday.
The Ohio senator has turned to Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer to help him in debate rehearsals by playing Walz, sources familiar with the plans told ABC News. One of the sources said Emmer was invited to be the stand-in so Vance could prepare to take on the governor’s folksy personality.
-ABC News’ Hannah Demissie
Where’s Walz? From under the radar to the VP debate spotlight
In the eight weeks since being selected by Harris to join the ticket, Walz — originally thought to be a dark-horse selection coming from behind to beat out some better-known national figures — has effectively barnstormed the country.
“I think this is a big moment for him. Up till now, he’s been heavily managed and carefully guarded,” said Larry Jacobs, the director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. “Now he’s going to be out there on the stage, and if he makes mistakes or comes off as not quite as authentic as he’s been claiming, I think it’ll be damaging to him, and he might make mistakes.”
Walz will not be in the spin room after the debate, according to the Harris-Walz campaign.
Seven surrogates will spin for him instead, including Sens. Mark Kelly, Amy Klobuchar, Ben Ray Luján; Govs. Jared Polis and JB Pritzker; Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison.
-ABC News’ Isabella Murray
Vance to visit spin room after debate
Vance will go to the spin room following his debate with Walz, according to a source familiar with the plan.
He also participated in the spin room after former President Donald Trump’s debate against Vice President Kamala Harris in September.
Politico was first to report Vance’s plans.
-ABC News’ Hannah Demissie
Walz ‘looking forward’ to debate
While campaigning around Petoskey, Michigan, on Monday, Walz said that his “focus” was on Hurricane Helene and its destruction across the southeast, even while “looking forward” to the debate.
To prepare for Tuesday night, Walz used Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as a Vance stand-in, who “surprised everyone by showing up to prep in a cheap red tie instead of camp casual attire,” according to a source familiar.
-ABC News’ Isabella Murray
Walz, Vance set for tight-race showdown
Sometimes, vice-presidential debates tend not to matter much and are quickly forgotten.
But tonight’s showdown in New York City could matter more than most given how close the presidential race is at the moment.
Many undecided voters – who could end up deciding the election – will get their first chance to hear at length from the Harris and Trump running mates.
The CBS News debate – where mics will be unmuted and the candidates will have to do their own fact-checking – starts at 9 p.m. ET.
The ABC network will carry the debate live with pre-debate coverage beginning at 8 p.m. ET. ABC News Live will stream pre-debate coverage, the debate and post-debate analysis and ABC News Digital/538 will live blog during the debate with key takeaways afterward.
