7-Eleven to close hundreds of US locations before end of 2024
(NEW YORK) — 7-Eleven will close more than 400 of its “underperforming stores” across the U.S. and Canada in an effort to reduce costs and bolster earnings before the end of the year.
Seven & I Holdings, the Tokyo-based parent company of the convenience store chain, announced the news during an earnings call last week, saying 444 stores will be shuttered due to the cumulative factors of inflation, slower customer traffic, and declining cigarette sales.
“All of these have impacted our sales and merchandise gross profit,” the CEO and President Joe DePinto said on the call.
As a result of the “macroeconomic conditions and evolving industry trends,” DePinto added that the company has revised its earning guidance.
The company reported a 7.3% decline in store traffic back in August and and said during its latest earnings reporting that the pattern corresponds with the “pullback of the middle- and low-income consumer.”
The total number of closures accounts for just over 3% of the more than 13,000 7-Eleven stores in North America.
(WASHINGTON) — Vice President Kamala Harris has unveiled a comprehensive agenda focused on cooling inflation, but many economists consider the fight against price increases to be nearly finished.
Inflation stands below 3% for the first time since 2021, U.S. government data earlier this month showed. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates at a meeting in September, suggesting that the central bank could retreat from its yearslong battle to slow prices.
Still, consumer prices have climbed more than 20% over the last three years, demoralizing shoppers and straining household budgets. Inflation continues to top lists of voter concerns.
Economists who spoke with ABC News described current price levels as an unfortunate reality that would be nearly impossible to undo, since an outright lowering of prices typically accompanies economic hardship that would require medicine more painful than the ailment.
However, some economists said Harris’ proposals could reduce prices for some essential goods, like food, while slowing inflation for items such as housing that are still seeing rapid price increases. Other economists said the measures amount to a solution for a problem that no longer exists, saying the tardy legislative fixes could stunt economic activity.
“We can’t unwind prices back to a certain place,” Catherine Pakaluk, a professor of economics at the Busch School of Business at Catholic University, told ABC News.
Since overall prices depend on a worldwide tug of war between supply and demand, general cost reductions would demand a significant economic shock to send that balance askew, Pakaluk added.
“All prices are linked together,” Pakaluk said. “We all have a sense, ‘If only we could reset prices back to where they were three years ago.’ But there’s no mechanism for that.”
In response to ABC News’ request for comment, the Harris campaign pointed to a speech that she delivered on Friday.
“When I am elected president, I will make it a top priority to bring down costs and increase economic security for all Americans. As president, I will take on the high costs that matter most to most Americans, like the cost of food,” Harris said.
“We all know that prices went up during the pandemic when the supply chains shut down and failed, but our supply chains have now improved and prices are still too high,” Harris added.
While acknowledging the difficulty of achieving overall price decreases, some economists noted a potential for price reductions in certain industries, especially the food and grocery sector targeted by Harris’ proposals.
Harris points to the market power of large corporations in the grocery industry as a key cause of rapid price increases for food, saying companies use their outsized role to raise prices without fear of a competitor offering a comparable product at a more affordable price. Consumers, the Harris campaign says, are left with nowhere to turn.
“Extreme consolidation in the food industry has led to higher prices that account for a large part of higher grocery bills,” the campaign said in a statement on Friday.
Dan Scheitrum, a professor of agribusiness at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, said Harris’ plan to crack down on potential anti-competitive practices within the food sector could end up lowering prices for some household staples.
“If price fixing is taking place and it gets addressed, I expect that could undo some of the price increases,” Scheitrum said.
While general inflation has moderated, price increases for housing remain highly elevated. Housing prices climbed 5.1% over the year ending in July, soaring at a pace more than twice as fast as the overall inflation rate.
The Harris campaign proposed restoring affordability through a combination of boosting home supply and easing the price pressures for some homebuyers.
Economists who spoke with ABC News largely applauded Harris’ efforts to boost the housing supply but offered mixed opinions about a potential $25,000 subsidy for first-time homebuyers.
“We as economists commonly disagree, but the question of housing supply is something we kind of all agree about,” Pakaluk said
On the other hand, a $25,000 subsidy for some homebuyers could allow them to increase their bids and send prices higher, Pakaluk added. “It might have the opposite effect on price than they want,” Pakaluk said.
Peter Morici, a professor emeritus at the University of Maryland’s School of Business, warned against the economic consequences of any attempt to cool prices when they’re well on their way to normal levels.
“The price increases that we’ve seen are very difficult to reverse,” Morici told ABC News. “It can’t be solved, except with draconian measures.”
Other economists indicated that a wide-ranging effort to address inflation could play an important preventative role, safeguarding the economy against a price spike in the event of an emergency, such as another pandemic.
“Even if you’re back to being on budget rather than on edge, you’re still scared. You’ve had a really terrible experience from no fault of your own,” Isabella Weber, an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst who studies price controls, told ABC News.
“We have to prepare for the next shock,” Weber added.
(NEW YORK) — The Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo-sized rate cut this week in a move widely viewed as a declaration of victory over inflation and a signal of relief for borrowers.
Few areas of the economy welcomed the news more than the nation’s sluggish housing market, where high mortgage rates have largely shut out homebuyers.
Experts who spoke to ABC News cautioned that the rate cut would not deliver an immediate drop in mortgage rates or a loosening up of the housing market.
Mortgage rates had already dropped over recent months in anticipation of the rate cut, they said. They forecasted a gradual thaw in the market as homebuyers perk up and borrowing costs slowly decline.
“This is a harbinger of good times to come, but we’re not there yet,” Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, told ABC News.
Here’s what to know about what the Fed’s rate cut means for mortgage rates and the housing market.
What does the Fed’s rate cut mean for mortgage rates?
The interest rate cut likely will not have a significant impact on mortgage rates over the short term, experts said. That’s because mortgage rates had already moved due to an expectation of this rate decision.
The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.09%, according to Freddie Mac data released on Thursday.
That figure has plummeted more than a percentage point since May. The average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage has dropped even further from a peak reached last October.
“Everybody has been talking about an expected drop in the Fed Funds rate,” Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, told ABC News. “The mortgage market heard that loud and clear.”
Initial evidence suggesting unchanged mortgage rates can be found in the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond, experts said.
Mortgage rates closely track the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond, or the amount paid to a bondholder annually. In the aftermath of the Fed’s rate cut on Wednesday, the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond ticked slightly upward, defying the nudge downward by the central bank.
“Ten-year rates are basically pricing in the effect of interest rates coming down,” Lu Liu, a professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, told ABC News.
Still, experts added, mortgage rates may gradually decline over the remainder of 2024 and the duration of 2025.
The Federal Open Market Committee, a policymaking body at the Fed, on Wednesday forecasted further interest rate cuts.
By the end of 2024, interest rates will fall nearly another half of a percentage point from their current level of between 4.75% and 5%, according to FOMC projections. Interest rates will drop another percentage point over the course of 2025, the projections indicated.
If interest rates track those projections, then mortgage rates may see some decline as investors gain confidence that falling interest rates will not hit a snag, experts said.
“By the end of 2025, we can expect mortgage rates to be in the 5% range,” Wachter said.
Lautz offered a slightly less optimistic assessment, predicting mortgage rates next year in the high 5% range.
Uncertainty about the path of mortgage rates remains significant, said Liu. “It’s always a little bit of wait and see,” Liu said.
Experts agreed, however, that mortgage rates would not return to levels of between 2% and 3% enjoyed by homebuyers as recently as 2021. Those rates came in response to aggressive rate cuts at the Fed in response to COVID-19.
“That was a very unusual environment,” Lautz said. “It’s very unlikely to happen.”
What does the Fed’s rate cut mean for the housing market?
Experts expect the housing market to eventually heat up. But they do not expect the interest rate cut to deliver a sudden jolt.
The housing market remains sluggish. Existing-home sales declined 2.5% in August compared to the previous month, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors on Thursday. The slowdown took place despite a significant decline in mortgage rates over that period.
The housing market will loosen up as low mortgage rates trickle through to homebuyers, and as those consumers proceed through the monthslong process of purchasing a home, experts said. The lower mortgage rates will also entice prospective buyers who previously balked at higher borrowing costs, they added.
Still, the current drop in mortgage rates may not rekindle the housing market, experts said, citing a phenomenon known as the “lock-in effect.”
While mortgage rates have fallen, they remain well above the rates enjoyed by most current homeowners, who may be reluctant to put their homes on the market and risk a much higher rate on their next mortgage.
In turn, the market could continue to suffer from a lack of supply, making options limited and prices sticky. Over the coming months, however, the housing market could loosen up, experts said.
“Now with rates coming down, we may gradually see some people willing to give up lower rates, move and sell their houses,” Liu said. “Hopefully there will be a little more supply on the market, but prices aren’t likely to come down all that much.”
Lautz agreed, predicting better days ahead. “It’s a slow burn,” she said. “We should see a change in activity and more buyers able to afford the market.”
(NEW YORK) — A fresh inflation report on Wednesday will show whether price increases have continued a monthslong cooldown as they fall toward normal levels.
Economists expect prices to have increased 2.6% over the year ending in August. That figure would mark a notable slowdown from the year-over-year rate of 2.9% recorded in the previous month.
After six consecutive months of slowing price increases, inflation stands at its lowest level since March 2021. However, inflation remains nearly a percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
The new price data on Wednesday holds major implications for the course of widely expected interest rate cuts.
The chances of an interest rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week are all but certain, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment. Market observers are divided over whether the Fed will impose its typical cut of a quarter of a percentage point, or opt for a larger half-point cut.
So far this year, the job market has slowed alongside cooling inflation. That trend was underscored last week by a weaker-than-expected jobs report, though employers added a solid 142,000 jobs. The unemployment rate has ticked up this year from 3.7% to 4.2%.
The Fed is guided by a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. In theory, low interest rates help stimulate economic activity and boost employment, while high interest rates slow economic performance and ease inflation.
Recent trends have shifted the Fed’s focus away from controlling inflation and toward ensuring a healthy job market.
Speaking at an annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the “time has come” for the Fed to adjust its interest rate policy.
At previous meetings, Powell said the Fed needed to be confident that inflation had begun moving sustainably downward to its target rate of 2% before instituting rate cuts. Last month, Powell appeared to indicate that the Fed had achieved that objective.
“My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path down to 2%,” Powell said.
Since last year, the Federal Reserve has held interest rates at their highest level in more than two decades. High borrowing costs for everything from mortgages to credit card loans have helped slow the economy and lower inflation, but the policy risks tipping the U.S. into a recession.
Last month, Goldman Sachs economists raised the probability of a U.S. recession in the next year from 15% to 25%. However, economists disagree about whether current economic conditions warrant serious concern.