Gov. Roy Cooper says Harris has ‘excellent’ chances in battleground North Carolina, will be helped by governor’s race
Allison Joyce/Bloomberg via Getty Images
(GREENSBORO, N.C.) — North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, said Thursday that Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances in the crucial battleground state of North Carolina are “excellent,” because of her momentum following the ABC News debate as well as the governor’s race.
“Her chances are excellent, and most people have North Carolina as a toss-up state,” Cooper said in an interview with ABC News at Harris’ rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, on Thursday.
Trump narrowly won North Carolina in 2020, and no Democrat has won the state in a presidential race since former President Barak Obama in 2008. Democrats now believe the state is back in play with Harris at the top of the ticket, as she generates more enthusiasm with young voters and voters of color.
Cooper also said that Harris’ performance at the ABC News debate earlier this week moved the needle with voters more than usual because she’s still introducing herself to the American people.
“We know that debates oftentimes don’t make that big a difference. I think it made a difference here because a lot of people didn’t really know Kamala Harris that well, and they got a chance to see her in action for an hour and a half,” he said.
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that 28% of likely voters said they feel they need to still learn more about Harris, while only 9% of likely voters felt that way about Trump.
Harris appears to be benefiting from some momentum after the debate, which could help her in some key battleground states like North Carolina.
538 has collected three national polls and one swing-state poll that were conducted since the debate. In all of them, more people who watched the debate said Harris won the debate than said Trump did. On average, 57% of debate watchers nationally said Harris turned in the better performance; only 34% said Trump did.
Cooper said another thing that helps Harris in the state is the governor’s race — presumably as people come out to vote against the controversial Republican candidate.
“I think this will be a bottom-up race. I think the governor’s race in North Carolina will help Kamala Harris,” he said.
The North Carolina gubernatorial race to take over for term-limited Cooper is a competitive and closely watched race. In it, North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, a Democrat, is taking on Republican opponent Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.
Cooper called Robinson — a controversial candidate with a record of attacking women, Muslims and the LGBTQ community as well as amplifying conspiracy theories and extreme views against abortion — an “extreme right-wing candidate” that he said will “drag Donald Trump down.”
Americans broadly pick Kamala Harris as the winner of last week’s widely watched presidential debate – yet neither she nor Donald Trump moved the needle in terms of trust on the issues, ratings of the candidates’ personal attributes or vote preferences in the 2024 election.
Even Taylor Swift shows little impact: Just 6% in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll say the pop star singer-songwriter’s endorsement of Harris makes them more likely to vote for her; 13%, instead, say it makes them less likely to support her, with 81% saying it makes no difference. Those responding negatively are overwhelmingly Trump supporters, according to the poll.
Americans by 58-36% say Harris won the debate – a reversal from the Biden-Trump match in June, which Trump was seen as winning by 66-28%. Biden’s performance intensified questions about his cognitive health, precipitating his departure from the race.
The poll of 3,276 adults, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos, finds that Harris did firm up some of her personal appeal: Thirty-seven percent say the debate made them feel more favorably toward her, vs. 23% less favorably. There was no such benefit for Trump: People by nearly 2-1 say the debate made them see him less favorably.
The benefit for Harris occurred almost exclusively in her base, potentially helping her turnout efforts. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents say the debate made them see her more favorably. Only half as many Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents, 34%, say the debate made them see Trump more favorably. One factor may be that Harris, a walk-on candidate, has had less public exposure until now.
The poll also finds a slight dip in the share of Trump supporters who back him strongly – 56%, vs. 60% at the end of August. Sixty-two percent of Harris’ supporters now are strongly behind her, the first meaningful difference in strong support between the two.
That said, Trump shows an advantage in another gauge: while 42% call him too conservative, 47% call Harris too liberal, one of his debate themes.
Preferences
Vote preferences haven’t moved meaningfully. This poll finds the race at 51-46%, Harris-Trump, among all adults; 51-47% among registered voters; and 52-46% among likely voters. Each is within a percentage point of its pre-debate level in ABC/Ipsos polling.
Results are essentially identical when including third-party or Independent candidates Chase Oliver, Jill Stein and Cornel West; they get at most 1% support apiece. State-to-state ballot access for these candidates is a work in progress; ABC News estimates that as of now Oliver likely is on the ballot in about 36 states, Stein in about 27 and West in about 15.
It’s important to note that this poll measures preferences nationally, an effort to better understand how all Americans are coming to their choices in the presidential election. It doesn’t assess the contest at the state level, which determines the winner of the Electoral College.
The absence of movement in vote preferences, despite a 22-point tilt to Harris as having won the debate, marks the sharply polarized nature of the electorate. Almost everyone has a preference between Harris or Trump, and among those who do, few say they’d even consider the other. This is especially true among likely voters, with just 3% potentially persuadable to switch.
Another result also shows the entrenched divisions in attitudes. Seventy-three percent of Trump’s supporters say they’ve backed him all year. Of the rest, 17% were undecided at some point but settled on Trump; just 9% moved to Trump from another candidate – mostly, other Republicans or the former Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Barely 2% of Trump’s supporters came to him after previously preferring Harris or Biden.
It’s similar on Harris’ side of the ledger. Two-thirds of her supporters say they’ve been with her since she got into the race. A quarter were undecided at some point. Just 2% of Harris supporters have moved to her from Trump.
Movable voters can matter – as everyone matters – in a tight race. But these results suggest that the biggest pickings for Trump and Harris alike are in motivating turnout among their existing support groups.
Groups
Harris leads Trump by nine points among women while running virtually even with him among men, and by a slight nine points among 18- to 29-year-olds, entirely due to her support from women that age. She improves among young adults who are more likely to vote.
While younger women are important to Harris, the Swift endorsement doesn’t show a positive impact even in this group. Eight percent of women younger than 30 say the endorsement makes them more likely to support Harris, while 13% say it makes them less likely to do so. Most, 78%, say it makes no difference.
Her position among suburban women, an often-watched group, is similar to her support among women overall. More tellingly, she’s +12 points among independents, often a swing voter group in presidential elections.
Trump, for his part, leads by a vast 79-18% among white evangelical Protestants, with this core GOP group seemingly unfazed by his layered position on abortion. He’s roughly on par with past performance, having won white evangelical Protestants by 74-25% in 2020 and 81-16% in 2016.
In other groups, Trump leads by 12 points among white people, growing to 28 points among those who don’t have a four-year college degree, a mainstay of his support. Despite suggestions that he’s denigrated the military, he leads by 29 points among veterans, 63-34%.
Voters
Many of these results – but not all – hold steady when moving from the general public (relevant because there’s still time to register) to registered voters and then to likely voters. But there are a few notable exceptions.
Harris advances from +9 points among all adults aged 18-29 to +19 points among those identified as likely voters. This is fueled by young women, a cornerstone group in her campaign: Harris goes from +23 points among all women under 30 to +38 points among those likely to vote.
There’s a stark contrast with men aged 18-29 who are likely to vote: Just 51% in this group back Harris, with virtually as many, 48%, for Trump.
Trump, for his part, remains closer than usual to Harris among Hispanic people, now trailing her by 17 points among those who are likely voters. That’s better than usual for Trump compared with past elections: Biden won Hispanic people by 33 points in 2020; Hillary Clinton won them by 40 points in 2016, per ABC News exit polls.
Issues and attributes
While overall vote preferences are stable, so are views on issues and attributes. The economy and inflation continue to dominate as the top issues in the election, and Trump leads by 7 points in trust to handle each of them.
In the next most important issues, Harris responds with a 7-point lead on “protecting American democracy” and a 9-point lead on handling health care. The two remain evenly matched on crime and safety.
It’s clear, too, why Trump keeps doubling down on immigration as an issue: He leads Harris by 10 points in trust to handle it. She leads him by 14 points on abortion and by 16 points on handling race relations, although both rate lower in importance.
There are differences among groups in issue importance. In notable gender gaps, women are 14 points more apt than men to cite abortion as a top issue in their vote, 68% vs. 54% – a difference that holds regardless of age. Women also are 11 points more likely than men to cite health care as a top issue, 82 vs. 71%. Still, the economy and inflation top the issues list among women and men alike.
Harris’ best results vs. Trump continue to be on personal attributes, explaining her effort to lean in on this domain. She leads him by 32 points in having the physical health it takes to serve effectively, 17 points in honesty and trustworthiness, 10 points in mental sharpness, 10 points in understanding the problems of people like you and 7 points in better representing your personal values. All, again, are essentially the same as they were before the debate.
Overall favorability also is essentially unchanged: Forty-seven percent have a favorable impression of Harris, vs. 35% for Trump. Still, they’re close in being seen as qualified for office – Harris by 53%, Trump by 49%. The difference widens, however, among independents; 56% see Harris as qualified vs. 48% who say the same of Trump.
Debate
Lastly, on the debate, it’s notable that 95% of Democrats say Harris won, while fewer Republicans, 75%, say Trump won. (Among independents, 61% pick Harris.) Similarly, among Trump’s own supporters, 78% say he won the debate, while among people backing Harris, 97% give her the win. (These results include people who initially called the debate a tie, then leaned toward Harris or Trump as the winner.)
While 58% overall say Harris won, this rises to 64% of those who watched all or some of the debate. That reflects the fact that Harris supporters are 8 points more likely than Trump supporters to have watched. Harris supporters are even more apt to have read, watched or listened to follow-up news coverage or commentary about the debate – 75% have done so, vs. 59% of those who support Trump.
Methodology
This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Sept. 11-13, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 3,276 adults. Partisan divisions are 29-29-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 2 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sample sizes are 2,772 for registered voters and 2,196 for likely voters, with a 2-point error margin for each. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on the ABC News survey methodology here.
(WASHINGTON) — The House unanimously on Friday approved a bill that would require the Secret Service to apply equal standards of protection to major presidential candidates and sitting presidents, a move that comes in the wake of two assassination attempts on former President Trump.
The final tally was 405-0 in favor of the bill. Only two-thirds majority was required for the measure to pass.
The bill was first introduced following the first assassination attempt in July by Reps. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., and Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y.
It now heads to the Senate where its fate is uncertain. The Senate would likely not be able to take it up until after the 2024 election.
The House also officially expanded the jurisdiction of the Task Force investigating the Butler, PA assassination attempt against former President Trump to also include the second assassination attempt at Trump’s golf course in Florida.
Speaker Johnson said earlier this week the House would take this step and it was just approved by unanimous consent.
On Wednesday, the Secret Service told the House task force investigating the assassination attempts against Trump that the former president has an increased level of security.
“President Biden ordered the Secret Service to provide the same level of security to both Vice President Harris and to former President Trump, that would be a presidential level security commensurate with what the president would receive, and that that security is being provided, that’s our understanding,” Ranking Member Jason Crow, D-CO, said following a USSS virtual briefing.
The USSS insists that Donald Trump is now receiving protection at what one official calls “the highest levels the Secret Service provides.”
In addition to counter assault, counter surveillance, counter sniper, protective intelligence and drone teams for Trump, an agency official says the security plan at Mar-a-Lago now includes emergency tactical response functions and a protective platoon from Palm Beach County.
The protective package around a candidate – even one who’s now repeatedly come under physical threat – could never be the same as that of a sitting president or vice president, the official said.
Acting Director of the Secret Service said Monday that Congress’ commitment to providing the resources the agency needs has been “fantastic.”
He also praised DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas “ whose support in making sure that we’re getting what we need has been phenomenal.”
Rowe said that right now they need to hire more people because they are currently “redlining” agents.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise touted the bill during the GOP weekly leadership press conference earlier this week.
“Every year since 2017, Congress has added more money to the Secret Service’s budget than they even requested in their budget,” Scalise said Wednesday. “And so, it is not an issue of money. What they are doing with the money we’ve had a lot of serious questions about before the first assassination attempt.”
ABC News’ Luke Barr and Steven Portnoy contributed to this report.
(WASHINGTON) — Former President Donald Trump will visit the city of Valdosta, Georgia, on Monday after Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on the area over the last few days, while Vice President Kamala Harris is cutting short a campaign swing through Las Vegas to return to Washington to be briefed on the hurricane response by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
On Monday, Trump will receive a briefing on the hurricane as well as facilitate the distribution of relief supplies, his campaign said. He is then expected to deliver remarks to reporters in front of the Chez What Furniture Store, whose owners posted pictures online of their store completely demolished by the storm.
Harris said she intends to visit communities impacted by Hurricane Helene “as soon as it is possible without disrupting emergency response operations,” according to a White House official. Harris, who was briefed by FEMA on the federal response to the hurricane, reached out to local officials, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp.
“We are deploying food, water and generators, and working to restore state and local leaders, we will provide whatever help they need in the days and weeks ahead,” Harris said Sunday while rallying in Las Vegas.
She will learn more from FEMA during meetings in Washington on Monday, according to a White House official.
Trump’s visit to Georgia comes after his recent criticism of President Joe Biden and Harris for their response to the natural disaster.
“She ought to be down in the area where she should be. That’s what she’s getting paid for, right? That’s what she’s getting paid for,” Trump said at his rally Sunday in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Trump has attacked Harris’ response to Hurricane Helene specifically, saying her delay in visiting the impacted region demonstrates that she isn’t qualified to become president.
Biden, while returning home from the beach on Sunday, was adamant that his administration was doing everything possible to help the affected communities.
Asked by ABC New is there are more resources the federal government could be giving, Biden responded, “no, we’ve given them.”
“We have pre-planned a significant amount, even though they didn’t ask for it yet — hadn’t asked for it yet,” Biden said Sunday.
Hurricane Helene’s storm surge, wind damage, and inland flooding caused deviation and casualties in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee, flooding neighborhoods, stranding residents, demolishing homes and toppling trees. The storm has killed at least 107 people and left dozens missing.
