Fed cuts interest rates a half point in landmark policy shift
(NEW YORK) — The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate a half of a percentage point on Wednesday in a landmark decision that dials back its years-long fight against inflation and delivers relief for borrowers saddled with high costs.
The central bank’s first rate cut since 2020 came after a recent stretch of data had established the key conditions for a rate cut: falling inflation and slowing job gains.
In theory, lower interest rates help stimulate economic activity and boost employment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 200 points in the immediate aftermath of the announcement on Wednesday afternoon.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also climbed following the news.
“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month at an annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear.”
Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, though it remains slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.
Meanwhile, the job market has cooled. A weaker-than-expected jobs report in each of the last two months has stoked concern among some economists.
“We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability,” Powell said last month.
Prior to the decision, the chances of a rate cut were are all but certain, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
Market observers, however, were divided over whether the Fed will impose its typical cut of a quarter of a percentage point, or opt for a larger half-point cut. The tool estimated the probability of a half-point cut at 65% and the odds of a quarter-point cut at 35%.
A half-point cut risked overstimulating the economy and rekindling elevated inflation, while a quarter-point cut threatened to delay the type of economic jumpstart that may be required to avert a recession, Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, told ABC News in a statement.
“Rarely have market expectations been so torn” on the eve of a rate decision, Shah added.
Borrowers should not expect immediate relief, Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, told ABC News in a statement prior to the decision.
“This initial rate cut will have little immediate impact,” Renter said. “I anticipate many consumers and business owners will take the beginning of this change in monetary policy as a sign of hope.”
The rate cut on Wednesday would goes into effect less than 50 days before the November election.
The decision deviates from the policy approach taken by the Fed prior to many recent presidential elections, a Reuters analysis found. Policy rates were left unchanged for six to 12 months before the 2020, 2016, 2012 and 2000 U.S. presidential elections, according to Reuters.
To be sure, the Fed says it bases its decisions on economic conditions and operates as an independent government body.
When asked about the 2024 election at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Powell said, “We don’t think about politics.”
(NEW YORK) — This summer brought lots of buzz around “tourist taxes” and other fees that can get tacked on to normal travel expenses. Now, another fee that may be familiar to avid cruisers is increasing on one major cruise line.
The so-called “Crew Appreciation” fee is a daily amount that’s automatically added to a guests’ onboard accounts with Princess Cruises “to recognize the efforts of a wide variety of crewmembers who contribute to the experiences of all our guests” and are pooled and distributed throughout the year in compensation and bonuses.
Travelers will pay slightly more starting later this month depending on the type of accommodations they book, according to the cruise line, which last raised the price in February 2023.
Echoing recent headlines surrounding updates to airline baggage prices, Princess Cruises’ Crew Appreciation fee is rising by just $1 per person, per day in various classes of cabins.
Travelers in suites will see a $19 daily fee, while those in mini suites, cabanas or Club Classes will pay $18. Guests in all other staterooms will pay $17.
“The crewmembers eligible to receive these funds work in various departments, many of whom rotate among different ships, throughout our fleet of ships,” Princess states on its website. “Guests have complete discretion to adjust these crew appreciation [fees] while onboard; however, crew appreciation may only be adjusted prior to disembarking the ship and not refundable post cruise.”
Travelers can choose a prepaid crew appreciation option while managing their booking, but if it’s not adjusted up to the time a passenger settles up the account prior to disembarkation, the payment becomes final and nonrefundable.
Full details of the policy are available on the Princess Cruises website.
(NEW YORK) — Stock prices worldwide seesawed dramatically this week, forcing investors to keep up with sudden turns in the market and weather fears of an economic slowdown.
The S&P 500 on Monday suffered its worst decline in a single trading day since 2022. In early trading on Tuesday, the index recovered more than half of those losses.
Japan’s main Nikkei 225 stock index on Monday dropped more than 12%, its worst trading session since 1987. On Tuesday, the index soared 10%.
Market analysts who spoke to ABC News urged investors to be patient despite pressure to either join a selloff or buy a downturn. The market typically experiences temporary periods of decline, they added, noting the strong performance for stocks this year prior to the recent losses.
Broad losses may offer investors an opportunity to buy low on a high-quality stock that they’d been eyeing anyway, some analysts said, but they advised seeking out stocks viewed as long-term investments.
“I wouldn’t be panicking in this environment,” Ed Yardeni, the president of market advisory firm Yardeni Research and former chief investment strategist at Deutsche Bank’s U.S. equities division, told ABC News. “It could be a roller-coaster ride.”
Recession fears and the unwinding of a ‘carry trade’ in Japan
The stock market downswing was set off by a disappointing jobs report on Friday. Employers hired 114,000 workers in July, falling well short of economist expectations of 185,000 jobs. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021.
The lackluster jobs data fueled concern about a potential recession and calls for an interest rate cut.
The heightened worry about an economic cooldown coincided with interest rate hikes imposed by Japan’s central bank. Those rising rates prompted an unwinding of a so-called “carry trade” in which investors borrowed Japanese yen at low interest rates and used it to purchase assets, including U.S. stocks.
When Japan hiked rates, investors sold off some of those assets and sent stock prices falling.
“There are a lot of things that have happened here in the past three business days. There are a lot of headlines flying around,” Bret Kenwell, an investing analyst at eToro, told ABC News. “It’s important for investors to remember the long-term trends in the market. They should have a lot of caution.”
Between 1980 and 2023, the S&P 500 posted a positive return over the calendar year 82% of the time, Wells Fargo Investment Institute told clients in a note on Tuesday. The market experienced a drop-off of at least 10% in nearly half of those years, Wells Fargo said, adding, “The data shows that a market downturn does not necessarily mean markets will perform poorly for the year.”
Market analysts advised caution as investors weigh opportunities to take advantage of the volatility. Still, they added, some traders may find a chance to obtain stocks that were previously too expensive.
Dan Ives, a managing director of equity research at investment firm Wedbush, said the tumult roiling markets offers investors an entryway into major tech stocks at discounted prices.
“It’s a white-knuckle moment that we view more as an opportunity to own big tech and the AI revolution, which is not going away,” Ives told ABC News.
Nvidia, a chipmaker that had helped catapult market gains so far this year, dropped as much as 14% on Monday before recovering some of those losses. The stock climbed nearly 5% in early trading on Tuesday.
Shares of Apple fell as much as 10% on Monday, in part because Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett sold half of his holdings in the company. Apple recovered some of those losses by the close of markets but inched downward in early trading on Tuesday.
“Any global jitters and fears of market turmoil are going to be an overhang for tech stocks,” Ives said. “We stay calm and focused on the tech winners.”
Kenwell said investors should calmly evaluate their asset allocation, risk tolerance and long-term goals.
“When volatility is spiking and markets are selling off, it’s really easy to open your portfolio and panic,” Kenwell said.
“Follow your long-term plan,” he added. “That’s why it’s there.”
(NEW YORK) — Trump Media & Technology Group’s stock dropped more than 11% this week, suffering from sour sentiment after a weak earnings report and the return of former President Donald Trump to rival social media platform X.
The company’s woes stretch back to the middle of last month. Since then, the stock for the Truth Social parent company has plummeted by about 43%. Yet as the stock continues to slide, some of its investors remain unfazed, telling ABC News they are optimistic about the company’s financial outlook, or intend to stand by it as an expression of their support for Trump.
Todd Schlanger, an interior designer from West Palm Beach, told ABC News that he purchased shares in Trump Media because he supports Trump’s politics and believes in his businesses.
“I’m a Republican, so I supported him. When I found out about the stock, I got involved because I support the company and believe in free speech,” said Schlanger, who said he owns approximately a thousand shares of the company.
A frequent user of the social media platform, Schlanger boasted about the user interface – “It’s like a combination of X and Facebook” – and said he looked forward to the expansion of the company’s streaming services.
“I think it’s going to be as strong as Facebook or Twitter,” said Schlanger.
Other investors said they primarily saw Truth Social as a way to support the former president.
“I did it more as a statement to President Trump and to show support at the time. I wasn’t really looking to make a lot of money,” said Teri Lynn Roberson, who bought five shares of the company as the company neared its peak stock price after going public in March.
Roberson said she was unconcerned about the stock’s poor performance or the impact of Trump’s potential return to rival X, the latter of which she said could benefit Trump’s presidential campaign by expanding his audience of supporters beyond the “echo chamber” of Truth Social.
“I’m way at a loss, but I am OK with that. I am just watching it for fun,” Roberson said.
Truth Social’s stock performance holds significant financial implications for the former president, who owns a 65% stake in the company. Truth Social shares make up a large portion of Trump’s overall net worth, according to Fortune.
Truth Social did not immediately respond to ABC News’ request for comment.
Truth Social’s recent losses
An earnings report released last Friday showed, Truth Social had lost more than $16 million over a three-month period ending in June. The company brought in revenue of about $836,000, down 30% from $1.2 million a year earlier, the earnings report showed.
In a statement released following the earnings report, Truth Social CEO Devin Nunes applauded the company’s balance sheet, including $344 million in cash and no debt.
“From the beginning, it was our intention to make Truth Social an impenetrable beachhead of free speech, and by taking extraordinary steps to minimize our reliance on Big Tech, that is exactly what we are doing,” Nunes said.
Investors, however, reacted poorly to the quarterly report when trading opened on Monday, and the stock price continued to drop when Trump then posted on rival X for the first time in roughly a year. It marked just his second post on the platform since January 2021, when the company suspended Trump in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol “due to the risk of further incitement to violence.”
After tech billionaire Elon Musk purchased what was then known as Twitter in Oct. 2022, he lifted the ban the following month. On Monday, Musk spoke with Trump in an interview that was broadcast on the platform.
While the former president is bound by an exclusivity agreement with Trump Media & Technology Group to post personal content first to Truth Social, Trump can make “politically-related” posts on other social media sites, according to the agreement. Other than a series of political posts on Monday, Trump has refrained from using social media sites beyond Truth Social.
Michael Rogers, who owns a masonry company in Asheville, North Carolina, said he first bought shares of Truth Social in 2022, before the company went public. Since then, Rogers has acquired more than 10,000 shares, he said.
Rogers, who said he plans to vote for Trump in November, bought the shares as both an expression of political support and as a sign of confidence in the company’s financial outlook, he said. “It’s a 50-50 balance of the reasons I started investing in Truth Social,” Rogers told ABC News.
Trump’s return to X this week did not bother Rogers, since the platform allows Trump to reach a larger audience, Rogers said. The weak earnings report last Friday did concern him, however.
“The revenue just isn’t there,” Rogers said. “That’s something the company has to work on.”
Despite the stock’s recent struggles, Rogers said he retains confidence in the business.
“I’m in it for the long haul,” Rogers said.
Analyst outlook
Analysts described the performance of Truth Social as the characteristic fluctuation of a so-called “meme stock.” The term – made famous by pandemic-era examples such as GameStop and AMC – indicates a company that largely appeals to investors on the basis of ideology, rather than financial outlook.
Truth Social’s value climbed about 30% in the immediate aftermath of an assassination attempt against Trump in July, reaching a price of $40 a share. That figure marked the highest level for the stock in more than a month, but shares still stood well below a peak of about $66.
The share price now stands at about $23, amounting to a drop of nearly two-thirds from its peak.
Tyler Richey, an analyst at Sevens Report Research, said the decline of the stock price in recent weeks has coincided with the emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee. A surge for Harris in voter surveys has damaged perception of Trump’s election prospects, Richey told ABC News.
“The stock has ebbed and flowed with sentiment toward former president Trump,” Richey said. “It doesn’t help that Trump was pretty much exclusively using Truth Social and decided to join Elon Musk with X.”
Jay Ritter, a professor of finance at the University of Florida, said Truth Social’s poor financial performance leaves it vulnerable to negative news and darkens its long-term outlook.
“For a long time, I’ve been saying that the stock will be volatile but that the long-run trend will be down,” Ritter said.
“What’s lacking for the true believer in the company story is, ‘OK, where is the business strategy that will be generating revenue?'” Ritter added, noting by contrast that it makes sense for die-hard Trump supporters to back the stock.
“I don’t think it’s irrational for people to do that,” Ritter said. “On the other hand, I generally don’t go out of my way to further line the pockets of billionaires.”
Trump supporters rushing to purchase shares in Truth Social provided other investors an opportunity to cash in on the company’s tumultuous stock price. With anticipation building ahead of Trump Media & Technology Group’s merger in March with Digital World Acquisition Corporation, Mitchell Standley exercised a few call options – contracts that allow an investor to buy a stock at a predetermined price – to make a 1,500% return on his investment.
“It was basically just a pump and dump,” Standley told ABC News. “I knew that once they merged, all of his supporters were going to dump a bunch of money into it and buy it up.”
Since March, Standley has avoided the company, he said, attributing its volatile stock performance to a lack of business fundamentals.
“I made my money and am staying away from it,” Standley said.