Japan flexes in Taiwan Strait, sending warship through disputed waters

(LONDON) — The unassuming pager took its place in the annals of Israeli covert operations history in September, when thousands of the credit card-sized devices served as tiny Trojan horses for explosive charges as they were held by likely Hezbollah operatives.

The pager detonations in Lebanon and Syria on Sept. 17 were followed by the explosion — around 24 hours later — of walkie-talkies, used by Hezbollah as a communications network after its beepers were compromised.

The attacks, which killed 37 people and wounded 2,931 according to Lebanese authorities, were several years in the making, a source told ABC News. 

“The disruption and damage they wrought was unprecedented in the history of the resistance in Lebanon,” Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah — himself killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Sept. 27 — said.

Sources confirmed to ABC News that Israel was responsible for the pager explosions.

Israel — which rarely confirms or denies responsibility for covert operations or attacks on foreign soil — offered no confirmation of responsibility for the attacks. President Isaac Herzog even told Sky News he “rejects out of hand any connection to this or that source of operation.”

Orna Mizrahi of the Institute for National Security Studies think tank in Israel told ABC News that the communication devices operations stand out due to “the amount of people that were eliminated.”

“We don’t call it assassination; we call it elimination,” said Mizrahi, who previously served in the Israel Defense Forces’ Military Intelligence Research Division and in the prime minister’s office as deputy national security adviser for foreign policy.

The attacks represent a world-first, Mizrahi said. 

“It’s a real invention,” she said.

As to the criticism of the mass detonation of the devices, Mizrahi responded: “The terrorists are the only ones that used them. So, it is like a bullet in the hand of your enemy. But it wasn’t a bullet. It was something that was exploding in their hands.”

The operation drew on a long history of audacious — though not always successful or discriminate — covert Israeli targeted killings all over the Middle East. Though Israel generally does not confirm involvement in such operations, top Israeli officials have made clear their position against what they deem to be threats to national security.

As Israel’s outgoing spy chief Yossi Cohen said in 2021 regarding reported targeted killings in Iran: “If the man constitutes a capability that endangers the citizens of Israel, he must stop existing.”

Mizrahi said those conducting such “elimination” operations usually do so based on one or more of three criteria. The target might be a “very important terrorist” with significant influence and capabilities, she said.

The target may be a long-standing one, with plans put in place and those executing them waiting for the right moment to strike, Mizrahi added.

Or, the eventual target may be identified as part of an imminent attack “and you want to intercept it and to stop it,” she added.

“It’s always people that are from what we understand is a terror organization, that are threatening Israel or in the midst of launching some kind of attack against Israel,” Mizrahi said.

“We don’t eliminate people just like that,” she added, noting that Israeli forces will “usually” want to ensure “there is very little collateral damage, not too many civilians.”

Past operations have been abandoned due to the likelihood of civilian casualties, Mizrahi said. 

“When you are in a war, you cannot be so cautious,” she added.

A bloody history

Within years of the country’s bloody, but ultimately successful, War of Independence in 1948, Israel’s clandestine services were waging assassination campaigns against the many surrounding forces and states deemed threats to the young nation’s survival.

Its military and intelligence services were staffed by many who participated in the Jewish insurgency against the entity known as Mandatory Palestine, the British-run territory designated by the League of Nations in the aftermath of World War II.

In 1956, for example, parcel bombs were used to kill Egyptian military officials Col. Mustafa Hafez and Lt. Col. Salah Mustafa in Egypt and Jordan, respectively, both of whom organized Palestinian militant raids into Israel.

As Israeli identity and policy were forged in the crucible of war, insurgency and terrorism, the country’s clandestine operations took on greater ingenuity and complexity — though direct methods of killing have remained in regular use through the nation’s 76 years, spanning the technological spectrum from shootings to airstrikes.

September’s explosions in Lebanon will go down as one of the most unusual attacks in Israeli — or wider international covert operations — history, given the delivery method of the explosives, the number of those killed or wounded and the intimate access to Hezbollah it demonstrated.

But it was not the first time Israel sought to turn everyday items into weapons. In 1972, for example, Palestine Liberation Organization cadre Bassam Abu Sharif — a former senior advisor to PLO chief Yasser Arafat — lost four fingers plus the use of one ear and one eye when a book sent to him by Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, exploded in his hands in Beirut. Israel never officially took responsibility.

The killing of 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics by the Palestinian Black September militant group set in motion a brutal and sprawling revenge campaign — known as Operation Wrath of God — that would see Mossad operatives turn unassuming items into weapons.

Mossad’s long-established policy of public silence meant it never claimed even the most sophisticated assassinations credited to the agency. But David Kimche, the former deputy head of Mossad, explained of the retaliation campaign: “The aim was not so much revenge but mainly to make them frightened.”

“We wanted to make them look over their shoulders and feel that we are upon them. And therefore, we tried not to do things by just shooting a guy in the street — that’s easy,” he said.

Mahmoud Hamshari — the PLO’s representative in Paris — for example, died of wounds sustained in his Paris apartment in December 1972, when Mossad agents detonated explosives packed into the base of his telephone.

Hussein Al Bashir, a representative of Palestinian group Fatah, was killed the following month in Cyprus by a bomb concealed in his hotel bed.

Death by communication device was a common theme in the years after Hamshari’s killing.

In 1996, for example, internal security agency Shin Bet tricked Yahya Ayyash — an infamous Hamas bombmaker accused of killing dozens of Israelis — into accepting a call using a cellphone given to him by a Palestinian collaborator. The phone detonated as he held it to his head, killing him instantly.

Samih Malabi, a member of Fatah’s Tanzim militant wing, was also killed by an exploding cellphone in 2000.

Another three Palestinians and alleged militants — Osama Fatih al-Jawabra, Iyad Mohammed Hardan and Muhammad Ishteiwi Abayat — were killed by explosions in phone booths in 2001 and 2002.

Among one of the highest profile assassinations was a joint Mossad-CIA operation targeting Imad Mughniyah — Hezbollah’s international operations chief — who was killed in a suburb of Damascus in 2008. Neither Mossad nor the CIA ever took credit publicly.

A bomb concealed in a car’s spare tire exploded as Mughniyah walked past. It was detonated remotely by agents in Tel Aviv, using operatives on the ground in the Syrian capital to guide the plot’s final execution, according to a Washington Post report citing five former U.S. intelligence officials.

In Iran, too, the hand of Israeli intelligence is credited with several high-profile killings. Israel was behind a rash of assassinations of nuclear scientists between 2007 and 2012 — often using magnetic car bombs or via drive-by shootings, according to Iran.

So, too, was it responsible for the killing of the alleged head of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, reportedly assassinated on a highway outside Tehran by a remote-controlled machine gun in 2020.

Israel’s highest-profile recent killing — that of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July — reportedly relied not on an innocuous item but on deep penetration of enemy security networks.

Haniyeh was killed by a bomb planted in a guesthouse he often used when visiting the Iranian capital.

The operation bypassed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ protection of the building, emplacing the device two months before Haniyeh’s visit, according to reporting in the The New York Times citing five anonymous Middle Eastern officials.

Blowback and civilian casualties

For all their ingenuity, Israel’s targeted killings also brought civilian casualties, political embarrassment and diplomatic blowback.

It remains unclear how many civilians were among the thousands injured in the recent device explosions in Lebanon and Syria. At least two children were among the dead. Additional civilians were killed in the subsequent Beirut airstrike that assassinated Hezbollah operations chief Ibrahim Aqil and 14 other members, Lebanese authorities said.

Among the most infamous bungled efforts was Israel’s attempted assassination of Hamas political leader Khaled Mashaal in Jordan in 1997. Mossad agents using fake Canadian passports poisoned Mashaal outside of Hamas’ office in the capital Amman by holding a device to his ear.

Several agents were subsequently captured and, as Mashaal’s condition deteriorated, Jordan’s King Hussein — with the backing of then President Bill Clinton — pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into providing the antidote and saving Mashaal’s life.

Israel’s Wrath of God operations from 1972 onwards caused several notable civilian casualties. The commando squads hunting Palestinian militant leaders in Beirut in April 1973 killed two Lebanese police officers and one Italian citizen in their search for targets. Among them was Black September operations leader Muhammad Youssef al-Najjar, whose wife was also killed.

In July 1973, Mossad brought chaos to the small Norwegian town of Lillehammer in their search for Black September operations chief Ali Hassan Salameh.

Ahmed Bouchiki, a Moroccan waiter, was shot dead after agents falsely identified him as Salameh. Five Mossad agents were eventually convicted of the killing, and not returned to Israel until 1975.

A follow-up effort took place at a house in the southern Spanish city of Tarifa. Mossad agents reportedly killed a security guard but did not locate Salameh.

Israel finally killed Salameh in Beirut in 1979, detonating a bomb attached to a parked car as his convoy passed. Salameh died shortly after in hospital.

As well as his four bodyguards, the blast killed four bystanders and injured 16 more. Among the dead were a British student and a German nun.

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

(NEW YORK) — The climate crisis is not a distant threat; it’s happening right now and affecting what matters most to us. Hurricanes intensified by a warming planet and drought-fueled wildfires are destroying our communities. Rising seas and flooding are swallowing our homes. And record-breaking heatwaves are reshaping our way of life.

The good news is we know how to turn the tide and avoid the worst possible outcomes. However, understanding what needs to be done can be confusing due to a constant stream of climate updates, scientific findings, and critical decisions that are shaping our future.

That’s why the ABC News Climate and Weather Unit is cutting through the noise by curating what you need to know to keep the people and places you care about safe. We are dedicated to providing clarity amid the chaos, giving you the facts and insights necessary to navigate the climate realities of today — and tomorrow.

October record heat made more likely because of climate change

It may be fall, but it feels a lot like summer in much of the country. That has some people wondering: Is climate change responsible for these record-high temperatures? With climate attribution science, we can now answer that question and determine when human-amplified climate change is responsible for extreme weather events and the significance of that impact.

Using advanced computer models, climate attribution science takes a real-world weather event, such as a record high-temperature day or a hurricane, and compares it to the world where human-caused, post-industrial greenhouse gas emissions don’t exist. By comparing what is actually happening with what would have happened without human intervention, science can estimate how likely or severe a weather event has become due to climate change.

Climate Central, a nonprofit climate research and communications organization, uses climate attribution science to provide real-time data that shows “how much climate change influences the temperature on a particular day.” The information is displayed on a global interactive map called the Climate Shift Index.

For example, the Index showed that human-amplified climate change made Sunday’s record high in Tucson, Arizona of 98 degrees at least three times more likely. The same was true for Waco, Texas, which broke a record with 92-degree heat, and Mobile, Alabama, which hit a record 90 degrees.

Extreme heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in the U.S., with children and adults over 65 being among the most vulnerable to heat-related illnesses and death. And the average number of heat waves that major U.S. cities experience each year has doubled since the 1980s, according to the federal government’s Fifth National Climate Assessment.

-ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser

How crops will fare with 45% of the US experiencing drought

The U.S. is experiencing the driest fall on record, which could potentially impact the quality of upcoming autumn harvests, experts told ABC News.

About 77% of the mainland U.S. is abnormally dry, and almost half of the country is experiencing drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The spatial pattern of the dry conditions varies widely across the continent, Josue Medellin-Azuara, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of California Merced, told ABC News.

Improvement in the drought is not expected for most of the South, the Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest due to expected La Nina conditions this winter that would further reinforce the dryness, according to forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

However, a lot of the crops in these regions that harvest in the fall had good growing conditions throughout the summer and are in the process of being harvested, meaning overall output should not be heavily impacted, Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute and former chief economist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, told ABC News.

Read more here.

EPA cancels toxic pesticide used in growing produce

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said it’s canceling any product containing the pesticide dimethyl tetrachloroterephthalate (DCPA), also known as Dacthal.

According to the EPA, their decision is based on comprehensive scientific studies that indicate potential thyroid toxicity linked to DCPA. The agency says research suggests that exposure to this pesticide during pregnancy can lead to changes in thyroid hormone levels in unborn children. Studies cited by the EPA indicate that these hormonal changes could be associated with various health concerns, including low birth weight, impaired brain development and reduced IQ. That research suggests that these developmental challenges may also have long-term effects on motor skills.

DCPA is used in the industrial farming of broccoli, Brussels sprouts, cabbage and onions. While pregnant women working in agriculture are most at risk, pesticides can travel into neighboring communities via the air and runoff, putting non-agricultural workers at risk as well.

In a press release, EPA’s assistant administrator for the office of chemical safety and pollution prevention, Michal Freedhoff, wrote, “With the final cancellation of DCPA, we’re taking a definitive step to protect pregnant women and their unborn babies. The science showing the potential for irreversible harm to unborn babies’ developing brains, in addition to other lifelong consequences from exposure, demands decisive action to remove this dangerous chemical from the marketplace,” Freedhoff added.

-ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

(LONDON) — President Joe Biden will see out his term knowing that President-elect Donald Trump — a man he fought desperately hard to unseat in 2020 and called a “genuine danger to American security” — will succeed him.

Foreign policy has been central in Biden’s long political career. It will likewise form a major chunk of his legacy, as will the two wars — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Middle East conflagration sparked by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack — that erupted during his term.

Now less encumbered by political calculations — for himself or for Vice President Kamala Harris — and with only two months until Trump’s second inauguration, the outgoing president may have one last window to wield the power of the Oval Office in both theaters.

But with Trump looming above the outgoing Biden-Harris administration, American allies and enemies may be hesitant to engage with the outgoing administration.

European nations, for example, are already shifting focus to how best to court Trump, Leslie Vinjamuri of the British Chatham House think tank told ABC News.

“All these European leaders are very quickly reaching out,” she added. “They’re congratulating him. They want to talk with him. They want to work with him, because they understand that the stakes are extremely high and they clearly feel that by talking with him, they have an ability to influence policy and the outcome.”

“What they don’t want to do is to be seen to be making a deal with Joe Biden that undercuts whatever it is that Trump is going to do,” Vinjamuri added.

“It’s a very tricky position to be in, because if anything’s visible that cuts across what he wants to do, you as a leader risk being punished.”

Those at the top of American politics know that foreign policy success can accelerate careers and define legacies. Former President Richard Nixon infamously undermined President Lyndon B. Johnson’s efforts to negotiate an end to the Vietnam War during the 1968 election campaign for fear it would reduce his chances of victory.

Though he has already secured his second term, Trump appears unlikely to help the Biden administration with any foreign policy “wins” in its closing days.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty and room for maneuver — it’s highly unpredictable,” Vinjamuri said.

Russia and Ukraine

Russia’s war on Ukraine has dominated much of Biden’s presidency. He will leave office with Moscow’s forces holding large parts of Ukraine and still advancing, even if slowly and at huge cost.

“I think that now Biden can be much more decisive in support of Ukraine, especially when he sees that Trump will be the next president,” Oleksandr Merezhko — a member of Ukraine’s parliament and the chair of the body’s foreign affairs committee — told ABC News.

“Biden has his hands completely untied,” Merezhko added. “Now Biden is thinking about his legacy.”

“He might even try to take some decisions which will make irreversible changes in support of Ukraine — for example, he might lift all the restrictions on the use of the Western weapons on the territory of Russia,” Merezhko said. “And he might start the process of inviting Ukraine to join NATO.”

Merezkho acknowledged that progress on the NATO front might be ambitious. “Yes, he doesn’t have much time,” he said. “But he — with [National Security Adviser] Jake Sullivan and [Secretary of State] Antony Blinken — might do something creative to help Ukraine.”

It appears unlikely that Biden’s final months will bring Kyiv any closer to NATO membership. Ukrainian leaders are still pushing for an invitation to join the alliance despite fierce opposition from Russia — and hesitance among key alliance members. Allies have repeatedly said that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO,” but even top officials in Kyiv acknowledge this cannot happen amid war with Moscow.

The outgoing president may at least be able to ring fence much-needed funding for Kyiv.

Matthew Savill of the Royal United Services Institute think tank in the U.K., said Biden “might choose in his last months in office to use the remainder of the funding available for support to Ukraine under Presidential Drawdown Authority, amounting to over $5 billion.”

The Pentagon has already committed to rolling out new funding packages between now and January totaling some $9 billion. “That is consistent with how we’ve been doing this in the past,” Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh told journalists last week. “It’s something that we’ve done on a pretty regular, almost weekly, basis.”

Biden has also reportedly already decided to allow non-combat American defense contractors to work in Ukraine to maintain and repair U.S.-provided weaponry.

Yehor Cherniev — a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chairman of his country’s delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly — told ABC News that deeper sanctions on “Putin’s inner circle” are on Kyiv’s wish list, along with the delivery of all previously allocated aid, commitments for more, plus the end to restrictions on Western weapon use inside Russia.

Trump has suggested he would quickly end Russia’s invasion by threatening to cut off military aid to Kyiv unless it agrees to hand Moscow direct or indirect control of swaths of occupied territory in the south and east of the country.

As such, his election has raised concerns in Ukraine of an imminent sellout.

Merezhko, though, stressed the unpredictability of the president-elect. “Trump might become even more critical of Russia to show that all suspicions about him are groundless,” he said.

“We know that Trump loves his country and seeks to protect its interests in accordance with his vision,” Cherniev said. “Therefore, we are confident that the U.S. will not leave us alone with Russia, since this is not in the interests of the U.S. and the free world.”

“However, much will depend on Putin’s willingness to make concessions and compromises,” he added. “If the Russian dictator does not show due flexibility, I think Trump will increase his support for Ukraine.”

As to potential tensions between Trump and Biden in the coming months, Merezhko said, “Competition between them will continue.”

“For us, it would be better if they compete amongst themselves on who will do more for Ukraine.”

European nations, meanwhile, will be bracing for Trump while hoping to influence the president-elect’s take on the war.

Vinjamuri, of the Chatham House think tank, said Europeans will also be working closely with the Biden administration “to put in place everything that they can to keep Europe and Ukraine in as good a place as possible before Jan. 20, when Trump comes in and tries to negotiate a peace deal.”

“That means that getting Ukraine in the best position on the ground, because when you start negotiating a peace, a lot of what gets locked in is based on what land people hold,” she said.

The Middle East

The Biden administration’s pre-election Middle East diplomatic push does not appear to have made significant breakthroughs in either Gaza or Lebanon. Fierce ground fighting and devastating Israeli airstrikes continue on both fronts, with the toll of civilian dead and displaced growing ever larger.

The regional war began with Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack, which killed around 1,200 people in southern Israel and saw around 250 taken back to Gaza as hostages. Israel’s military response in the strip has killed some 43,600 people and injured more than 102,000, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. Israel’s airstrike and ground campaign in Lebanon has killed more than 3,000 since Oct. 8, 2023, Lebanese health officials say.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu replaced Defense Minister Yoav Gallant — one of his prime political rivals and an advocate for a cease-fire deal — on the eve of the U.S. election, reinforcing his position and entrenching his government’s commitment to what he has called “total victory.”

Hafed Al-Ghwell, senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute, Johns Hopkins University, told ABC News he has little expectation of peace during Biden’s final months. “I don’t think he has any incentive to do anything,” Hafed said.

“In the case of Israel and Palestine, Biden has taken not just a political stand but an ideological one, and there is no sign that he is going to change that,” Hafed added. “He has called himself a Zionist, and he had ample opportunity to stop this war. Even when the United Nations proposed a resolution to end the occupation, he didn’t support it.”

“It would be really controversial for an outgoing president to make any major decisions,” he continued.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu will be confident in the new White House’s backing in his suppression of Palestinian and Lebanese groups, as well as in his wider showdown with Iran.

Netanyahu “probably feels like he has a free run,” Vinjamuri said. “Even if Biden tried to push him, I’m not so sure he would be responsive, because he knows that Trump is now coming into office.”

Hafed suggested Netanyahu’s domestic concerns, too, will be driving his policy in the coming months. “He knows that the minute this war stops, the Israeli public won’t want him around,” he said. “So, he will continue the war in Lebanon and probably threaten Iran, knowing he will have the full support of Trump.”

Burcu Ozcelik at RUSI said the extent of Trump’s influence over Netanyahu tops “a complex list of unknowns.”

“Trump in recent weeks indicated that he was prepared to give Israel freer rein, provided that the war ended by the time he entered office,” he added.

Those living in the region will be left grappling with the fallout, Hafed continued. “For the people of the Middle East, Biden’s legacy is one of a bloodbath,” he said. “The region is bitter and battered.”

ABC News’ Luis Martinez contributed to this article.

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