Scientists were shocked by how warm it was in 2023. The following year was even hotter
Planet Observer/Universal Images Group via Getty Images
(LONDON) — How warm was 2024? By March, just three months into the year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had already estimated a 55% chance that 2024 would be the warmest year on record for the planet. By July, they gave it a 77% chance.
It was nearly certain by November.
Turns out, breaking the record was never really in doubt. Last year easily beat out the previous record holder, 2023, for the warmest year on record globally, according to data collected and analyzed by Copernicus Climate Change Service, part of the European Union’s climate research program and confirmed by NASA and NOAA scientists.
Copernicus said the global temperature for all of 2024 was 1.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level. NASA’s estimate came in slightly lower, with their scientists finding that the earth was 1.47 degrees Celsius warmer than in the mid-19th century. NOAA reported 1.46 degrees Celsius. There is a slight variation in the numbers because each scientific organization conducts its own analysis using different tools. However, the fact that the findings of three independent scientific agencies are so close demonstrates the strength of the data.
It was also a record year for the contiguous United States, according to NOAA. In 2024, the average temperature of the contiguous U.S. was 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit above average and the warmest in its 130-year record.
The year 2024 was the first complete year the planet was warmer than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to the pre-industrial average from 1850 to 1900. If that number sounds familiar, it’s because the historic Paris Agreement established a 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.
Global temperature was above the Paris Agreement threshold for 11 of 12 months, according to Copernicus. We’ve now had back-to-back record-breaking years for the warmest global temperature and each of the past 10 years has been one of the 10 warmest years on record.
While this is the first calendar year on record to top the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold, it’s not the first time the planet has passed that mark, including the 12-month global average temperature between February 2023 and January 2024 and the monthly global average temperature in February 2016.
Exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold over several months or even for a few years isn’t considered a failure to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal. The agreement looks at the global temperature average over multiple decades before making a final determination.
However, climate experts say short-term threshold breaches like we saw in 2024 are an important warning that record-breaking temperatures are likely to continue in upcoming decades if the world doesn’t reduce its emissions.
“All of the internationally produced global temperature datasets show that 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1850. Humanity is in charge of its own destiny but how we respond to the climate challenge should be based on evidence. The future is in our hands — swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, in a press statement.
What’s causing the warming?
Since last summer, the recent short-term spike in global temperatures has been fueled primarily by the El Niño event in the equatorial eastern Pacific. Record highs for global average temperature tend to occur during El Niño years.
But an El Niño alone isn’t causing the record-breaking warming, according to climate scientists. What happened in 2024 is that a short-term El Niño spike occurred on top of the gradual, long-term global warming trend primarily driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, we’ve seen global warming accelerate during both El Niño and non-El Niño seasons.
“The defining factor in the evolution of many key climate indicators in 2024 has been the increasing global temperature, which is largely associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, a consequence of human activities,” said Copernicus.
Copernicus data shows that in 2024, the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached the highest annual levels ever recorded.
“Our data points clearly to a steady global increase of greenhouse gas emissions and these remain the main agent of climate change,” added Laurence Rouil, director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service.
While human-produced greenhouse gas emissions and El Niño were key contributors to the 2024 record, some scientists believe there is something else at play as well.
One possibility is that the planet is a victim of its own success in curbing air pollution. In recent decades, regulations, including one in 2020 that drastically cut the amount of sulfur dioxide being released by ships, have significantly reduced the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere.
Aerosols are tiny particles that can reflect sunlight back into space and reduce global temperatures. But their concentrations are now greatly diminished. According to the EPA, U.S. sulfur dioxide emissions have dropped 94% since 1980. The burning of fossil fuels by power plants and other industrial facilities is the largest source of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere.
While this means cleaner air, fewer atmospheric aerosols also results in a greater amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface creating a heating effect. Some research suggests that this may have contributed to recent warm Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures.
Some climate experts believe the January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcano may be playing a role in our warming trend. This eruption released an unprecedented amount of water vapor into Earth’s atmosphere, according to NASA.
Typically, volcanic eruptions cool the Earth’s surface by emitting sulfur dioxide, which transforms into sunlight-reflecting aerosols. However, the 2022 eruption was different, as it released a substantial amount of water vapor—a potent greenhouse gas that traps heat in the atmosphere.
A study published in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate, found that this event could have a significant impact on surface temperatures around the world, triggering warming of over 1.5°C in some regions, while cooling others by around 1°C. However, other studies investigating the eruption have come to very different conclusions.
In July 2024, research published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere concluded that most of the volcano’s effects dissipated by the end of 2023. Experts say that the atmospheric aerosol data used in the calculations could be behind the contradicting conclusions.
Copernicus said the total amount of water vapor in the atmosphere hit a record high in 2024.
Climate scientists say one thing is certain. As long as we continue to burn fossil fuels in large amounts, we will continue to see temperatures increasing globally.
To make that point, Andrew Dessler, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M shared on social media an email template he reuses each year when reporters ask him about the global temperatures.
His auto reply reads, “No, this is not surprising — it is exactly in line with predictions. Here is a comment you can use for your story: Every year for the rest of your life will be one of the hottest in the record.”
So certain of the trends, Dessler concludes by saying that this year “will end up being among the coldest years of this century. Enjoy it while it lasts.”
High hopes with the Paris Agreement
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. When the historic Paris Agreement was signed in 2016, then-President Barack Obama said, “Today, the world meets the moment. And if we follow through on the commitments that this agreement embodies, history may well judge it as a turning point for our planet.”
But in large part, the world hasn’t met the moment nor followed through on its commitments.
In October, the United Nations Environment Programme published a report aptly titled, “No more hot air … please!” which found the world has made little progress in reversing the use of fossil fuels and faces twice as much warming as agreed to during the Paris Climate Agreement.
The World Meteorological Organization said carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by more than 11% in just two decades, making 2023 a record for the amount of this greenhouse gas currently in our atmosphere.
So, it was little surprise when researchers at Climate Action Tracker, an independent project tracking government action on climate change, declared that efforts to curb climate change have “flatlined” since 2021.
As leaders fail to take decisive action, the consequences of record-break warming take their toll on lives and property.
These extreme weather events, which ranged from severe storms to hurricanes to wildfires, killed at least 418 people and impacted large swaths of the country.
Human-amplified climate change has led to the significant warming of the oceans, which provides the energy hurricanes need to intensify. Hurricanes Beryl and Milton rapidly intensified over unusually warm ocean water, made several hundred times more likely due to human-amplified climate change.
A recent study from Climate Central found that every Atlantic hurricane in 2024 saw an increased maximum wind speed, ranging from 9 to 28 mph, because human-amplified climate change resulted in elevated ocean temperatures. The researchers said it’s unlikely Beryl and Milton would have reached Category 5 status without the impact of climate change.
While the severe impact of hurricanes and wildfires is evident in the images of mass destruction, extreme heat is actually the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States.
Research has discovered that children and adults over 65 are among the most vulnerable to heat-related illnesses and death and the Journal of the American Medical Association found that heat deaths in the United States have nearly doubled since 1999 and represent a 63% increase in death rates caused by heat between 1999-2023.
Extreme heat also affects a child’s health, development, behavior, and learning ability. A 2020 study found that a 1°F hotter school year is associated with a 1% reduction in learning that year, based on test scores.
Because our oceans absorb the majority of the planet’s heat, global sea temperatures reached record highs for the first half of 2024 and remained well above average for the rest of the year. According to NOAA, this has fueled the largest ocean coral bleaching event on record impacting nearly 77% of coral reef areas.
Uncontrolled climate change is also putting nearly one-third of the world’s species at risk for extinction, according to a recent analysis by University of Connecticut researcher and biologist Mark Urban. He found that 160,000 species are already at risk because of changes in our climate.
Reasons to be hopeful
ABC News Chief Meteorologist and Chief Climate Correspondent Ginger Zee said, “1.5 degrees is bad, but it’s better than 1.6, which is better than 1.7.”
She added, “Each point one degree of warming creates more severe consequences for us, especially the most vulnerable. There’s still time to slow or even stop the warming curve if we stop burning fossil fuels and reduce our consumption.”
While we haven’t reached peak fossil fuel use yet, renewable energy, like wind and solar, is growing exponentially. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the “world added 50% more renewable capacity in 2023 than in 2022.” The IEA forecasts that the next five years will see the fastest growth yet for clean energy.
Although it was less than many countries wanted, world leaders attending the COP29 UN climate conference agreed to increase contributions to developing nations dealing with the effects of climate change to $300 billion annually by 2035, triple the previous goal of $100 billion.
Companies across the globe are working on ways to collect and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and keep it from being released during electricity generation and manufacturing. While these carbon capture and storage technologies are in their infancy and have yet to significantly contribute to reducing our greenhouse gas emissions, billions of dollars are being spent on these efforts.
There are also tens of thousands of green tech companies around the globe working on everything from clean fusion energy to harnessing the power of waves for electricity to making more efficient electric vehicle batteries.
(LONDON )– As Jahanzeb Wesa fled toward the Pakistani border in the middle of the night, he wondered if his career defending human rights would help protect him now that he was a refugee himself.
A 28-year-old Afghan journalist and women’s rights advocate, Wesa said he was attacked by a Taliban fighter while covering a women’s rights protest just after the fall of Kabul in August 2021. If he didn’t make it across the border, he said, he knew he would likely be killed.
“We worked for 20 years for a better future for Afghanistan,” he recalled thinking. “Why did we lose everything?”
But arriving in a new country brought no sense of safety.
Following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, some Afghan journalists said they have been in limbo waiting for humanitarian visas while living in exile in Pakistan, where they fled across the shared border when Kabul fell.
The Taliban’s violent suppression of criticism, along with draconian crackdowns on women’s rights, meant journalists who stayed in Afghanistan were at constant risk of being detained, tortured, disappeared or killed.
In Pakistan, unable to legally work and threatened with deportation through government ultimatums and face-to-face interactions, some Afghan journalists applied for visas from countries that promised to help Afghan refugees.
Almost three years later, many said they still have not received a decision.
In the meantime, their prospects in Pakistan are dire, several told ABC News.
Life in Pakistan
Several Afghan journalists living in Pakistan told ABC News that their fear of deportation is omnipresent.
Khatera, a journalist from northern Afghanistan who asked ABC News not to publish her last name for her safety, fled to Pakistan in April 2022 after the Taliban raided her newsroom, destroying radios and TVs.
“After that,” she said, “everything was a nightmare.”
Like many Afghan journalists in Pakistan, Khatera arrived on a tourist visa she had to renew every six months through a private travel agent. Visa renewals were sometimes denied without reason, and officials often asked for bribes, she said.
The Pakistani government did not reply to a request for comment.
Housing, health care and transportation in Pakistan can be prohibitively expensive for Afghans, whose tourist visas don’t allow them to work. Many rely on depleting savings, support from family members, or under-the-table jobs, according to those who spoke to ABC News. Given the economic strain, the biannual visa fee and the corresponding bribes present significant burdens, they said.
But not having proper documentation can bring serious consequences. “Anywhere you’re going, the police are asking about your valid documents,” said Khatera. They sometimes conduct nighttime home check-ins and try to deport those who can’t provide valid papers, she said.
Those disruptions to daily life don’t appear to be unique to journalists. A 2023 Human Rights Watch report declared a “humanitarian crisis” of Pakistani authorities committing widespread abuses, including mass detentions and property seizures, against Afghans in Pakistan. Over a month and a half, the report said, Pakistani authorities deported 20,000 Afghans and coerced over 350,000 more to leave on their own.
Afghan journalists regularly receive death threats from the regime at home over social media, Wesa said. “If I’m deported to Afghanistan,” he said, “the Taliban is waiting for me.”
“No journalist has been condemned to torture, disappearance, or death by the government of Afghanistan,” said a spokesperson for the Taliban-run Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, adding that “all citizens of the country are equal in the eyes of the law regardless of their position and profession.”
Some journalists said they also face a widespread mental health crisis. Rahman, an Afghan journalist who asked ABC News to use his middle name due to what he described as ongoing threats from the Taliban, struggles with worsening depression and anxiety. He said he fears for himself and his family, still in Kabul.
“It’s daily mental torture,” he said.
An endless wait
The conditions in Pakistan have spurred many Afghan journalists to apply for humanitarian visas from the U.S., Australia, the U.K. and other European countries. Yet, some have not heard back for about three years.
Wesa applied for an Australian humanitarian visa on Jan. 4, 2022, six months after he arrived in Pakistan. He supplemented his application with support letters from Reporters Without Borders, Amnesty International and other nongovernmental organizations stating his life was at risk, he told ABC News.
More than two years after filing his initial application, he has received a confirmation of receipt but no further updates, he said.
A departmental spokesperson from the Australian Department of Home Affairs said they “expect it will take at least 6 years from the date of receipt for processing to commence on [the applications] lodged in 2022, 2023, or 2024.”
“We will wait – there is no other way,” Wesa said in response. “I hope they help us as soon as possible.”
“Day by day, I’m faced with depression and health issues,” he said. “My only hope is that Australia will save my life.”
Rahman, who reported on women’s rights in Afghanistan, is saving up to apply for a family visa from Australia, where his fiancée lives. The process costs over $9,000. He said he believes a humanitarian visa application will not receive a response.
Requests for help from the French embassy and the U.N. have also yielded no results, he said.
“I believe these countries have always been for freedom and for democracy. They can help out,” he said. “I just wonder why it takes such a long time.”
Khatera applied for a visa from the Swiss embassy. It took a year and a half to receive the file number, she said. She was told she needed close relatives in the country, but otherwise, they would likely not be able to help.
“I’m getting depression,” she said. “I’m just trying to fight.”
Every Afghan journalist in exile interviewed by ABC News said they continue to receive threats from the Taliban over social media and fear for their lives every day.
The Taliban denied sending the threats, saying “the government and officials of Afghanistan have not threatened any journalists.”
Broken promises
Afghan journalists waiting in worsening conditions for responses to their visa applications said they feel that Western countries have broken their promises to help Afghan refugees.
The United States expanded a resettlement program for Afghan refugees in 2021 to include journalists and humanitarian workers who had helped the United States. However, as of 2023, The Associated Press reported that only a small portion of applicants had been resettled.
The U.S. State Department did not respond to a request for comment.
The Afghan Pro Bono Initiative, a partnership providing free legal representation to Afghan refugees, published a 2023 report entitled “Two Years of Empty Promises.” The report found that the U.K. resettlement programs for Afghan refugees were fraught with delays, understaffing, administrative hurdles, narrow eligibility and technical issues.
Earlier this year, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and other NGOs called on Western countries to adopt prima facie refugee status for Afghan women and girls, which would grant refugee status without the need for individual assessments, potentially streamlining the application process and decreasing lengthy wait times.
Despite the dragging wait times and the pervasive hopelessness, many of the 170 Afghan journalists in exile in Pakistan continue to speak out against the Taliban.
Wesa’s X account includes frequent posts about Afghanistan — legal updates, protest videos and women singing to resist what they describe as draconian Taliban policies.
“In any country, I will stand for Afghan women,” he said. “I will risk my life for them.”
(LONDON) — The ceasefire in Lebanon is holding despite ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets, which Israeli officials say are responses to ceasefire violations by the Iranian-backed militant group.
The Israel Defense Forces continues its intense airstrike and ground campaigns in Gaza, particularly in the north of the devastated Palestinian territory.
Tensions also remain high between Israel and Iran after tit-for-tat long-range strikes in recent months and threats of further military action from both sides.
IDF says it’s hitting targets in Lebanon
The IDF said it is striking targets in southern Lebanon on Monday after Hezbollah officials said earlier they fired on an Israeli target.
“We will respond decisively to Hezbollah’s severe violation of the ceasefire —and will continue to do so. We have plans and targets ready to be carried out and at any given moment,” the Chief of the General Staff, LTG Herzi Halevi, said Monday.
Hezbollah says it fired on Israeli target in southern Lebanon
Hezbollah officials said Monday they fired on an Israeli target in southern Lebanon, accusing Israel of “repeated violations” of the ceasefire agreement.
The Israel Defense Forces said Hezbollah launched two projectiles toward the area of Har Dov. There were no injuries, with the projectiles falling in open space, the IDF said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened a forceful response, calling it a “serious violation of the ceasefire.”
“We are determined to continue enforcing the ceasefire, and to respond to any violation by Hezbollah — minor or serious,” Netanyahu said.
Family of dead Israeli-American soldier release statement
The family of Omer Maxim Neutra, the Israeli-American soldier who had been believed to be in Hamas captivity, released a statement Monday after it was confirmed he was killed Oct. 7.
“Our hearts are shattered with this devastating news,” the family said. “The Neutra family is deeply grieving and are requesting the public, who has shown great support throughout this journey, to please respect their privacy until they are formally ready to announce the next steps.”
“May Omer’s memory be a blessing,” they added.
Netanyahu vows to recover body of US-Israeli soldier from Gaza
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife, Sara Netanyahu, said in a joint statement Monday they “will not rest or be silent” until the body of killed U.S.-Israeli soldier Omer Neutra is recovered from the Gaza Strip.
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed Monday that Neutra, 21, was killed during Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack into southern Israel and his body taken back into Gaza. Neutra — who was originally from New York — was previously thought to have been taken hostage. He was serving as a tank platoon commander at the time of the attack.
Neutra “fought fiercely at the head of his soldiers to defend the settlements surrounding Gaza, until he fell.” Netanyahu’s statement said. “We share in the family’s heavy grief,” it added.
“We will continue to act resolutely and tirelessly until we return all of our captives — the living and the dead,” the statement said.
There are still three American citizens thought to be alive as hostages inside Gaza.
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller and Joe Simonetti
Israeli drone strike injures Lebanon soldier, army says
The Lebanese Armed Forces said on Monday that an Israeli drone “targeted an army bulldozer while it was carrying out fortification work” at a military center in the northeastern Hermel region close to the border with Syria.
The attack “resulted in one soldier being moderately injured,” the army wrote in a post to X.
The Israel Defense Forces has not yet commented on the alleged strike.
-ABC News’ Victoria Beaule
IDF confirms death of US-Israeli hostage
The Israel Defense Forces on Monday confirmed that missing U.S.-Israeli soldier Omer Maxim Neutra, 21, was among those killed in Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack into southern Israel.
Neutra was believed taken into Gaza as a hostage by militants during the attack. But the IDF said Monday he was killed during the Oct. 7 assault and his body was taken by militants.
Neutra — originally from New York — was serving as a tank platoon commander in the 77th Battalion of the 7th Brigade at the time of the Hamas attack. He was among hundreds of security forces personnel killed during the assault.
Neutra’s parents have been campaigning for a hostage release deal in the U.S., their activity including public appearances at the White House and the Capitol.
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller
IDF reports ‘several operations’ against Hezbollah in Lebanon
The Israel Defense Forces said Sunday it launched “several operations” targeting Hezbollah fighters that it claimed posed a direct threat to Israel “in violation of the ceasefire agreement.”
Among the operations was an attack on armed militants operating close to a church in southern Lebanon, the IDF said.
Those killed “were active in the ground defense, anti-tank and artillery formations in the sector, and took part in the fighting while using the church,” it wrote in a post to X.
The 60-day ceasefire that went into effect last week is holding despite continued sporadic fighting and Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon.
The deal stipulates that IDF troops will withdraw from their positions in Lebanon during the 60-day window and that Hezbollah forces will withdraw from the region south of the Litani River.
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller
Hostage Edan Alexander’s father makes an appeal to Biden, Trump and Netanyahu
The father of American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander issued an emotional request on Sunday to President Biden, President-elect Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, telling the leaders to act now to bring the hostages home “before it’s too late.”
A day after seeing his son for the first time in a year in a propaganda video released by Hamas’ military wing, Adi Alexander of New Jersey spoke at a rally in New York City’s Central Park, saying, “No father should hear his child plead for his life like that.”
“President Biden, President Trump, Prime Minster Netanyahu, I call on all of you to act,” Alexander said. “This is not a moment for politics or hesitation. This is a moment of courage, collaboration and decisive action.”
He appealed to Biden to use the United States’ influence “to negotiate a deal before it’s too late.”
Directing his words to Trump, he said, “You do not have to wait until January to make an impact. The world is watching. Act now.”
To Netanyahu, Alexander said, “The fate of the hostages, including my son, rests in your hands. You have the power to bring them home. Don’t let this opportunity slip away.”
Edan Alexander, 20, was serving in the Israeli military and stationed near Gaza when he was taken captive by Hamas terrorists on Oct. 7, 2023.
The White House issued a statement, saying, it has been in touch with the Alexander family and called the hostage video a “cruel reminder of Hamas’s terror against citizens of multiple countries, including our own.”
“The war in Gaza would stop tomorrow and the suffering of Gazans would end immediately– and would have ended months ago– if Hamas agreed to release the hostages,” White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said in a statement. “It has refused to do so, but as the President said last week, we have a critical opportunity to conclude the deal to release the hostages, stop the war, and surge humanitarian assistance into Gaza. This deal is on the table now.”
Netanyahu to hold meeting to discuss hostages, Lebanon, Syria tonight: Official
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a security meeting Sunday night to discuss the issue of the hostages, as well as Lebanon and Syria, an Israeli official told ABC News.
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller
UN pauses aid deliveries to Gaza amid safety concerns
UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini on Sunday announced a pause to Gaza aid deliveries via the strip’s main crossing point, citing serious threats to the safety of staff.
The road out of the Kerem Shalom crossing “has not been safe for months,” Lazzarini said in a post to X.
“This difficult decision comes at a time hunger is rapidly deepening,” Lazzarini said. “The delivery of humanitarian aid must never be dangerous or turn into an ordeal.”
The UNRWA chief said a “large convoy of aid trucks was stolen by armed gangs” on Nov. 16, with several more aid trucks taken on Saturday.
Lazzarini also said that Israel’s “ongoing siege” of Gaza, “hurdles” put in place by Israeli authorities and “political decisions to restrict the amounts of aid” were among the other problems facing U.N. staff.
“The humanitarian operation has become unnecessarily impossible,” he wrote. “The responsibility of protection of aid workers [and] supplies is with the state of Israel as the occupying power.”
(NEW YORK) — The climate crisis is not a distant threat; it’s happening right now and affecting what matters most to us. Hurricanes intensified by a warming planet and drought-fueled wildfires are destroying our communities. Rising seas and flooding are swallowing our homes. And record-breaking heat waves are reshaping our way of life.
The good news is we know how to turn the tide and avoid the worst possible outcomes. However, understanding what needs to be done can be confusing due to a constant stream of climate updates, scientific findings, and critical decisions that are shaping our future.
That’s why the ABC News Climate and Weather Unit is cutting through the noise by curating what you need to know to keep the people and places you care about safe. We are dedicated to providing clarity amid the chaos, giving you the facts and insights necessary to navigate the climate realities of today — and tomorrow.
America will need a ‘shocking’ amount of power in the coming years, according to new report
The United States will need a “shocking” amount of power in the coming years, according to a new report from the consulting firm Grid Strategies.
“The era of flat power demand is behind us,” the report found. “Over the past two years, the five-year load growth forecast has increased by almost a factor of five.”
That means the country’s demand for electricity is estimated to increase by nearly 16% by 2029.
The report cites data centers and manufacturing as the primary drivers of the increased demand but also finds that oil and gas production and the electrification of buildings and vehicles are adding to the growth.
“There are real risks to America’s economic, technological and geopolitical leadership if the grid can’t keep up with demand,” the report warns.
America’s increased demand for electricity will significantly impact the country’s efforts to fight climate change. According to the EPA, electricity generation is responsible for 25% of greenhouse gas emissions. And while more clean energy projects are coming online each year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says 60% of U.S. electricity still comes from burning fossil fuels.
The study’s authors say their findings could be an underestimate or overestimate due to the complexity of the electric system and the rapid growth in demand for electricity.
-ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser
Politicians and climate activists say Trump’s victory wouldn’t stop their efforts
At a Tuesday night event, politicians and climate activists, including actress Jane Fonda, delivered a strong message to the incoming Trump administration: they will continue fighting for climate progress and Trump’s agenda will not stop them.
Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass. told a crowd gathered at George Washington University, “It is time, after one month, for us to get up and begin to fight,” adding, “The power of this movement is undeniable, and unlike the incoming president, our record of victory is unimpeachable.”
Despite the incoming administration’s “doomsday day one agenda,” activists and advocates from the climate movement would push for change in Congress, in board rooms and in the streets, he said.
“The planet is running a fever,” Markey said. “There are no emergency rooms for planets, so we have to engage in the preventative care which is necessary to save this planet and the people on this planet, and we know we’re going to face an uphill battle with a climate denier in chief.”
Climate activist and actress Jane Fonda called on those who care about climate progress to stand together and welcome new people into the movement’s tent – even those who voted for President-elect Trump.
“Seventy-eight million Americans voted for Trump. They are not all part of the MAGA movement,” Fonda said. “Many of them did so because they’re suffering financially, they’re scared, they’re confused and they’re angry because the neo-liberal leaders of the Democratic Party have ignored them for so many decades, and so they took a chance on the burn-it-all-down option.”
Fonda, a longtime activist, became involved in the climate movement during the first Trump administration by hosting “Fire Drill Fridays” in front of the U.S. Capitol. These weekly protests often led to her arrest.
At Tuesday night’s event, Fonda wore the same bright red coat she wore during her “fire drills,” noting that it was her “blanket and pillow when I turned 82 in jail.”
“Standing here today in my red coat, I hereby declare myself part of the resistance,” Fonda said.
Fonda also encouraged listeners to focus on down-ballot races and initiatives to address climate change.
Since becoming a climate activist, Fonda has started a political action committee dedicated to electing “climate champions.” In 2024, she said the PAC endorsed 154 candidates, telling the audience at the event that her PAC’s candidates won at a ratio of two-to-one.
Local activists, like Roishetta Ozane, spoke about the importance of not forgetting the communities that are feeling the impacts of climate change firsthand, saying, “These are our real lives and we are real people.”
In her home state of Louisiana, Ozane has been advocating against the implementation and use of liquified natural gas pipelines, arguing that her area has suffered adverse health and environmental effects from local LNG production efforts.
One of the projects Ozane has advocated against, Calcasieu Pass 2, which would represent an expansion of one of the existing LNG projects in the area, was just delayed by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission earlier this week.
-ABC News Climate Unit’s Kelly Livingston
UN plastic treaty talks fail to reach an agreement
The world uses a lot of plastic — 460 million metric tons of it are produced each year, according to the United Nations. And the International Union for Conservation of Nature says an estimated 20 million metric tons of plastic end up as trash in our environment.
So when more than 3,300 delegates from 170 countries and 440 organizations met in South Korea at the end of November to hash out an agreement to reduce the production of plastics, environmentalists hoped that something might finally get done to address the problem. It didn’t.
The fifth U.N. Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee failed to reach a binding agreement on plastic production and waste for the fifth time since the group began meeting in November 2022.
Nearly 100 countries came to an agreement that would limit plastic production and establish an accountability method ensuring all parties would meet reduction goalposts. Some oil-rich nations pushed back, however, wanting to focus on plastic pollution instead. U.N. rules require a consensus among all delegates for any plan to be binding. That didn’t happen.
“It is clear there is persisting divergence in critical areas and more time is needed for these areas to be addressed,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of the U.N. Environment Program.
Most plastic is not recycled. Instead, it ends up in landfills and pollutes marine bodies like oceans and rivers worldwide. According to an OECD report from 2022, only 9% of plastics worldwide get recycled, and since 1970, 139 metric tons have ended up in our oceans, rivers and lakes. A 2021 study revealed that the plastics industry’s contribution to climate change will exceed coal’s by 2030.
While countries failed to reach an agreement on capping the production of plastic, they did agree to continue talks in 2025.
“As we look ahead to 2025, and navigate what an INC 5.2 could look like, countries must come to the table ready to fight for our future,” said Erin Simon, vice president and head of plastic waste and business at World Wildlife Fund. “The current draft has some of the ingredients for success, but we can’t back down on delivering a legally binding text that finally puts us on a course to eliminate plastic pollution.”
“Let us always remember that our purpose is noble and urgent: to reverse and remedy the severe effects of plastic pollution on ecosystems and human health,” said Luis Vayas Valdivieso, chair of the U.N.’s international plastics negotiating committee.
-ABC News’ Charlotte Slovin
Study identifies heat wave hot spots across the globe
It’s all but certain that 2024 will be Earth’s warmest year on record, surpassing 2023 as the previous record holder. While this troubling milestone measures global average temperatures, a new study from the Columbia Climate School found that unexplained extreme heat wave hot spots are popping up in specific areas worldwide.
Calling it “a striking new phenomenon,” the study’s authors write, “Distinct regions are seeing repeated heat waves that are so extreme, they fall far beyond what any model of global warming can predict or explain.”
According to the study, “The large and unexpected margins by which recent regional-scale extremes have broken earlier records have raised questions about the degree to which climate models can provide adequate estimates of relations between global mean temperature changes and regional climate risks.”
The study identified these hot spots on every continent except Antarctica. Researchers say the heat waves have mostly been a recent phenomenon, occurring primarily over the last five years, although some date back to the early 2000s and before.
Central China, Japan, Korea, the Arabian peninsula, eastern Australia and certain parts of Africa were the hardest-hit areas. The study, however, found that parts of Texas and New Mexico were also impacted, just not as much as the other regions.
“This is about extreme trends that are the outcome of physical interactions we might not completely understand,” said lead author Kai Kornhuber, an adjunct scientist at the Columbia Climate School’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, in a statement. “These regions become temporary hothouses.”
The researchers say it’s unclear what is causing these hot spots. While one study has pointed to wobbles in the jet stream as a possible culprit, the authors say that the hypothesis doesn’t explain all the extremes.
Regardless of the cause, heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States. The Journal of the American Medical Association found that heat deaths in the U.S. have nearly doubled since 1999 and account for a 63% increase in health-related death rates between 1999-2023.
“Due to their unprecedented nature, these heat waves are usually linked to very severe health impacts, and can be disastrous for agriculture, vegetation and infrastructure,” said Kornhuber. “We’re not built for them, and we might not be able to adapt fast enough.”
-ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser
How to have a more sustainable Thanksgiving
The amount of food consumed every year at Thanksgiving is actually associated with a large carbon footprint, according to experts.
Although Thanksgiving may be the holiday best known for indulging, there are ways to enjoy your favorite meal of the year while keeping the environment in mind.
“The Thanksgiving meal is more than just the food,” Lauri Wright, director of nutrition programs at the University of South Florida’s College of Public Health, told ABC News. “There’s so much meaning [and] emotions associated with it.”
The average Thanksgiving dinner has a carbon footprint of about 103 pounds of carbon dioxide, according to the Climate Trade, an environmental solutions platform.
Maine joins list of states suing fossil fuel companies over climate change
Maine has become the latest in a growing number of states to sue the fossil fuel industry over the impacts of global warming.
Maine Attorney General Aaron Frey accused major fossil fuel companies of deceiving Mainers for decades about the impact their product has on human-amplified climate change.
“For over half a century, these companies chose to fuel profits instead of following their science to prevent what are now likely irreversible, catastrophic climate effects,” Frey said in a statement.
The lawsuit, filed in state court on Tuesday, alleges the defendants knew as early as the 1960s that an increasing use of fossil fuels could potentially bring devastating consequences to Maine. The state argues the companies not only failed to warn residents about the consequences, but knowingly concealed their knowledge about the long-term negative impacts that Maine’s people, environment and economy could face.
The filing states the companies focused on creating public doubt by launching public relations campaigns targeting the science of climate change and the impacts of burning fossil fuels. It is seeking financial compensation for both past and future climate-related damages and for the companies to cease their ongoing deception in Maine.
“They burdened the state and our citizens with the consequences of their greed and deception,” Frey said.
Maine Gov. Janet Mills applauded the attorney general’s actions, saying in a statement that “for decades, big oil companies have made record profits, taking billions out of the pockets of Maine people while deliberately deceiving them about the harmful impacts of fossil fuels — impacts that Maine people see and feel every day.”
Maine joins a growing list of more than 20 states — including California, Minnesota, Massachusetts and Vermont — that have brought similar types of lawsuits to date. Earlier this year, Vermont’s Climate Superfund Act became law, seeking financial accountability for climate change-related damages brought by fossil fuel companies. However, due to stipulations in the law and likely lawsuits, it’s expected to be several years before any potential first charge to fossil fuel companies would be attempted.
-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck
Soaking rain eases drought in parts of U.S. but dryness still a problem for much of the country
Widespread drought conditions are still a significant concern across the country, with parts of the Northeast, northern Plains and Southwest currently experiencing some of the worst impacts, according to a U.S. Drought Monitor update released Wednesday.
Overall, more than 40% of the contiguous United States remains in a drought. This is an improvement, however, from the beginning of the month when more than half of the lower 48 faced drought conditions. Recent heavy rain along the West Coast and parts of the Midwest brought significant drought relief to portions of Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin and Illinois.
As a result, drought coverage decreased from 45.48% to 41.45% versus last week. While some regions experienced a notable improvement, the recent soaking in the Northeast was only enough to pause the fire danger and trend of intensifying drought conditions — for now.
The current drought situation in the Northeast took months to evolve, and it will take several more rounds of significant rainfall over the span of weeks or even months to completely eliminate the widespread drought in the region.
After a few rounds of beneficial rain, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center says a large part of the country will likely experience below-average precipitation in early December, particularly in the West, Plains and East Coast.
Much of the western Gulf Coast and northern Plains could see above-average rainfall during this period. Drought relief across the country will, at the very least, take a pause through the beginning of next month.
-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck
Colorado River at a tipping point over drought threat, new study finds
A major water supplier in the West is once again in the spotlight for its unpredictable future.
The Colorado River, the water source for 40 million people across the west, is in a worse state than previously believed, according to a recent study published in Earth’s Future.
Drought and dry conditions, compounded by climate change, put the Colorado River in greater jeopardy, the study’s authors said.
“It doesn’t take a lot of climate change to put the system into a very vulnerable future,” said Dr. Patrick Reed, a civil and environmental engineer at Cornell University and co-author of the study.
Colorado’s West Slope River Basins “are essential water sources for the Colorado River and play a vital role in supporting the state of Colorado’s local economy and natural environment,” according to the study. The West Slope River Basins contribute nearly 70% of the streamflow deliveries to Lake Powell, the nation’s second-largest reservoir.
But drought has significantly depleted Lake Powell’s water supply, leading to the first-ever water shortage in the Upper Colorado River Basin in 2021 and more dependence on the West Slope Basin supply.
“The Colorado River is extremely stressed and overallocated,” Reed said.
The Colorado River supplies water to seven states and Northern Mexico. Agreements about how the water is divided are up for renegotiation in 2026.
-ABC News’ Charlotte Slovin
US fuel economy hits record high as CO2 emissions hit record low, EPA says
U.S. fuel economy reached a record high in 2023 at the same time that greenhouse emissions reached a record low, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s annual Automotive Trends Report released Monday.
The report also states that model year 2023 electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles have reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 11%.
“This report provides a critical data-driven affirmation that strong, technology-neutral standards can underpin environmental progress while saving drivers money at the pump,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement.
New vehicle CO2 emissions are now at a record low of 319 grams per mile, which reduces the impact on climate change. Battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, combined with fuel cell vehicles, are expected to reach 14.8% of overall vehicle production in 2024, a trend that is expected to grow across the industry, according to the report.
Passenger cars and light trucks accounted for 17% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, underscoring the need for further reductions across the industry, experts said.
— ABC News Climate Unit’s Dan Manzo
In surprise turn, world leaders reach $300B climate cash deal at COP29
In a surprising turn of events, world leaders at the United Nations climate conference in Azerbaijan announced they have reached agreement on a new deal that calls for wealthy countries to contribute $300 billion annually to help developing nations deal with the effects of climate change.
After fears no deal would be reached as talks broke down, the announcement came around 3 a.m. local time and was met with a standing ovation and a wave of relief.
The deal in question was the “climate cash” agreement, under which developed nations will contribute an annual target of $300 billion to help climate-vulnerable, developing countries deal with the consequences of climate change.
President Joe Biden on Saturday praised the agreement, while touting his administration’s work on climate change, saying “nobody” can undo America’s “clean energy revolution,” in an apparent swipe at President-elect Donald Trump.
“Today at COP29, thanks in part to the tireless efforts of a robust US delegation, the world reached agreement on another historic outcome,” Biden said in a statement, going on to say the “ambitious” deal “will help mobilize the level of finance – from all sources – that developing countries need to accelerate the transition to clean, sustainable economies, while opening up new markets for American-made electric vehicles, batteries, and other products.”
Biden, who is leaving office in less than two months, said states and cities will continue to tackle climate change — notably not mentioning the federal government, while adding that no one can overturn progress on the issue, repeating something he said last week while visiting the Amazon.
In a statement, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he had “hoped for a more ambitious outcome” on both financing and climate change mitigation efforts from the conference.
“But this agreement provides a base on which to build,” he said in the statement. “It must be honoured in full and on time. Commitments must quickly become cash. All countries must come together to ensure the top-end of this new goal is met.”
Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s minister of ecology and natural resources who served as the COP29 president, said in a statement the $300 billion goal “represents the best possible deal we could reach.”
The U.N. climate conference, known as COP29, was anticipated to be the “finance COP” — the site of negotiations to determine how much fighting the climate crisis would cost and who would pay for it.
In 2015, under the Paris Agreement, participating countries agreed to set climate financing goals in 2024 that would account for the needs of developing countries.
-ABC News’ Victoria Beaule, Fritz Farrow and Jack Moore
UN climate conference delegates struggle to reach agreement on financing the climate fight
The U.N. climate conference in Azerbaijan was supposed to be the “finance COP.” World leaders would determine how much fighting the climate crisis would cost and who would pay for it.
However, as COP29 winds down, many developing countries and nongovernmental organizations are dissatisfied with the current language in the proposed climate finance agreement.
In 2015, under the Paris Agreement, participating countries agreed to set a New Collective Quantified Goal, or NCQG, on climate finance in 2024 that would account for the needs of developing countries. Basically, how much money would each nation spend to support developing countries that are being disproportionately impacted by climate?
While several versions of the new NCQG have been proposed, a final agreement is still out of reach. The latest text calls for a $1.3 trillion climate finance investment annually until 2035 but only requires a $250 billion investment from developed countries.
“With a paltry climate finance offer of $250 billion annually, and a deadline to deliver as late as 2035, richer nations, including EU countries, and the United States are dangerously close to betraying the Paris Agreement,” Dr. Rachel Cleetus, policy director for the Climate and Energy Program, Union of Concerned Scientists, said. “This is nowhere near the robust and desperately needed funding lower income nations deserve to combat climate change.”
The latest NCQG language lays out a variety of funding sources that can play a part in reaching global climate finance goals, including multilateral development banks, or MDBs, that can distribute funds through grants and concessional loans for developing countries and adaptation projects.
However, the text does not make clear whether funds from MDBs are part of reaching the $250 billion goal or supplement that goal. It also includes provisions allowing for voluntary contributions from developing countries.
“The central demand coming into COP29 was for a strong, science-aligned climate finance commitment, which this appalling text utterly fails to provide,” Cleetus said. “Wealthier nations seem content to shamefully renege on their responsibility and cave in to fossil fuel interests while unjustly foisting the costs of deadly climate extremes on countries that have contributed the least to the climate crisis.”
World Resources Institute Global Climate, Economics and Finance Program Director Melanie Robinson agrees, releasing a statement Friday saying, “Developed countries should aim higher than the $250 billion they’ve put on the table.”
“We should leave Baku with a goal that at least gets to $300 billion a year by 2035,” Robinson said.
Tasneem Essop, executive director of Climate Action Network International, called the latest draft text “an insult to the people in the Global south.”
“This latest draft text on the New Collective Quantified Goal is not just a joke — it’s an insult to the people in the Global South living on the front line of the climate crisis,” Essop said. “In the meantime, millions of people’s lives are at risk. We are angry, but we will keep fighting until the end.”
-ABC News Climate Unit’s Kelly Livingston and ABC News’ Charlotte Slovin
October was 2nd warmest month on record, NOAA announces
If you thought October was unusually warm, it isn’t your imagination. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that last month was the second warmest October since the U.S. began keeping records in 1895. It was also the second driest, with less than an inch of rainfall. It should be more than double that.
October was also the second warmest on record globally when looking at land and ocean temperatures. And it was the warmest ever for land temperature alone.
According to the NOAA, there is now a 99% chance that 2024 will be the warmest year on record globally.
This new data continues 2024’s streak of having some of the driest and warmest months on record for states across the U.S.
The heat and high levels of dryness across the country have left 87% of the United States in dry or drought conditions. Widespread drought increases the risk of wildfires, as soil with no moisture burns more easily.
Mark Svoboda, director of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, calls the combination of heat and dryness a “double whammy.”
New Jersey and Delaware had their driest Octobers on record, and much of the Atlantic Seaboard experienced Octobers with precipitation levels much below average. The region has seen hundreds of wildfires due to these conditions, with New Jersey experiencing a 1,300% increase in fire calls.
In October, much of the United States experienced drought, with dryness expanding and increasing in the Northeast, Great Lakes, Northern Rockies and Plains, Southeast, Deep South, Southwest and the Hawaiian islands.
NOAA says that by February 2025, drought conditions should improve in the Pacific Northwest, Ohio Valley and Western Great Lakes, but are likely to expand and intensify in the Southwest and Atlantic Seaboard.
Despite the destruction they cause, tropical storms can “make or break” drought for the winter, said Svoboda. Without intense rains earlier in the year, there is little or no moisture in the ground come winter.
The dryness impacts wheat crops and livestock forage, potentially increasing food prices. Dryer soil makes wheat crops more vulnerable in colder temperatures because that soil can freeze and kill the plant, decreasing the harvest for the following year.
NOAA also reported that in 2024, 24 different billion-dollar weather and climate disasters impacted the United States through the end of October. This number is only second to last year, with a record 27 individual billion-dollar weather and climate disasters by October.
