Jobs report set to offer gauge of economic health amid Trump’s tariffs
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(NEW YORK) — Hiring data to be released on Friday will offer a gauge of the nation’s economic health, just a day after President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs triggered a major stock selloff.
The jobs report, which details employer activity in March, is set to provide a snapshot of staff cuts imposed by the federal government last month amid cost-cutting efforts undertaken by the Department of Government Efficiency.
The fresh data may also offer clues about possible fallout from a previous round of tariffs imposed on Mexico, Canada and China at the outset of March.
Economists expect the U.S. to have added 140,000 jobs in March. That figure would mark a slight slowdown from hiring in the previous month, but it would still amount to solid job growth.
Despite escalating trade tensions and market turbulence since Trump took office in January, the economy remains in solid shape by several key measures.
The unemployment rate stands at a historically low level. Meanwhile, inflation sits well below a peak attained in 2022, though price increases register nearly a percentage point higher than the Fed’s goal of 2%.
“The economy is strong,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference in Washington, D.C., last month.
Tariffs announced earlier this week, however, threaten to derail hiring and worsen inflation, multiple analysts previously told ABC News.
The far-reaching levies increase the likelihood of a recession by driving up prices, sapping consumer spending, slowing business activity and risking layoffs, they said.
The White House plans to slap a 10% tax on all imported products and place additional duties on items from some of the largest U.S. trading partners, including China and the European Union.
“These policies, if sustained, would likely push the U.S. and global economy into recession this year,” J.P. Morgan said in a note to clients after the tariff announcement.
“Recession risks will likely rise,” Deutsche Bank added.
U.S. stocks plunged on Thursday in the first trading session after Trump unveiled the new tariffs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 1,679 points, or nearly 4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined almost 6%.
The S&P 500 tumbled 4.8%, marking its worst trading day since 2020.
(NEW YORK) — New Mega Millions rules will come into play next month, the company has announced, under which the minimum jackpot value will more than double to $50 million.
The new rules will come into force after the final drawing of the current game on Friday, April 4, the company said in a notice posted to its website. The first drawing under the new rules will be on April 8.
From that draw, jackpots will start at $50 million, rather than the current starting point of $20 million. “Jackpots are expected to grow faster and get to higher dollar amounts more frequently in the new game,” the company said.
Minimum non-jackpot prizes will jump in value from between $2 and $1 million to between $10 and $10 million. Every winning ticket will payout at least double the price, Mega Millions said.
Mega Millions will introduce a new $5 game with a built-in multiplier, with a multiplier value of 2, 3, 4, 5 or 10 randomly assigned at the time of purchase.
Prizes for match 5 — achieved by matching five white balls — will range from $2 million to $10 million with the new multiplier.
Matching the Mega Ball on its own will now payout $10 to $50, depending on the assigned multiplier.
Mega Millions said the new rules improve the odds of players winning the jackpot — from 1 in 302,575,350 to 1 in 290,472,336 — due to the removal of one gold Mega Ball from the game. The new format will have 24 rather than 25 Mega Balls.
Overall odds of winning any prize will improve to 1 in 23 from 1 in 24, the company said.
(NEW YORK) — Consumer prices rose 2.8% in February compared to a year ago, easing slightly over the first full month under President Donald Trump and offering welcome news for markets roiled by a global trade war. Inflation cooled more than economists expected.
Price increases slowed from a 3% inflation rate recorded in January, though inflation remain nearly a percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
Egg prices, a closely watched symbol of price increases, soared 58.8% in February compared to a year ago, accelerating from the previous month. Bird flu has decimated the egg supply, lifting prices higher.
The Justice Department opened an investigation into egg producers to learn if market practices have contributed to the price hikes, a source familiar with the matter told ABC News.
Prices dropped for tomatoes, cereal, cupcakes and cookies over the past year. Some grocery prices increased faster than the pace of overall inflation, however, including beef, biscuits and apples.
A rise in housing costs accounted for nearly half of the price increases last month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said. A decline in the price of airline tickets and gasoline helped offset some of the increased costs, the agency said.
The inflation report arrived hours after the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, prompting near-immediate retaliatory duties from the European Union and marking the latest escalation of trade tensions.
Tariffs are widely expected to raise prices for consumers, since importers typically pass along a share of the added cost to shoppers.
The stock market has plunged since Trump imposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China last week, giving rise to warnings on Wall Street about a potential economic downturn. Within days, Trump delayed some of the tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
The report on Wednesday may soften pressure on the Federal Reserve, which bears responsibility for keeping inflation under control.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week said the administration’s tariff plan would likely raise prices for U.S. shoppers and retailers.
The scale and duration of the tariffs remain unclear, but a portion of the taxes on imports will probably reach consumers, Powell told an economic forum in New York City last week.
“We’re at a stage where we’re still very uncertain about what will be tariffed, for how long, at what level,” Powell said. “But the likelihood is some of that will find its way. It will hit the exporters, the importers, the retailers and to some extent consumers.”
On multiple occasions in recent days, the White House declined to rule out a possible recession, saying the tariffs would require a “period of transition.”
A solid, albeit disappointing jobs report on Friday exacerbated concerns among some observers.
Employers hired 151,000 workers last month, falling short of expectations of 170,000 jobs added. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, which remains a historically low figure.
The Trump administration slapped 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as 10% tariffs on imports from China. The fresh round of duties on Chinese goods doubled an initial set of tariffs placed on China last month.
A day later, Trump issued a one-month delay for tariffs on auto-related goods from Mexico and Canada. The carve-out expanded soon afterward with an additional one-month pause for goods from Mexico and Canada compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, a free trade agreement.
On Tuesday, Trump announced plans to add another 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, bringing the total to 50%. The move came in response to threats made by Ontario to cut off electricity to parts of the U.S., Trump said.
Hours later, Ontario Premier Doug Ford issued a joint statement with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on X announcing the suspension of the 25% surcharge on electricity sent to the U.S.
The tariffs slapped on Canada, Mexico and China are widely expected to increase prices paid by U.S. shoppers, since importers typically pass along a share of the cost of those higher taxes to consumers.
A key gauge of consumer confidence registered its largest monthly drop since August 2021, the nonpartisan Conference Board said in February.
The share of consumers who expect a recession within the next year surged to a nine-month high, the data showed. A growing portion of consumers believe the job market will worsen, the stock market will fall and interest rates will rise, the report added.
ABC News’ Katherine Faulders and Soo Youn contributed to this report.
The owner of Texas Cafe in Rio Grande City, Texas, Becky Garza, speaks with ABC News’ Mireya Villareal in December 2024. (Mireya Villareal)
(RIO GRANDE CITY, TEXAS) — Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, represents 58,000 restaurants that employ 1.5 million Texans. That breaks down to 11% of the state’s workforce that could potentially be impacted by the 25% tariffs on Mexican imports that just went into effect.
All Tuesday morning she was on calls and in meetings, calming fears because people believe Texas will feel the brunt of this first — And, after that, the domino effect will be fast.
“Exhausted and afraid: Those are the words I keep hearing from people,” Williams Knight said. “They’re running out of levers to pull here, and they’re afraid. If this is a sustained tariff policy — what that will mean to their business long term? The unpredictability comes with a tremendous cost.”
One of those concerned businesses is Texas Cafe in Rio Grande City, which has been serving South Texas for more than 85 years and was recently certified as a historical landmark by the State of Texas. People travel from all over the country to try their signature dish, Envueltos: A special chile-con-carne filling rolled up in a tortilla. But don’t call it an enchilada or the owner, Becky Garza, will scold you profusely.
“These are my grandfather’s recipes that he invented back in 1939,” she said. “And when you change something, people notice. Especially Hispanic people.”
Garza is getting ready for Cuaresma, or 40 days of Lent. It is essential that she gets very specific ingredients from Mexico for this time of year or her customers will know something isn’t right. Plain and simple: Her business, livelihood and family legacy depend on imports from Mexico that play an essential role in the food she serves. And now, she said, all of that is going to cost more because of the new tariffs.
“I can buy stuff from Mexico cheap and use it in my home. But I can’t use any of those products from Mexico in my business unless I buy them from a store that follows FDA guidelines. I buy Mexican cokes. I get cinnamon sticks. These are a very high-price now and sometimes hard to find. I get pilonsios. Chile guajillo for menudo. And avocados from Mexico are better — the real avocados from Mexico that you can only find in small stores. But boy, they are expensive, and it’s only going to get worse,” Garza explained, adding: “I will not stop getting these items from Mexico, because I don’t want to change the consistency or the quality.”
Garza has seen prices steadily increasing over the last few years. In 2024, she spent around $1,000 for her specialty Cuaresma items. But in 2025, she spent $1,200 — a 20% increase that may not seem like a lot to big retail chains, but is huge for small business owners like Garza.
Knight wholeheartedly agrees, saying, “In the last four years we’ve seen a 35% increase in the cost of food needed in these restaurants and a 36% increase in labor. That’s not even including the big swipe fees businesses are paying, plus the increases to rent and utilities.”
Over the last 30 days, TRA has worked closely with the National Restaurant Association on a strategy to help mitigate the uncertainty. They’ve suggested restaurants review their menus and supply chain, looking for ways to source things closer to their businesses. They’ve also encouraged businesses to keep pushing the value of their service and products. And, before these tariffs went into effect, they reached out to lawmakers to educate them on the impact and push for exemptions.
“It feels like we are in this very unknown space again,” Williams Knight said.
Small, independent businesses make up 70% of the restaurants in Texas.
So, while both big and small establishments will be impacted, Williams Knight said she worries that this will create a ripple effect that could drive some families to close up shop.
She said that some of their restaurants are already starting to get emails from suppliers about costs going up, and she compared the feeling to a few days after the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown was announced, explaining: “You’re going to see a very large number of closures and then a large number of people unemployed.”
For years, as prices have gone up, Garza has found a way to cut back and save so she doesn’t have to charge customers more. In fact, she’s been working a second, primary job that sustains her own day-to-day needs, opting not to take a real paycheck from Texas Cafe. But she’s retiring in June and having to think about her future. And for the first time since she’s taken over the restaurant, Garza made the tough decision on Tuesday to raise prices.
“I had a meeting with my waitress and we’re going up on the breakfast menu due to the high price of eggs,” Garza explained. “I save money and I am frugal. But right now it’s been getting difficult.”
Not wanting to manifest any other difficulties the restaurant may face in the future, she said that’s all she’s willing to do and talk about for now.
However, there are indicators that the tariff policies that went into effect Tuesday may not affect small businesses as extremely as some are predicting, or their customers, for too long.
President Donald Trump’s administration could announce a pathway for tariff relief on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the North America Free Trade Agreement as soon as Wednesday, according to an interview with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Fox Business on Tuesday.
ABC News’ Zunaira Zaki contributed to this report.
