Economists say Trump tariff threats, DOGE job cuts are ‘chilling’ the economy
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(WASHINGTON) — Economists say the uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and mass layoffs of government workers are starting to have a “chilling” effect on the U.S. economy.
“It’s a very difficult business environment, because they can’t plan for what their cost structure is going to be,” said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. “It’s adding to investment uncertainty, and some people are holding back on investments.”
Trump has so far imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports and says he’ll impose additional 10%, plus 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. Trump also says he will impose “reciprocal tariffs” that match the duties other countries levy on the U.S. That comes on top of tariff plans on cars, semiconductors, steel and aluminum. Even if Trump doesn’t ultimately move forward with all his tariff threats, the mere uncertainty has a chilling effect.
“If one of the inputs of your factory goes up by 25%, you might cut your production and say maybe we’ll have to fire some people,” Ziemba added.
Meanwhile, the Department of Government Efficiency’s slashing of the federal workforce across the country “also impacts consumption, because people are losing their jobs or are afraid of losing their jobs, so that might cause them to save more money,“ Ziemba said.
This week, The Conference Board’s consumer sentiment survey found that it registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021.
“Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a 10-month high,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for global indicators at The Conference Board.
“Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs,” Guichard said.
The Canada and Mexico tariffs would have a sweeping effect, since those are America’s two biggest trading partners. It could raise prices at the grocery store and the gas pump. Ziemba also noted that the cost of cars could increase by several thousand dollars.
“Every time a car part crosses the border, 25% tariffs could be very onerous,” Ziemba said. “We could see the cost of building a house go up quite substantially.”
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(NEW YORK) — Price hikes for gasoline and groceries could reach shoppers within days in the aftermath of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, experts told ABC News.
Some products such as auto fuel and fresh produce will be hit with near-instant price increases, while others like cars, laptops and children’s toys will show hikes in the coming weeks and months, they said.
The Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as 10% tariffs on imports from China. The fresh round of duties on Chinese goods doubled an initial set of tariffs placed on China last month.
Mexico, Canada and China make up the three largest U.S. trading partners, accounting for a vast array of products ranging from everyday essentials to big-ticket purchases.
Tariffs of this magnitude would likely increase prices paid by U.S. shoppers, since importers typically pass along a share of the cost of those higher taxes to consumers, experts said.
“Higher tariffs will translate into higher prices for some products very quickly,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told ABC News. “It will take longer for everything from vehicles to appliances to consumer electronics.”
In a series of social media posts last month, Trump said he would place tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China for hosting the manufacture and transport of illicit drugs that end up in the U.S.
During an address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night, Trump also sharply criticized tariffs imposed on U.S. goods by Canada, Mexico and China.
“President Trump continues to demonstrate his commitment to ensuring U.S. trade policy serves the national interest,” the White House said in a statement on Tuesday.
The U.S. imported $38.5 billion in agricultural goods from Mexico in 2023, making it the top recipient of such products, U.S Department of Agriculture data showed. Those imports include more than $3 billion worth of fresh fruits and vegetables.
Roughly 90% of avocados eaten in the U.S. last year originated in Mexico, USDA data showed. Other products with a high concentration of Mexican imports include tomatoes, cucumbers, bell peppers, jalapeños, limes and mangos.
These products will show price increases within days because fresh produce cannot be held on shelves for an extended period, meaning imports slapped with tariffs will soon reach shoppers, Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told ABC News.
“That’s what you’d expect to be hit the fastest,” Miller said.
A similar dynamic will play out for gasoline prices for some U.S. drivers living in regions that rely on crude oil from Mexico and Canada, said Timothy Fitzgerald, a professor of business economics at the University of Tennessee who studies the petroleum industry.
Mexico and Canada account for 70% of U.S. crude oil imports, which make up a key input for the nation’s gasoline supply, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a government agency.
Those imports come primarily from Canada, which sends crude oil to U.S. refineries built specifically to process the crude and redistribute it as gasoline for cars and trucks. Gasoline that originates as Canadian crude reaches customers in the upper Midwest as well as some along the East and West coasts, Fitzgerald said.
Gas refiners and retailers retain the ability to alter prices multiple times per day, meaning price hikes may have hit some drivers as early as Tuesday, he added.
“Think about a digital board at a gas station – a couple taps to a button and the price goes up,” Fitzgerald said.
A second wave of price increases will hit a wide-ranging set of products over the coming weeks and months, some experts said.
A large share of consumer electronics – such as laptops, video game systems and smartphones – enter the U.S. from China, meaning the new tariffs will filter through into higher prices for those goods, they said.
Price hikes will ultimately hit children’s toys, since many of those products also originate in China, Miller said.
Some U.S. retailers appear to have been stockpiling children’s toys in anticipation of the tariffs, but the stored items will run out soon, he added.
“You probably don’t get much of a reprieve beyond April,” Miller said.
Prices for Mexico-made beer and tequila will also rise over the coming months, as will the cost of Canada-made maple syrup, Miller added.
Canada is the top source of imported U.S. eggs, adding stress to a supply chain already decimated by an avian flu outbreak.
Egg prices skyrocketed 53% over the past year, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed last month.
Since the U.S. relies overwhelmingly on domestic egg production, however, a potential price increase for Canadian eggs is not expected to meaningfully drive up egg prices at U.S. stores, Miller said.
“But it certainly doesn’t make things better,” Miller added.
ABC News’ Jacob Eufemia contributed to this report.
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(WASHINGTON) — U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are now in effect, part of an escalating series of trade maneuvers by President Donald Trump that have unsettled markets.
As of Wednesday, the U.S. is imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports from all trading partners with no exceptions or exemptions, according to an earlier statement by the White House.
Products that are expected to be impacted include canned goods, vehicles and washing machines.
Baseball bats, sewing needles and lamps could also go up in price.
While the tariff is being slapped on imports from all countries, the U.S. imports more steel and aluminum from Canada than any other country.
The 25% tariffs go into effect just a day after Trump threatened to double the tariff specifically on Canada amid an intensifying tit-for-tat between the two countries over Trump’s tariff policies.
Earlier this week, Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity from the province sent to U.S. customers in response to earlier U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods.
That led to a threat from Trump to up the tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50%.
Trump later reversed course after an agreement was reached and Ford pulled back his threat to impose the electricity surcharge.
“After President Trump threatened to use his executive powers to retaliate with a colossal 50 percent tariff against Canada, Ontario Premier Doug Ford spoke with Secretary Lutnick to convey that he is backing down on implementing a 25 percent charge on electricity exports to the United States,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.
Ford will travel to Washington, D.C., for a meeting with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on trade.
ABC News’ Zunaira Zaki contributed to this report.
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(NEW YORK) — With more high-rise buildings than anywhere else in the U.S., New York City has long been a place where millions of people hope to achieve the American dream through careers in the construction industry.
While scores of construction workers are spending hours each day building the city’s newest apartment buildings, office towers and restaurants from the ground up, these properties have also become the locations of the city’s latest fraud scheme, according to some representatives of the construction and insurance industries.
“It isn’t a victimless crime,” Don Orlando of Tradesman Program Managers, which represents property owners and construction contractors, told ABC News. “These are small businesses that are getting victimized.”
Orlando alleges that hundreds of construction site incidents involving reported injuries were actually staged as part of a widespread conspiracy — and he said surveillance cameras are capturing some of these alleged fraudulent falls.
He pointed to a video that he says shows a man who “didn’t fall” and “just sat down” while an ambulance was on its way. The man filed a lawsuit claiming head and limb injuries, according to Orlando.
“That $200 or $300 investment in that camera saved that employer millions of dollars,” Orlando said.
Others said these claims are being blown out of proportion.
“If there was this rampant fraud going on, these cases would be dismissed by a judge or a jury,” New York personal injury attorney Nicholas Warywoda told ABC News. “That’s just not happening.”
‘The cost of doing work skyrockets’
Steve Katz has worked in the construction industry in the New York metropolitan area for more than 50 years, but said the last few years have been unlike anything he has ever experienced.
According to Katz, his concerns over fraud started eight years ago when one of his employees claimed to have fallen from a fire escape. After doctors said the employee was fine and could return to work, the man never came back, according to Katz, adding that his insurance company settled for $3.6 million.
“That’s when I went crazy,” Katz said. “I found out that I wasn’t the only one. My competitors told me they were all getting hit with these fake falls.”
Two years later, Katz said another construction worker sued him, alleging a fall on one of the properties where Katz’s crews were working. However, Katz said the employee’s colleagues told him that the employee told them that he was planning the fall in advance and was willing to teach them how to fake falls as well.
“Since then, I’ve had a total of eight of these phony lawsuits,” Katz said, adding that the extensive costs associated with fraudulent claims are being passed along to customers.
“We just raise our rates. The insurance companies raise their rates, and the cost of doing work skyrockets.”
Orlando explained that fraudulent construction accident cases can have financial implications for insurance customers throughout the U.S., even outside the nation’s largest city.
“If this was true, then why are the insurance companies not showing the proof that it’s actually lawsuits that are raising premiums and insurance costs?” Warywoda, whose firm frequently represents construction workers injured on construction sites in New York, said.
“One could say if the owners of the construction sites would just provide the appropriate safety measures that they’re required to, there wouldn’t be as many lawsuits,” he added.
One address, multiple lawsuits
Allegations of widespread fraud have caused increased scrutiny on lawsuits being filed by people claiming to be construction workers who were hurt on job sites.
In New York City’s outer boroughs, miles from the high-rise towers of Midtown Manhattan, reporting by ABC station WABC-TV found some claims coming from multiple people living at the same address.
One apartment building in the Bronx was home to 30 plaintiffs, while a two-story building nearby was listed as the home of 21 plaintiffs, according to WABC-TV’s report. In Queens, at least half a dozen people living in a six-unit apartment building said in court documents that they were injured on the job at construction sites.
“If you think about it, the law of averages tells you it’s really unlikely that there’s going to be this large number of people living at the same address, who are all in the same business, work for the same employer, have the same injury, have the same medical treatment and are going through the exact same things,” Michelle Rafield, the executive editor for Coalition Against Insurance Fraud, told ABC News.
Orlando’s company, Tradesman, claimed undocumented migrants are being recruited to participate in the scheme.
“They’re told, ‘Listen, we can teach you how to make millions. This is all you have to do. You have to fake a fall on a construction site,'” Katz said.
Katz and Orlando claim that some doctors and lawyers are in on the scheme, and that after the construction accidents are reported, the migrants undergo unnecessary surgeries and then become plaintiffs in slip-and-fall lawsuits
“I would call the plaintiffs in this case victims, because they are the ones being taken advantage of,” Orlando said.
Tradesman has now filed lawsuits of its own, taking over 100 defendants, including law firms and doctors, to federal court on accusations of racketeering.
“It’s morally wrong,” Orlando said. “Take out the fraud element. You’re taking advantage of someone who’s deprived as it is, and America is supposed to be the land of opportunities.”
Attorneys for dozens of the defendants say the allegations have no merit and that they intend to seek dismissals of the claims against them.
“The insurance industry and the industry lobby is very wealthy and very strong. They’re doing everything they can to tarnish and to change the civil justice system, which is only going to make it less safe for construction workers,” Warywoda, who isn’t among those accused in Trademan’s lawsuits, said. “It’s about putting profits over people.”
