Crude oil tankers, bulk carriers and vessels sit anchored around Qaboos Port June 22, 2026, in Muscat, Oman. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for the region’s oil and gas. (Elke Scholiers/Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level since May as negotiations between the United States and Iran ease financial markets.
The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.43%, down from last week’s rate of 6.49%, Freddie Mac data on Thursday showed.
Still, mortgage rates register above their level before the war with Iran. Prior to the Middle East conflict in late February, a 30-year fixed mortgage clocked in at an average just below 6%.
“Rates did drop, which does provide some relief. But they’re still high,” Julia Fonseca, a professor at the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, told ABC News.
A decline in mortgage rates over recent weeks has come in response to a drop in oil prices and Treasury yields, some analysts told ABC News. The shift has partially reversed a trend that took hold after the Iran war broke out.
At that time, mortgage rates surged in response to a jump in U.S. Treasury yields, or the amount paid annually to a holder of government debt. The rise in bond yields is owed to fear of a renewed bout of inflation as oil prices climbed.
Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks higher consumer prices that would eat away at those annual payouts. In turn, bonds often become less attractive in response to economic turmoil. When demand falls, bond yields rise.
High bond yields make borrowing more expensive for average Americans, since 10-year Treasury rates influence the rates offered for a variety of loans, including mortgages.
Bond yields eased in recent weeks as negotiations unfolded between the U.S. and Iran, pushing down oil prices and softening inflation expectations, Ken Johnson, a real estate economist at the University of Mississippi, told ABC News. In turn, Johnson said, mortgage rates have fallen.
“The big driver has been the cooling of tensions in the Gulf,” Johnson told ABC News.
Despite the recent drop, mortgage rates remain higher than their pre-war level. Even more, mortgage rates stand well above their level as recently as 2022, when the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage came in below 5%.
Elevated mortgage rates have contributed to a phenomenon known as the “lock-in” effect.
Mortgage rates remain well above the rates enjoyed by most current homeowners, who may be reluctant to put their homes on the market and risk a much higher rate on their next mortgage.
“Rates are still pretty high relative to what they were a few years ago, but every drop in mortgage rates helps. This is not going to go all the way toward unlocking people. We might see this gradual unlocking as time goes by and as rates tick down,” Fonseca said.
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Monday, April 6, 2026. Signs of last-ditch efforts to secure a truce in the war that has rattled global markets spurred a cautious advance in stocks as oil retreated. (Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
(NEW YORK) — Stocks closed significantly higher on Wednesday, just hours after the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire.
The Dow Jones Industrial average surged 1,325 points, or 2.8%, while the S&P 500 climbed 2.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 2.8%.
As part of the accord, Iran says it will allow tankers passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil and gas, as long as they coordinate with the nation’s military.
Investors appeared optimistic that the agreement would ease one of the worst global oil shortages in decades, though the resumption of tanker traffic in the strait remained uncertain.
U.S. oil prices plummeted nearly 15% on Wednesday, registering at about $96 a barrel. Still, the price of oil remained well above pre-war levels of about $67 a barrel.
President Donald Trump touted the ceasefire in a social media post on Wednesday, saying there would be “no enrichment of Uranium,” despite the Iranians claiming that the U.S. agreed to its plan, which includes numerous concessions.
The president added that “the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear ‘Dust.'”
The Iranian Supreme National Security Council’s statement on Tuesday included “acceptance of enrichment” in its 10-point plan.
Investors will likely pay close attention to a potential uptick in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Following Israeli attacks on Lebanon on Wednesday, oil tankers are suspended from passing through the strait, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported.
Typically, scores of ships carry a fifth of the world’s oil through the strait each day, but Iran effectively closed the passage over the course of the war. That oil shortage sent crude prices soaring, and it threatened far-reaching price increases that some economists feared could tip the U.S. economy into a recession.
ABC News’ David Brennan, Jon Haworth and Nadine El-Bawab contributed to this report.
Kevin Warsh, Chair of the Federal Reserve, on April 21, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)v
(WASHINGTON) — The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest decision on interest rates on Wednesday as the central bank weathers the highest inflation in three years.
The announcement will mark the first possible adjustment of the benchmark interest rate since Trump nominee Kevin Warsh began his four-year term as Fed chair last month.
The policy move is also set to arrive at a moment of flux for the nation’s economy, just days after an agreement between the United States and Iran offered hope for some price relief.
The U.S.-Iran accord, set to be formally signed on Friday, came as gasoline prices fell below $4 a gallon for the first time since March. Still, fuel costs stand well above pre-war levels, and an array of grocery prices remain elevated.
Futures markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady when policymakers meet on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of investor sentiment.
In recent weeks, however, odds have risen for a potential interest rate hike by the end of 2026, the tool showed, granting a roughly four in 10 chance of a quarter-point increase in December.
The shift in expectations came after a stronger-than-expected jobs report earlier this month showed robust hiring in May. In theory, a resilient labor market could afford central bankers leeway to raise interest rates in an effort to dial back inflation, since elevated borrowing costs risk a hiring slowdown.
Inflation jumped for a third consecutive month as the Iran war continued to drive up prices in May, surpassing 4% for the first time in three years
The Middle East conflict prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded, sending gasoline prices surging.
On Monday, President Donald Trump announced a U.S.-Iran deal that included plans to reopen the strait. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the deal had been finalized and said it would be signed in Switzerland on Friday. Oil prices fell to their lowest level since March.
The benchmark rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The rate decision will be the first major policy move overseen by Warsh, who will address reporters during a customary press conference minutes after the central bank issues its announcement.
During his term as a Fed governor in the late 2000s and early 2010s, Warsh gained a reputation as an interest-rate “hawk,” meaning he generally preferred higher interest rates as a means of ensuring low and stable inflation.
Last year, Warsh voiced support for lower interest rates. At his Senate confirmation hearing in April, Warsh emphasized the threat posed by elevated inflation.
“When inflation surges — as it has done in recent years — grievous harm is done to our citizens, especially to the least well-off,” Warsh said.
Bucking typical norms, former Fed Chair Jerome Powell Powell will cast a vote on interest rates as a member of the Fed’s 12-person policymaking board.
Powell said he would stay on at the central bank’s board of governors after his term as chair expired as an investigation into the Fed’s office renovation continues.
The Department of Justice moved to drop a criminal probe into Powell in April, calling on the Fed’s inspector general to carry out the investigation into cost overruns tied to the renovation. Powell will remain on the Fed’s board for an indeterminate length of time, he said last month.
The criminal investigation into Powell focused on alleged false testimony to Congress about an office renovation. Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017, has rebuked the probe as a politically motivated effort to influence interest-rate policy. Trump denied any involvement in the criminal investigation.
A sign displays the prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel fuel at a Chevron gas station in Los Angeles on Monday, May 4, 2026. (Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
(LOS ANGELES) — A Chevron gas station in Los Angeles elicited headlines in recent weeks for charging an eye-popping $8.71 a gallon, becoming an emblem for the spike in fuel costs set off by the Iran war.
Sky-high gas prices nationwide owe primarily to a historic oil shock that followed Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But a lesser-known contributor helps account for just how high prices have gotten, at least at some name-brand stations selling fuel from the likes of Chevron, Shell and ExxonMobil.
Branded stations, which make up almost half of gas stations nationwide, charge about 6 cents more per gallon on average than their unbranded counterparts, according to data from the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), a Dow Jones company, for the week ending on May 2. That price gap marks little change from where it stood before the war, OPIS data showed.
In at least one state, the price disparity runs significantly higher. Gas at a Chevron station in California costs an average of 48 cents more per gallon than the price at an unbranded station, the California Energy Commission (CEC) found in 2024. After Chevron, the most expensive average gas prices in California were found at Shell, 76 and Arco-branded stations, the CEC said.
Some analysts said the higher price of branded gas is due to additional costs, such as proprietary additives in the fuel, as well as a producer’s marketing budget and the payment forked over by stations for guaranteed access to its gas – costs that are passed on to consumers.
Other analysts and a California state watchdog, however, have said that the price disparity may stem from the market dominance of a handful of companies, allowing them to drive up the retail price.
The scrutiny comes as some large oil companies like British Petroleum, Valero and Marathon Petroleum report soaring profits amid the Iran war, though Chevron and Exxon saw profits decline due in part to one-time paper losses stemming from financial hedges meant to protect them against a possible price drop.
The price of an average gallon of gas currently stands at $4.52, an increase of $1.54 per gallon since the war began on Feb. 28, AAA data showed. That amounts to a nearly 52% jump in about two-and-a-half months.
Patrick Penfield, a professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University, said the recent surge in prices could prompt a reexamination of the costs baked into the price at the pump, including the added charge for branded gas.
“When you see such big price increases for gasoline, everything should be looked at,” Penfield said.
Chevron did not directly respond to an ABC News request for comment. However, Jim Stanley, director of media relations at the Western States Petroleum Association, a industry trade group, contacted ABC News at Chevron’s request.
Drivers choose branded gas stations as a matter of customer preference centered on issues like lighting, bathroom cleanliness or location, Stanley said.
“Any branded product – whether it’s medication or groceries or clothing – is going to generally cost more than a generic alternative,” he added.
Stanley further said roughly 95% of branded gas stations operate as franchises, meaning they enter into agreements with big-name companies but retain self-ownership.
“Branded gas stations can have these brand standards that they hold their franchisees to: a higher standard than an independently owned store,” Stanley added.
Kelly Davila, a spokesperson for Exxon, said the company doesn’t “own or operate our retail stations.”
Shell declined to respond to ABC News’ request for comment.
Phillips 66, the parent company of 76, did not respond to ABC News’ request for comment. Neither did Marathon Petroleum, the parent company of Arco.
Branded gas stations account for about 45% of stations nationwide, selling gas under the name of a major fuel company, OPIS data shows. Each of the brands touts a unique blend of additives that it says improves the gasoline and eases its effect on car engines. The extra ingredients go beyond the minimum standards mandated by federal and some state regulators, Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy, told ABC News.
“At the end of the day, all gasoline has to meet a federal standard,” Cinquegrana said. “The branded gasoline goes above and beyond that minimum requirement.”
Higher prices charged by name-brand stations – a dynamic that stretches back decades – can be traced in part to spending on the development and production of the additives, Cinquegrana added: “They’re trying to recoup some of that investment.”
Some analysts, however, said it remains unclear whether the added ingredients deliver a meaningfully improved product.
“Regardless of each company’s claim, there is not sound evidence supporting the fact that additives do indeed improve the quality of gasoline, at least to the extent that the consumers perceive it to,” a study issued by the non-profit RAND corporation found in 2010.
The California Division of Petroleum Market Oversight (DPMO), a state watchdog agency, last year said it was “unable to independently verify claims that branded gasoline is superior to unbranded gasoline.”
When asked about studies disputing the value of additives, Stanley, of the Western States Petroleum Association, declined to comment.
The higher price of branded gas also owes to marketing budgets borne by the big-name companies as well as elevated costs paid by retailers as part of agreements with the brands that guarantee them priority access in the event of a supply shortage, the U.S. Government Accountability Office said in a study of the issue published in 2005.
“Gas stations pay more for a contract for branded gasoline because they have a guarantee of supply. And they have a major global brand backing them up,” Cinquegrana said.
Some analysts and a California watchdog disputed those explanations. Rather, they said, the higher prices may reflect market power enjoyed by the large firms, giving them leeway to raise prices without fear of competition.
“My own reading of the data is that the branded companies are able to take advantage of a lack of a competitive market and are acting almost like an oligopoly,” Paasha Mahdavi, a professor of energy governance and political economy at the University of California, Santa Barbara, told ABC News, using a term that describes an industry dominated by a small number of companies.
Mahdavi focused on the relatively large price gap in California between branded and unbranded gas, which has widened in recent years.
In 2019, branded gas from companies like ExxonMobil, Arco, Valero and Chevron cost an average of 20 cents more per gallon in California; within five years, that price disparity had climbed to 31 cents, according to a DPMO study issued last year. Over that same period, the profitability of oil refiners in California has increased, DPMO said.
The rise in refinery profitability may be traced to the “exercise of market power by gasoline suppliers,” DPMO added, saying 90% of in-state refining capacity is controlled by four companies. As a result, elevated wholesale prices could be passed along the supply chain, DPMO said.
The largest companies appear to have “pretty strong control of not only upstream assets like oil and gas, but also control of the gas stations that are preferred by consumers based on location,” Mahdavi said. “They’re able to charge a higher premium.”
Valero did not respond to ABC News’ request for comment.
Stanley, of the Western States Petroleum Association, said he is unsure why California features a larger gap in price between branded and unbranded gas than other states. One contributor, he said, could be the relatively low density of gas stations in the state.
“Competition brings down costs. When a retailer doesn’t see that same level of competition, you can see that reflected in higher prices.”
Stanley faulted environmental regulations in California for high overall gas prices.
“Branded or unbranded, gas in California is the most expensive in the country. That’s because of supply constraints that have been created by state policies.”
Mahdavi further said that the locations of branded gas stations may carry additional costs due to higher rents, accounting for some of the price gap.
The rise in prices during the Iran war offers an opportunity to revisit the factors that contribute to the price at the pump, according to Mahdavi.
“We can shine more light on what is driving these higher prices,” he said.
