Exit polls 2024: How the gender gap is playing out in key swing states
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(WASHINGTON) — The gender gap is considered a crucial factor in the presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Both candidates tried to turn the gap to their advantage, with Harris making reproductive freedom a centerpiece of her campaign while Trump focused heavily on motivating men to turn out to the polls.
Men and women have long voted differently in presidential races, with the gender gap averaging 19 points in exit polls since 1996. But several pollsters told ABC News they were bracing for a “gender chasm” this year given the contrast of a man and a woman at the top of the ticket as well as the prominence of abortion rights as an issue after the fall of Roe v. Wade.
Preliminary results from exit poll data, which may change as polls are updated throughout election night, provide some insight on vote preferences among men and women.
Nationally, Harris has a 10-point advantage with women — 54% to Trump’s 44% — but her support is off a slim 3 points from President Joe Biden’s support with the group in 2020.
Trump, meanwhile, is leading by an identical 10-point margin among men.
There is also a huge gender gap between young men (who are roughly split between Harris and Trump 49%-47%) and young women who back Harris by 26 points.
ABC News has not projected a winner in these races.
Georgia
In Georgia, preliminary results show Harris with a 7-point advantage with women over Trump: 53% support to Trump’s 46%.
Compared to 2020 exit polls, Harris is running slightly behind Biden with women. Women went for Biden by 9 percentage points. Biden ultimately flipped the state blue for the first time in decades, eking out a narrow victory over Trump there by less than 12,000 votes.
Trump has a 12-point advantage with men in Georgia, preliminary results show: 55% to Harris’ 43%. That is the same gap he had there in the 2020 election against Biden.
Among younger voters, those ages 18 to 29, women are swinging for Harris by 29 points. Trump, meanwhile, only has a 2-point advantage among men in the same age group.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, preliminary results show women going for Harris by 13 points while men go for Trump by 15 points.
That is a much wider gender gap than the state saw in 2020, according to exit polls. Biden won women by 7 points there while Trump won men by 9 points.
Among younger voters, Harris has a 33-point lead with women while Trump has a 23-point lead with men.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania — a battleground that is considered to be a possible tipping point state — Harris has a 12-point lead among women: 55% compared to Trump’s 43%.
Trump’s lead with men is slightly higher: he has a 14-point among men: 56% compared to Harris’ 42%.
Again, preliminary exit poll results show a wider gender gap between Harris and Trump than between Biden and Trump. In 2020, women went for Biden by 11 points and men for Trump by 11 points.
Women ages 18 to 29 are swinging for Harris by a 40-point margin, while Trump is leading with men in that age range by 24 points.
Arizona
In Arizona, women are going for Harris by 3 points: 51% to Trump’s 48%.
Trump, meanwhile, boasts a bigger lead among men: 52% support from the group compared to Harris’ 45%.
That’s also a wider gender gap than in 2020, when Biden won women by 3 points and Trump men by 2 points.
Michigan
Harris boasts a 8-point advantage with women in the battleground state, according to preliminary results: 53% compared to Trump’s 45%.
Trump has a 11-point lead among men: 54% compared to Harris’ 43%.
Among younger voters ages 18 to 29, Harris has a 16-point lead with women while Trump has a 20-point lead with men, according to preliminary results.
Wisconsin
Harris is winning with women in Wisconsin by 11 points: 55% compared to Trump’s 44%. She is running slightly behind Biden’s 13-point advantage with women in 2020.
Trump has a 9-point lead with men: 54% compared to Harris’ 45%. Trump in 2020 won men by 10 points in the state.
Among younger voters ages 18 to 29, Harris has a 18-point lead with women while Trump has a 5-point lead with men, according to preliminary results.
Nevada
In Nevada, Harris is winning women 53% to Trump’s 43% — a 10-point gap.
Trump is winning men by a slightly larger margin, according to preliminary results: 55% to 41%.
Photo Credit: Prince Williams/WireImage/James Devaney/GC Images
(WASHINGTON) — The race for the White House remained essentially a dead heat on Friday — with 11 days to go until Election Day.
Kamala Harris was headed to Texas to highlight abortion access and Donald Trump was set to appear on Joe Rogan’s highly-popular podcast.
McConnell, Johnson rebuke Harris for calling Trump ‘fascist’
In a rare joint statement, House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell strongly condemned Harris calling Trump a “fascist” and comparing him to Adolf Hitler.
The two Republican leaders say Harris’ remarks have “only fanned the flames beneath a boiling cauldron of political animus. Her most recent and most reckless invocations of the darkest evil of the 20th century seem to dare it to boil over. The Vice President’s words more closely resemble those of President Trump’s second would-be assassin than her own earlier appeal to civility.”
McConnell and Johnson say they have been briefed on the “ongoing and persistent threats to former President Donald Trump.”
Harris quickly seized on John Kelly’s comments to The New York Times this week that he believed Trump fit the description of a fascist. Kelly served as Trump’s chief of staff and is a retired general.
Trump has claimed for months that Harris is a “fascist” or “communist” or “Marxist.”
-ABC News’ Lauren Peller
Virginia judge strikes down voter purge that impacted 1,600 people
A federal judge issued a partial ruling finding that Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s executive order to conduct a daily voter purge process violated the National Voting Rights Act of 1993.
A total of 1,600 voters removed from the rolls since August must be added back within the next five days.
The judge said the process left no room for individualized inquiry, which violated the act’s requirement that “when in the 90-day provisional, it must be done on an individualized basis.”
-ABC News’ Beatrice Peterson
Trump zeroes in on ‘blue wall’ states
Trump will embark on a rigorous schedule making his final pitch to voters. The former president is focusing on the “blue wall” states this weekend and early next week, specifically targeting Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
After stops in Michigan and Pennsylvania on Saturday, Trump will culminate his weekend campaigning with a rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, in which the former president has coined as a “celebration of the whole thing” with his nine years of campaigning coming to close.
-ABC News’ Kelsey Walsh, Lalee Ibssa and Soorin Kim
Americans accused of noncitizen voter fraud face doxxing
Eliud Bonilla, a Brooklyn-born NASA engineer born to Puerto Rican parents, was abruptly purged from the voter rolls as a “noncitizen.”
Bonilla later voted without issue, but the nuisance soon became a nightmare after a conservative watchdog group published his personal information online after obtaining a list of the state’s suspected noncitizen voters.
“I became worried because of safety,” he told ABC News, “because, unfortunately, we’ve seen too many examples in this country when one person wants to right a perceived wrong and goes through with an act of violence.”
Bonilla’s story highlights a real-world impact of aggressive efforts to purge state voter rolls of thousands of potential noncitizens who have illegally registered. Many of the names end up being newly naturalized citizens, victims of an inadvertent paperwork mistake or the result of a clerical error, experts say. Federal law prohibits noncitizens from voting in federal elections.
Read more about Bonilla’s story and a fact check of noncitizen voting claims here.
Half of Americans see Trump as fascist, Harris viewed as pandering: POLL
A new poll from ABC News and Ipsos found half of Americans (49%) see Trump as a fascist, or “a political extremist who seeks to act as a dictator, disregards individual rights and threatens or uses force against their opponents.”
A majority of voters (65%) also said Trump often says things that are not true.
But Harris also faces perception headwinds, though far fewer Americans (22%) said they viewed her as a fascist.
Fifty-seven percent of registered voters said Harris is making proposals “that just are intended to get people to vote for her,” not that she intends to carry out. Just more than half (52%) said the same about Trump.
Trump to appear on Joe Rogan podcast in play for young male voters
Former President Donald Trump sits down with podcast host Joe Rogan for the first time Friday, appearing on the highly popular “The Joe Rogan Experience,” as he reaches out to an audience of mostly young males as potential voters.
The podcast, which boasts approximately 15.7 million followers, a Spotify representative confirmed to ABC News, is greater than the population of any of the seven election battleground states.
Michael Blackshire / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
(WASHINGTON) — Vice presidential nominees Sen. JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz will campaign in Arizona on Wednesday as early voting begins in a state that could decide the presidential race and control of the Senate.
Both Vance and Walz will hold rallies in Tucson on Wednesday. Vance will also participate in a town hall later in the day in Mesa hosted by the Conservative Political Action Conference, while Walz will hold an event in Chandler with Senate candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego and Jim McCain, son of former Republican Sen. John McCain.
With less than a month until Election Day, the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris to win the battleground state remains tight. According to FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast, Trump leads Harris by just over 1 percentage point in the state.
The Trump campaign said Vance will encourage Arizonians to vote early in this year’s election, a sharp departure from the rhetoric Trump used in 2020 when he questioned mail-in ballots and voting early.
Wednesday’s swing for Vance is his third visit to the state since becoming Trump’s running mate in July and Walz’s trip is his second since he was picked by Harris to be her running mate in August.
Harris and Trump will also visit Arizona later this week — Harris will campaign there on Thursday and Trump on Sunday.
In 2020, Trump narrowly lost the state to President Joe Biden by just over 10,000 votes. As ABC News has previously reported Trump attempted to pressure then-Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey to overturn the results of the presidential race.
Trump dispatched former Vice President Mike Pence to pressure Ducey to find fraudulent votes in the state, and while Pence did call Ducey multiple times in the aftermath of the election, he did not follow those orders.
Speaking on the “Ruthless” podcast last Thursday, Vance shared that he feels good about the campaign’s chances in Sunbelt states such as Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, but that more work needs to be done in the Rust Belt states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Arizona’s first day of early voting also coincides with the Senate debate between Gallego and Republican Kari Lake in a race that will help decide which party controls the Senate in 2025.
Currently, Gallego leads Lake by just under 8 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Lake, who lost the Arizona gubernatorial race in 2022, alienated many moderate Republicans by feuding with Ducey and upsetting supporters of the late Sen. McCain. Lake has also continued to deny the validity of the 2020 and 2022 elections but has changed how she approaches her campaign, trying to court those moderate Republicans she lost in 2022.
Ducey endorsed Lake in August, saying that too much is at stake in this election cycle.
“I will be voting for Republicans up & down the ballot in November — and both Donald Trump and Kari Lake have my endorsement,” Ducey posted on X. “Differences aside, there is too much on the line and only a Republican in the White House and a majority in the House and US Senate can ensure it.”
A spokesperson for Gov. Tim Walz did not respond to ABC News’ request for comment on this story.
(WASHINGTON) — House Speaker Mike Johnson on Wednesday announced he’s pulling a planned vote for the afternoon on a short-term government funding bill.
The measure includes the SAVE Act, which would require individuals to provide proof of U.S. citizenship to vote. Johnson said he will continue to rally support for the act to be included in the spending bill.
“The American people demand and deserve that we do everything possible to secure the elections. That’s what we’ve been saying consistently. That’s what I have heard from the people across the country in 198 cities across 39 states. It’s consistent from coast to coast, north to south,” Johnson said, maintaining his support for the bill. A number of Republican lawmakers have said they oppose the measure, including Reps. Cory Mills, Tim Burchett, Thomas Massie, Jim Banks and Matt Rosendale, among others.
Johnson said he tasked Majority Whip Tom Emmer “to do the hard work and build consensus” on the plan.
“We’re going to work through the weekend on that. And I want any member of Congress in either party to explain to the American people why we should not ensure that only U.S. citizens are voting in U.S. elections,” Johnson, R-La., said. “We’re going to work on that issue around the clock because we have an obligation to the people to do it. And that’s what the fight is. That’s what’s important.”
“It’s the most pressing issue right now and we’re going to get this job done,” he added. “No vote today because we’re in the consensus-building business here in Congress. With small majorities, that’s what you do. That’s what I’ve been doing since I became Speaker.”
Johnson can only afford to lose the support of four Republicans on a party-line vote if there are no absences. House Democrats are expected to remain unified against it for the most part. However, moderate Maine Democratic Rep. Jared Golden said he would vote in favor of the bill.
Former President Donald Trump posted Tuesday on his social media platform that if congressional Republicans “don’t get absolute assurances on Election Security,” they should vote against a continuing resolution to fund the government.
The White House, Senate Democrats and House Democrats have all slammed Johnson’s plan to tie the voter eligibility legislation to government funding.
House leaders regularly attach priority items to must-pass stopgap funding bills as a means of pushing through measures their members demand.
Johnson’s opening salvo to address the looming funding deadline likely won’t be a winning solution. But with a narrow majority and conservatives clamoring for the SAVE Act, he will attempt to lay down a legislative marker in the House — and give GOP members legislation to point to on the campaign trail.
Sources said Johnson previously told members that he wanted to hold a vote on his short-term funding plan early this week. It was on the
Pressed if he’d accept a short-term funding bill without any policy riders like the SAVE Act, Johnson has said, “Let’s see if they [White House and Senate] have the guts to tell the American people they want illegals to vote in these elections.”
Senate Democrats have already said the SAVE Act is a non-starter for them, noting that it’s already illegal for noncitizens to vote, but Johnson’s move sets up a showdown between the chambers with just months remaining until Election Day.
What is the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act?
The SAVE Act, which has the backing of former President Donald Trump and the far-right House Freedom Caucus, is a bill that seeks to expand proof of citizenship requirements to vote in federal elections. It bans states from accepting and processing an application to register to vote in a federal election unless the applicant presents documentary proof of U.S. citizenship.
The House passed the SAVE Act on July 10 by a bipartisan vote of 221-198, with five election-year vulnerable Democrats crossing the aisle to vote with all Republicans. It’s unclear whether that same support would carry over into Johnson’s planed showdown vote over funding the government.
The Congressional Hispanic Caucus calls the bill “extreme and dangerous” and warns it would purge millions of legal voters from state rolls and make it much more difficult for Americans to reregister to vote.
“Let’s call it what it is — this is a direct attack on hard-working families, including Latino communities,” the Congressional Hispanic Caucus said in a statement following House passage of the bill.
During a press briefing last Tuesday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre called on Republicans to drop the SAVE Act from their funding bill and to instead advance a clean short-term version, called a continuing resolution, or CR.
“We want to see a clean CR,” Jean-Pierre told ABC’s Karen Travers. “That’s what we want to see.”
The administration “strongly opposes” the SAVE Act, Jean-Pierre said. “It is already illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections. It’s already illegal.”
Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Shalanda Young said that “Congressional Republicans are wasting time” when there is a bipartisan path for funding.
“Their 6-month CR approach ignores pressing needs that have real consequences for our defense, our veterans, and our communities,” Young said in a statement last week. “We urge Congress to quickly pass a bill to keep the government open and provide emergency funding for disaster needs across the country, as they have done on a bipartisan basis many times in the past.”
Senate Democrats almost sure to oppose
Johnson’s proposal will set off a fierce fight between the House and the Senate, as Senate Democrats will almost certainly reject the stopgap bill because of the inclusion of the SAVE Act.
Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Patty Murray had called it a “poison pill” and a “nonstarter.”
“We’ve seen this movie before, and we know how it ends. Senate Democrats will continue to work in a bipartisan way to ensure we can keep the government funded and deliver responsible, bipartisan spending bills that can actually be signed into law before the end of the year,” Murray said.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has not yet outlined a plan for dealing with government funding, but he warned House colleagues against the inclusion of any partisan matters in a must-pass funding bill.
“As we have said each time we’ve had CR, the only way to get things done is in a bipartisan way and that is what has happened every time,” Schumer said in a statement to ABC News.
In floor remarks today welcoming the Senate back from a six-week recess, Schumer on Monday called Johnson’s opening proposal “transparently unserious and seemingly designed for scoring political points instead of avoiding a shutdown.”
The March 2025 extension date proposed by Johnson also is not likely to sit well with Democrats, who may seek a much shorter stopgap that allows them to continue to debate and potentially lock in annual appropriations during the lame-duck session at the end of this year.
Schumer on Monday flatly rejected Johnson’s timeline and called for a bipartisan path forward, suggesting Democrats will hold out for a clean, shorter extension.
Another funding fight
If it feels to you like we just did this, you’re not wrong.
Government funding expires annually at the end of the federal government’s fiscal year on Sept. 30.
Passing annual appropriations for 2024 was especially calamitous. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy lost his job over it. Johnson was installed because of it, but not without also facing threats to his position. Johnson ultimately implemented a never-before-seen two deadline system to help push the ball over the line.
Congress did not complete its work codifying current spending levels until mid-March, blowing months past the annual deadline. By the time all the bills were passed, they only funded the government for about six months.
Once again, the deadline is fast-approaching at the end of the month.
As of Monday, the House had passed five of the 12 individual government funding bills, including for Defense, Homeland Security, Interior-Environment, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs and State-Foreign Operations.
House GOP leaders hoped they would be able to clear all 12 bills, but the reality is that there is not enough time to do so.
Right after taking the gavel in October 2023, Johnson said in a letter obtained by ABC News to colleagues that he would not break for August recess until all 12 appropriations bills had passed the House.
“DO NOT break for district work period unless all 12 appropriations bills have passed the House,” Johnson wrote in his first letter as speaker.
That promise was not kept.
Meanwhile, to date, the Senate has not passed a single appropriations bill.
