President Biden to address nation from White House on Thursday

(WASHINGTON) — President Joe Biden makes a farewell speech to world leaders at the United National General Assembly on Tuesday as he seeks to burnish his foreign policy legacy.

But even though he came into office with decades of foreign policy experience, he leaves behind a mixed record.

Biden will tout his administration’s rebuilding of alliances, but the two wars that started under his administration have no clear end in sight.

His presidency is winding down as the conflict in Ukraine continues to rage and the risk of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon increases.

The president has said a top priority before the end of his administration is to end Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, but negotiations to achieve a cease-fire have stalled.

It’s one of his last high-profile chances to rally world leaders.

“The fact that we do have Gaza, the fact that we do have Ukraine and Sudan, still serious issues in our world, just underscores the need for that kind of cooperation, and I think you’ll hear that in his speech,” a senior administration official said previewing Biden’s day at the U.N.

“Yes, he’ll talk about the significant accomplishments, achievements, of his approach, but also talk about how we need to — we need to continue working together to solve these big challenges,” the official told reporters.

With nearly 500 people killed in Lebanon on Monday alone from Israeli strikes, the escalating tensions in the Middle East and the threat of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, will surely overshadow other topics at the U.N.

The senior administration said this meeting will allow for a range of officials to be in the same room to talk about the situation.

“This is one of the advantages of U.N. General Assembly. You literally have the whole world here. So, when you do have crises of the day, they’ll be addressed. And I have no doubt that the situation in the Middle East will be an important theme in a lot of a lot of the meetings, not just that the president has, but other senior U.S. officials who will be convening to talk about — about various aspects of the crisis and what we can do to stabilize the situation,” the official said.

“I think it’s an opportunity to talk about what we have achieved and what we what we still need to do, given a situation that is just heartbreaking where hostages have not been returned, the humanitarian situation in Gaza, and as you know, just such a sensitive issue, and such a delicate and dangerous situation between Israel and Lebanon right now,” the official said.

The president “should’ve been more outspoken from the beginning about what Israel is doing,” said Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, adding that “Netanyahu constantly bites the hand that feeds him.”

Notably, even though Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be at UNGA, there are currently no plans for Biden and Netanyahu to meet on the sidelines.

Both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will meet separately with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House later this week.

“On Russia-Ukraine, Biden has not moved quickly enough to figure out what eventual negotiations will look like, and he’s waited until Ukrainians are in a weaker position,” Bremmer said.

Harris will not be at UNGA, which Bremmer said creates some distance between Biden’s foreign policy and her own.

Where Biden has made strides is in stabilizing relations with China and strengthening alliances in the Indo-Pacific region: Biden launched a new security partnership with Australia, the U.K. and U.S. (AUKUS); he brought together Japan and South Korea — two countries with a rocky history — to work with the U.S. on defense and economic cooperation; and Vietnam upgraded the U.S. to its highest level of diplomatic relations. (Biden is meeting with Vietnam’s general secretary this week.)

All of those relationships are part of Biden’s strategy to counter China’s influence in the region.

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(WASHINGTON) — On the presidential debate stage, Donald Trump was given an opportunity to acknowledge he lost the 2020 election. He did not take it.

ABC News moderator David Muir read aloud recent quotes from the former president in which he appeared to admit being defeated by President Joe Biden, including last week when he said he “lost by a whisker.”

“I said that?” Trump responded. He went on to say that such remarks were sarcastic and that he did not, in fact, accept his loss.

Trump’s false claims and grievances about the 2020 race have long been a central theme of his third campaign for the White House. But recently, his rhetoric’s escalated to threats to prosecute election workers and attempts to sow doubt on the 2024 outcome before a single vote has been cast.

In a social media post over the weekend, Trump pledged to jail election workers, donors, lawyers and others “involved in unscrupulous behavior” related to voting in the 2024 election if he wins. They’d be prosecuted, he said, under his scrutiny and “at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.”

Election officials and law experts condemned the statement as irresponsible and damaging at a time when public servants charged with overseeing elections face increased threats and harassment.

“The remarks are despicable and dangerous,” Richard Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, told ABC News.

“The continued claims of cheating are unsupported by any reliable evidence — but they will cause millions of people to continue to believe the false claims that U.S. elections are rigged,” Hasen said. “After Jan. 6, 2021, a responsible person would be more circumspect with rhetoric about elections and cheating. Donald Trump is doubling down.”

Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, a Democrat whose state was an epicenter of false claims of fraud in 2020, similarly worried about the impact of Trump’s statements.

“It makes me concerned that this will set other people off. I think the one thing that we’ve seen before is that words have consequences and meaning,” Fontes told ABC News. “And while we are concerned, we are also prepared. Elections officials across the country have been working with local, state and federal law enforcement agencies to monitor and track threats, to make sure we’re keeping our voters safe and make sure we’re keeping our elections officials safe.”

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat who experienced protests at her home after Trump’s 2020 loss, said her duty is to “rise above the noise and continue to ensure our elections are fair, secure, accessible, and that the results are accurate.”

The Pennsylvania Department of State, noting it conducts two audits after every election, told ABC News it was “confident in the integrity of county officials and election administrators across the Commonwealth, despite irresponsible statements that are not based in fact or supported by evidence.”

Several secretaries of state, including Benson and Fontes, were on Capitol Hill on Wednesday to testify on their 2024 election preparations.

Asked for comment on the concern from officials, Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, “President Trump believes anyone who breaks the law should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law, including criminals who engage in election fraud. Without free and fair elections, you can’t have a country. Ask Venezuela.”

Trump’s allegations of fraud in the 2020 election were debunked by his own administration officials. Dozens of legal challenges brought by his campaign or his allies in battleground states failed in the courts.

But the impact of the efforts to overturn results were tangible on election officials and poll workers.

Lawrence Norden, vice president of elections and government at the Brennan Center for Justice, earlier this year reported a survey of local election officials across the U.S. found 38% reported experiencing threats, harassment or abuse. Fifty-four percent said they were concerned about the safety of their colleagues. In some cases, Norden said, offices reported installing bullet proof glass or provided extra security training to staff. Some have left their positions altogether.

Norden said it was “very frustrating” to see Trump’s comments after the steps taken by election workers to bring down the temperature these past four years, including efforts to combat misinformation and to improve transparency.

“Any political leader, and certainly somebody running for president of the United States, implying that election officials could be prosecuted is potentially doing two things,” he said. “It’s not going to change the behavior of any election worker or election official, but it’s potentially encouraging further threats or violence, and it is laying the groundwork to potentially undermine or question election results that you don’t like later on.”

In addition to his threat to prosecute election workers, Trump has repeatedly accused Democrats of staging a “coup” in nominating Vice President Kamala Harris after Biden dropped out of the race. He’s sent mixed messaging on voting methods, at times encouraging his supporters to vote in any way possible and at other times baselessly claiming mail-in ballots are ripe for abuse, despite using a mail ballot in Florida’s 2020 primary. He’s said a focus of his campaign is to make sure Democrats don’t “cheat.”

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When asked during the CNN debate in June if he would commit to accepting the November outcome, he only said: “If it’s a fair and legal and good election, absolutely.”

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(WASHINGTON) — As Election Day nears, tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots throughout the country.

Whether through mail-in ballots or early in-person polling stations, more than 68 million Americans, roughly 43% of the 2020 turnout, had voted against standing in line on Election Day as of Friday afternoon, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

Academic experts, reporters and pundits have been going through basic and limited data gleaned from the early voting numbers, trying to get clues about next week’s outcome.

That picture, however, is not exactly black and white, according to Charles Stewart, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s election data science lab.

“It’s like talking about the weather,” he said. “The candidates, the press, etcetera — really are trying to draw conclusions just on the face value of the data, but there really isn’t a lot there to say who is winning.”

That said, Stewart said the early voting data does provide some insights when it comes to this year’s voting patterns and overall turnout — indicators that could help explain how the election turns out.

A flip in the ways people early vote

Voting trends have shown that more people have been choosing to cast their ballots before Election Day, and this has increased in numbers over the last 30 years, but 2020 turned out to be a major outlier, according to Stewart.

In the last presidential election, 69% of the 158 million total votes were cast before Election Day either through the mail, which included mail ballots dropped off in person, or at early voting poll sites, according to data from MIT.

Some 43% of the 2020 early votes came from mail ballots, according to the data.

Stewart said the COVID-19 pandemic forced many voters, who were already heavily engaged and wanted to be safe, to opt into using mail ballots or smaller voting lines if available.

“There was a speculation of what would happen with the shift once the pandemic was over,” he said.

However, in this year’s early voting there’s been a drop in voters choosing mail-in voting, Stewart said.

“The main trend I’m seeing is that the interest of voting by mail has shifted to voting in-person,” Stewart said.

He noted that shift is apparent in Georgia, which has seen record early voting numbers, with over 3.8 million ballots cast as of Friday. Roughly 92% of those were cast at in-person polling places and the rest via mail, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.

Stewart said some states, including swing states Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, only offer early voting through in-person absentee options. Under this option, a voter must request an absentee ballot, fill it out, and then deposit it in either a ballot box or at a designated location, and they are counted as a mail ballot voter.

Some voters may not have the time or energy to go through those extra steps to cast their ballots early, and are likely going to vote in-person Stewart said.

“If you have to vote early in person you have to figure out where that precinct is but you have to find out which is closer to your house or errands. With voting by mail, you have to take the effort to apply, to fill it out and return it and hope that the mail is delivered on time,” he said. “With Election Day voting you likely have a polling site that is much closer to you.”

Early-voting method preference hasn’t the only thing that’s seen a flip, according to Stewart.

Partisan numbers do not give any indication of outcome

Stewart said historical trends show that the majority of early voters made their decisions a long time ago and are likely politically active.

This year’s data shows that to be the case, he said, bit noted a major change in partisan turnout in several battleground states, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

Registered Republicans have seen a higher early voting turnout in battlegrounds Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina in this election compared to 2024 as of Friday, according to the data.

Typically, Democrats have had an advantage in early voting. However, Trump has pushed his supporters to cast their vote earlier and that appears to have an impact, Stewart said.

While Republican officials have been touting these higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart warned there is more nuance to the data.

He noted it shows, so far, that a large number of the registered Republicans who cast their votes eary came from people who voted on Election Day in 2020 and were not new voters.

Stewart said this would mean there would be fewer Republican voters casting their ballots on Election Day and thus their votes may not be reported until much later on election night or even for days afterward.

In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic tallies rise throughout the election night and into the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.

That mirage and “blue wave” could be muted this time around, Stewart said.

“Whatever the blue shift is, there will probably be less of a steep slope to it,” he said.

What do gender, race say about the early vote

Democrats have been touting the gender gap as a factor in their favor in the early voting numbers, as over 54% of women have cast their vote as of Friday, according to the University of Florida data.

Stewart said that assumption is not noteworthy.

Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, going as far back as 1980, according to the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Stewart said this is also true of early voters.

“It’s not always obvious to the public that there’s always been a gender gap,” he said.In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic tallies rise throughout the election night and into the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.

That mirage and “blue wave” could be muted this time around, Stewart said.

“Whatever the blue shift is, there will probably be less of a steep slope to it,” he said.

What do gender, race say about the early vote

Democrats have been touting the gender gap as a factor in their favor in the early voting numbers, as over 54% of women have cast their vote as of Friday, according to the University of Florida data.

Stewart said that assumption is not noteworthy.

Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, going as far back as 1980, according to the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Stewart said this is also true of early voters.

“It’s not always obvious to the public that there’s always been a gender gap,” he said.

When it comes to race, white voters are more likely to cast their votes by mail than Black voters, according to the MIT data.

Stewart said this stems from traditions going back to the civil rights movement.

“African Americans fought and sometimes died for being able to march into the voting booth. That’s been instilled in the community,” he said.

This practice is one factor in large numbers of Black voters heading to in-person early voting poll sites in states such as Georgia and South Carolina, where that option is available.

Churches, civil rights groups and other organizations with ties to the Black community have been pushing voters to head to the early voting polls, using campaigns such as “souls to the polls” so that they can avoid any complications on Election Day.

Groups in Georgia in particular have stressed voting early to circumvent some of the restrictive voting laws that have been put in place since the 2020 election.

As of Friday evening, more than 1 million Black voters have cast their ballots, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.

“The mobilization efforts have clearly proven effective,” Stewart said.

Signs point to high turnout

Stewart said the one definite conclusion that can be drawn from the early voting data is that this year’s overall turnout will be “on par” with 2020’s, which was the highest voter turnout by percentage in over 100 years.

“It could be the high 160 (million),” he estimated.

Stewart said that the early-voting trends have shown that voters under 25 have not yet voted and they will typically line up on Election Day.

“Those populations are really heavily represented on Election Day,” he said.

Stewart reiterated that with the pandemic over, a good number of the 2020 early voters will likely shift back to Election Day voting, especially if it presents itself as the easier option for their locations and schedules.

As for the future, Steward predicted that the rise in Republican voters voting early will continue in future cycles along with the overall trend of the electorate opting for early voting.

“The data is showing this organic increase in early voting even after the pandemic,” he said. “Voters want more options, and they will seriously consider voting if they have more choices.”

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