Category: Business

(WASHINGTON) –The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, opting for its second interest rate cut this year in an effort to jumpstart the flagging labor market.

The widely expected move delivers a lowering of interest rates sought by President Donald Trump, though the size of the cut falls short of the major drawdown called for repeatedly by the president.

The policy marks the first interest rate adjustment since the outset of a weekslong government shutdown that threatens to cool economic activity, all the while sharply restricting the release of gold-standard federal data prized by Fed policymakers.

In a rare exception, the U.S. government issued an inflation report last week showing a continued acceleration of price increases, which may complicate the Fed’s attempt to revive the labor market.

Inflation has picked up in recent months while hiring has slowed, posing a risk of an economic double-whammy known as “stagflation.”

Those economic conditions have put the Federal Reserve in a bind, since the central bank must balance a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment.

“Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months,” the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a policymaking body at the Fed, said in a statement on Wednesday.

If the Fed raises interest rates as a means of protecting against tariff-induced inflation, it risks tipping the economy into a downturn. On the other hand, if the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy in the face of a hiring slowdown, it threatens to boost spending and worsen inflation.

Last month, the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point, opting for its first interest rate cut this year. The federal funds rate stands between 3.75% and 4%, preserving much of a sharp increase imposed in response to a pandemic-era bout of inflation.

Last month, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a policymaking body at the Fed, projected two additional quarter-point rate cuts over the remainder of the year. By contrast, Trump has called for rate cuts totaling as much as 3 percentage points.

Trump has carried out a pressure campaign at the Fed with little precedent.

In recent months, Trump moved to fire one member of the Fed’s board of governors and secure Senate confirmation for another. Both officials were among the 12 policymakers who cast votes on last month’s interest-rate decision, though their status remained uncertain days before the Fed meeting. They both stand poised to cast votes again on Wednesday.

Stephen Miran, a top White House economic advisor who joined the Fed last month, cast the lone vote in favor of a larger half-point rate cut.

Trump attempted to fire board member Lisa Cook, who sued Trump over her attempted ouster, saying the decision violated her legal protections as an employee at the independent federal agency. Trump said he removed Cook over mortgage fraud allegations against her.

Federal law allows the president to remove a member of the Fed board “for cause,” though no president has attempted such a removal in the 112-year history of the central bank.

Last month, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction requiring the Fed to let Cook continue serving in her role as a governor of the Federal Reserve System as her lawsuit moves through the courts.

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(WASHINGTON) — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will set the level of its benchmark interest rate, adjusting a major policy lever for the first time since a government shutdown sharply restricted the release of gold-standard federal data about the economy.

In a rare exception, the U.S. government issued an inflation report last week showing a continued acceleration of price increases, which may complicate the Fed’s effort to revive a flagging labor market.

In recent months, inflation has picked up while hiring has slowed, posing a risk of an economic double-whammy known as “stagflation.”

The economic conditions have put the Federal Reserve in a bind. If the Fed raises interest rates as a means of protecting against tariff-induced inflation, it risks tipping the economy into a downturn. On the other hand, if the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy in the face of a hiring slowdown, it threatens to boost spending and worsen inflation.

Last month, the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point, opting for its first interest rate cut this year in an effort to revive the labor market. The federal funds rate stands between 4% and 4.25%, preserving much of a sharp increase imposed in response to a pandemic-era bout of inflation.

Policymakers are widely expected to make an additional quarter-point cut on Wednesday, according to CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.

“It’s a challenging situation when our goals are in tension like this,” Powell said last month, but he added that the balance of risks had shifted toward greater concern over sluggish hiring.

The posture delivers a policy shift long-sought by President Donald Trump, though the size of the anticipated rate cut will all but certainly fall short of Trump’s desired outcome.

Last month, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a policymaking body at the Fed, projected two additional quarter-point rate cuts over the remainder of the year. By contrast, Trump has called for rate cuts totaling as much as 3 percentage points.

Trump has carried out a pressure campaign at the Fed with little precedent.

In recent months, Trump moved to fire one member of the Fed’s board of governors and secure Senate confirmation for another. Both officials were among the 12 policymakers who cast votes on last month’s interest-rate decision, though their status remained uncertain days before the Fed meeting. They both stand poised to cast votes again on Wednesday.

Stephen Miran, a top White House economic advisor who joined the Fed last month, cast the lone vote in favor of a larger half-point rate cut.

Trump attempted to fire board member Lisa Cook, who sued Trump over her attempted ouster, saying the decision violated her legal protections as an employee at the independent federal agency. Trump said he removed Cook over mortgage fraud allegations against her.

Federal law allows the president to remove a member of the Fed board “for cause,” though no president has attempted such a removal in the 112-year history of the central bank.

Last month, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction requiring the Fed to let Cook continue serving in her role as a governor of the Federal Reserve System as her lawsuit moves through the courts.

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(NEW YORK) — Amazon is set to lay off thousands of corporate workers, despite billions in profits and lucrative lines of business spanning from e-commerce to cloud computing. The reason is artificial intelligence, the company said in a memo to employees on Tuesday.

“Some may ask why we’re reducing roles when the company is performing well,” wrote Beth Galetti, Senior Vice President of People Experience and Technology at Amazon.

“What we need to remember is that the world is changing quickly. This generation of AI is the most transformative technology we’ve seen since the Internet, and it’s enabling companies to innovate much faster than ever before,” Galetti added.

The extensive job cuts at a high-profile tech giant mark the latest in a series of layoffs top executives have attributed to AI, citing efficiency gains and shifting company priorities, some experts told ABC News.

Such job losses underscore the threat posed by AI, especially for some white-collar corporate positions, but the ultimate business impact of the technology remains uncertain and other factors like a slowing economy may be to blame for some of the corporate downsizing, they added.

“This is a wake-up call. And if Amazon does it, other companies might do it too,” Harry Holzer, a professor of public policy at Georgetown University and a former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Labor, told ABC News.

But, he added: “AI will affect a lot of different workers and businesses in ways we can’t anticipate. We have to keep monitoring it and help them adapt when changes occur.”

The fresh round of layoffs at Amazon follows other high-profile job cuts attributed to AI. Software company Salesforce cut 4,000 customer service jobs in September, just months after the company said AI could perform up to 50% of its work. Airline Lufthansa slashed 4,000 positions that same month, citing the “increased use of artificial intelligence.”

Online learning company Chegg said on Monday it had cut 45% of its global workforce — which amounts to 388 jobs — because new AI tools had significantly reduced web traffic previously generated by Google searches. Chegg slashed employees as it made its own investment in AI in an effort to deliver services with a “substantially lower cost structure,” the company said.

The World Economic Forum this year surveyed 1,000 large companies worldwide, estimating 92 million jobs lost over the next five years as a result of AI adoption, but anticipating the creation of 170 million jobs.

The AI-related layoffs at Amazon and some other firms reflect a “hollowing out of middle-skilled workers,” Lynn Wu, a professor of operations, information and decisions at the University of Pennsylvania, told ABC News.

“Amazon is not cutting warehouse workers. Robots can’t do what hands do yet,” Wu said. “And very high-skill workers — people developing robots and building AI — are still in high demand.”

The fresh round of layoffs affect a fraction of Amazon’s worldwide workforce, which amounted to 1.56 million people at the end of last year.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in June that the company plans to revamp its positions as it adopts AI, telling employees in a memo that Amazon would need “fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today, and more people doing other types of jobs.”

Amazon said on Tuesday that it plans to “continue hiring in key strategic areas while also finding additional places we can remove layers, increase ownership, and realize efficiency gains.”

United Parcel Service (UPS) said Tuesday the company had cut 14,000 management positions this year, while slashing an additional 34,000 operational roles.

UPS sought to “create a more efficient operating model that was more responsive to market dynamics,” the company said, but its announcement did not mention AI.

To be sure, some experts downplayed the impact of AI, saying the productivity benefits of the technology remain uncertain and recent layoffs may owe to a host of other factors, including a wider economic slowdown. Many economists expect AI to add new job opportunities, even as it eliminates others, they noted.

In August, a report issued by MIT’s Media Lab found 95% of corporate AI initiatives generate zero return. The study examined more than 300 publicly disclosed AI ventures, drawing on over 150 surveys of executives.

“AI is an extremely useful, transformative technology, but I think we still need to work on it more to realize its full effects,” Isabella Loaiza, a researcher at MIT who studies AI and the workforce, told ABC News. “The role AI is playing in job losses is perhaps being overstated.”

“Companies really, really want to make AI work,” Loaiza added, but the ultimate implications of their initiatives for the labor market remains unclear. “It’s hard to know,” she added.

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(NEW YORK) — Prices for home appliances, cars and auto parts could be impacted by President Donald Trump’s decision overnight to end trade talks between the U.S. and Canada, some trade experts told ABC News.

Trump said he’s terminating trade negotiations with Canada in response to a negative TV advertisement about tariffs rolled out earlier this month by the Canadian province of Ontario.

“TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A. Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED,” Trump posted on his social media platform.

The ad features audio with excerpts of a 1987 address by then-President Ronald Reagan that came as he imposed some duties on Japanese products but cautioned about the long-term economic risks of high tariffs and the threat of a trade war.

Trump claimed, without evidence, that the ad aimed to sway the outcome of a U.S. Supreme Court case over the tariffs, which is set to come before justices next month. In a post on X, Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged cooperation between the two countries.

“Canada and the United States are friends, neighbours and allies. President Ronald Reagan knew that we are stronger together. God bless Canada and God bless the United States,” Ford said.

Canadian goods currently face steep 35% tariffs, though many of those exports to the U.S. remain duty-free because the policy excludes products compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, a free trade agreement.

A separate swathe of Canadian products is subject to sector-specific tariffs, such as 50% levies on steel and aluminum.

In trade negotiations, Canada sought to reduce or lift the steel and aluminum tariffs, but a halt to discussions could keep those in place for an extended period, experts said. Canada is the top exporter of steel and aluminum to the U.S.

Steel and aluminum are found in a host of goods, including home appliances, food packaging, cars and auto parts, some experts added.

“Trade talks could’ve resulted in the lowering of existing tariffs,” Michael Sposi, a professor of economics at Southern Methodist University, told ABC News.

Steel is the top material by weight in a car, accounting for about 60% of its weight, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.

When steel imports face stiff taxes, the price of steel paid by U.S. manufacturers rises, meaning higher input costs for automakers, experts previously told ABC News. Those companies, they added, are likely to hike prices for consumers as a means of offsetting some of those costs.

Major home appliances — such as refrigerators, dishwashers and washing machines — rely in part on steel, making them vulnerable to elevated prices due to tariffs.

In June, Trump suspended talks over Canada’s plans for a Digital Service Tax, which would have imposed a 3% levy on U.S. technology companies. Talks resumed days later after Canada abandoned plans for the tax.

Last year, the U.S. ran a trade deficit with Canada of $63 billion, which marked a slight decrease from the previous year, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. By comparison, the U.S. ran a larger trade deficit last year with its other top trading partners: A $295 billion deficit with China and a $171 billion deficit with Mexico.

The U.S. makes up the destination for roughly three-quarters of Canadian exports, while such products make up about 11% of U.S. imports.

The list of major Canadian exports to the U.S. also includes crude oil, natural gas and motor vehicles, though many of those goods remain tariff-free on account of their compliance with the USMCA.

The USMCA is up for a joint review next year, giving the countries an opportunity to amend the agreement. If Trump’s renewed frustrations affect the outcome of those negotiations, it could impact the price of some additional imported products such as cars, Tyler Schipper, a professor of economics at the University of St. Thomas, told ABC News.

“The breakdown of these talks about current tariffs probably doesn’t bode well for those negotiations,” Schipper said.

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(NEW YORK) — Social security benefits will rise 2.8% starting in January, amounting to an additional $56 per month for 75 million recipients, the Social Security Administration (SSA) said on Friday.

The cost-of-living adjustment for 2026, known as COLA, came in slightly higher than the prior year’s hike of 2.5%. Over the past decade, the average COLA clocked in at 3.1%.

The announcement on Friday came after inflation data for September showed a slight acceleration of price increases, sending inflation to its highest level since January. The fresh reading marked the final piece of data necessary for SSA to calculate COLA for 2026.

“Social Security is a promise kept, and the annual cost-of-living adjustment is one way we are working to make sure benefits reflect today’s economic realities and continue to provide a foundation of security,” SSA Commissioner Frank J. Bisignano said in a statement.

The agency will also hike the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax, elevating taxable income from $176,100 to $184,500.

SSA will start notifying recipients about their new benefit amount by mail starting in early December, the agency said.

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(NEW YORK) — Consumer prices rose 3% in September compared to a year ago, extending a monthslong uptick that has sent inflation to its highest level since January, government data on Friday showed. The reading came in lower than economists’ expectations.

The fresh data marked a slight increase from a 2.9% year-over-year increase recorded a month prior. An acceleration of price increases over recent months has coincided with a flurry of tariffs issued by President Donald Trump.

Beef prices soared nearly 15% over the year ending in September, data showed. Trump has set off outcry among some ranchers over a plan to import beef from Argentina in an effort to reduce U.S. prices.

Egg prices, a longtime symbol of rising costs, fell almost 5% in September. The price of eggs stands about 1% lower than where it was a year ago. The price of coffee has surged 19% over the past year, the data showed.

The White House touted the September inflation numbers coming in below economists’ expectations on Friday, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt posting on social media that they were “good news” for American families. 

Leavitt also said on X that the ongoing government shutdown would likely result in no inflation report for October, “which will leave businesses, markets, families, and the Federal Reserve in disarray.”

The data arrived more than a week later than originally planned, since the government shutdown has severely hamstrung the release of information about the economy.

The latest acceleration of price increases comes at a wobbly moment for the nation’s economy. In recent months, inflation has picked up while hiring has slowed, posing a risk of an economic double-whammy known as “stagflation.”

The economic conditions have put the Federal Reserve in a bind. If the Fed raises interest rates as a means of protecting against tariff-induced inflation, it risks tipping the economy into a downturn. On the other hand, if the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy in the face of a hiring slowdown, it threatens to boost spending and worsen inflation.

Last month, the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point, opting for its first interest rate cut this year in an effort to revive the labor market.

“It’s a challenging situation when our goals are in tension like this,” Powell said, but he added that the balance of risks had shifted toward greater concern over sluggish hiring.

Policymakers are widely expected to make an additional quarter-point cut when they meet next week, according to CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.

But an elevated inflation reading on Friday could give Fed officials pause, since a rate cut would increase the likelihood of a spike in demand that further drives up prices.

In recent months, tariffs modestly contributed to the uptick in overall inflation, analysts previously told ABC News, but overall price increases owed largely to a rise in housing and food products with little connection to Trump’s levies.

Last week, President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on all China-made goods starting Nov. 1 in response to restrictions placed on rare earth minerals. Beijing has publicly stood firm on the policy, leaving the two sides at an impasse with massive implications for the price of consumer goods imported from China.

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(NEW YORK) — Car buyers may face elevated prices and a shortage of some vehicles due to a supply chain snarled by tariffs and challenges accessing crucial materials, some industry experts told ABC News.

A shortage of aluminum halted production at plants operated by Jeep and Ford earlier this month, pausing the output of some Jeep SUVs and Ford trucks, the Wall Street Journal reported. Meanwhile, a trade spat between the U.S. and China has raised questions about the availability of semiconductors, a critical part at the center of a pandemic-era supply shock.

Those disruptions follow far-reaching U.S. tariffs that have hit foreign automakers and added complications for domestic companies long-intertwined with manufacturers in Canada and Mexico.

The headwinds swirling in the auto industry could make it more difficult for consumers to find their desired vehicle at an affordable price, but carmakers may opt to absorb potential added costs and ease pain for buyers, some experts said. For now, they noted, uncertainty about the level of supply disruption leaves the outcome unclear.

“You start to roll all of this together and it does get significant,” Peter Morici, a professor emeritus at the University of Maryland’s School of Business, told ABC News. “My feeling is that there just have been too many disruptions for this not to affect the availability of automobiles if this goes on long enough. This question is whether it will.”

Stellantis, the parent company of Jeep, declined ABC News’ request for comment. Ford did not respond to the request.

Steep tariffs of 25% on vehicles imported into the U.S. went into effect in April, hiking costs for foreign-made cars, SUVs, minivans, cargo vans and light trucks. Within hours of the policy rollout, Ferrari said it would raise prices by as much as 10% for some models to compensate for the tariffs.

Widespread tariff-driven price increases have never materialized, however.

The policy largely exempted vehicles covered by a free trade agreement between the U.S. and Canada known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. For such cars, the tariffs only apply to the value of their non-U.S. content, a fraction of the overall cost, the White House said.

Some trade agreements with other nations resulted in lower auto tariffs, including deals with top car exporters Japan and the European Union. Last week, Trump extended a rebate for U.S. automakers meant to cushion the blow of tariff-related costs.

Still, top automakers tallied hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff-related expenses. Those costs risk colliding with concerns over the availability of aluminum and semiconductors, some experts said.

“The fact that it’s all coming at them is a challenge for automakers,” Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds, told ABC News, noting the companies had yet to pass along the costs to consumers in the form of higher prices.

“We haven’t seen a lot of impact of tariffs; we haven’t seen a lot of impact of the supply chain. That doesn’t mean we won’t eventually,” Caldwell added.

Earlier this month, China significantly tightened its restrictions on rare earth elements, which make up a key input in semiconductors found in an array of products from cars to home appliances.

The move prompted President Donald Trump to threaten 100% tariffs on all China-made goods next month. Beijing has publicly stood firm on the policy, leaving the two sides at an impasse with massive implications for U.S. automakers.

“The semiconductor is worrisome because it’s in so many things in the car. It’s not just in a body panel but it could be in the seats, the entertainment system — anything basically,” Caldwell said.

To be sure, the ultimate consumer impact of supply chain disruption remains uncertain, experts said. Carmakers may continue to absorb tariff-related costs in an effort to maintain price levels and protect their share of the market, they added.

“I see manufacturers absorbing more of the pain in the short term so they don’t lose customers,” Joseph McCabe, president and CEO of advisory firm AutoForecast Solutions, told ABC News.

Even so, the cloudy forecast should nudge some buyers to move forward with a planned purchase instead of holding out for better conditions, Caldwell said.

“It’s probably a good idea to keep your eyes open for deals,” she added. “I wouldn’t hesitate to buy earlier rather than thinking, ‘Maybe in the future it will be a better time to buy.’ I’m not sure it will be.”

Morici, of the University of Maryland, agreed. “If you want to buy a car in the next month, you should do it — if you can get a good deal,” Morici said.

 

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(NEW YORK) — With new tariffs taking effect Tuesday on furniture and lumber, an analysis released by Goldman Sachs finds American consumers are paying for more than half of the cost of the levies imposed by President Donald Trump.

In a research note to its clients, the global investment and banking giant said U.S. consumers will absorb 55% of tariff costs by the end of this year. American businesses would pay 22% of the costs, foreign exporters would absorb 18% and 5% would be evaded, according to the Goldman Sachs analysis.

Consumers could end up paying 70% of the cost by the end of next year, the report said.

“At the moment, however, U.S. businesses are likely bearing a larger share of the costs because some tariffs have just gone into effect and it takes time to raise prices on consumers and negotiate lower import prices with foreign suppliers,” the analysis adds.

In a statement to ABC News, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said, “Americans may face a transition period from tariffs,” but insisted “the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by foreign exporters.”

“Companies are already shifting and diversifying their supply chains in response to tariffs, including by onshoring production to the United States,” Desai said. “Americans can rest assured that the Administration will continue to deliver economic relief from Joe Biden’s inflation crisis while laying the groundwork for a long-term restoration of American Greatness.”

The Yale Budget Lab reported on Sept. 26 that U.S. consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 17.9% – the highest since 1934.

In August, Trump blasted Goldman Sachs’ CEO David Solomon and the firm’s economists after they put out a report saying consumers will absorb tariff costs.

The new Goldman analysis, which was released on Sunday, does not take into account Trump’s latest threat to impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports set to take effect on Nov. 1.

And on Tuesday, new tariffs kick in at midnight. Timber and lumber imports will face an additional 10% tariff.

Home-building costs have also been soaring and are expected to climb higher with the new tariffs on lumber. A UBS report said the new tariffs on wood products could add another $1,000 to the average cost of building a home, on top of the $8,000 in tariff costs home builders have already seen this year.

Kitchen cabinets and upholstered furniture will face new 25% tariffs. Homebuilders and some furniture companies have warned that those higher costs could mean higher prices for consumers.

Other domestic furniture makers have celebrated the new tariffs.

“These factories are the most likely to see increased demand for their domestically-produced products, because imported upholstered furniture that was previously in the same price range now will be subject to the new tariffs,” the American Home Furnishings Alliance said in a statement to ABC News.

The U.S. imported $25.5 billion in furniture in 2024, up 7% from the previous year, according to trade outlet Furniture Today. Vietnam and China accounted for roughly 60% of the imports, the report found.

In recent months, Trump has placed country-specific tariffs on the top furniture exporters. Products from Vietnam face a 20% tariff, for instance, while Chinese imports encounter a 30% levy.

The overall price of furniture has gone up 4.7% since August 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices for living room and dining room furniture have climbed 9.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Furniture prices soared 1.4% over three months ending in June, when compared to the previous three-month period, the government’s personal consumption expenditure index shows.

“This is a big jump,” Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told ABC News in an August interview, noting the index had largely declined between the mid-1990s and the mid-2010s. “It’s difficult to see many positives from a consumer standpoint at the moment.”

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(NEW YORK) — Consumer sentiment soured in October as a government shutdown threatens to weaken a wobbly economy beset by an uptick in inflation and a sharp slowdown of hiring, fresh data on Friday showed. The reading marked a decrease from the previous month but it came in higher than economists expected.

Shopper attitudes have worsened for three consecutive months, resuming a decline that took hold after President Donald Trump took office, University of Michigan Survey data showed.

At its low point this year, consumer sentiment fell close to its worst level since an acute bout of inflation three years ago. The measure remains well below where it stood in December, before Trump took office.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down from 4.7% in September to 4.6% in October, the data showed. The outcome anticipated by respondents would put inflation well above its current level of 2.9%. Long-run inflation expectations held steady from the previous month, data showed.

The data on consumer sentiment is likely to garner more attention than usual, since the government shutdown has halted closely watched releases from the federal government, including monthly jobs and inflation reports.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is a key bellwether for the outlook of the nation’s economy.

A government shutdown typically risks only modest damage for the economy but it can cause a marked decline in consumer sentiment, threatening a later drop in consumer spending, some experts previously told ABC News.

Consumer sentiment fell more than 7 points from December 2018 to January 2019, coinciding with the most recent 35-day government shutdown, according to a Committee for Responsible Federal Budget analysis of University of Michigan survey data. A souring of consumer sentiment, albeit limited, occurred over each of the three most recent shutdowns that preceded 2018.

The government shutdown, which entered its 10th day on Friday, has shown little sign of resolution. The Senate has rejected dueling funding proposals from Democrats and Republicans in seven separate votes.

The shutdown has coincided with a delicate moment for the nation’s economy, as a hiring slowdown stokes recession fears and inflation proves difficult to fully contain.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last month that policymakers face a “challenging situation” while they attempt to navigate the economy through a “turbulent period.”

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(WASHINGTON) — The government shutdown halted the release of key economic data, choking off the flow of information as some experts warn the economy may be slipping toward a recession, some economists told ABC News.

A federal agency postponed the release of a monthly jobs report on Friday, leaving observers in the dark about the status of a sharp hiring slowdown. If the government shutdown stretches into next week, fresh inflation figures will go unreported, masking price levels in the midst of rising costs.

Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a memo to clients on Monday, lamented the “data vacuum.”

The absence of government data heightens uncertainty at a fraught moment for the U.S. economy, potentially hamstringing responses from consumers, businesses and policymakers, some economists told ABC News. The extent of possible shutdown-induced economic damage could also go undetected, they added.

“It adds to risk and uncertainty at a most inopportune time,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, told ABC News. “Now we’re all essentially looking through a fog.”

The government shutdown entered its sixth day on Monday. The Senate has rejected dueling funding proposals from Democrats and Republicans in four separate votes, most recently on Friday.

The U.S. Department of Labor last week said some data would not be released during the shutdown, including closely watched monthly jobs and inflation reports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau — two important sources of additional data — also said they will pause scheduled releases for the duration of a shutdown.

The loss of data has arrived at an uneasy period for the economy. In recent months, the economy has suffered a sharp hiring slowdown alongside a rise in inflation, setting the conditions for what economists call “stagflation.”

The downshift in hiring has proven especially worrisome, stoking concern among some economists about a possible recession.

A jobs report last month showed a sharp decrease in hiring in August, extending a lackluster period for the labor market. Meanwhile, a revision of previous hiring estimates days later revealed the U.S. economy added far fewer jobs in 2024 and early 2025 than previously estimated, deepening concern.

“The job market is the primary area of concern for the U.S. economy,” Hamrick said, adding that the hiring cooldown suggests a 40% risk of a recession over the next 12 months. “That’s an elevated recession risk.”

Without up-to-date government data, businesses may be hesitant to take actions such as major expansions or hiring sprees, while consumers could seek to avoid big-ticket purchases, some experts said.

“In general, the absence of economic data makes the economic trajectory more uncertain as it forces investors and business executives to be more cautious,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at accounting firm EY, told ABC News.

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its next interest rate decision on Oct. 29, following a meeting between members of the FOMC. If the government shutdown remains in place ahead of that meeting, it could leave Fed officials ill-equipped to set the best policy, Hamrick said.

“This is an exceptionally difficult period to read where inflation is going and where growth is going,” Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University, told ABC News.

To be sure, an interruption of data releases could leave investors unaware of possible improvement in the economy. Some experts noted the continued availability of private sector data sources, though observers typically view such data as inferior to government statistics.

A government shutdown typically risks only modest damage to the U.S. economy, stemming mainly from furloughed public workers, who temporarily lose out on pay and put a dent in U.S. consumer spending.

Each week of a potential government shutdown would reduce annualized real gross domestic product growth in the quarter by about 0.1%, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told ABC News in a statement.

For reference, the economy grew by an average annualized rate of 1.6% over the first half of 2025, meaning it would take several weeks of a government shutdown for notable damage to be incurred.

An absence of economic data could make it more difficult for observers to identify the economic impact of the shutdown, some experts said.

“Typically, shutdowns are not major events, but nothing is typical about the current environment,” Rogoff said.

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