Business

Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada hurtle toward deadline amid trade talks

Donald Trump speaks with guests during an event announcing the expansion of a foster care initiative in the Rose Garden of the White House on August 20, 2026 in Washington, DC. Finn Gomez/Getty Images

(WASHINGTON) — President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods are set to take effect early Saturday morning, just days after he pushed back a previous deadline while the two sides negotiated a trade agreement.

Trump claimed earlier this week the United States had reached a preliminary deal to resolve a dispute with one of its top trade partners, saying the breakthrough had prompted him to issue a reprieve from the levies.

A statement from Canada appeared to downplay Trump’s assertion about the trade agreement, touting “substantial progress” but noting that important work remained.

The new tariffs, targeting dozens of products from hockey sticks to wine, are poised to take hold at 12:01 a.m. ET on Saturday.

Due to exemptions on key goods, the tariffs were expected to hit only a fraction of U.S. imports from Canada. Still, the list of affected goods features an array of food items such as dairy products, honey, whey protein and molasses as well as alcoholic beverages like whiskey and vodka.

It all comes weeks after Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs on 60 trade partners, including the European Union. Those levies ramped up an effort to reconstruct far-reaching duties struck down by the Supreme Court earlier this year.

Trump said Wednesday that he had held a “very good conversation” with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday night, repeating that he’d struck a deal to avert the 50% American tariff on a hodgepodge of Canadian goods.

The president claimed that as part of the deal, Canadian tariffs on American agricultural goods would be “non-existent.”

“The tariffs will be non-existent for our farmers. Our farmers were paying tremendous tariffs into Canada. And those tariffs are going to be totally eviscerated down to zero,” Trump noted.

In a statement, Carney said the country’s representatives aimed to achieve an agreement that would bolster its domestic industry.

“While we continue this work, Canada remains focused on building a stronger, more independent, and more competitive economy at home,” Carney said in a statement.

When later asked by a reporter whether the deal would reduce tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, Trump added, “Well, we’re looking at that.”

The U.S. trade representative’s office on X responded to Trump’s announcement Tuesday, providing a bit of insight into what a final deal might entail.

“The deal will include comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers, along with our Canadian partners,” the USTR posted.

Trump had suggested the deal might include a renewed effort to build the Keystone Pipeline despite the project being canceled in 2021 after years of criticism about the project’s environmental impact.

“Keystone XL Pipeline, long ago killed by Sleepy Joe Biden, may be awoken from the grave!” Trump added in the post.

Unlike previous tariffs, the new U.S. tariffs on Canada would have applied to products compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, a free trade agreement. The levies included significant exemptions, however, leaving out some top Canadian imports such as oil, gas and potash.

Trump has carried out on-again, off-again trade negotiations with Canada since he took office, aiming to resolve a dispute that began with tariffs announced by Trump early in his second term.

Trump sought to impose the new tariffs under a legal authority enshrined in section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which allows the president to enact levies up to 50% for countries found to have discriminated against the U.S. relative to their treatment of other nations.

The provision has never been invoked before, meaning the move lacks judicial precedent, Abigail Watt, an economist at UBS, said in a memo shared with ABC News.

ABC News’ Michelle Stoddart contributed to this report.

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Business

Trump-linked crypto venture World Liberty Trust granted bank status in unprecedented move for president

The NASDAQ display in Times Square is seen as the $1.5B partnership between World Liberty Financial (WLFI) and ALT5 Sigma is marked with with the ringing of the NASDAQ opening bell by Eric Trump, the newly appointed ALT5 Board Director of World Liberty Financial, on August 13, 2025 in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

(WASHINGTON) — A Trump-appointed national bank regulator granted a wing of the Trump family’s crypto business conditional approval to establish a bank charter, opening the door for larger clients and potentially heightened profits.

The decision marks the first time in U.S. history that a company owned by the sitting president’s family has been granted bank status, as Democratic lawmakers express concerns over potential conflicts of interest.

In a letter published Friday, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency granted World Liberty Trust Co., an organization that is 38% owned by “an entity affiliated with Donald J. Trump and certain of his family members,” according to its website, the ability to issue stablecoin cryptocurrency tied to the U.S. dollar.

World Liberty Financial, the listed sponsor of the conditionally approved trust, has previously relied on a third-party crypto company, BitGo, to provide a stable digital currency. Friday’s approval allows the Trump family’s business to cut out the middleman and provide the service directly. 

Digital currencies, like Bitcoin, are historically volatile and therefore less appealing for entities making large transactions.

Crypto tied to more stable values, like the U.S. dollar or the price of gold, can be more attractive to big spenders and can be “marketed for use as a means of making payments, transmitting money, or storing value,” according to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The decision allows the Trump-linked business to act as a bank, issuing digital currency to clients for transactions. Clients would exchange the U.S. dollar for the stablecoin, with profits going directly to the Trump family’s crypto business. 

The president’s family has seen extensive profit from World Liberty Financial, securing around $5 billion in the company’s first days after going public, according to the token’s value at the time, with major investments from individuals and foreign nations continuing to fuel the company’s value.

Trump himself has made more than $1.4 billion in business revenue from his family’s crypto ventures, according to his released financial disclosures. 

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly has maintained that the president “only acts in the best interests of the American public,” and said that no conflict of interest exists in part because the president’s assets are held in a blind trust managed by his children. Typically, a blind trust would operate with an independent trustee.

“President Trump’s assets are in a trust managed by his children,” Kelly said. “There are no conflicts of interest.”

State-backed Abu Dhabi investment firm MGX invested another $2 billion in the company in May 2025, promising to use the Trump family’s USD1 stablecoin in large transactions with crypto exchange company Binance.

The deal later came under scrutiny when the Trump administration then agreed to supply the UAE with highly coveted American-made AI chips despite prior administration concerns that they may make their way to China.

“We thank MGX and Binance for their trust in us, and I think it’s only the beginning,” World Liberty Financial co-founder Zach Witkoff said after announcing the deal, alongside the president’s son Eric Trump at a crypto convention in Dubai.

Witkoff is the son of the president’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff.

Ranking Member of the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., urged the OCC to halt approval of Trump-linked business ventures, writing a letter to the comptroller in January. As an executive branch office, the president has ultimate authority over the OCC, though the office considers itself independent.

“For the first time in history, the president of the United States would be in charge of overseeing his own financial company,” Warren wrote.

Following the OCC’s preliminary approval, Warren described the decision as the “most brazen act of self-dealing our financial system has ever seen.”

“I’m introducing a bill to stop this kind of unprecedented corruption,” Warren said in a post on social media.

“The Comptroller and staff acted consistently with their statutory duties and ethical obligations with respect to the Application,” the OCC wrote Friday. “OCC staff reviewed this Application in accordance with the agency’s established policies and procedures.”

The charter application will not be fully approved until some conditions are met, including increasing the company’s capital, the OCC said.

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Business

Jobs report shows US unexpectedly lost jobs in July

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks during a news conference at Federal Reserve Headquarters on July 29, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

(WASHINGTON) — The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in July, demonstrating a wobbly labor market as shoppers continued to withstand a surge of inflation set off by the Iran war.

The U.S. lost 23,000 jobs in July, according to the federal government’s monthly jobs report, which marked a decline from 57,000 jobs added in June.

The unemployment rate fell slightly from 4.2% in June to 4.1% in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.

The lackluster figure recorded in July departs from largely resilient performance for the labor market so far in 2026, despite a historic oil shock that has driven up fuel prices and hiked supply-chain costs for a host of other goods.

A government report issued last week showed a steeper slowdown in gross domestic product than expected over three months ending in June, however, suggesting strain in the underlying economy over the early months of the war.

The U.S. added an average of 92,000 jobs per month over the first half of 2026, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed. That pace marks an improvement from an average of about 7,000 jobs lost per month over the second half of 2025.

The Iran war drove up gasoline prices and catapulted inflation to a three-year high in May. A preliminary peace agreement in June offered up some relief, but a burst of on-again, off-again fighting in recent weeks caused crude prices to rise again.

The combination of elevated inflation and a resilient labor market has raised the chances of an interest rate hike, futures markets show. Investors peg the odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month at about 56%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.

The Fed opted to hold interest rates steady at its meeting last week, but central bankers appeared divided over the move. Three of the 12 members on the Fed’s policymaking board voted in favor of a rate hike, marking the largest number of dissenters casting ballots in the same direction since 2016.

A rate increase, however, could risk a slowdown in hiring and economic growth over the coming months as corporations face the prospect of higher borrowing costs.

The benchmark rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who took the helm of the central bank this summer, has repeatedly vowed to dial back inflation.

“The committee remains resolute — you’ve heard this before — that we will deliver price stability,” Warsh told reporters in Washington, D.C., last week.

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Business

Inflation fell more than expected in June as gas prices eased

A shopper browses near ‘Sale’ signs in the meats section of a grocery store on July 7, 2026 in Pasadena, California. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

(NEW YORK) — Inflation dropped more than expected in June as gas prices eased in response to negotiations between U.S. and Iran over the Middle East conflict.

Prices rose 3.5% in June compared to a year earlier, marking a retreat from a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.2% in the prior month, federal government data released on Tuesday morning showed.

The reading for June marks the lowest inflation since March, though the pace of price increases remains more than a percentage point higher than its pre-war level.

Last month, oil prices fell to their lowest level since before the late February outbreak of the Iran war. That drop came after a preliminary agreement included provisions aimed at resolving a global crude shortage.

A spike in oil prices over recent days amid a resumption of fighting, however, threatens to push gas prices higher, erasing some of the relief delivered last month.

Brent crude futures, the benchmark index for worldwide trading, rose to $86.90 a barrel on Tuesday. That figure stood roughly even with its level a month earlier, though it remained more than 20% higher than its pre-war level.

The inflation report on Tuesday offered some additional bright spots outside of energy prices.

Core inflation — a measure of price increases that strips out volatile food and energy prices — clocked at 2.6% over the year ending in June. That reading indicated a slight decline from the previous month, suggesting the cooldown had extended beyond gasoline.

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Business

Oil prices climb and stocks fall after Trump says he thinks Iran agreement ‘over’

Shot of oil pumps (Olga Rolenko/Getty Images)

(NEW YORK) — Oil prices climbed and stocks tumbled in early trading on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said he believes an agreement with Iran is “over” amid an exchange of strikes in the Middle East.

Brent crude, the benchmark measure for worldwide oil trading, climbed more than 5% in early trading on Wednesday, pushing the price up to nearly $78 a barrel.

Oil prices stand above pre-war levels, though they have fallen from a high of as much as $118 reached earlier in the conflict.

Stock prices fell in response to the heightened tensions and rising oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 600 points, or 1.1%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.4%.

The war prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route that facilitates about one-fifth of worldwide oil supply. In turn, the global economy suffered a historic oil shock, sending oil prices surging.

A U.S.-Iran agreement last month, however, included a provision allowing commercial shipping to resume through the strait, and to do so toll-free for 60 days. Over the ensuing weeks, oil prices prices fell below pre-war levels.

The tensions in recent days rekindled upward pressure on oil prices.

Trump said that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will continue, but he told reporters of the agreement, “For me, I think it’s over.”

“It’s just a waste of time dealing with them,” Trump said of Iran at a press conference in Ankara, Turkey, where he is attending the NATO summit.

Iran’s military said it launched on Wednesday attacks targeting 85 U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, saying they were retaliatory strikes following a wave of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets.

U.S. forces hit over 80 targets overnight in a new round of airstrikes that came as an “immediate response” to Iran’s attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Central Command.

ABC News’ Joe Simonetti contributed to this report.

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Business

Do heat waves damage the economy? Experts explain

Melting street thermometer against bright summer sun.High temperature.Summer heat. (Dmitriy83/Getty Images)

(NEW YORK) — A heat wave blanketed a vast swathe of the United States over the 4th of July weekend, threatening the health of tens of millions of people and the power supply for thousands of homes.

A lesser-known risk of extreme heat, meanwhile, may hammer pocketbooks.

Heat waves threaten an array of costs for the economy, sapping the productivity of outdoor workers, shutting some shoppers inside their homes and driving up utility payments, some analysts told ABC News. All in all, they added, those effects could shrink output and hike some costs in areas impacted by heat waves.

“Extreme heat has economic consequences,” Justin Mankin, a professor of geography at Dartmouth University, told ABC News. “The consequences seem to be negative just about everywhere.”

Heat waves are becoming more frequent, more intense and longer lasting due to human-amplified climate change, according to the federal government’s Fifth National Climate Assessment. The average number of heat waves in major U.S. cities each year has doubled since the 1980s, that report said.

Extreme heat is considered the deadliest weather-related hazard in the U.S., according to the National Weather Service. About 2,000 Americans die each year on average from extreme heat, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted.

A body of research indicates that heat waves also risk damage for the economy.

A study issued last year by researchers at the University of Florida, the European Stability Mechanism and the International Monetary Fund — which examined 203 countries over a 40-year period — found that an increased frequency of high temperatures and harsh droughts resulted in a 0.2% decline in gross domestic product (GDP).

Another report found total heat-related economic losses in the trillions of dollars. Taken together, economic damage from human-caused extreme heat likely cost as much as $50 trillion worldwide over a recent 30-year period, according to a 2022 study from Dartmouth University researchers.

“These things are costly and they’re getting worse because of climate change,” said Mankin, a co-author of the study.

The reasons for the economic impact range from diminished employee productivity to heightened utility costs to lost agricultural output, some analysts said.

Berkay Akyapi, a professor of business at the University of Florida and a co-author of the study on lost GDP, pointed to the crop damage caused by a heightened number of heat waves.

Nighttime temperature spikes are especially damaging, Akyapi said, since they deny crops a respite during a time period typically reserved for cooler temperatures. Fewer crops, in turn, threaten to elevate prices as the same number of dollars chase after a smaller supply of goods, he added.

A decline in domestic crop output can also force a given country to increase imports, putting further upward pressure on prices, Akyapi noted.

“If you can’t produce something, you have to import it and that of course raises prices,” he said.

Heat waves also cause higher prices for utilities as demand grows for air conditioning and other power-driven solutions, some analysts said.

The budget woes, in turn, cause a chain reaction, squeezing funds left over for other products and sapping consumer-driven economic activity. Steven Brown, a director of insights and evidence at the Aspen Institute Financial Security Program, told ABC News.

“It results in higher bills for households that are already financially tight or strained,” Brown said. “It causes a spillover in their ability to pay for other things like groceries or rent.”

In 2023, a report issued by a U.S. Senate committee found the negative economic effects from extreme heat are most pronounced in heat-exposed sectors such as agriculture, mining, construction, manufacturing and transportation. The risk owes primarily to lost productivity among workers in such industries, the report said.

“Together, the loss of productivity caused by heat is emerging as one of the biggest economic costs of climate change,” the report added.

To be sure, analysts noted that some cold-weather locations may benefit from heat waves, since higher-than-normal temperatures could improve agricultural output or allow for increased time spent outdoors.

“When you look around the world at places like Canada, Sweden or Norway — they can benefit. Heat waves are kind of good weather there,” Akyapi said.

Adaptive efforts, such as installation of air conditioning, can mitigate some of the negative economic effects, some analysts noted. Some governments are also exploring administrative solutions meant to help fight extreme heat.

Arizona appointed Eugene Livar as its first chief heat officer in 2024, tasking him with oversight of the state’s extreme heat preparedness plan. Democratic lawmakers in Arizona and Nevada introduced a bill in Congress last year that would add extreme heat to the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s list of major disaster qualifying events, unlocking access to federal support.

“Government interventions probably reduce some of the costs associated with these events, despite being costly interventions themselves,” Akyapi said.

Dartmouth’s Mankin said he expects heat waves to remain a feature of everyday life for the foreseeable future as human-caused climate change continues.

“These kinds of heat events are just going to be more commonplace. You’ll just have more days of the year that look like this, particularly when each subsequent year is hotter than the last,” Mankin said.

ABC News’ Kenton Gewecke and Emily Shapiro contributed to this report.

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Business

SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100, clearing way for potential investment influx. Here’s what to know

SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk speaks via video at the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square during the launch of the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

(NEW YORK) — Elon Musk-led rocket and AI company SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, clearing the way for a potential influx of investment as funds pegged to the major index were expected to add the firm.

SpaceX will all but certainly become a part of many individuals’ 401(k) accounts soon. Those accounts often hold index funds, which track indexes like the Nasdaq 100.

Until recently, newly listed companies were barred from major indexes until after an extended waiting period. But the Nasdaq issued a rule change in May permitting “fast entry” to the Nasdaq-100 for some major IPOs. Over the ensuing weeks, some other top exchanges also tweaked their rules.

Entry into the index marked the latest development for SpaceX after a roller coaster in the company’s shares following an initial public offering (IPO) last month. The stock price soared roughly 50% in the initial three days after the public listing on June 12, before shedding just about all of those gains within days.

SpaceX shares dropped nearly 6% in early trading on Tuesday, putting the price at about $151. The SpaceX IPO, the largest ever, opened trading last month at $150 per share.

The IPO made Musk the first trillionaire, vaulting the world’s richest person further ahead of other financial titans. After SpaceX shares tumbled on Tuesday, Musk’s net worth fell to $973 billion, according to Forbes. The second-wealthiest person alive, Google founder Larry Page, holds a net worth of $303 billion, Forbes said.

The IPO pulls in fresh funds for the Texas-based firm, which oversees Musk’s ambitions in the fast-growing but cost-intensive AI industry. The company aims to raise as much as $75 billion from its public listing.

SpaceX builds and operates spacecraft, including thousands of satellites deployed in support of its Starlink satellite internet service. In February, the company merged with xAI, a Musk-led AI company that offers a chatbot in competition with the likes of OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude.

The company’s revenue jumped to $18.7 billion in 2025, soaring 33% compared to the previous year, a financial filing showed. Nearly a quarter of that revenue came from Starlink, which counted millions of subscribers. Still, SpaceX failed to turn a profit, registering a loss of $4.9 billion last year.

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Business

Microsoft is laying off 4,800 workers: ‘AI is changing how work gets done’

A logo sits outside the Microsoft pavilion during the second day of the Mobile World Congress 2015 at the Fira Gran Via complex on March 3, 2015 in Barcelona, Spain. (David Ramos/Getty Images)

(NEW YORK) — Microsoft said on Monday it will lay off 4,800 employees and that the job cuts would be especially pronounced in its Xbox department.

The layoffs will affect 2.1% of Microsoft’s global workforce, Amy Coleman, executive vice president and chief people officer, said in a public memo to employees.

Coleman attributed the layoffs in part to a shakeup in the tech sector wrought by artificial intelligence. None of the terminated roles will be replaced by AI, Coleman noted. At the same time, she acknowledged: “AI is changing how work gets done.”

“Our business is changing because the world around it is changing. The way technology is built, deployed, and used is transforming faster than at any point in my time here,” Coleman said.

In a separate statement, Microsoft said a large share of the job cuts would impact its Xbox department, which oversees the company’s popular video game console.

In all, Xbox would slash 1,600 jobs as part of the layoffs announced on Monday, as well as an additional 1,600 cuts through the end of fiscal year 2027, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma said in a public memo to employees.

“We are beginning the most significant restructure in XBOX history,” Sharma said, adding, “Our business today is not healthy.”

Sharma pointed to weaker-than-expected performance for Xbox’s subscription service, Game Pass, which charges a monthly fee for access to a collection of games. The company faced stiff competition in its efforts to increase output of new games, Sharma added.

“We now find ourselves competing not only with the largest publishers, but also with smaller independent studios,” Sharma said.

Xbox will not cancel any of its first-party, publicly announced games or projects as part of the new plans, Sharma said.

Shares of Microsoft fell about 1% in early trading on Monday.

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Business

Mortgage rates fall to lowest level since May

Crude oil tankers, bulk carriers and vessels sit anchored around Qaboos Port June 22, 2026, in Muscat, Oman. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for the region’s oil and gas. (Elke Scholiers/Getty Images)

(NEW YORK) — Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level since May as negotiations between the United States and Iran ease financial markets.

The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.43%, down from last week’s rate of 6.49%, Freddie Mac data on Thursday showed.

Still, mortgage rates register above their level before the war with Iran. Prior to the Middle East conflict in late February, a 30-year fixed mortgage clocked in at an average just below 6%.

“Rates did drop, which does provide some relief. But they’re still high,” Julia Fonseca, a professor at the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, told ABC News.

A decline in mortgage rates over recent weeks has come in response to a drop in oil prices and Treasury yields, some analysts told ABC News. The shift has partially reversed a trend that took hold after the Iran war broke out.

At that time, mortgage rates surged in response to a jump in U.S. Treasury yields, or the amount paid annually to a holder of government debt. The rise in bond yields is owed to fear of a renewed bout of inflation as oil prices climbed.

Since bonds pay a given investor a fixed amount each year, the specter of inflation risks higher consumer prices that would eat away at those annual payouts. In turn, bonds often become less attractive in response to economic turmoil. When demand falls, bond yields rise.

High bond yields make borrowing more expensive for average Americans, since 10-year Treasury rates influence the rates offered for a variety of loans, including mortgages.

Bond yields eased in recent weeks as negotiations unfolded between the U.S. and Iran, pushing down oil prices and softening inflation expectations, Ken Johnson, a real estate economist at the University of Mississippi, told ABC News. In turn, Johnson said, mortgage rates have fallen.

“The big driver has been the cooling of tensions in the Gulf,” Johnson told ABC News.

Despite the recent drop, mortgage rates remain higher than their pre-war level. Even more, mortgage rates stand well above their level as recently as 2022, when the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage came in below 5%.

Elevated mortgage rates have contributed to a phenomenon known as the “lock-in” effect.

Mortgage rates remain well above the rates enjoyed by most current homeowners, who may be reluctant to put their homes on the market and risk a much higher rate on their next mortgage.

“Rates are still pretty high relative to what they were a few years ago, but every drop in mortgage rates helps. This is not going to go all the way toward unlocking people. We might see this gradual unlocking as time goes by and as rates tick down,” Fonseca said.

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Business

Hiring worse than expected in June amid elevated inflation

HR recruitment manager holding resume in hands while having an interview in a modern office. (Xavier Lorenzo/Getty Images)

(NEW YORK) — Hiring slowed markedly in June, falling short of economists’ expectations and displaying a wobbly labor market amid elevated inflation set off by the Iran war.

The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June, according to the federal government’s monthly jobs report, which marked a decline from 172,000 jobs added in May.

The sluggish pace recorded in June departs from strong performance for the labor market so far in 2026. Employers added a robust average of about 114,000 jobs each month from January to May, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed.

The unemployment rate fell slightly from 4.3% in May to 4.2% in June, the BLS said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.

The professional and business services sector led job gains, adding 36,000 positions in June. Significant job gains also came in healthcare, though the pace of job growth slowed in that sector.

Hiring had proven unexpectedly resilient, despite a rise in costs borne by businesses and shoppers.

The Middle East conflict, which began on Feb. 28, prompted the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global oil supply. The standoff triggered one of the largest oil shocks ever recorded.

The pace of annual inflation stands at 4.2%, clocking in at more than twice the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.

The combination of elevated inflation and a resilient labor market has raised the chances of an interest rate hike, futures markets show, posing a risk for corporations eager to keep borrowing costs relatively low.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh briefly sent stocks tumbling this month during his first press conference atop the central bank. Warsh voiced a commitment to bringing inflation down to the Fed’s desired level.

“Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people,” Warsh told reporters in Washington, D.C. “This committee will deliver price stability.”

Futures markets peg the odds of an interest rate hike in September at about 64%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, a measure of investor sentiment.

To be sure, the path forward for interest rates remains highly uncertain. Oil and gasoline prices have eased in recent weeks in response to negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, offering hope of a cooldown of inflation in the absence of rate increases.

On Wednesday, Warsh weighed in on the bullish side of an ongoing debate among policymakers, investors and the general public about the potential impact of AI on the labor market and wider economy.

The technology could create jobs and boost productivity, strengthening the economy of the U.S. and other nations, according to Warsh.

“This is a big paradigm shift both for the conduct of our policy and for our economies,” Warsh said. “I think the jobs will be greater. Prosperity will be stronger.”

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