Young Democrats reinvigorated by Harris at DNC: ‘It has never felt this exciting’
(CHICAGO) — Several young Democrats said they are embracing the “vibe shift” in the party that they’ve experienced over the last few weeks, feeling newly enlivened at the Democratic National Convention with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket.
“I’ve been around a lot of political things for the past few years, and it has never felt this exciting,” Jonah Simon, 20, told ABC News at the DNC.
Simon said he feels that unlike merely a month ago when President Joe Biden was the nominee, younger voters now have a candidate in Harris they are “proud to get behind, somebody who we can be really excited to rally around.”
For decades, younger voters were a reliable part of the Democratic coalition, including in the 2020 election. But polls leading up to Biden’s departure from the race showed his wide advantage with Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 had diminished.
Liz Benecchi, 22, echoed a refrain heard from Democrats young and old — that while the party respected Biden’s record and decades of service, there was a necessity to turn the page.
“I have so much admiration and so much deep respect for him. I’m going to be honest, I wasn’t as excited about going out on Election Day to vote for President Joe Biden. But it was time for something new and it was time for a change. And I think everyone here is really fired up,” said Benecchi.
Benecchi pointed to the Harris campaign’s fresh embrace of social media, especially TikTok, leaning into memes like “brat summer” and Harris’ viral “coconut tree” moment, as a more earnest way to communicate with the party’s youngest flank.
“I have so many friends that want to get engaged. They want to volunteer, they want to canvass, they want to be a part of it,” Benecchi said.
That kind of enthusiasm can’t exist in a vacuum — and Lorenzo Ruiz, 20, said he feels like the energy transfer to get-out-the-vote mobilization is kicking off in earnest now.
“We’re moving on the right path. The trajectory feels like it’s toward victory, and we’re really seeing people lock in and engage. And that’s what we need. We need people excited. We need them happy and joyful. And this is a joyous campaign. And, that’s the campaign that we’ve been building and that we as a group, people on the campaign, people working grassroots, will continue to build. And, I think we’re going to win this thing,” Ruiz said.
This sort of enthusiasm is reflected in the newest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, with the data showing an 18-point swing from Biden (at +2) to Harris (at +20) with people under 40.
But her support from the younger generation is not guaranteed — especially as young progressives remain heavily critical of Biden’s (and Harris’) position on Israel.
Jasmine Wynn, 19, one of such progressives, still plans on voting for Harris regardless. And while she acknowledges that others on the left may not follow suit, Wynn supposes that there’s a practical argument to be made to persuade them.
“I think a lot of young left, especially my friends, initially they were reluctant to vote for Harris or any kind of like Democratic ticket because of kind of what they’ve done so far in Gaza. But I think there’s kind of a shift in terms of, I think, approaching electoral politics in a very pragmatic sense as opposed to an idealistic sense,” said Wynn.
Americans broadly pick Kamala Harris as the winner of last week’s widely watched presidential debate – yet neither she nor Donald Trump moved the needle in terms of trust on the issues, ratings of the candidates’ personal attributes or vote preferences in the 2024 election.
Even Taylor Swift shows little impact: Just 6% in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll say the pop star singer-songwriter’s endorsement of Harris makes them more likely to vote for her; 13%, instead, say it makes them less likely to support her, with 81% saying it makes no difference. Those responding negatively are overwhelmingly Trump supporters, according to the poll.
Americans by 58-36% say Harris won the debate – a reversal from the Biden-Trump match in June, which Trump was seen as winning by 66-28%. Biden’s performance intensified questions about his cognitive health, precipitating his departure from the race.
The poll of 3,276 adults, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos, finds that Harris did firm up some of her personal appeal: Thirty-seven percent say the debate made them feel more favorably toward her, vs. 23% less favorably. There was no such benefit for Trump: People by nearly 2-1 say the debate made them see him less favorably.
The benefit for Harris occurred almost exclusively in her base, potentially helping her turnout efforts. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents say the debate made them see her more favorably. Only half as many Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents, 34%, say the debate made them see Trump more favorably. One factor may be that Harris, a walk-on candidate, has had less public exposure until now.
The poll also finds a slight dip in the share of Trump supporters who back him strongly – 56%, vs. 60% at the end of August. Sixty-two percent of Harris’ supporters now are strongly behind her, the first meaningful difference in strong support between the two.
That said, Trump shows an advantage in another gauge: while 42% call him too conservative, 47% call Harris too liberal, one of his debate themes.
Preferences
Vote preferences haven’t moved meaningfully. This poll finds the race at 51-46%, Harris-Trump, among all adults; 51-47% among registered voters; and 52-46% among likely voters. Each is within a percentage point of its pre-debate level in ABC/Ipsos polling.
Results are essentially identical when including third-party or Independent candidates Chase Oliver, Jill Stein and Cornel West; they get at most 1% support apiece. State-to-state ballot access for these candidates is a work in progress; ABC News estimates that as of now Oliver likely is on the ballot in about 36 states, Stein in about 27 and West in about 15.
It’s important to note that this poll measures preferences nationally, an effort to better understand how all Americans are coming to their choices in the presidential election. It doesn’t assess the contest at the state level, which determines the winner of the Electoral College.
The absence of movement in vote preferences, despite a 22-point tilt to Harris as having won the debate, marks the sharply polarized nature of the electorate. Almost everyone has a preference between Harris or Trump, and among those who do, few say they’d even consider the other. This is especially true among likely voters, with just 3% potentially persuadable to switch.
Another result also shows the entrenched divisions in attitudes. Seventy-three percent of Trump’s supporters say they’ve backed him all year. Of the rest, 17% were undecided at some point but settled on Trump; just 9% moved to Trump from another candidate – mostly, other Republicans or the former Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Barely 2% of Trump’s supporters came to him after previously preferring Harris or Biden.
It’s similar on Harris’ side of the ledger. Two-thirds of her supporters say they’ve been with her since she got into the race. A quarter were undecided at some point. Just 2% of Harris supporters have moved to her from Trump.
Movable voters can matter – as everyone matters – in a tight race. But these results suggest that the biggest pickings for Trump and Harris alike are in motivating turnout among their existing support groups.
Groups
Harris leads Trump by nine points among women while running virtually even with him among men, and by a slight nine points among 18- to 29-year-olds, entirely due to her support from women that age. She improves among young adults who are more likely to vote.
While younger women are important to Harris, the Swift endorsement doesn’t show a positive impact even in this group. Eight percent of women younger than 30 say the endorsement makes them more likely to support Harris, while 13% say it makes them less likely to do so. Most, 78%, say it makes no difference.
Her position among suburban women, an often-watched group, is similar to her support among women overall. More tellingly, she’s +12 points among independents, often a swing voter group in presidential elections.
Trump, for his part, leads by a vast 79-18% among white evangelical Protestants, with this core GOP group seemingly unfazed by his layered position on abortion. He’s roughly on par with past performance, having won white evangelical Protestants by 74-25% in 2020 and 81-16% in 2016.
In other groups, Trump leads by 12 points among white people, growing to 28 points among those who don’t have a four-year college degree, a mainstay of his support. Despite suggestions that he’s denigrated the military, he leads by 29 points among veterans, 63-34%.
Voters
Many of these results – but not all – hold steady when moving from the general public (relevant because there’s still time to register) to registered voters and then to likely voters. But there are a few notable exceptions.
Harris advances from +9 points among all adults aged 18-29 to +19 points among those identified as likely voters. This is fueled by young women, a cornerstone group in her campaign: Harris goes from +23 points among all women under 30 to +38 points among those likely to vote.
There’s a stark contrast with men aged 18-29 who are likely to vote: Just 51% in this group back Harris, with virtually as many, 48%, for Trump.
Trump, for his part, remains closer than usual to Harris among Hispanic people, now trailing her by 17 points among those who are likely voters. That’s better than usual for Trump compared with past elections: Biden won Hispanic people by 33 points in 2020; Hillary Clinton won them by 40 points in 2016, per ABC News exit polls.
Issues and attributes
While overall vote preferences are stable, so are views on issues and attributes. The economy and inflation continue to dominate as the top issues in the election, and Trump leads by 7 points in trust to handle each of them.
In the next most important issues, Harris responds with a 7-point lead on “protecting American democracy” and a 9-point lead on handling health care. The two remain evenly matched on crime and safety.
It’s clear, too, why Trump keeps doubling down on immigration as an issue: He leads Harris by 10 points in trust to handle it. She leads him by 14 points on abortion and by 16 points on handling race relations, although both rate lower in importance.
There are differences among groups in issue importance. In notable gender gaps, women are 14 points more apt than men to cite abortion as a top issue in their vote, 68% vs. 54% – a difference that holds regardless of age. Women also are 11 points more likely than men to cite health care as a top issue, 82 vs. 71%. Still, the economy and inflation top the issues list among women and men alike.
Harris’ best results vs. Trump continue to be on personal attributes, explaining her effort to lean in on this domain. She leads him by 32 points in having the physical health it takes to serve effectively, 17 points in honesty and trustworthiness, 10 points in mental sharpness, 10 points in understanding the problems of people like you and 7 points in better representing your personal values. All, again, are essentially the same as they were before the debate.
Overall favorability also is essentially unchanged: Forty-seven percent have a favorable impression of Harris, vs. 35% for Trump. Still, they’re close in being seen as qualified for office – Harris by 53%, Trump by 49%. The difference widens, however, among independents; 56% see Harris as qualified vs. 48% who say the same of Trump.
Debate
Lastly, on the debate, it’s notable that 95% of Democrats say Harris won, while fewer Republicans, 75%, say Trump won. (Among independents, 61% pick Harris.) Similarly, among Trump’s own supporters, 78% say he won the debate, while among people backing Harris, 97% give her the win. (These results include people who initially called the debate a tie, then leaned toward Harris or Trump as the winner.)
While 58% overall say Harris won, this rises to 64% of those who watched all or some of the debate. That reflects the fact that Harris supporters are 8 points more likely than Trump supporters to have watched. Harris supporters are even more apt to have read, watched or listened to follow-up news coverage or commentary about the debate – 75% have done so, vs. 59% of those who support Trump.
Methodology
This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Sept. 11-13, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 3,276 adults. Partisan divisions are 29-29-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 2 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sample sizes are 2,772 for registered voters and 2,196 for likely voters, with a 2-point error margin for each. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on the ABC News survey methodology here.
(WASHINGTON) — Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to soon face her first post-convention test when she sits for a formal interview — something she told reporters this month she planned to do by the end of August, but has yet to announce.
With an absence of plans for any such sit-down, Republican critics have accused her of dodging the press.
“She refuses to do any interviews or press conferences, almost 30 days now, she has not done an interview,” former President Donald Trump said of Harris at a North Carolina event earlier this month. “You know why she hasn’t done an interview? Because she’s not smart. She’s not intelligent.”
His campaign has said Harris is trying to “duck and hide” from the news media.
The lack of a media interview has yet to hurt Harris, whose poll number are outpacing those of President Joe Biden when he was atop the Democratic ticket, according to 538’s national polling average. As of Tuesday, Harris is polling ahead of Trump, 47.2% to 43.6%; when Biden left the race, he was polling at 40.2% compared to Trump’s 43.5%, according to 538’s polling average.
Harris has also stirred an enthusiasm from Democrats that had been absent most of the campaign cycle — and is riding a high following last week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Moreover, she chose a running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whose rural background has helped the ticket craft a message Democrats have said they believe will make inroads with voters in conservative parts of the country.
All the while, Trump has seemed to abandon the discipline Republicans had lauded him for this summer. Recently, he has made false claims about the crowd size at a Harris rally and appeared to forget to mention a policy proposal he had been slated to unveil at an event in Michigan.
Democrats have cautioned that Harris has several hurdles to clear in the coming weeks.
One of those hurdles is the pending media interview, where Harris would likely have to defend the decisions of the Biden administration and specify some of her policy stances.
On Monday, Trump sought to spotlight Harris’ connection to the Biden administration’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, laying wreaths in Arlington National Cemetery to commemorate the third anniversary of the suicide bombing that killed 13 U.S. service members.
“Caused by Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, the humiliation in Afghanistan set off the collapse of American credibility and respect all around the world,” Trump claimed when he spoke to National Guardsmen at a Detroit event later Monday.
Harris is also likely to be pressed on how much she knew about Biden’s capacities prior to the June 27 debate. That night, she urged Americans to judge Biden not on the “90 minutes” on stage but the “three-and-a-half years of performance.”
Yet, that same debate performance set in motion a weekslong effort by top Democrats to nudge Biden from the race.
Few had a better understanding of what Biden was like behind the scenes than Harris, his No. 2, and an interviewer would likely challenge her about what she witnessed in private.
Harris would surely be asked about the war in Gaza. She said recently, “We need a cease-fire,” but is a member of an administration that has yet to help broker one.
The situation at the southern border would likely be another topic an interviewer would press Harris on. Republicans have linked her to an increase in unauthorized border crossings earlier in Biden’s term, misleadingly dubbing her the “border czar.”
An interviewer might also ask Harris to respond to the criticism of her recently unveiled economic plan, in which she called for an end to grocery “price-gouging,” prompting accusations by some Republicans that she wants “communist price controls.”
Harris travels this week to south Georgia, where she will embark on a bus tour and hold a rally in Savannah, Georgia.
Republican Sen. Tom Cotton, an ally of Donald Trump, said the presidential race will be a close one and the former president will put in the work to win in November.
When pressed by “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl on whether or not Trump has to pivot his messaging to focus more on Vice President Kamala Harris’ policies, Cotton replied that Trump’s “campaign has known all along, and they’ve said all along that this race is going to be a close race,” though Trump himself has also predicted a wide margin of victory for himself.
“We know the race will probably come down to a few hundred thousand votes in a few states. President Trump has been campaigning hard and vigorously now for months. Obviously, that’s going to increase in its pace as we get closer to the election, and President Trump is going to draw a sharp contrast with Kamala Harris,” Cotton said.
Cotton’s remarks come as Republicans urge Trump to focus more on his messaging. While he has consistently noted voters’ frustrations on inflation and immigration, he has also thrown personal jabs that some in his party consider distractions, including saying he’s better looking than Harris.
The lack of messaging discipline comes as polling shows Harris significantly improving on President Joe Biden’s standing nationally and in key swing states. 538’s national polling average now shows Harris up by 3.6 points nationally.
Republicans are also frustrated by what they claim is a lack of policy transparency by Harris.
The vice president recently released details of her economic plan, including fighting price gouging and expanding assistance for new parents and first-time homebuyers. She has not said much else, aside from disavowing policies she proposed in 2020 like banning fracking.
“[S]he’s taking these efforts not to change her positions, but to hide her positions. Jon, the American people are totally justified to conclude that Kamala Harris is a dangerous San Francisco liberal based on what she campaigned on the last time she ran for president and what this administration has done the last four years,” Cotton said.
“If she has changed her position, she owes it to the American people to come out and say to her own words when she changed and why she changed,” he added.
Cotton also dismissed any momentum Harris could have coming out of the Democrats’ convention in Chicago, which included several Republican supporters who cast Trump as a threat to democracy.
“Well, in every election Jon, you have some members of one party endorsing the candidate of the other party. That’s a very traditional aspect of American politics,” Cotton said. “I mean, look at what just happened this week. The Democratic Party under Kamala Harris has gone so far to the left that you actually had a Kennedy endorse a Republican,” Cotton said, referring to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent endorsement of Trump.